نشریه آینده پژوهی ایران
سال پنجم شماره 1 (بهار و تابستان 1399)

One of the consequences of globalization is the emergence of powerful regional economies, some of which have greater regional GDP than most countries. Therefore, the concept of regional competitiveness has become an important concept through which countries have a clear set of policies to support the development of their regions. Therefore, the present study seeks to introduce Roadmap as a suitable method for setting regional planning in order to regional development.

A case study strategy has been used in this paper. The case for analysis is Illinois in the United States which delineating a science and technology roadmap for its regional planning. Based on benchmarking, the paper provides an appropriate research approach to set science and technology planning at the regional level in Iran.

The most important finding of the study is to provide a suitable roadmap for regional science and technology preparation in order to formulate appropriate regional development plans.

Considering the lack of a suitable method for prioritizing science and technology issues at the regional level in Iran, this study seeks to present and propose a suitable method, therefore, by examining the Illinois prioritization experience at first, Regional Roadmap based on science and technology has introduced as a tool for prioritizing regional science and technology. Then in future studies, government departments will be able to formulate effective regional programs in order to help to develop regions in terms of technological, innovational and economic views.

 Expansion of the internationalexchange and sharing knowledge and scientific achievements has a determinantrole in science and technology(S&T) development in the world. During lasttwo decades investment in high technology has turned into one of the mainS&T policy priorities in Iran national scientific blueprints. Nano-technologydevelopment is one of the priorities that government concentrates on it andmakes a lot of investment in this field. In national strategy plan achievingworld 15th place in nano-technology has been set as a big picture. The purpose ofthis paper is critical analysis of nanotechnology development in Iran incompliance with the big picture. The main question is how internationalizationis shaping current situation and alternative futures for nanotechnology inIran? The paper’s hypothesis: internationalization of knowledge and technologyhas critical and decisive role in nanotechnology development and itsdistinction inside the country. Assumption of this paper is: internationalization and international scientific collaboration is intrinsiccondition for science and technology development.

Documentary research, trendanalysis and scenario planning are used in this paper.

The findings are extraction of four scenarios beforeNano-technology development in Iran including continued as usual, collapse, revival, and transformation.

Publishing internationaljournal paper in field of nanoscience and technology converts into national distinction of nanotechnologydevelopment in Iran; circumscribing of internationalization of nano-technologyto international journal paper; necessity of changing the role of state fromcustodian and demiurge to facilitator and husbandry role; enhancingparticipation of scientific community in determining strategies and policiesfor nano-technology development in country are among the important results ofthe research.

The purpose of this study was to investigate and analyze the most important factors affecting the failure of new cities in Iran with emphasis on the Sadra City and with a foresight approach.

The type of research is based on the purpose of applying a combination of documentary and survey methods in the exploration and based on a Foresight approach and scenario that has been implemented using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The method of data collection is library and field studies. Structural analysis, scenario analysis and Delphi technique have been used in this research. The software used in this study is the Scenario Wizard and Mic Mac software.

Based on structural analysis results, among the 22 indicators studied, 10 indicators were selected as the most important indicators affecting the failure of new cities in Iran.Among the 10 key indicators affecting the system, four indicators are from the group of technical-engineering variables, three indicators from the group of social variables, two indicators from the group of managerial variables and one index from the group of economic variables, the results show a significant difference between technical-engineering variables. And it has a social with two other variables.

The final results also identified three scenario groups including scenarios with favorable conditions, based on competitiveness and program orientation, maintaining the status quo and critical and unfavorable conditions in improving the situation of new towns.

Effective supply chain plays a significant role in the production and distribution of petroleum and petrochemical products in the country. This study seeks to identify key factors and plausible scenarios for the future supply chain of the oil industry.

This research is applied from the point of view of orientation and it is positivist from philosophical point of view and it is a multiple research.For this purpose, the key factors affecting the future of the oil supply chain were identified by reviewing the literature and interviewing the experts and then using these binomial tests were screened. Two GBN and Dematel techniques were used to select the final key forces. The probable scenario was chosen with one of the decision making techniques.

Using GBN and DEMATEL techniques, two key forces of external sanctions and macroeconomic policies related to strengthening were selected for mapping the scenarios. Based on these two key forces, the four scenarios of closed supply chain, fragile supply chain, robust supply chain and dynamic supply chain were developed. Each of these scenarios represents a situation for the future of oil supply chain. According to the criteria of conformity with internal trends, conformity with international trends, probability based on reality, and consistency with current data, closed supply chain scenario was selected as the most probable scenario.

Dynamic supply chain shows the best situation in terms of reducing external sanctions and appropriate reinforcement policies and on the other hand, the closed supply chain describes an isolated and vulnerable system to threats.

Entrepreneurs who fail have different functions. Some grieve and its aftermath is liberated and entrepreneurial re- emergence, others plunge into their grief and choose another path. What happens to these entrepreneurs after they fail? Why some of them can recover and some cannot? This study attempts to refine the studies and develop a deep understanding of what entrepreneurs experience after failure and analyze the post-failure model for future mapping.

In this research, we used a meta-synthesis as a new approach in qualitative studies in order to integrate studies on business failure to generate comprehensive and interpretive findings. First, we present the possible and probable future prospects for the entrepreneur after experiencing failure. Then, the desired future image of the entrepreneur after the failure is drawn and its model is written.

Four related areas in post-failure life including consequences, learning, recovery and entrepreneurial re-emergence were identified and led to the development of a post-failure life model. Findings indicate the influence of individual and environmental factors on the celerity of recovery and quality of learning.

According to the research results, it is necessary to provide the obligatory training for entrepreneurs in different periods to strengthen the sense-making of the concept of failure and its recognition as an acceptable event with entrepreneurship, as well as the development of necessary individual skills to learn about phenomena and recover from events should be on the agenda of trustees.

The "minority" has evolved in form and content since it was first introduced in the Treaty of Augsburg in 1555. After the "religious minority", the "ethnic minority" entered international law with the Vienna Document of 1815, the "linguistic minority" with the decision of the Permanent Court of 1935 and with the ratification of Article 27 of the 1966 Covenant and the "national minority" with the 1992 Declaration. The minority has evolved conceptually and formally, especially the condition of citizenship.The purpose of this paper is to study the future evolution of the concept of minority in international law.

By accepting the principles of descriptive and analytical methods, the research uses the interrogative strategy and the method of "extension of the present to the future", which is one of the methods of futures studies.

Relying on the theory of multiculturalism, the possible futures of minority evolution are to reduce the role of the four traditional elements of religion, ethnicity, language, and national origin in identifying minorities and to increase the role of "distinction in habits, beliefs, and behaviors."

The study of the Propellants shows that in the "probable future", there is activism in Western countries for the entry of new groups such as misguided sects and homosexuals into the legal circle of minorities. To prevent this process contrary to "public order", the legal cooperation of the member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, especially in the "Human Rights Committee" and the "Forum on Minority Issues" is necessary.

 The main purpose of this article is to examine the scenarios facing the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the withdrawal of the United States from JCPOA. The authors try to analyze each of the scenarios using theoretical approaches in international relations in order to examine the best scenario for the future of JCPOA.

The present research method is futuristic scenario-making, which is in the line with analytical and quasi-experimental studies. The main question of the present study is that among the scenarios of leaving JCPOA, negotiating with the United States to reconsider nuclear agreement, staying or returning the United States to JCPOA, which is possible, probable, justified and desirable?

The findings of this study include: negotiations with the United States on the revision of the JCPOA based on the Grossian view as the possible scenario; staying in JCPOA based on Kant's view as the probable scenario; gradual exit from JCPOA based on Hobbes's view as the justified scenario; and the return of the United States to the JCPOA and the fulfillment of Europe's economic and banking obligations based on the perspective of neo-functionalism as the desired scenario.   

Finally, it can be concluded that, given the US withdrawal, the justified scenario enjoys more utility; Going through gradual exit from JCPOA, I.R. Iran can give the European Union and the United States the opportunity to fulfill their obligations and return to JCPOA, on the one hand, and can restart its nuclear facilities with the least pressure, on the other hand.

The purpose of this study is to identify the effective indicators of good urban governance, livability, banking and competitiveness in urban development strategy and increase the resilience of Kish Island with empowerment approach, based on which one of the economic infrastructure, social, managerial, physical needs to increase resilience and achieve empowerment of managers and citizens in the face of economic, social and environmental crises.

The research method is based on descriptive-analytical methods and is applied in terms of the purpose. The results obtained from the questionnaires were calculated using SPSS software and Chi-square test and T-sample. In order to evaluate and compare the resilience of urban development strategy indicators in the dimensions of good urban governance, banking, viability and competitiveness, ANOVA test and structural equation modeling were performed with PLS and Micmac software and SOAR strategic model for development strategy and describes the strengths, opportunities, ideals, and outcomes used in empowerment.

The results show that the indicators of Kish Island urban development strategy in terms of viability are in a better position than other indicators and the indicators of good urban governance, banking and competitiveness are not in a favorable position.

Therefore, it can be said that the respondents believe that all indicators of Kish Island urban development strategy are not at the desired level, in other words, Kish is still livable, but not in a good managerial and economic situation.

The purpose of this study is applying Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to estimate technical coefficients of activities, which is suitable for foresight regional economy index by employing experts’ opinion. Regional economic foresight requires appraising all dimensions of development indices. World complex conditions demand adequate information and tools to rational development planning. In situation that rapid changes in political and social economic structure happen in short term, applying retrospective and static tools create enormous error on foresight.

This research has applied mixed (qualitative and quantitative) method. In this regards, technical coefficient table for Qazvin was developed through regular meeting with related administrations and stakeholder organizations in combination with country and provincial data.

The research outcomes pointed out that applying AHP will reduce costs and time in compare with existing methods.

Economic analyses based on input- output table have many benefits which make attraction for researchers, especially on general equilibrium model. In the other hand, those table will not afford in provincial level as preparing data and information for them is cost and time consuming. This research has been solve that problem

The purpose of this paper is to identify and redefine the complexity drivers of state organizations and in the form of model of the complexity drivers of governmental organizations.

  In this study, Grounded Theory Method (GT), which emphasizes the use of data analysis steps through open coding, axial coding and selective coding is used. The Grounded Theory Method is a method of qualitative research in which the theory of development is developed using a class of data. Also to validate the original model, the Content Validity Ratio (CVR) method was used.

After the axial coding, the number of 68 categories of the complexity drivers of governmental organizations were identified and extracted; After the validation of the survey, this number was reduced to 54 drivers to organizational complexity.

Based on the findings of the present study, the model of organizational complexity drivers in the Iranian public sector is characterized by looking at redefining of organizational complexity that is formed by core theories and focal categories, including 11 main categories and 54 categories.

Foresight evaluation is a challenging task. In fact, this essay is mainly focused on "how to sketch out a dynamic and integration model of foresight by using a systematic approach".

This study is a qualitative research and uses the Meta-synthesis method (Sandelowski & Barroso model); Articles published in the field of foresight evaluation in journals and international conferences held in Iran (1385-1396 Persian calendar) and in other countries (2000-2017 A.D.) are reviewed. In order to formulate the model 37 articles were selected by using Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) scale. Finally, to measure the validity of the model Kappa index was calculated by using the SPPSS software. Since the Kapa index is less than 0.05, it is a significance level. Taking this into account, the assumption reflecting the independence hypothesis of the extracted codes is rejected and the correlation is proved. The calculated value for Kapa index is tantamount to 0.7477 which doesn’t vary from the internationally recognized value.

The model is presented in the format of a dynamic model of integrated evaluation of foresight which consists of two levels: The first level which shapes the main part of the model, explains the mechanism of integration and dynamics in the evaluation of objectives, outcomes and impacts of foresight. The second level, putting a systematic approach into work, dividers the foresight evaluation into three distinct stages: (1) Pre-evaluation (input),(2)Evaluation(process) and(3)Post- evaluation(output).

According to the literature review, no comprehensive and integrated study has been done so far on the Foresight evaluation. The proposed model is the first foresight evaluation comprehensive model. Having applied a systematic approach, this model provides a dynamic and integrated evaluation of foresight.

The present study aims to clarify the indices of Iranian national identity as well as the indices in contrast with them in order to define the big picture of Iranian future national identity from the surface level to the deepest levels.

Having conducted interview and coding and using them as the input for causal layered analysis, the present study seeks to describe the reasons and factors of cyber security threats for national Identity of Islamic Republic of Iran from surface to deep layers.

Iranians’ national identity has been threatened in different layers. Although that threat is to some degree caused by weak political and economic systems, the west taking advantage of its soft power against Iran has strengthened that threat at the level of worldview and metaphor leading the users to contempt their country and underestimating its success and development as well as believing whatever content produced and released by the west.

Iranian national identity in cyberspace is presented by 11 defining indices and 15 contradictory indices. The contradictory ones in systems layer outnumber the defining ones which means critical attention when formulating strategies to strengthen Iranian national identity in cyberspace.