پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان
سال پانزدهم شماره 30 (پاییز و زمستان 1399)

Demographic transition is known as one of the main factors affecting economic growth. But this effect may depend on natural resource rent s in resource-rich countries. In other word s, resource rent s may shape the impact of the demographic transition on national income. This paper examines d the interaction effect of oil revenue on demographic transition and GDP per capita of Iran during 1978 - 2017. The results suggest that the capacity of the economy to productively absorb the entry of young people into the labor market is limited by higher oil revenue. Given the significant increase in the share of the working-age population in the last decade and also decreasing of Iran's oil revenue s in beginning of 1400 Implementing effective planning to take advantage of demographic transition into an economic prosperity seem s more important than ever.

Entrepreneurship is one of the key factors in the process of economic growth of countries and is essential for the stability of economic growth in today's dynamic world. Therefore, the development of entrepreneurial activities is a necessity for developing and developed countries. However, patterns of entrepreneurial activity are unevenly distributed. While some regions have seen extraordinary growth in entrepreneurial activity, others have shown a decline in productive entrepreneurial activity. In this regard, the main purpose of this article is to study the short- and long-term effects of macroeconomic variables (tax rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate, foreign investment, access to funds, start-up costs) on entrepreneurship in a group of efficiency-driven countries (30 countries including Iran) and innovation-driven countries (28 countries) using panel data technic and generalized method of moments (GMM) during 2018-2010. The results show the negative effects of tax rates, foreign investment, inflation, and business start-up costs, as well as the positive effects of unemployment and access to financing on entrepreneurial activities in efficiency-driven countries in the short- and long-term. The results also show the negative effects of tax rates, unemployment rates, and business start-up costs, and positive effects of inflation and access to financing, and the lack of foreign investment in innovative countries in the short- and long-term. In addition, due to the macroeconomic stability of selected countries, the impact of these factors is more pronounced in efficiency-oriented countries than in innovation-oriented countries.

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of monetary policy on the housing sector through credit channel and exchange rate channel in Iran using the Vector Error Correction (VEC) approach. An examination of the empirical results of estimating the relationships between variables in1368:1-1397:1 period showed that the small impact of these two channels on the transfer of monetary policy affects the housing sector if monetary policy is transferred through the banking system's lending channel to the housing sector, the volume of money has the greatest impact on the production and price of the housing sector, and if monetary policy through The exchange rate channel is shifting to the housing sector, the debt of the banks to the central bank has the greatest impact on the production and the price of the housing sector.

The diversification of export commodities and the decentralization on the export of several limited products have reduced the country's foreign exchange earnings effect in global political and economical fluctuations, and this is why this issue is of particular importance. The main of this study is to examine the relationship between the diversification of industrial export goods and the volatility of foreign exchange earnings in Iran`s industry sector. For this purpose, seasonal data from 2002-2 to 2018-3 and using the NARDL method to determine the Rocket-Feather effect of diversification and concentration in industrial export have been used, and for the purpose of examining export diversification, the Hierarchical Index and Till Index have been used. The results confirm the asymmetric effects of diversification and concentration on instability of exchange earnings industry in the short and long run, so that in both models, diversity has less impact on the focus of industrial exports, so the diversification of export-oriented industrial goods has slowly stabilized foreign exchange earnings. While the concentration of export industrial goods has been strongly caused by the instability of exchange earnings. Also, the impact of global income on the instability of the industrial exchange earnings has been negatively achieved, thereby contributing to the stability of exchange earnings, while the instability of the real exchange rate, inflation rate is positive and instability have intensified. Also, the impact of investment in the industrial sector was negative but insignificant.

This study aims at examining factors effective on corruption in oil producer countries using the Panel VAR method in the 1996 - 2019 period. For this, these countries have been divided into two groups of countries with high annual income and ones with low annual income. Based on the research background and reviewing theoretical bases, three factors were considered effective on the corruption index, including economical factors (economical growth and government costs to GDP ratio), social factors (Gini coefficient), and factors (democracy and bureaucracy). Results indicated that in countries with low annual income, the government costs to GDP ratio, bureaucracy, and Gini coefficient lead to increase corruption index. In contrast, in oil producer countries, with high annual income, the economic growth rate, Government costs to GDP ratio ، improving democracy and bureaucracy lead to corruption index and increasing Gini coefficient leads to increase corruption index in these countries.

In this paper, we present the model macro-stress test Risk Credit for the banking system of Iran during the period 2004-2019. The goal is to evaluate the vulnerability of the banking system through the credit risk to the country's economic shocks. In this regard, an extended model of credit risk used by Thomas Wilson has been used for credit facilities in Iran, including credit banking facilities. The results of the applied analysis show that the exchange rate has a strong effect on credit risk. In addition, the variables of the inflation rate, economic growth, loan growth, and liquidity rate have a less negative effect and the unemployment rate has a positive effect on credit quality. Using Monte Carlo simulation and calculating the risk value and expected losses for each of the economic variables, the capital required by banks to cover losses is obtained. The results of the credit risk stress test show that an adverse scenario due to currency shock with a standard deviation has the greatest impact on the amount of capital required to cover unexpected losses compared to the baseline scenario and banks need less capital to cover their losses. But to cover the losses caused by the shocks of other variables, it is necessary to increase their capital. In general, according to the obtained results, it is necessary for Iranian banks to increase their capital in order to cover their unexpected losses according to the instructions of the Ball Committee and to use the stress test as a risk management tool.

Countries' risk in choosing the type of finance products in international trade is important. Firms can buy special trade finance products from banks, the most common of which are letter of credit (LC), cash in advance (CA) and open account (OA). Based on import’s data of Iran from 79 countries during the years of 1393-1396 and using the panel data econometric model, this paper explores the effect of rule of law in origin and destination as a measure of countries' risk on choice of finance products in international trade. The countries are divided into three groups: low risk, medium risk and high risk. The results in this study showed that. Letters of credit are employed the most for export to countries with intermediate rule of law (contract enforcement), and they are used for riskier destination than cash in advances. As countries' risk increases, the use of letter of credit increases, but this relationship is not linear, so firms use less letter of credit with high-risk countries and use more open account. In other words, the effect of countries' risk or the rule of law index on employed the "letter of credit" as one of the important finance products is "hill-shaped".

In this study, the role of positive and negative shocks of exchange rate, stock index and oil price in the upper and lower values of the stock index threshold has been investigated by using the threshold structural vector autoregressive model in the period 1388:01-1397:09 on a monthly basis. The results show that in higher values of threshold of stock index, positive oil price shock, negative exchange rate shock and also negative stock index shock can reduce financial instability in the country, also in lower values of threshold of stock index, Positive shock of oil prices in the long run and negative shock of oil prices in the short and medium term, as well as negative shock of exchange rates in the short and medium term and positive shock of the stock index can reduce financial instability. According to the results, under any circumstances, supporting the stock market cannot reduce financial instability in the country. in higher values of threshold of stock index (growth of more than 6.8% of stock market index per month) positive shocks to the stock index increase financial instability in the country, but in lower values of threshold of stock index can be reducing financial instability in the country. Also, foreign exchange market stability should be formed in the country so that positive currency shocks do not increase financial instability in the country.

In the present study, the economic factors affecting the components of Iran tax revenue in the context of economic sanctions are investigated using the exploratory factor analysis model and the NARDL nonlinear model during the period 1979-2017. To examine tax revenues, personal income tax, corporate income tax and customs income tax were used in the form of three models. According to the results of the exploratory factor analysis model, the first 4 study variables represent sanctions and among the indicators, the price of imported goods and the price of exported goods have the most effect on these factors. In accordance with the estimation results of the NARDL nonlinear model, in the long run, the variables of oil revenue share and sanctions have a significant positive effect on personal tax revenues. Moreover, GDP per capita variable has a significant negative impact on corporate tax revenues in the long run. Finally, in the long run, the effect of variables on customs revenue is theoretically consistent but not statistically significant. Considering the economic conditions of the country at the time of the sanctions, coherent changes are required in the structure and system of the taxes.

According to many economics and development experts, governance is an influential factor in economic and sustainable development, and observance of the good governance principle is an appropriate foundation for management of various financial resources in an efficient way in order to accomplish sustainable development in different societies. Therefore, in the current study, the effect of good governance dimensions (political, social and economic) on the sustainable development index in Iran is examined based on data from reputable international organizations and usage of the econometric model in the period of 1997-2018. According to the variability test of variables and having a single root, the Johnson Joe Celsius model is used, and the sustainable development variable (with a combination of components of sustainable development including economic growth, poverty alleviation, and preserving the environment) has been calculated based on the principal component analysis technique. After estimating econometric models, this study's results indicate that social governance is the most important and influential governance dimension on Iran's sustainable development index among governance dimensions. Overall, the good governance has a positive effect of 1.39 percent on the sustainable development index. The influence of governance variables on the sustainable development index is significant and in line with economic theories.

Economic sanctions have become a special tool in international relations since the Cold War, which seems more practical and more moral than military warfare. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic sanctions, corruption and economic fluctuations on investment. The present research investigates the macroeconomic indicators of trade volume, corruption and political risk, profit rate, liquidity, economic growth, economic sanctions, human capital, exchange rate, research and development expenditures, as well as investment in Iran during the years 2000 to 2019 using an applied correlational method. Furthermore, to analyze the data, Levenberg-Marquardt and neural network analysis of perceptron and artificial intelligence have been used. The fitting of the research model with a basic hypothesis has been confirmed. The results show that the model is estimated with the least error and the fitted line is approximately equal to the target value. Among the indicators, human capital has the most impact and economic growth has the least impact on investment while the impact of the other variables is intermediate.

Inflation and exchange rates are among the most important variables affecting the economy of any country. At high rates, they may have detrimental effects on the country's economy due to uncertainty of their extent in the future. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the long-term effect of inflation and exchange rate uncertainties on industrial production. For this purpose, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) approach was used to estimate the uncertainties. In addition, to estimate the model analysis, the Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) methods were used for the years 1979 to 2017. First, to investigate the stability test and prevent false regression between variables, the generalized Dickey-Fuller unit root test was used, the result of which indicates the stability of all variables except the logarithm of inflation uncertainty. Then, using the Johansen Juselius co-integration test, the long-run relationship between the variables was evaluated, based on which the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables has been confirmed. The results show the negative effect of inflation uncertainty and exchange rate uncertainty on industrial production. Government expenses also had a negative impact on the industrial production. Also, the capital stock of the industrial sector and the labor force working in this sector have been able to increase the production of the industrial sector.