فصلنامه اقتصاد مقداری
سال هفدهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 67، زمستان 1399)

A group is an organized unit whose members have a common goal, work together, and mutually exchange information and experiences. One of the key issues for any organization is finding ways to encourage them to perform better. Businesses constantly need to motivate the workforce to be more flexible, respond more quickly, provide reliable solutions to complex issues, and increase production, generally.  According to conventional economics, increasing monetary rewards will increase the efforts of the workforce. In other words, more monetary rewards mean stronger incentives and vice versa. This simplification is used in many economic situations; however, it does not necessarily apply to environments where the workforce is part of a group and their rewards are affected by the work of the other group members. In fact, it may be that the economic theory claiming that more rewards lead to more effort by the labor force does not apply under certain conditions, and a situation contrary to it occurs. Actually, in such circumstances, some members of the group might take advantage of the other members of the group, and will get more rewards while doing less work, which has been described by Winter (2009) and McClure et al. (2014) as incentive reversal. Incentive reversal indicates a situation in which an increase in rewards for all the members of a group will only lead to an effort made by a fraction of the agents. The main objective of this study is an experimental survey of incentive reversal in the framework of a sequential game. In this regard, 135 students from Ayatollah Haeri University of Meybod participated in a two-stage game consisting of three-person teams. The results showed that: first, with regards to incentive reversal, the increase in the cost of effort results in more effort and thus more production. Second, when the cost of effort is high, each player will attempt to exert his/her effort, if and only if he/she observed that all the agents before him/her have attempted to exert their efforts. Third, based on incentive reversal theory predictions, the first participants exert less effort at low costs. The findings of the present study on incentive reversals indicate the important conclusion that large monetary incentives may lose their effectiveness if the validity of this potential threat is devalued. Also, the explicit and complete introduction of rewards may sometimes not have the desired results. For example, guaranteeing increased pay to employees or providing better job opportunities that reduce effort costs does not always lead to increased performance. Rather, they may even lead to incentive reversals .

The time structure of the interest rate or yield curve represents the relationship between the time remaining to maturity and the yield on Islamic Treasury Bills. Islamic Treasury Bills are registered documents that are transferred to non-government creditors by the government to settle its confirmed debts by maintaining the purchasing power for capital asset acquisition plans with a nominal price and fixed maturity date and the recipients of treasury bills can sell these bonds in the new financial instruments market of Iran’s Fara Bourse. The main difference between these documents and other securities comes from their maturity date and interest payments. These bonds generally have a maturity date of less than a year. Islamic Treasury Bills are profitless and will have no midterm payment known as interest and investors will benefit from the difference between the purchase price of the bonds and the par value received at the maturity date. Bond holders receive the nominal amount from the government at the maturity date. Since Iran's Department of Treasury has undertaken to pay the nominal amount of these documents at maturity, they are called risk-free bonds. In fact, the Department of Treasury of all countries has minimum risk in fulfilling its obligations and can pay its debts on time with great certainty due to the backing it receives from the taxes collected from the society.  Islamic treasury bills also appear to be the most important tool in the money market to apply monetary policies and have a high degree of liquidity. The present study pertains to the term structure of Iran’s interest rate base on a New Keynesian model from 1994: Q1-2016: Q4. This study has attempted to investigate this issue using the vector autoregression (VAR) model. VAR analysis tools include the impulse function and variance decomposition. In this study, the Hodrick- Prescott filter method has been used to determine the invisible values of the expected inflation rate and potential output. According to the findings of this research, the variable coefficient of expected inflation and past inflation is significant, indicating that firms are both forward- and backward-looking in setting their prices, but the lagged inflation coefficient is higher than the expected inflation coefficient, indicating that firms pay more attention to past inflation in determining their current price levels. The effect of inflationary shock on the 3-month interest rate, 6-month interest rate and 6-month risk premium is positive and significant and the effect of the output shock on the one-year interest rate is negative and insignificant. Also, Taylor rule estimation results indicated that the values of the output gap and the forward-looking inflation expectations are positive and significant at 0.32 and 0.21 respectively. According to the results of this estimation, the reaction of the monetary authorities to the production gap is consistent with the Taylor rule, while this reaction is not concordant with inflation expectations.

One of the main goals of labor market experts is to conduct comparative studies between existing data and different economic models and to identify the best model for better planning, policymaking and anticipation. In this regard, discovering the behavior and interactions among the members can influence the consumption process, labor force supply and other decisions made by this unit and thus the family’s welfare.  The change in family lifestyles from single-income to dual-income has altered the established male as the head of the household and housewife pattern. The extensive changes in technology and women’s educational growth, urbanization, rise in household costs, role changes within the household etc… have led to a simultaneous increase in the labor supply for both husband and wife, and therefore examining the behavior of the labor supply of the couple is among the important policymaking issues for the labor market. In most neoclassical microeconomic literature, couples' decision-making behavior in the household is analyzed based on the Unitary Model (UM). This model is known through the early foundational literature by Samuelson (1956) and its later expansion by Becker (1973). In the Unitary Model (UM), the neoclassical economics tool is used to explore labor supply communications, while the household, as a unit, aims to maximize the Social welfare function —the sum of the functions of the members' utility—by restricting Budget constraints. One of the basic needs of any static and dynamic model is to create appropriate conditions for experimental estimation. From this point of view, the Unitary Model (UM) has provided the ability to identify the behavior of household labor supply in most specific hypotheses by introducing testable restrictions. It can be concluded that the summary of the labor supply of the Unitary Model (UM) has two types of main testable restrictions: Income pooling and Symmetry of wage effects (Slutsky properties).   Using the test of main restrictions of the unitary model, this research endeavors to study the ability of this model in identifying the family labor supply. This would assure the policymakers to implement the neoclassical model in order to determine the current situation and to predict a favorable one.  In this regard and as the first step, the model of the labor supply of dual-income couples who have a non-labor income is estimated by using Household Expenditure and Income Survey Results in Urban and Rural Areas from the year 2013. The labor supply functions of dual earner couples who have a non –labor income have been estimated based on statistical and econometric methods. They have been estimated based on two subsets of errors in measurement (division bias) and endogeneity with the help of the leaner-semi logarithmic model and considering non-pooling and pooling non-labor income. Considering the endogeneity of wage variable, in both models of the labor supply of dual-earner couples, the estimation has been done based on Generalized Method of Moments(GMM), and to avoid bias in the sampling of the wage variable in the model of female labor supply, the Heckman Two-Step Method (Heckit) has been utilized. In the second step of the study, in order to test the unitary model (UM), the two restrictions namely, income pooling and symmetry wage effects (Slutsky Condition) have been examined. The results of the studied sample indicate the restriction of Income pooling in the male working hours supply model and the same refuting the restriction for females. This is while the results of the Symmetry of Wage Effects test in both models of couples working hours supply is verified. Although the results of the Unitary Model Test based on the studied data have indicated important evidences in favor of the Neoclassical Theory and   imply that this theory can be a reliable reference in determining   the couple’s behavior in the labor supply, attention to the new model of couple’s labor supply in the household based on national data can be considered in future research to improve policy making.

Humans being always search the best possible outcomes from the available facilities, reflecting the human gols to achieve higher efficiency. Efficiency can be defined such as maximizing the yield and the right use of resources. Banks, as the core of the financial system, play a key role in providing the funds for manufacturing, commercial and consumer sectors, and even the government. The emergence of banking crises in recent decades in industrialized countries, and especially in developing countries, for reasons such as deposit volatility, rising bank non-performing loans, economic recession and so on,   has disrupted financial market regulation and caused many banks to go bankrupt. Various studies show that the probability of survival varies significantly across the businesses in each industry. Many new businesses go bankrupt each year and their economic and social results reveal the need to study the variables that affect their survival. The exit of any business has led to capital outflows and can greatly hurt economic growth. The existence of every living and active enterprise, like all organizations, requires an effort to improve its status and sustainability. Banks today, especially in advanced countries, act as guidance, professional advisers, specialists in financing companies and collecting and exchanging information needed for their clients, as well as act as an economic driving engine. This has created a tight competitive environment between them. As the business environment and banks become more competitive, inefficient banks continue to operate and survive, and only highly efficiency banks can survive in the competitive environment. In Iran, because the financial system of the country is bank-based and the banking sector has a larger volume of the economy than the capital market, so it is important to evaluate the efficiency of Iranian banks, especially the cost efficiency. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of factors influencing survival on the cost effectiveness of Iranian banks. For this purpose, first by studying the theoretical foundations and statistical models, the key variables that can influence the survival of banks were identified and finally their impact on banks' cost efficiency was investigated. For this purpose, based on the CAMEL model and Logit regression technique, key and significant variables are identified on the survival of the studied banks and then their cost-effectiveness is estimated through translog function and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) technique. Finally, the relationship between the variables affecting survival and the cost effectiveness of banks is tested. The results show that improving capital adequacy increases the efficiency of banks. Capital adequacy can have a positive effect on bank cost efficiency by reducing uncertainty. Investigating the effect of Non-performing loans on bank efficiency shows that negative effect of Non-performing loans on bank efficiency is significant. This result shows that the growth of banks' non-performing loans reduces the efficiency of banks. Statistical results indicate that the liquidity coefficient is not significant on banks' cost efficiency model. The results also show that the type of ownership has a significant and negative effect on banks' cost efficiency. In other words, the state-owned banks had a negative effect on the cost efficiency of the Iranian banks. At last, the results of this study show that the growth of Non-performing loans and the reduction of capital adequacy and state ownership decrease the efficiency of Iranian banks. Policy makers for losing the banking crisis should therefore pursue policies aimed at increasing the survival of banks and reduce the growth of Non-performing loans and increase the capital adequacy ratio and move towards reducing government ownership in the banking system.

Analyzing the effect of monetary shocks through monetary policy transmission channels is one of the central topics in the field of macroeconomics. This paper aimed to explore the balance sheet channel of monetary policy transmission in Iran. For this purpose, the effect of the financial and balance sheet situation of firms on their investment was tested. In this paper, the cash flow, financial leverage, and size of the firm were used as the determinants of the financial situation of firms. In this regard, the balance sheet data (2007-2018) of 50 non-financial firms in the Tehran Stock Exchange were studied by the GMM method. The financial market is considered as a market with imperfect information. Therefore, there is a gap between the external and internal financing costs (external financing premium) caused by the asymmetric information in the financial market. In this case, the lenders force the borrowers (firms) to pay a risk premium in order that the monitoring costs and the possible risk created by the borrowers. The balance sheet channel suggests that a contractionary monetary policy decreases the cash flow and net worth of firms, thereby weakening their balance sheet situation. A weak financial situation increases an external financing premium and thus reduce an investment. When there is a contractionary monetary policy, the firms with more financial constraints (those with a weaker financial situation) will have a greater reduction in their investment because of increasing an external risk premium, compared to ones with lower financial constraints (those with a better financial situation). This shows that the balance sheet situation (cash flow and financial leverage) of the firms with lower financial constraints has a less effect on their investment, indicating the poorer performance of balance sheet channel than that of the firms with more financial constraints. Therefore, the study of the effect of the balance sheet situation of firms on their investment supports the theories of the monetary transmission mechanism. A monetary policy shock has a less effect on large firms compared to small ones. This is due to the higher net worth and cash situation of large firms. Furthermore, large firms have a better reputation than small ones because of their relatively stronger balance sheet situation. This leads to the lowering of information and transaction costs as well as the default risk of large firms. Moreover, this leads to a higher possibility for large firms to access external financing sources. Therefore, large firms are facing with a lower financing premium compared to small ones, indicating the reduction in dependence of their investment on internal sources as well as the effect of a monetary policy shock on the investments. Thus, this leads to a weaker effect of monetary policies through the balance sheet channel of the firm. The results show that there is the balance sheet channel of monetary policy transmission in Iran. Furthermore, the findings indicate that in the firms with lower financial constraints (large firms), the performance of balance sheet channel is poorer than the ones with more financial constraints (small firms).

The diversity of economic activities on the one hand and the increasing role of governments to expand public services, social security, economic and social obligations of the state in an effort to achieve economic growth and the equitable distribution of income on the other hand, has transformed the role of institutional components into an important and influential issue. Since institutional economists believe the weakness of the structure and function of institutions is one of the causes of underdevelopment, this study aimed to investigate the effect of the institutional variables of the governance quality index, economic freedom and facilities granted by banks to the private sector on the distribution of income from 2004-2015. Data modeling was performed based on the threshold regression method, which yields more consistent estimates compared with other estimation methods. Later, data stationary was examined using the Levine Lin Cho unit root test. The results show that during the research period, the variables of good governance, facilities given to the private sector and the Gini coefficient are stationary at level, and the variables of government size and economic freedom are stationary in the first differences. In order to estimate the model by using the threshold regression test, considering that in order to specify a nonlinear model, in the first step the linear model should be specified to create a basic model to test the hypothesis that the model is linear. The linear model of feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) has been estimated in the framework of diagnostic tests (correlation, heteroscedasticity, and normal distribution), F Limmer test, and Hausman test as panel data regressions with fixed effects. According to the results, the Ramsey test to model specification is not satisfactory, indicating the error of specifying the linear model, which reinforces the possibility that the nonlinear relation is closer to the actual model. The estimation of the threshold regression model has been calculated By using threshold levels, and threshold effect tests. The values of the threshold levels obtained for the government size variable are 7.85 and 8.16. The obtained threshold levels show that when government size reaches 7.85%, the income distribution function fails and the effect of model variables on income distribution varies. In the next step, the search for the second threshold shows that when the size of the government is 8.16 percent, the way in which the variables of economic freedom, private sector facilities and good governance affect the distribution of income changes again. Also, due to the fact that according to the threshold effect test, threshold values are significant, the effect of the coefficients obtained in the model is affected by the threshold values obtained. Analysis of the results obtained from the estimate of the threshold regression model shows that in the regime of the big government, the variables of the index of quality of governance and economic freedom have the most significant negative effect and the private sector facilities have a significant positive effect on income distribution. The findings of this study confirm the necessity of planning and orientation in the countries under study in order to improve indicators of government size, good governance and economic freedom, regulations, efficiency and effectiveness, and support for the private sector.