مجله تحقیقات منابع آب ایران
سال شانزدهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 55، زمستان 1399)

In recent decades, increasing water demand in Iran has resulted in excessive water usage, specially groundwater. Due to the increase in aquifer water usage, groundwater management should considerate to meet consumers needs and achieving a fair benefit in addition aquifer sustainability and future needs. This study aimed to manage and reduce water usage of Haji Abad aquifer in Hormozgan province. first, Groundwater simulation model was calibrated and validated by MODFLOW software and then, the new operation wells discharge values were calculated by using the cooperative method (bankruptcy) and these values were entered into the simulation model and the results were compared with the current situation. In this study, five bankruptcy methods proportional (P), Constrained Equal Award (CEA), Constrained Equal Loss (CEL), Talmud (Tal) and Piniles (Pin) are used to manage operation wells discharge, The annual discharge values of the operation wells are claimer demand and the amount of groundwater recharge which calculated by the simulation model in each polygon are the available water. In these five methods, groundwater head increased and overall aquifer status improved relatively well. Finally, the Bankruptcy Allocation stability index (BASI) for five methods was calculated and compared.compared.

The Iran’s Supreme Water Council (SWC) was established in 2000 with the aim of creating the necessary institutional and organizational bases for the coordination of policies on water supply, distribution and consumption. However, two decades after its inception, the fact that the water management issues are becoming more complex and deeper and the discrepancies in the policies, actions, and their consequences are widening, raise the questions that; to what extent has the SWC been successful in its missions, and to what extent has it had the necessary effectiveness and authority in resolving the conflicts and applying good water governance in the country. Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to present the results and achievements in identifying, reviewing and analyzing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing the SWC and to conclude the strategies and action plan needed to improve the performance of the SWC. The methodology used is based on the formation of an expert working group from different disciplines and sectors and holding brain storming meetings to harvest ideas of stakeholders. Finally the study employed a combination of SWOT technology and matrix technique (IFE-EFE Matrix) to evaluate internal and external factors for analyzing the results. The study identified 11 strengths (S), 10 weaknesses (W), 9 opportunities (O) and 7 threats (T) in regards of the SWC. According to the calculated scores for internal and external factors (i.e. 2.34 and 2.62, respectively), the intersection of these two values in the SWOT diagram located in the “WO” zone, which indicated that the main strategy to be followed to improve the authority of the SWC, would be an adaptive (conservative) strategy. For greater effectiveness and authority of the SWC, a new vision and mission was developed. Also, five sub-main strategies and 21 actions were identified to improve the performance and authority of the SWC. The proposed action plan was tailored to the identified sub-strategies, and then weighted and prioritized. The results indicated that in good water governance and for coordinated policy-making, the spirit of inter-institutional cooperation between government institutions should be accepted as a fundamental principle and the social interactions of the council should be increased. It is also necessary to expand the council's cooperation with ministries within the executive branch, the judiciary branch, the legislative branch, universities, non-governmental organizations, and other stakeholders.

Ensuring water security in the face of population growth and resource scarcity has posed a serious challenge for policymakers in urban areas and led them to water demand management (WDM) approaches. Water conservation as a key factor in WDM is an effective solution to the sustainable urban water supply that includes two categories: water curtailment behaviors and water-efficiency behaviors. Given that the voluntary acceptance of water conservation behaviors by individuals, understanding the psychological determinant processes of these behaviors is an important aspect in designing effective policies and interventions in this area. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate factors affecting water conservation intentions and behaviors among Tehran citizens using the theory of planned behavior (TPB). The data collected using both online and offline surveys (N=820) in Tehran by a structured questionnaire, which its validity was confirmed by experts, and its reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha coefficient. Data analyze conducted through the structural equation modeling. Based on the results, the TPB can explain 83% and 40% of the variance in water curtailment intentions and behaviors, respectively, and 57% and 37% of the variance in water-efficiency intentions and behaviors, respectively. The results also suggested attitude and perceived behavioral control affect the intention regarding both behaviors, but subjective norm does not affect the intention for both behaviors. In addition, the results revealed that both behaviors influenced by intentions and perceived behavioral control. Finally, based on the results, implications for improving residential water conservation and suggestions for future research are provided.

One of the dimensions of sustainable livelihood, especially in rural communities, is to pay attention to the agricultural economy and the amount of income from agricultural products. In the present study, to evaluate the effects of drought on agricultural and rural communities, the Rural Socio-Economic Drought Index has been introduced. The index uses income from cultivated areas, household costs, and the financial ability to deal with the consequences of drought to take into account the Socio-economic conditions of communities in the face of drought. Due to the importance of the Zayandehroud basin as one of the most stressful basins, Isfahan and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari provinces have been selected as the study area. The course of study includes 29 years from 1989-90 to 2016-17. The classification of the Rural Socio-Economic Drought Index was performed by the Jenks natural failure algorithm, and the result was zoning of the region into low to severe crisis based on flexibility and ability to cope with the effects of drought in terms of impact on household income. The results show that Falavarjan, Khomeini Shahr, Isfahan, and Najafabad regions have been in the most critical situation among the 9 regions of the Zayandehrood basin for 18, 15, 12, and 8 years, respectively. The maximum intensity of rural socio-economic drought in Khomeini Shahr and Falavarjan regions was 6.77 and 6.37 units, respectively. The results of the application of this index were in good agreement with the field findings and it is a suitable indicator for assessing socio-economic drought.

Water scarcity is one of the most important and influential factors in the pattern of crop cultivation and farmers' profits. This research was conducted to evaluate the effects of rainfall reduction on cultivation pattern and farmers' profits in the Tashk-Bakhtegan basin. To this purpose, a composed model which includes two parts, hydrological and economic was used. In the hydrological section, the water evaluation and planning system model (WEAP) and in the economic section, the positive mathematical planning model (PMP) were used. In this research, the effects of rainfall reduction at two scenarios of 20 and 40% reduction on the agricultural sector are determined by determining the amount of water delivered to this sector and then the reaction of farmers is examined through their cultivation pattern and profits. This modeling was done regionally in 5 separate zones of the Tashk-Bakhtegan basin and compared to the base year (2006-2007). The results of this research showed that with the implementation of the scenario of 20% rainfall reduction, the area under cultivation and farmers 'profits decreased by 33 and 29%, respectively, and at the scenario of 40% rainfall reduction, the amount of the cultivation area and farmers' profits decreased by 36 and 32%, respectively. Among the different crops, the most changes in the area under cultivation were related to alfalfa and the area under cultivation of rice did not changed due to its high profits.

Water resources management needs true understanding of food and energy management with focus on Agriculture Sector. Water-Energy-Food Framework in the basis of supply and exploitation of resources is trying to manage and operate different sources of energy, water and food together with respect to scenario analysis. In addition to sustainability concepts, environmental costs such as Co2 emission is another important factor that should be mentioned. GHG emissions generally and CO2 emission in particular that comes from the exploitation of fossil fuels and the impact that they have on ecosystem. In this research 6 Indicators due to use of solar PV farms and eight scenarios were established in combination and singular manner that focuses on sustainability and utilization of the resources. The scenarios have been implemented after simulating water and food in the WEAP software, rainfall-runoff model and calibration in Lenjanat Sub-basin as case study. Eight scenarios are: 1) Trend scenario 2) Crop pattern scenarios 3) Increasing irrigation efficiency 4) implementation of solar PV farms and three combination of these scenarios in addition to increasing pump efficiency. Exploitation of surface and groundwater resources and specifically GW resources and scenario 6 is the first rank selected among all other scenarios. In Addition, scenarios 1 that is named trend scenario is at the last scenarios selected. Water is the most precious factor in food production. In conclusion, application of scenario that combination of the scenarios 3and4 is the selected strategy based on analysis that have been made.

Efficient forecast of precipitation and temperature with a one-month horizon can provide managers with an exceptional opportunity to plan water resources and deal with floods and droughts. The application of proper post-processing and bias correction methods can much improve the accuracy of these predictions. In this study, the S2S (Sub seasonal to Seasonal) precipitation and temperature forecasts of ECMWF were evaluated in one of the important basins of Iran. A variety of methods were used for post-processing and bias correction of these predictions, and the results were compared with different evaluation criteria. Quantile mapping (QM), Bayesian model averaging (BMA), Support vector regression (SVR), an Empirical equation for bias correction of temperature, and some hybrid methods were applied to forecasts. The BMA outperformed the other methods in improving both temperature and precipitation forecasts. Raw precipitation and temperature forecasts were only applicable in 2 or 3 months of the year, but post-processing methods were able to accurately improve precipitation in half of the months, especially rainy months. The hybrid of empirical equation-BMA in 10 months of the year was led to better results than the estimate of the next month's temperature using climatological data.

The subsidence of the plains structure can be directly due to the drop in groundwater level and the destruction of aquifer alluvial tissue. In this study, in the Izeh plain, the MODFLOW mathematical model was performed by extracting a raster map of saturated aquifer subsidence in the ten-year period from 2008 to 2019 and the forecast period for three climatic scenarios between 2019 and 2029. The subsidence model was developed by developing the SUB package in the limited numerical code structure structure of MODFLOW. The quantitative groundwater flow model was calibrated using PEST automation code and sensitivity analysis. The results show that the mathematical model used to simulate Izeh aquifer has a relative relative error NRMSE, which confirms the ideal modeling after reviewing the validation process. An examination of the vertical changes in the structure of the land showed that in the long term of 20 years, with the climatic assumptions raised, the aquifer level will occur a total of up to 1.5 meters and a subsidence of at least 0.9 meters. If the aquifer alluvial structure is destroyed, this amount may be less than these figures, but in return, it is equal to the conditions without returning the groundwater aquifer feed.

This study examines how water rights are distributed and traded between farmers in the Mojen region. Furthermore, based on field study and interviews with a group of farmers, an agent-based model is suggested for simulation of Mojen Water Market (MWM). Markets, such as MWM, are far different from the modern ones in developed countries; nontheless the results of the study declared that by eliminating barriers and providing an appropriate background for sbetter water right trads, water markets like MWM will be able to play a pivotal and productive role in the water resources management. We demonstrated how the increase in interactions between farmers as well as cooperation of the Mojen Irrigation Company and the farmers, lead to productive and more profitable results. We showed that as the farmers interactions increased, the average number of farmers below the poverty line would be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, we assessed the water market’s performance, from the cultivated area’s viewpoint, under dry years condition. For instance, during the sever drought of 2006-2008 period, the result showed a mild reduction in crop cultivation compared to the normal situation.

Climate change and its effect on droughts has led to overuse of groundwater resources and endangered the sustainability of these resources. Climate change studies shows that the recent attempts are not solely concentrated on “impact assessment” and “adaptation” is winning more focus in the studies. Accordingly, presenting appropriate strategies is of importance for increasing of surface and groundwater conjunctive use system adaptability with adverse effects of this phenomenon. In the present study, the adaptability of cyclic and non-cyclic conjunctive use systems with the aim of increasing groundwater sustainability while reducing costs and water shortage have been compared by considering climate change scenarios. In this regard, in order to simulate climate change in the Basin of Abhar River, precipitation and temperature variables are extracted from the results of three global atmospheric circulation models under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the period 2021-2031. Data spatial downscaling was performed using the M5 decision tree algorithm. In the next step, the Wavelet-M5 hybrid model was used to predict runoff values for rainfall-runoff modeling. The Kharrufa method has also been used to calculate evaporation in future seasons. In the next step, these values were provided as input to the cyclic and non-cyclic multi-objective optimization models. Results showed that, CSS operation strategy improves the conjunctive use system adaptability, compared to the optimal operation strategy which employs the NCSS approach, so that in the cyclic approach, the sustainability of the groundwater resources is guaranteed by about 18% more than of the same in the non-cyclic approach.

Unplanned operation and excessive extraction of groundwater in coastal areas increases the risk of seawater intrusion; so water quality monitoring and management in these areas are of great importance. In this study, an optimal monitoring network with minimum number of wells in Talesh coastal aquifer is designed according to the aquifer vulnerability map and evaluation of the accuracy of monitoring network. In this regard, the aquifer vulnerability map was prepared using the modified DRASTIC index; and genetic algorithm was used to optimize the monitoring network. Three objectives were used in the optimization model including (1) maximizing the correlation between vulnerability index and EC values, (2) minimizing the number of monitoring wells, and (3) maximizing the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency. NS, represented the match between the calculated EC distribution obtained from existing monitoring wells and those wells from the newly generated network. Applying the weighting factor w for economic objective, the three above-mentioned objectives are integrated in a single objective function and different weights of w were evaluated. The results showed that the selection of an optimal solution greatly depends on the weighting coefficient w and the best weight was selected according to the vulnerability index and the accuracy of monitoring network. Due to long-term quantitative and qualitative changes in groundwater, it is better to periodically evaluate and redesign groundwater quality monitoring network so that the network could effectively use in planning and applying methods to improve groundwater quality.

Parameter estimation is one of the main tasks in the hydrologic modeling. Parameter values can either be specified logically or blindly calibrated. In distributed physics-based models, it is arguably possible to specify parameters using catchment characteristics, hydrologic knowledge, the physics behind the parameters and how they function in the model. Such logic-based parameter specification is called as parameter allocation. This study tries to practice this modeling approach using the MIKE SHE model and simulate the overland flow in the Ziarat watershed. The model was executed using both approaches for a certain period from 01.23.2013 to 09.21.2014, and for the period from 04.15.2016 to 09.21.2017 as validation. The results of the simulation based on each of the approaches were evaluated by the Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta efficiency criteria. Based on these efficiency criteria, the model in the parameter allocation approach has a good performance, and shows consistency in the validation period. Regarding the water balance, the results of the allocation approach are more resoanable and meaningful. Based on this, it can be concluded that spending more time to better understand the watershed charactristics and parameters of the model leads to more acceptable and consistent results that reduces the need for calibration significantly.

Precipitation forecasting models play important role in the performance of flood and meteorological warning systems. In this research, the efficiency of five numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which exist in the TIGGE database, are assessed to determine the best temporal resolution of forecasted datasets at distinct climate regions of Iran, during 2014-2018. Findings show that by increasing the lead time the accuracy of all forecasts decreases significantly. Moreover, most of the NWP models, especially the ECMWF and UKMO perform well, based on correlation coefficient (CC) and RMSE metrics, up to lead time of 3 days. Also, results indicate that by removing biases from the raw forecast datasets, the performance of all NWP models in different lead times increases considerably. After bias correction, the RMSE values of ECMWF, JMA, and KMA models in the lead time of 10 days reduces about 70, 65, and 73%, respectively, and, except for JMA, all NWP models perform well in most climate regions. The JMA model in humid climate zones (north and west parts of Iran) has a high level of bias and leads to unreliable forecasts.

Defining conflict is not as simple as counting its instances, and there is no single, comprehensive, and agreed definition of the conflict in the research literature. It has been one of the main and fundamental challenges in the field of conflict studies in general and water conflicts in particular, which is still persisting. The aim of this paper is to rethink the nature and main concepts of conflicts by trying to explain their functions for dealing with water conflicts. Accordingly, using the analytical-descriptive method, this article analyzes and rethinks the nature of conflicts and their main concepts under four main questions. In addition, two major areas used in the studies of water conflicts, namely game theory and the conflict-cooperation approach, have been analyzed in comparison with novel concepts of conflict knowledge. The results reveal that most studies related to water conflicts do not pay attention to nature, main concepts, and features of conflicts. They also show that the applied and dominant approaches and perspectives in dealing with water conflicts are in accordance with the traditional philosophy of the early twentieth century. Furthermore, the tools used in this area are also associated with the Cold War period while the traditional philosophical approaches for water conflicts and the use of purely technical tools do not comply with the complex dimensions of conflicts in water systems. The results also show that conflict knowledge has resorted to new tools of conflict analysis/mapping, a concept that is necessary to rely on deal with water conflicts.

Coupling of meteorological models with distributed hydrological models and reducing uncertainties related to downscaling is one of the major challenges in flood prediction. This study with the aim of predicting floods, demonstrates possibility of coupling the WRF model with the WRF-Hydro model, which is a hydrological-hydraulic, distributional, and physical model. For calibration, the Kashkan watershed is chosen as the study area due to its high flooding potential. According to observational flood hydrograph in study area, two severe flood events in three hydrometric stations were selected for calibration. Based on sensitivity analysis, the parameters of infiltration control, surface retention depth, surface roughness, and channel Manning’s roughness are considered as the most effective parameters. The use of these parameters will make it possible to calibrate the volume and shape of flood hydrograph to achieve accurate results. Afterward, Step by step method is used for determining the optimal values of parameters are identified in the sensitivity analysis. Poldakhtar station, located at the terminus of the basin is chosen for calibration for one event. In the next step, the calibrated model was evaluated based on the optimal parameters set for other stations and events. The evaluation results of the WRF-Hydro with optimized parameters verify the capability of the WRF-Hydro for simulating flood in the steep slope watershed after calibration. Moreover, the main characteristics of hydrograph like volume, timing and peak flow rate are simulated accusatively.

Abstact:The relationship between peak flood and watershed area has always ben used for predition at ungaged basins. In a region with homogenous hydrologic resonse this relationship changes with a similar ratio which is called simple saling. If this ratio changes it would result in multiscaling relationship between peak floos and watrshed area and therefore, basin area cannot be used for flood discharge estimation at ungagfed basin alone. Therfore it is necessary ro evalute this before developing regional flood model.This study investigates the spatial scale method in two Caspian Sea basin and Karkheh river basin and then compares the results of two basin. To this end, peak discharge for the 46 hydrometric stations in the Caspian Basin and 24 stations in the Karkheh basin have been selected. These stations have similar hydrological behavior among the stations in their basin. The statistical method of the spatial scale at these stations was performed using the probability weight moments of annual peak discharge and area covered by each station. The results showed that in the Caspian Sea basin the parameter of the spatial scale is simple and in the Karkhe basin the multiscale mode of the spatial scale exists. Therefore, it can be said that for estimating the discharge in the ungaged regions for the Karkheh basin, it is not possible to use the flood index and the discharge-area power relationship. While this is feasible in the Caspian Sea basin.

Nowadays, due to population growth, urban development and lack of fresh (drinking) water resources, the discovery of new ways of water production is of great importance. One of the new methods of producing the drinking (fresh) water at low capacities is the use of air humidity, which is known as condensed water production system. In the present research, drinking water production systems have been studied with the aim of obtaining the optimal length and evaluating the parameters affecting the amount of water produced in condensed systems. The obtained results show that 2.1 Kg water/day will be approximately extracted with considering D=0.2 m,y=0.5 m,L=15m,T_i=70 ℃,H_r=70 %. Sensitivity analysis has been also performed on various parameters and soil type. The obtained results of this analysis also show that air temperature and relative humidity have the greatest effect on the amount of produced water, and also sand, gravel, wet soil and clay produce the highest amount of water respectively. So, this research work may be beneficial and useful for human comfort and convenience. Finally, suitable and good results are obtained by the proposed method.

Accurate spatial estimation of precipitation plays a key role in many hydrological modelling, water resources planning and agricultural management studies. In order to estimate high-resolution precipitation in the current research, an estimation model based on PRISM framework considering Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and other spatial attributes is developed and applied to Sefidroud basin during the years 2000-2015. In the first step, the monthly results were compared with modified Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) as a benchmark method. Considering both models’ degrees of freedom, the parameters are calibrated with Genetic Algorithm in annual time scale and the obtained parameters are utilized to estimate model monthly cross validation error. According to the monthly results, both models had roughly same statistical performance in estimating precipitation at the selected rain gauges. In spite of similar statistical performance of the models, the spatial distribution of precipitation provided by the PRISM based method is more consistent with topographic pattern and existing evidences. In the next step the proposed model’s ability to estimate mean monthly precipitation is compared with ordinary kriging method and according to the results, in wet months the developed model and in dry months kriging method represents more optimal results. According to small amount of summer precipitation, PRISM based approach is considered to be a better tool for spatial interpolation of precipitation than kriging.

In this paper, the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Reduction (ICHRR) are quantified using three approaches based on regression, climate elasticity and water balance models. These approaches are based on finding the location of the occurring an abrupt statistical change (breakpoint) in runoff time series. In this paper, the effect of locating the breakpoint(s) on the mentioned quantified impacts is studied through sensitivity analysis. The performance of the mentioned three approaches is evaluated by applying them on Zayandehrud river discharge which is subjected to significant human induced changes such as dramatic increase of the area of agricultural lands and inter-basin water transfer projects. The water balance model is calibrated and verified for the period of 1976 to 1984. The sensitivity analysis shows that among several years with potential of the occurring a breakpoint, considering the year of 2006 as the breakpoint, the estimated values of ICHRR are more realistic. These results are in accordance with the observations including the time series of climate variables, agricultural land areas and inter-basin water transfer discharge. Also, if the impact of inter-basin water transfer on increasing runoff is removed from the runoff time series, the impact of climate change on runoff reduction based on all the three approaches is mostly close to zero.

Today, due to the increasing demand for water and the non-renewability and pollution of fossil fuels, solar desalination is a sustainable altervative for water supply. The low performance of simple solar stills has made them one of the most research fields in the world. One of the methods used in this field is the use of energy storage materials such as sand inside the water-desalination basin. In this study, the effect of relative height of water in sand on the performance of a simple solar desalination plant has been studied. For this purpose, four solar stills were built in Esfarayen, Iran (latitude 36.20 and longitude 57.67) and the effect of relative height of water to sand and the capillary effect of water in sand were studied. The height of sand in the solar stills was 10 cm and the relative water to sand heights were considered 1, 0.75, 0.5 and 0.25. The experiments were performed for 4 days in late July 2020 for 16 hours every day. The results indicated that the sand containing solar still, in the state of full contact of water and sand (relative height=1), had the best productivity and thermal efficiency in comparison with the other cases that the water level was lower than sand surface. Therefore, it seems that placing sand in a solar desalination pond in full contact with water can be a good option to increase its efficiency.

This study analyzes the Uncertainty arising from the assumption of fitting the Gamma distribution to the time series of discharge data in calculating the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). Using the time series of monthly and annual discharge data in 30 hydrometric stations located in the Urmia Lake Basin, the efficiency of Gamma distribution in fitting discharge data was investigated. The results showed that the Gamma distribution in the fitting of the discharge data series was recognized as the superior distribution in only 1.5% of the total cases. According to Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, a significant difference was observed between the experimental distribution of discharge data and the distribution of Gamma in 25% of cases, which increases to about 57% in the first and last months of the wet year. In contrast, the Wakeby distribution was recognized as the best distribution in fitting the discharge data series in 31% of cases. The highest displacement of hydrological drought classes was observed with the use of Wakeby distribution compared to Gamma distribution in the monthly scale of Ghabeghloo station in August (96%) and in the annual scale of Ghasemloo station (54%). It was observed that by calculating SDI based on Wakeby distribution compared to Gamma distribution, the highest frequency of displacement in annual and monthly scales is related to normal class and is equal to 25% and 43%, respectively.