نشریه مطالعات جغرافیایی مناطق کوهستانی
پیاپی 4 (زمستان 1399)

Identifying trends and structural breaks in the rainfall time series is one of the most important challenges in climate change studies. As the discovery of such structural breaks can help assess future scenarios and atmospheric phenomena such as floods and droughts. In this study, in order to identify structural breaks in the daily and monthly precipitation time series of Khorramabad synoptic station, two approaches of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and Maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) were used. The results of applying MF-DFA on the daily rainfall time series (1961-2018) showed that there are three structural breaks in this time series that the rainfall trend around these points has changed significantly. On the other hand, the results of this approach showed that the period 1985-2002 is the most fluctuating period of precipitation and the periods 1961-1969 and 2010-2018 are the periods with the lowest fluctuations in precipitation. Calculation of the fluctuation function at time scales of 2, 5, 10 and 20 years showed that in the period 2000-2018, fluctuations of 2 to 20 years have decreased. The results of the fluctuation function with q order also showed that the periods 1965-1970 and 1989-1994 were associated with large fluctuations in precipitation. If the two periods of 1999-2004 and 2008-2013 refer to periods with small fluctuations in precipitation. Also, the results obtained from the application of MODWT on the monthly rainfall time series showed that the wavelet coefficients changed in 2007. In this regard, by dividing the high frequency signals of the wave into two periods including 1961-2007 and 2008-2018, it was found that the differences between precipitation fluctuations during the scales of 8 to 16 months have the most variability in the precipitation time series.

In the present study, the attitudes of rural participants were analyzed, as well as the report of their mental and thinking performance regarding the issue of rural abandonment and decline in Varzeqan County. The research is applied in terms of purpose and is descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method, and in the context of "mixed research method", it has used two methodological components (qualitative and quantitative). This research has two sample volumes for collecting qualitative and quantitative information. The qualitative section had 26 participants and was in the form of snowball sampling and the sample size of the quantitative section was 118 people. MAXQDA software is used to encode and analyze qualitative data and SEM method is used for quantitative data analysis. The results show that the reduction of job opportunities, migration, population decline, and demand for goods and services, respectively, form cycles that cause rural abandonment and its decline. "Fragmentation of arable lands", "Income gap", "Nationalization of rangelands", "Lack of proper cultivation pattern", "Process of changing the use of agricultural lands" and "Centralization of facilities and inequalities of development zones," are some of the most influential variables in the formation of this cycle in Varzeqan city.

The purpose of this article is to compare the karst geomorphosites of Kermanshah province based on the two key indicators of core values ​​and complementary values using Vojisic 2011 Geosite Evaluation Model (GAM) and Tamik Modified Model (M-GAM) and Bozic 2014. The research type is applied and has been done by descriptive-analytical method (with field survey technique). The study area includes 6 geosites of Kermanshah province (Rijab waterfall, Bistoon mirage, Taghbestan mirage, Gilat-e-Gharb mirage, Sahneh mirage and Ghori Qaleh cave) which have rich environmental foundations for the development of geotourism. The results showed that the geomorphosites have appropriate scientific / educational and aesthetic value, but in terms of tourism values, the geomorphosites of the study area are not in a favorable condition. The Taghbestan mirage is in a good condition in terms of core values ​​and complementary values. Also, the geomorphosites of Sarab Biston and Quri Qaleh cave are in a relatively good condition from this point of view, while in general, most geomorphosites of the study area has a higher core value and a lower complementary value. In other words, these geomorphosites can only be considered as potential tourist attractions in terms of scientific / educational, aesthetic values ​​and need to promote sustainable tourism. Overall, the evaluation results of the models show a completely vague and deceptive picture of the current situation. The findings indicate that the inclusion of tourists in the modified model of geomorphosites gives a more realistic and clear picture that can be useful in improving and planning the tourism activities of the provincechr('39')s geosites.

The issue of imbalance of capital flows between different geographical regions during development creates gaps and intensifies inequality in regions, which is itself an obstacle to development and the desire toward underdevelopment. Thus, the present study aimed to assess the levels of development of cities in Kurdistan province and its relationship with human risks. This research was applied and descriptive-analytical. The data set in the Statistics Center was used to measure the levels of development. Vickor method and hierarchical analysis were used to determine the ranking of cities in Kurdistan province in terms of levels of development. Findings showed that the cities of Kamyaran (1), Sanandaj (0.211), Dehgolan (0.221), Bijar (0.2549), Divandere (0.3425), Qorveh (0.3483), respectively. Marivan (0.3671), Sarvabad (0.4860), Saqez (0.6152), Baneh (0.9060) were ranked 1st to 10th in terms of development, respectively. In relation to development and human risks, the results of prioritizing strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, as well as the evaluation of the internal and external factors evaluation matrix show that in the table of strengths S1 i.e. utilization. Among the infrastructural and economic capacities in increasing the development indicators in the table of weaknesses of W1, i.e. increasing social instability in the city due to increasing unemployment, poverty and addiction, in the field of factors of opportunities O1 i.e. creating a sense of participation and empathy among people. In order to expand the development of the city and in terms of threats, T4, i.e. creating poverty, had the highest weight.

Geotourism and Geomorphotourism is a responsible, protective and scientific approach to unique natural phenomena in the context of geomorphosite identification. One of the strategies for creating new employment is the development of the tourism industry based on the monitoring of diverse, fun and attractive natural places with appropriate access levels. This study was designed to investigate the effects of geomorphosites on tourism development in the northwestern region of Neishabour and Firoozeh city of Khorasan Razavi province. The type of research was applied and was described by descriptive-analytical method and field survey technique and analysis of valid documents and model of geotourism potentials including geosites, geomorphosites as well as cultural and economic sites. A total of 50 tourist attractions in the 36 geosite area were analyzed. Findings showed that according to the study of the general values ​​of geosites, Firoozeh mine with 87% score is ranked first, Bar Abshar with 83 score are ranked second and salt mines with 81 points are ranked third in tourism development in the region. Out of 36 geosites, only 6 were ranked less than 50%, and in addition to natural geosites, cultural and economic sites were also very important in attracting tourism to the region. These results indicate that the existence of different and diverse tourism sites in the northwestern region of Neishabour and the city of Firoozeh (7,000 years-old), which requires the possibility of visiting different groups of tourists, can indicate the potential of the region. To become the hub of a national geopark and geotourism.

Tourism is one of the most dynamic economic activities of the present era, which, through the combination and simultaneous use of internal and external resources, has many social, economic, environmental and cultural benefits. If the tourism industry is properly planned according to the framework and principles of sustainable development and with the proper participation of the public and private sectors, it can strengthen the socio-cultural structure, increase the value of cultural and natural heritage and lead to effects positive economically. The present study was conducted in the Khorramabad-Poldakhtar tourism road with a descriptive-analytical method and with the aim of examining the dimensions affecting the tourism situation of this road. The study population consisted of 30 experts and experts in the field of study. The data were analyzed using SWOT and AHP analytical model. The results showed that the regionchr('39')s susceptibility to investment and tourism planning, the inefficiency of using new tools in information, tourism and the inadequacy of infrastructure and equipment, communications and information technology, increase the private sectorchr('39')s incentive to invest in the sector. Tourism and non-provision of necessary facilities for the private sector are the most important strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing the development of tourism-oriented studies, respectively. Also, ST strategy is the most appropriate strategy for tourism development of communication route Khorramabad - Poldokhtar.