نشریه اقتصاد دفاع و توسعه پایدار
پیاپی 16 (تابستان 1399)

The defense sector in any country is one of the strategic sectors of that country that plays an important role in creating internal and external security and directly and indirectly affects economic growth through various channels. Iran's position in the sensitive and strategic position of the Middle East and facing the security threats of foreign countries, has led to a significant share of public sector spending to the defense sector. In this regard, the main purpose of this study is to estimate the direct, indirect and total effect of defense expenditures on Iran's economic growth during the period 1989-2018. For this purpose, a model of simultaneous equation system is used and the three-stage least squares method (3SLS) is selected as the appropriate method for estimating it. The results of model estimation show that the direct effect of defense spending on economic growth is positive; In such a way that with a one percent increase in the country's defense burden, economic growth will directly increase by about 0.17 percent. In contrast, the indirect effect of defense spending on savings and trade balance is negative and significant. Estimation the total defense spending effect on economic growth also shows that with a one percent increase in the share of defense spending in GDP, the country's economic growth decreases by about 0.09 percent.

Every year, a large number of young men in our country, Iran, are obliged to go on public service. These people are mostly between the ages of 18 and 28 and have higher education. Obviously, the withdrawal of such a large number of the labor force from the production for the military has a great cost for our economy. However, for various reasons, there is not much research that can provide us with a quantitative assessment of this cost. This study aims to use the method of Operation Research and more precisely through Dual Matrices in Linear Programming to provide a model to determine ​​the Opportunity Cost of manpower drafted for the public service in Iran. All research data are based on the Iranian statistics of 2015. The statistical population of the study is 400,000 conscripts. The focus of this research is to extract the model on the separation of academic degrees and industrial subdivisions with ISIC classification. In advance, according to the few available statistics, the model was solved. According to the research findings, the opportunity cost for public service of men is equal to 46.70% of the Value-Added of the industry sector in 2015. This number is equivalent to the economic cost that our country will incur if the enlisted population is sent to the public service, or in other words, the same amount of opportunity is lost. Besides, in a number of scenarios, the other possibility of military service human source assessment is also discussed.

As of world Bank's methodology, the four most important areas in building a knowledge based economy are: institutional economy, education and human resources, innovation and finally information and communication infrastructures.In this concept the defense industry is no different than the other sectors since it is one of the most active sectors of the economy.Some experts believe the institutional regime and economic incentives are more effective in comparison to the other factors when it comes to knowledge based economy.In the defense industry - which is usually a pioneer in production of science and innovation- the institutional regime can play an even more important role. Thus in this research we want to first identify the effective areas in the concept of the knowledge based economy and then discuss the important components of the institutional regime and economic incentives wich can affect the defense industry as well.In doing so, we use 73 other experts opinions by designing a survey and then classified the most important elements by means of non-parametric statiscal method.Finally our results have shown that defense based exports, private sector investment in the defense industry and commercializing the results of the research and development in this field are the most important and most effective elements in the field of institutional economics and economic motivation respectively.

Makran beaches in the south-east of the country have been the focus of attention of our government and armed forces in recent years. Access to free waters and expanding trade with regional and trans-regional countries are areas of economic and developmental attention to these shores; from a defense and military point of view, Makran has many advantages that could present Iran as a trans-regional power. The presence of a strategic navy on the Makran coast is the most obvious reason for the fact that Iran's strategic horizons are expanding to use its capabilities to create a stronger naval force to increase its influence in open waters. The Islamic Republic of Iran, of course, understands the strategic importance of the West and East as highways, and is aware that it is in these areas that it is in possession of international oil pipelines. Iran's maritime strategy continues to evolve. The purpose of the present study is to present a model of economic development of the coasts of the coasts with social and security considerations in mind. For this purpose, Delphi method identified 4 main and key structures (economic, institutional, socio-cultural, strategic and geopolitical) that each of these structures include components that include all the components of using guidelines. Supreme leadership, development of transport infrastructure; utilization of local and local resources and resources; bringing informal institutions to the region with economic development goals and activating fisheries and aquaculture capacities in the Makran region. The degree is more important.

Recently the improvement of new energy technologies, the importance of environmental considerations, the stimulation of economy and creation of new industries and jobs, have led to the fact that industrialized and developing countries, increase the share of these resources in their development plans. Meanwhile, Iran, as a country with the world’s largest total oil and gas resources, should be more aware of trends in the energy sector and the penetration of renewables in the market; to promote its energy security and subsequent national security.Therefore, this research aims to investigate the role of renewables in the global energy market and provide strategies in order to improve the energy security of Iran; relying on principles of futurology, scenario-based planning, and applying the GBN method. The GBN method provides several reasonable, but a challenging framework for a particular method by developing a scenario matrix. So, three different scenarios have been designed; in the first scenario, market forces, and technology, in the second one policies against climate change and in the third one geopolitical competitions and tensions are considered as the main drivers of the energy sector. In the end, according to the national strategic energy document, strategies to improve the energy security of Iran have been proposed in each scenario. Also in order to increase the efficiency of strategies, short-term and long-term perspectives are considered for their implementation.