پژوهشنامه اقتصاد انرژی ایران
پیاپی 31 (تابستان 1398)

The increasing demand of fossil fuels alongside its environmental pollution necessitates the optimal consumption of the fuels. In cold seasons, natural gas consumption increases and power plants of the country need to substitute their consumed fuel in order to supply electricity. This paper evaluated the substitution between consumable fuels in electricity production in six selected regional electricity companies during the years 1389-1386. Cost share equations of conventional fuels in electricity generation were estimated using the seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) estimator. Using the results of the estimation, equations of the own-and cross-price elasticities of the substitution of different fuels were calculated. According to the results of calculations, all the own price elasticities were negative and cross price elasticities were positive. The substitute elasticity between natural gas and gasoil was 1.56 and between natural gas and mazut was 1.3. Also, using the calculated elasticities, the substitution of fuels was applied with the aim of reducing CO2 emissions. The application results showed that the substitution of mazut with natural gas would reduce CO2 emissions, but the substitution of gasoil with natural gas would increase CO2 emissions.

Electricity is one of the essential factors for the economic development in almost all countries. On the other hand, the increasing use of the non-renewable energy, like fossil fuels for electricity generation, would lead to the depletion of the non-renewable reserves. Also, the use of fossil fuels is one of the most important factors contributing to environmental pollution and climate change. Hence, the optimal use of energy in the process of the economic development has always been considered as an important objective for the sustainable development. In this research, a small open economy has been devised by considering a structure for its electric power market based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, taking into account four main sectors, including households, production, government and the foreign trade sector. Furthermore, the dynamic effects of shocks in the economy on macroeconomic variables have been examined in the study. The simulation and analysis of impulse response functions of the model indicated that the productivity shocks in the electricity industry have significant effects on macroeconomic variables. The adjustment of the effects of shocks takes place in the long run. Moreover, the mechanism of the effect of a consumer’s preferences shock is quite different, and even its adjustment on some macroeconomic variables occurs over a longer period of time compared to the other shocks

This research conducts a quantitative comparative analysis of the dynamic international crude oil trade network of Iran by using the network connectedness measures of Diebold and Yilmaz (2015) and also the asymmetric short-term and long-term impact of the increasing and decreasing key driving factors and obstacles in the crude oil trade development through the gravityrelation and by using the nonlinear panel auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model during 1980–2017. Results indicated the dynamic spillover flow of the crude oil trade of Iran during the investigated period of time. Moreover, the crude oil trade flow of Iran is a net shock transmitter to Middle East and a net shock receiver from the crude oil trade flow in countries of America, Eastern Europe- Eurasia, Africa, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific, respectively. The focus on the divided regional trade scheme and adopting the biased foreign trade policies by Iran may not lead to the vulnerability reduction of its economy from crude oil trade flow volatilities. Findings also reveal the asymmetric behavior of the crude oil bilateral trade flow in response to the increasing and decreasing of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita variables in both crude oil exporting and importing countries and international crude oil transportation costs in the short-term and long-term period that it can be used in identifying the effective factors on the volatility transmission to adjust the crude oil trade flow. Therefore, concerning the high degree of the integration in the international crude oil trade network of Iran, it seems that it is necessary to prioritize cooperative over competitive behavior in the crude oil trade of Iran and respond appropriately to market shocks and volatilities during the time (risk management) in the economic plan of the country.

Improving energy efficiency as one of the most important tools for managing energy demand leads to a phenomenon called Rebound Effect, which causes the energy savings achieved by improving energy efficiency not equal to the expected level. In this study, with employing Input-Output approach and the structural decomposition analysis, we quantify the changes of electricity, natural gas and oil products consumption according to the final demand variations and technological progress in terms of changes in energy efficiency and intermediate demand during the period of 2001-2011. After examination of the economic sectors in which they experience improving energy efficiency, the rebound effect of the energy consumption for each energy carriers has been measured. The results of this study show that electricity, natural gas and oil products from 24 economic sectors in 11, 4, and 20 economic sectors have experienced improvements in energy efficiency due to technological advances. "Construction of basic metals", "Electricity" and "Manufacturing of non-metallic mineral products" have the highest reduction in energy consumption associated with these carriers respectively, and the "postal and support services" 62.83%, "Construction of coke and products from oil refining and nuclear fuel" with 147.72%, "Construction of chemical and chemical products" with 86.33%  have the highest efficiency in electricity consumption, Natural gas and oil products. Considering inter-sectional and intra-intermediate interchanges, the rebound effects is increased in all sectors.

Regarding the role of the energy market, especially oil, on the economy of countries, it is important to identify the future evolution of the market. In this respect, predicting the changeable extreme evolution of the oil price is crucial for decision and policy makers. This study attempts to investigate the maximum changes of OPEC’s oil price by employing the concept of Value at Risk. To this end, GARCH family models based on the normal and extreme distribution were used, and it is expected that the focus on the latter in forecasting Value at Risk, especially in the face of extreme events, may end up in more realistic results. The results of the backtesting of models show that the ARMA-GARCH-EVT model predicts better than the other ones.

The contract for the development of phase 11 of South Pars has been signed by a consortium of Total in France with a share of (51%), CNPC in China (30%), and Petropars Iran (19.9%) in July 2017. By using a comprehensive and accurate model designed in this research, all the aspects of the mentioned project, including technical issues, production profile, gas price, project costs, and project revenues were evaluated financially and economically with the consideration of the fiscal and economic components of the development contract in the dynamic manner. Finally, regarding the results, executive suggestions were stated in order to improve the fiscal regime of the contract. According to the findings, the fiscal regime of the contract is so-called regressive and the revenue increase or decrease has no effect on the contractor’s profitability. The most significant drawback of the contract is the pricing mechanism of the produced gas, causing a false price followed by an overestimate of the project’s profit and underestimate of the contractor's take and creating an implicit obligation for repaying the contractor’s dues from their revenues of other hydrocarbon fields of the country in the case of petroleum and gas condensate price drop. The results show that during rich gas pricing, in the case of realistic pricing of the produced gas, the foreign contractor's discounted take would increase from 6% to 27%, and on the opposite side, the government's take would decrease from 92% to 67%.