نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 17 (تابستان 1399)

Due to the constraints that impede their inherent missions, the defense industry needs to seek a change of procedure to maintain the level of their products to meet their customers' needs One of these is to use a networking strategy.This study uses a basic model to consider supply chain concepts and dealership theory It intends to produce the product that customers want by using capabilities beyond the organizational boundary and representative network In this approach, the goal is not to reduce costs, but to increase the utility of the agent-owner-customer relationship.The proposed model is one of a variety of multi-purpose decision making models and aims to achieve optimal response, owner desirability and average agency desirability.The model is solved using weighted objective functions and a Pareto solution set. Then, using future research techniques, the variables affecting the organization and states of uncertainty of each variable are identified These variables include the amount of private equity investment, boom and bust, the prevalence of outsourcing, inflation and economic sanctions.According to the survey, the most important in future policy making are two variables of outsourcing activities and amount of private sector investment from the Pareto Answer Set, the answer is chosen as the final answer, which, by increasing the volume of outsourcing in the future, will create a powerful structure for managing outsourced activities and oversight of contractors and on the other hand, given the increased private sector investment in industries. Defensively,organization eliminates the need for proper oversight of the performance of this departmen

Surprise prevention is one of the essential and critical functions of the Future Studies and focusing on the detection and analysis of Weak Signal(s) can effectively help us reach this important goal. Search results in Iranian databases SID and Irandoc by use of weak signal(s) and related terms, clearly show that weak signals and it's conceptual-structural aspects and importance, position and functions have been seriously neglected by Iranian futurists and researchers. Therefore, this paper, parallel to examining the conceptual scope of the weak signals term, explains the conceptual and functional aspects, importance and position of weak Signals. Based on the documentary research method and referring to researches and studies conducted in the futures research field, this study examines the conceptual aspects of weak signals. It uses the Scientometrics analysis method and based on search results in Sciencedirect database try to clarify and define the position of weak signals concept in the recent research projects and activities in futures research area. In this paper, some common ambiguities in the futures research works in terms of process approach and methodology have been discussed. Some technical points on how to advance a futures research by focusing on the process approach and applying the concept of weak signals, have also been summarized.

The entrepreneurship process begins with identifying opportunities. Understanding the process of identifying future opportunities with the help of foresight is especially important for IT businesses. The sequential exploratory mixed method research (quantitative-qualitative) took place. The first part of the research is a systematic review of articles related to identifying opportunities and interviewing entrepreneurship and futures studies experts. Opportunity identification steps use 17 methods in three dimensions: perception, prediction, and expansion. Then, by using the SPSS24 software and analyzing the collected questionnaires, the dimensions of the framework were confirmed. The results of factor analysis revealed that the steps of foresight (input-analysis-output) are equal to the steps of opportunity identification. Finally, using the first phase of the framework (environmental analysis), they were initially identified by rating the reports on digital health technology trends for the military and their main ones were ranked so the three trends in telemedicine, patient-centered care and wearable technologies will be the most important trends over the next five years.

The security of countries is heavily dependent on public welfare provision. The role of social security is very important in providing the future-centered security given a wise view of passive defense. In other words, the achievement of this future without a desired scenario and imagination is almost impossible. The purpose of this research was to explain the scenarios onward the Social Security Organization of Iran through semi-structured interviews with experts and analyze the collected data using a 12-key factor thematic analysis technique affecting the future of this organization. The Peter Schwartz model was used to determine the future scenarios of the Social Security Organization of Iran based on the ranking of key factors. Then, the drivers were identified based on the importance and the uncertainty was set by the experts. Finally, the two factors of the degree of attention and use of management styles, and Apoliticism of the Social Security Organization gained higher ranks. The four scenarios of the Social Security Organization were set as an intelligent, dynamic, recoiled-oriented, and fragile organization being placed in the axes of formation basis (dual-axis) matrix. Meanwhile, the only scenario of the organization is the intelligent organization, which can, like two wings, cause mutation in the Social Security Organization by avoiding the Apoliticism of the organization, policies, and using management systems. In contrast, the scenario of a dynamic organization, to some extent, and the two scenarios of a recoiled-oriented and a fragile organization can cause a serious challenge towards the social security system.

The importance of the US role in the Iranian nuclear case from the beginning made the United States the main party against Iran. the other parties did not completely their obligations After the US withdrew from the nuclear deal. So the future of the Iran nuclear deal depends on the outcome of the US presidential election in November 2020. by given to The difference of Trump and Biden's positions, it is necessary to evaluate the future of Iran nuclear deal. Each actor can choose from three types of action in relation to the nuclear deal, including full compliance, reduction of commitments or withdrawal. In this article, the lamp method attributed to Dr. Lockwood was used. This method evaluates the possibility of alternative futures. Using the views of numbers of elites with knowledge or experience in the field of foreign policy showed that probable hypothesis if Trump wins, is that current situation will continue. If Biden wins, the probable hypothesis is a limited and temporary return of the US to the nuclear deal to force Iran to start regional negotiations.

I In recent years, there has been a serious need to understand the effects of emerging information technologies with a focus on artificial intelligence and the Internet in organizations. Therefore, the aim of this research is to identify and rank the various components of these emerging information technologies in the defense-military field. The research method is qualitative and based on Delphi. Initially, with the exploratory study of the new literature of the world's information technology in the military field, 23 emerging information technologies were provided to 9 members of the Delphi panel of AJA experts as the primary questionnaire. At this stage, 4 new technologies were introduced and one technology was eliminated. In the second phase of Delphi and Consensus of Experts, 26 effective emerging information technologies in the defense sector were identified and ranked through the Kendall test. In the third stage, experts were asked to determine the future ownership of these technologies by the Iranian defense sector in three periods: imitation of technology, adaptation to technology, and mastery of technology. According to the research findings, it takes 4, 7, and 13 years to imitate, adapt, and master technology, respectively. In the final stage, according to experts, these technologies were classified in terms of application in three categories: technical, tactical and strategic. Theoretical assistance of the article is the identification and classification of 26 emerging information technologies in two dimensions of technology acquisition and the type of application of technology in the defense sector.