نشریه مطالعات امنیت اقتصادی
پیاپی 1 (پاییز 1399)

The main issue of this article is to analyze and critique the economic measures of the document of the basic model of progress from the perspective of economic defense and to provide alternative and complementary solutions to achieve the goals of economic defense in the document of the Iranian model of progress. Therefore, at first, with a descriptive-analytical method with a critical approach, using expert criticisms on the general measures of the basic document, the economic measures have been studied and analyzed that will not provide the country's economy with protection from internal and external threats. After proposing these measures and using the criticisms related to it, alternative or complementary proposals for achieving the goals of economic defense have been presented, presented and analyzed within the time frame of the Iranian Islamic model document. Finally, the proposed measures have been adapted to the main components governing a resistance economy. Findings of the article indicate that most of the measures of the model document do not provide a policy solution in various economic areas. Also, by not considering the vulnerabilities of the country's economy in the long run, they will not provide grounds for economic protection. Therefore, by reforming this group of measures, the goals and policies of the economic governance system have been achieved within the time frame of the Iranian Islamic model document, and by using the main components of the general policies of the resistance economy over the proposed measures, the country's economy is in crisis. Internal and external threats.

The common relationship of unarmed defense or pre-crisis immunity to society with social policy is the central theme of this article. Therefore, an attempt has been made to extract policy issues in social development and review them based on first-hand research, literature and related theories. The highest macro-document of progress and development considered by the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is in the stage of elite criticism and evaluation, has been analyzed and analyzed based on the requirements and merits of social policy, and the neglected and defective points have been identified by the researcher. The method of this article has been documentary and based on library resources.

The development of science, technology and innovation as the main components of the current and future authority of our country, Requires simultaneous attention to passive defense. In this regard, the document of Islamic-Iranian Model of Progress document as an upstream document of all the country's documents in the next 50 years, should be able to provide a clear picture of Iran's desirable future in this field as one of its authoritative parts. The present study seeks to evaluate the issues related to science, technology and innovation in this document by cutting the passive defense in order to pave the way for policy makers. The results of the present study showed that although 10 measures have directly or indirectly addressed the field of science and technology, but these measures are more like a goal than an operational action in that generally no mechanism has been introduced to achieve them. Also, despite the existence of threats and technological surprises that will completely endanger the islami-Irani civilization in the future, No premeditated and futuristic steps have been taken to move in this space. Finally, according to the analysis, two corrective measures and 5 proposed measures to eliminate the mentioned gaps have been proposed.

The document of the basic model of Iranian-Islamic progress has various shortcomings in various areas. The issue that this study intends to address is the shortcomings and shortcomings of the document of the basic model of Iranian-Islamic progress in the field of security and defense from the perspective of passive defense (issue). The importance of this issue lies in the high position of the document of the Iranian Islamic model of progress as a roadmap for the next fifty years of the Islamic Republic of Iran (importance). The need to address this issue stems from the shortcomings in the text of the document in the field of security and defense and from the perspective of passive defense and the need to address these shortcomings (necessity). The purpose of this study is to highlight the shortcomings in the text of the document in the field of security and defense and to provide corrective solutions to help policy in this area (Objective). Passive defense is the most important concept of this research, which is defined voluntarily (conceptual basis). The question of this research is what are the shortcomings of the document of the basic Iranian Islamic model of progress in the field of security and defense from the perspective of passive defense? (Main question). The data of this research have been collected in the form of libraries and evaluated in a descriptive-analytical manner (method). Due to the indigenous nature of the Iranian Islamic model of progress, this study was conducted from the perspective of Islamic sources and based on Islamic humanities. Looking at this area from the perspective of passive defense is fundamentally overlooked (conclusion). Inspired by Islamic and indigenous sources (Quran, narrations, Imam's thought and leadership), this article offers suggestions for filling gaps and eliminating shortcomings.

Economic security is the maintenance and promotion of the way of life of the people of a society through the provision of goods and services, as well as through internal operations and presence in international markets, hence economic security is one of the most important issues of Iran's economy today. The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between economic stability and economic security in Iran during time series data of the period 1357 to 1397. In this study, using a combined index of Iran's economic security is calculated based on two indicators of production and investment. The economic stability index is also calculated based on the GARCH model. This research is correlational in terms of applied purpose and descriptive research in terms of type and method. In this study, the causal relationship between the two variables was investigated using Granger causality. According to the results of Granger causality and the significance of Granger causality statistics from economic stability to economic security, it can be said that economic stability is a determining factor of economic security. Also, considering the insignificance of the probability of Granger causality statistics from economic security on economic stability, it can be said that economic security does not have Granger causality on economic stability. Also the regression results showed that the effect of economic stability on economic security in Iran is positive and significant and this suggests that increasing economic instability will reduce economic security in the country.

Social, economic and demographic factors are among the factors affecting fertility, among which social factors have been studied in many previous studies; However, no research has been done on the effect of economic uncertainty variables. Among the "causes of economic uncertainty" are the increase in oil prices and commodity prices, which leads to an increase in companies' production costs. This increases the pressure of inflation and the supply-side shock will lead to a recession, which is a combination of high inflation and low economic growth. There are also two other factors of economic uncertainty, the global recession and the financial instability of banks. Recently, economic uncertainty has been identified as a determinant of fertility, which is significant in research. Accordingly, measuring economic uncertainty is difficult and unclear. The results of the study indicate that the increase in economic uncertainty of the government has reduced the fertility rate in the time and place studied. So that in long-term and short-term models, the effect of this index on fertility rate is significant. On this basis, it can be suggested to the government that by supporting the promotion of successful and easy marriage, childbearing through legal arrangements, work and facilities, and the provision of supplementary health insurance, continuous education and responsible counseling for adolescents, young people and low-income families. The year after marriage is also studied by all relevant agencies. This study is by documentary or library method and all data are collected through the World Bank website. The statistical population was studied in Iran. For the period 78 1378-1398 and the location of 22 provinces  which  are based on  population-population-selectedincluding will be examined. In this study, panel data were used due to more information, more variability, less alignment, higher degree of freedom and higher efficiency than time series and cross-sectional data and ARCH and GARCH methods.