فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 96 (زمستان 1399)

The main goal of policies to increase the energy efficiency is reducing energy consumption, but this goal is limited by the rebound effect. In the literature of energy economics, there are two types of non-price and market tools to reduce rebound effects. Among the market tools, energy taxation is a favored approach. In the Iranian economy, where the prices of energy carriers, including electricity, are lower than their actual prices, and the government is paying consumers a hidden subsidy, trying to reduce energy subsidies is like taxing. In this paper, it is attempted to estimate recurrent effects by applying Social Accounting Matrix of 2011 and Computable General Equilibrium Model of Return Effects in two scenarios of 10% increase in electricity efficiency and simultaneous increase of 10% efficiency and 10% electricity price. The model results show that the energy rebound effects are 112% if efficiency is increased that means energy consumption growth by 1.2 percent but rebound effect may decreases to 99% if price and efficiency increase simultaneously. The high rebound effects observed are due to the relative price reduction of energy and thus to increased consumption. Also, the efficiency-enhancing policy also encourages 0.04% of the level of economic activity in manufacturing sectors, which is another factor in the increase in energy consumption as well as exports in this scenario 0.3% Growth. In contrast, in the policy of simultaneously increasing energy efficiency and price, the level of consumption will decrease by 0.1 percent, the level of activity of manufacturing sectors will be 0.08 percent and exports will be 0.5 percent.

The purpose of this study is to find an accurate estimate of the exchange rate-CPI relationship in Iran over the past three decades. The results of the Granger causality test in the frequency domain demonstrate a strong causation from the exchange rate to CPI especially in the long run. The results of the wavelet analysis show that in the currency crisis periods, the exchange rate-CPI correlation rises not only for the long run (low frequencies) but for the short run (high frequencies). According to the results of the state-space model, the exchange rate pass-through jumps in the currency crisis periods, consistent with the results obtained via the wavelet analysis.

Investigating the economic value of tourism areas is one of the topics of interest in studies of tourism economics. Investigating the economic value of recreational areas in terms of cost-benefit policy-making and tourism analysis is essential. The purpose of this study was to estimate the economic value of Falak al-Aflak castle of Khorram Abad by regional travel cost method. The research method is applied. The statistical population of the study included visitors to Falak al-Aflak castle. The sampling method is simple. In order to determine the size of the sample, since the size of the population is unknown, Cochranchr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39'))39chr(chr('39')39chr('39')))s formula was used to obtain the sample size of 306 persons that the required data collected through filling out the questionnaires in Nov 2019 by visiting travelers to the Castle. After extracting data from questionnaires completed by the sample members and estimating the research patterns, the research hypotheses were tested. Different software such as Eviews and Spss have been used in this research. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by the supervisor and its reliability was assessed by Cronbachchr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39'))39chr(chr('39')39chr('39')))s alpha method. The results of this study showed that entrance cost, income and distance were the main factors affecting tourism demand in Falak al-Aflak castle.

Predicting currency fluctuations and crises is an important step in the foreign exchange policy of countries. Given that the purpose of early warning systems or patterns is to anticipate crises, their use is essential to prevent economic crises, including currency crises. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to model and rank the early warning factors of currency crisis by Bayesian averaging method. For this purpose, 70 variables warning of the currency crisis during the period 1970-2018 for the most important trading partners of Iran that have experienced the currency crisis in floating and non-floating currency systems are examined. Selective warning variables include a wide range of macroeconomic variables and financial variables that reflect the state of the economy in the real, monetary, political, public, foreign, institutional, and structural sectors. The results of this study show that the designed system has a high ability to predict currency crises in the period under review and identify the most important warning factors. Overall, the results indicate that considering the currency governance system in the models of currency crisis warning, sometimes different variables are introduced as currency crisis warning; So that changes in foreign exchange market pressure, changes in real effective exchange rates, the ratio of international reserves to foreign debt, real GDP growth and the percentage of foreign direct investment to GDP in the floating exchange rate system and changes in foreign exchange market pressure, Inflation, real effective exchange rate changes, the ratio of international reserves to GDP, and the ratio of exports of goods and services to GDP in the non-floating system are important warning indicators.

This study examines the effects of demographic changes including decreasing fertility and increasing life expectancy and retirement age on the financial sustainability of the pension fund in Iran using the overlapping generation model and the Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) approach. The results of simulation and evaluation of impulse response functions and evaluation of correlation coefficients show that there is a positive correlation between the variables of fertility and life expectancy with the financial deficit of the pension fund. With a negative shock in the fertility, the pension fundchr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s deficit reacts negatively and deviates in the negative direction from the long-term equilibrium level and the pension fundchr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s financial stability improves. However, savings, capital stock and output react to this Shocks, negatively. On the other hand, based on the impulse response functions, with the occurrence of a positive shock in life expectancy, the fund deficit reacts positively and deviates from the long-run equilibrium level in a positive direction, and savings, capital stock and production also respond to this shock positively. Also, with a positive shock to working period or increase in retirement age, the fundchr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s financial deficit reacts negatively and deviates from the long-term equilibrium in a negative direction, and savings, capital stock and output also respond positively to this shock. Due to the results, with the increase of positive shock during the working period or increasing the retirement age, the average long-run equilibrium level of the pension fund deficit decreases and financial stability of the pension fund improves. Based on the results, the implementation of the policy of increasing the length of service and increasing the retirement age is recommended as a useful tool for the improving financial sustainability of pension funds in Iran.

Exchange rate fluctuations and the degree of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market through foreign reserves simultaneously determine the foreign exchange market pressure. This concept is considered as one of the important indicators related to the behavior of monetary authorities in policy-making, which affects other economic variables through foreign trade channels and inflation expectations. In this paper, foreign exchange market pressure is analyzed at the monetary policy function based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model for Iran. the behavior of policymakers is modeled against exchange rate shock and foreign earnings from oil exports shock. Exchange rate shocks are compared in two models. n the first model, the central bank adjusts its monetary policy in response to the foreign exchange market pressure index, and in the second model,the central bankchr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s monetary policy response to nominal exchange rate, based on other empirical studies of Iranchr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s  monetary policy. Based on the results of the first model, the exchange rate shock causes less fluctuations in inflation, production, consumption and investment rather than the second model, and the effects of exchange rate shock are discharged on the economic variables in a shorter period of time. Therefore, the effectiveness of the central bankchr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s monetary policy through sensitivity to foreign exchange market pressure will be higher than the nominal exchange rate.

The main objective of this study is to provide a model for Iranian industry structure estimation and determine the position of knowledge - based firms located in Science and Technology Parks of Semnan province. Researchers use concentration ratio indicators to estimate industry structure. This ratio represents the market share of some of the largest firms within an industry. For this purpose, first using the micro-data of Iranchr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s industrial sector in 2016 and using the lognormal model, the concentration ratio of 5 firms by two-digit industry codes (ISIC) was estimated and then the position of knowledge-based companies in Semnan province in this structure was determined. As a result of this research the Tobacco and Cigarette industry was monopolized industry. The number of industries active in the oligopoly structure is 5 industries, including "production of beverages", "production of coking coal and oil refining products", "production of other means of transportation", "production of textiles", "repair and installation of machinery and equipment". Also, 18 industries have a concentration ratio below 40%, among which the structure of 12 industries was classified as monopolistic competition and 6 industries as fully competitive. In base of researcher’s observations, 51 knowledge base enterprise have activated in Semnan Science and Technology Parks that have been specified their market structure by researcher separately. As a result of this research, 34 company have had monopolistic competition, 15 company have had perfect competition and 2 company have had oligopoly market structure. Finally express some offer about this research.

The fight against money laundering as a universal policy is on the agenda of all countries and parliaments. To create sustainable conditions and economic transparency, combating the phenomenon of money laundering is necessary. This issue is a specific issue of the country in international banking operations and interbank brokerage. The application of infrastructure approach factors, including all the effective aspects of the anti-money laundering mechanism, is of great importance. In this study, in order to identify the challenges in this area and achieve a model that includes a set of infrastructural factors in the fight against money laundering, in the qualitative part, the criteria raised by experts through face-to-face interviews and citing international standards and multi-stage coding, Content analysis, and fuzzy Delphi method and in a small part of the questionnaire and factor analysis technique and in fitting the model, SRMR the index has been used. The research findings indicate that the observance of infrastructure indicators in accordance with international standards by the banking system promotes the position of Iranian banks at the international level and limits money laundering through the banking system.

The development of trade with Islamic countries in the region, especially its neighbors, is important because it reduces the vulnerability of the countrychr(chr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39'))39chr(chr('39')39chr('39')))39chr(chr(chr('39') 39chr ('39')) 39chr (chr('39') 39chr ('39')))) s economy by developing strategic ties and expanding cooperation with countries in the region and the world. Expanding relations with neighboring countries, helping regional development, increasing Iranchr(chr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39'))39chr(chr('39')39chr('39')))39chr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39')) 39chr(chr ('39') 39chr ('39')))) s competitiveness in the region, as well as developing trade with countries in the Southwest Asia region are among the priorities of deve lopment programs and the focus of trade sector activity. As a country in the region of Southwest Asia, Iraq can be one of the countrychr(chr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39'))39chr(chr('39')39chr('39')))39chr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39')) 39chr(chr('39')39chr('39')))) s non-oil export markets. The main purpose of this article is to present the strategy of trade interactions between Iran and Iraq, based on identifying key key sectors of the Iranian economy. Therefore, based on the hypothetical elimination method and the apparent relative advantage index (RCA) according to the updated data-output tables of 2015, key sectors and Iranchr(chr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39'))39chr(chr('39')39chr('39'))) 39chr (chr (chr('39' )39chr ('39')) 39chr(chr('39') 39chr ('39')))) s export advantage to Iraq are modeled. The obtained results of this modeling are summarized in the form of four areas of significance-perfor mance analysis, so that the first area of ​​this analysis is at the highest level in terms of importance (key sector) and level of performance (export advantage); Therefore, the key parts of Iranchr(chr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39'))39chr(chr('39')39chr('39'))) 39chr (chr(chr('39') 39chr ('39')) 39chr(chr ('39')39chr('39'))))s advantage are the parts that should be located in this area. The modeling results show that seven sectors of Iranchr (chr(chr (chr('39')39chr('39'))39chr(chr('39')39chr('39')))39chr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39'))39chr(chr ('39')39chr('39')))) s ninety six sector economy are the same key sectors with advantages, including: "manufacture of base iron and steel", "manufacture of leather and allied products", "manufacture of household appliances", "manufacture, repair and installation of other Unclassified artifacts elsewhere and recycled "," manufacturing of multi-purpose machinery "," manufacturing of wood and wood products and cork "," manufacturing of various food and beverage products ". In the first place, the policy strategy is that policymakers must maintain and continue their strategy towards these sectors, and in the next step, to balance the index and the importance of each of them in order to bring the most benefit. The policy strategy that should be adopted in the next step is to prioritize the fourth sector of this analysis because these sectors are considered as potentially advantageous key and will be realized by improving performance and increasing the countrychr(chr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39')) 39chr(chr('39')39chr('39')))39chr(chr(chr('39')39chr('39')) 39chr (chr ('39') 39chr ('39'))))s interest.

Fiscal policies are one of the most important policies that are used in the field of demand management. Implementing fiscal policies is one of the most important policy-making tools to achieve macroeconomic goals such as Distribution ‌Fair ‌Income, ‌Increasing ‌Rate ‌Growth ‌Economic ‌And ‌Employment ‌And Stabilizing ‌Price. Since economic policies have a significant impact on financial market returns, this study investigates the impact of fiscal policies on stock market returns in selected oil exporting countries using panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR). In this study, to select a statistical population, the method of systematic elimination was used in the period 2004 to 2018. The variables studied are GDP gap, budget balance, public debt, GDP and capital market returns. Based on the results of the graphs of the recentered influence functions, the effects of GDP gap, public debt are positive on stock returns and the effect of budget balance on stock market is negative. The effects of fluctuations of stock market returns on itself is positive too. According to these graphs, these effects are bidirectional. Also, the results of the forecast error variance decomposition analysis confirm the bidirectional relation between stock market and fiscal policy variables.

In this paper, the effect of social capital on the efficiency of government expenditures has been studied in the two sectors of education and health during the period 1364-1396. social capital has been estimated by The Multiple Causes-Impact (MIMIC) approach, and efficiency of government expenditures in both education and health is estimated by the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Bootstrap data envelopment analysis approaches. The effect of social capital on the efficiency of government expenditures are measured by the regression model of the deficit probe in both education and health.
 The results of estimating social capital show that the trend of social capital is declining by the method of  Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes during the study period. Also, the efficiency scores of government expenditures has been measured by Data Envelopment Analysis and Bootstrap Data Envelopment Analysis in Iran. The results show that on average, public spending is inefficient in education and health.
Findings of the fractional probit model show, the effect of social capital is positive and significant on the efficiency of government spending in both education and health. The effect of per capita income, economic growth, government size, inflation and trade openness is different on efficiency of government expenditures in education and health sectors.
 For example, the impact of economic growth is positive on the efficiency of government education and health spending. While the effect of government size is negative on the efficiency of government education and health spending.

The growing popularity of virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, an Internet innovation with a function similar to "fiat" money or government money, due to the high velocity and efficiency in transactions (especially overseas payments) as well as the elimination of the additional operating costs incurred by intermediaries attract the policymakers and global decision-making centers attention. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the impact of virtual currency (Bitcoin) expansion on the demand of Iranian formal money in the form of cash-in-advance model (CIA) with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. To do so, the data of the period of 1989-2017 with seasonal sequence has been used. In the proposed model, it is assumed that households show their money demand in two forms of official money and virtual money. Maintenance and demand for virtual currency can have a significant impacts on the macroeconomic variables. In this study, the shock caused by the price of Bitcoin and its volume of transactions has been considered as an indicator of demand for virtual currency. The results show that as the demand for virtual currency increases, the demand for the formal currency declines and consequently the income of seigniorage decreases.