مجله بررسی مسائل اقتصاد ایران
سال هفتم شماره 1 (پیاپی 13، بهار و تابستان 1399)

Uncertainty is a major challenge for economic agents and policymakers, and is one of the effective factors in causing fluctuations in macroeconomics. Economic uncertainty changes the demand for money by affecting people's expectations of the future state of the economy. In this study, the effect of economic uncertainty on money demand in Iran during the period from the first quarter of 2004 to the third quarter of 2018 has been investigated. Hence, the liquidity demand function is estimated using an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model and quarterly data of liquidity volume, national income, bank interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and economic uncertainty index. The results show that economic policy uncertainty has a significant effect on liquidity demand. In examining the asymmetric effects, both increase and decrease of uncertainty show a negative effect on liquidity, indicating asymmetric response. Therefore, the economic policy uncertainty index is effective in predicting fluctuations of money demand in Iran.

Manufacturing investment due to the strong backward and forward linkages with other sectors plays an important role in determining the business cycles. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on gross fixed capital formation in manufacturing ang mining sector by applying the NARDL approach and in terms of structural breaks in annual time series data of the Iranian economy during the period 1974-2018. The results show that the estimated model is non linear. Additionally, the effect of exchange rate shocks on the investment in manufacturing and mining in the short term and long term are asymmetric. It is worth mentioning that one percent increase in positive and negative shocks, in exchange rate fluctuations with coefficients of 1.62 and 0.84, respectively, have the negative and significant effects on investment. In addition, the real rate of returns on facilities with a coefficient of 2.71 has a negative and significant effect on investment. Also, manufacturing value-added growth with a cofficient of 1.6 and outstanding facilities by banks and credit institutions to manufacturing and mining sector with a cofficient of 0.31 have positive and significant effects on investment.

Social development is a process of changes that leads to improvement in human well-being. Human well-being means access to better education, better health, and the resources required for basic human needs. On the other hand, the macroeconomic condition of each country is an effective factor in this issue. Therefore, in this paper, we examined the effect of macroeconomic instability on social development in Iran between 1352 through 1396. To measure the social development, we used two variables of human development index and under-five child survival rate and to measure macroeconomic instability, we combined four variables, the GDP volatility, the terms of trade volatility, the investment volatility and the private consumption expenditure volatility. The results showed that macroeconomic instability has a negative and significant effect on the human development index and the under-five survival rate in the long run, which reflects the negative effects of macroeconomic instability on social development. Also, in the short run, there is no significant relationship between the relevant variables and social development.

One of the major issues at present in the Iranian economy is a greater regional convergence to increase trade and economic potential under Western sanctions. As a developing economy, Iran needs to multilateralize trade relations with other economies in the world in order to make good use of other countries' production advantages. In this regard, the main purpose of this article is to examine more closely the issue of Iran's multilateralism in foreign trade with a focus on the Eurasian Economic Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. To do this research, the method of performance evaluation based on Balanced Scorecard and ranking of options based on TOPSIS technique (TOPSIS) is used. The results of this study show the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's better rank than the Eurasian Economic Union for joining Iran on the basis of four areas of financial performance, internal market, internal process, growth and learning. It seems that the emergence of three emerging economies, including China, India and Russia, in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will create more business opportunities for the Iranian economy than the Eurasian Economic Union, which operates solely on Russian political influence.

According to the statistics provided by the Book House of the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, around 5,000 authors published their books of fiction or novel from 2017 to 2019. Although literary writers constitute a central position in the creative class, no comprehensive study has been conducted on their income and labor market characteristics yet. In cultural economics, authors are placed in the category of artists and their labor market characteristics are considered almost identical. Therefore, the studies on artists' labor markets can be employed to identify authors. The theoretical framework is taken from previous research on artistic labor markets and the data have been collected through in-depth interviews with 91 authors in Iran. Multiple regression analysis is carried out to estimate the income penalty function for authors. The findings show that the average income penalty of Iranian writers is 72%, compared to the average income of alternative jobs, and that they annually lose 108 million Toman (i. e., foregone income) because they ignore better-paid alternative occupations to continue being literary authors. The resulting equation proves that the foregone income increases as authors write in more genres, as the number of literary award jury memberships rises, and as they gain higher academic degrees. Foregone income also grows as authors’ experience increases until 24 years, after which increasing the experience results in lower foregone income.

In this study, the reasons for the change in the share of employment between the two sectors of services and industry-mining during the years 1968-2016 have been investigated by using the method of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). According to the theoretical foundations, low productivity of the services sector, increase in per capita income, high capital stock in the services sector, increase in population and rent of natural resources (revenues from oil and gas) are among the important variables that affect the raise in the share of employment in the services sector compared to the industry-mining sector. The results show that the low productivity of the services sector compared to the industry-mining sector and the growth of the total population are two main factors increasing the employment share of the services sector. Revenues from oil and gas exports along with other sub-variables such as raising the exchange rate and government spending have been other factors in raising the share of employment in the services sector. Contrary to the theoretical foundations, per capita income variables and high capital stock in the services sector is not the reason for the increase in the share of employment in the services sector compared to the industry-mining sector in the Iran economy.

The pattern of comments from commercial political cycles aim at scrutinizing voters and government behavior. As the studied in this field based on opportunistic approach indicate that politicians try to attract voters through manipulating financial policies at times prior to the election in order to increase their winning chances. Among the campaigning tools available to candidates, construction and development budgets is a good option, since incumbents' opportunistic incentives before election direct budgets to more tangible activities such as, constructing bridges, roads, etc. In this study, in order to study elections (presidency and congressional) on construction and development budgets, we have used statistical data of all 28 states during 1999- 2016 through GMM method. Results show that, according to the opportunistic approach during the congressional election and presidential elections years, construction and development budgets have increased (per capita).

Tradesmen and marketers constitute an important and large part of the society and economy of any country. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of positivitytraining on hope for the future in guilds and bazaars in the context of Iran's economic sanctions. The statistical population of this study was all tradesmen and marketers in Bardaskan city. The research method is quasi-experimental with a pretest-posttest design with a control group. The sample was obtained by cluster sampling. Positive intervention in this study was performed based on Parks (2009) approach and in the form of 6 sessions on the experimental group. Data were analyzed by one-way analysis of covariance. Results showed that positive psychotherapy improved and increased hope for the future in tradesmen and marketers (p <0.05). As a result, positive psychotherapy is effective on hope for future of guilds and bazaars and can be used as a therapeutic and practical method, especially in the context of economic sanctions and special situation prevailing in Iran's economy.

In the last two decades, the microfinance industry has grown exponentially both in terms of the number and types of customers and service providers and in terms of methods and processes, with the goal of empowering the poorest people. Today, conventional microfinance is mainly based on a loan agreement with interest. Considering the prohibition of Riba in Islamic economics, it is necessary to use the Islamic contracts for microfinancing. Profit-making contracts, including Mubadala (exchange) and Musharakah (participation) because of their specific characteristics, can be used in this regard. However, the question to be asked here is which of the various types of these contracts are more appropriate for the development of Islamic microfinance activities? To answer this question first needs identifying the criteria for desirable contracts in microcredit system. In this paper, first we study the most important criteria and then we use them to ranking profit-making contracts according to applicability in Islamic microfinance system using fuzzy TOPSIS as one of the MCDM techniques. According to results there are 9 important criteria for this issue in microcredit system. Also the results show that, Murabaha, Jua'ala and Ijara are the most sutibale contracts for microcredit, respectively.

Considering the importance of employment in forming the economic and psychological context of people with disabilities and the need for government support in planning and development of the disability, this study aimed to design a public-supported employment model for the development of disability in Iran. A review of studies shows that such a model has not been studied in previous research and a comprehensive model for public-supported employment is essential.  Findings had shown a model with five dimensions of governmental, corporate, public, individual and occupational factors along with 29 components for disabled employment should be considered.

The results of this study can be used to promote the development of Entrepreneurial Disability in the country by Public policy makers and managers in the field of policy making and policy implementation. Because the research model takes into account both policy and operational levels.

Fiscal decentralization can effect on the government revenues and expenditures and consequently the budget deficit by influencing the level of corruption. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the long run effect of fiscal decentralization on the budget deficit in Iran through the corruption channel during the period of 1992-2017. For this purpose, the three indicators of fiscal decentralization of revenue, fiscal decentralization of expenditures, fiscal decentralization of autonomy power, corruption index and also some control variables including inflation and the share of oil revenues in GDP have been used. In order to estimate the model, Park co-integration test and Canonical Co-Integration Regression (CCR) approach have been applied. Based on the results from model estimation, all three indicators of fiscal decentralization reduce the budget deficit in the long run through the control of corruption channel. Therefore, providing the necessary conditions for the expansion of fiscal decentralization can help to reduce the budget deficit in Iran by controlling the level of corruption. According to other results, in the long run, inflation and the share of oil revenues in GDP have a positive and negative effect on the budget deficit, respectively.

After the global financial crisis, the pillars of the special system of bankruptcy (Resolution) of financial institutions were given special attention. In addition, many international standards for resolving banks have been developed by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) to gradually provide key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions. On the other hand, Islamic banking is growing rapidly and its potential impact on global financial stability can not be underestimated. Considering the importance of the issue, This paper examines the applicability of the Key Attributes to the resolution of islamic banks and and identify the mechanism of the resolution tools in the Islamic banking system and their probabilistic analysis in Iran. The results show that the recovery and resolution plans (RRPs) are a key component of international reforms to facilitate orderly resolution and its creation in Iran and banks that operate in accordance with the Shari'a must be accompanied by greater sensitivity and internal and international reform. Also a number of issues would need to be addressed for designing of resolution framework in the Islamic banking system, owing to Islamic banks’ unique governance structures and balance sheets. It recommends international guidance for the design of resolution framework in the banking system of Iran.