نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 43 (پاییز 1399)

Coordination between monetary and financial policies is essential due to the feedback effects of the policies as well as intertemporal decision-makings; As policies enforced by an institution may affect policies adopted by the another entity in a destructive manner, the welfare of the society may be reduced ultimately. Therefore, in order to achieve the desired economic goals, appropriate institutional arrangements and creating a mechanism for the adequate coordination between these policy enforcers is required. In this study, after modeling the structural equations of the Iranian economy, the optimal rule for the monetary and fiscal policymaker, in form of the different policy games, was extracted. then, the basic equations were estimated using the Generalized method of moments (GMM) over the period 2005-2016, and their parameters were used in games simulation (in three situations: normal game, Stackelberg leadership game, as well as cooperative game). The games were simulated using programming with Matlab software, and the value of the minimum losses incurred for each player and community was calculated. Comparison and analysis of the results shows that the best welfare is created by the cooperation of both monetary and financial institutions. But if it is not possible to establish a coordinating institution between the two, central bank leadership is suggested as the best interaction.

Today, foreign direct investment is an important factor in creating broad economic changes for all countries, especially developing countries. Therefore, considering the importance of attracting foreign investment in the Iranian economy, the present study has examined the effect of economic sanctions and exchange rate uncertainty on FDI absorption in Iran using fuzzy regression model during the period 1990-2018. The results showed that high-intensity sanctions, which were mostly economic and comprehensive sanctions (such as the Central Bank and Iran oil sales sanctions), had a much deeper impact on capital inflows than low-intensity sanctions. Have had. It was also shown that the main obstacle to attracting foreign direct investment in Iran is the severe sanctions, which, like a high wall, overshadow other factors and have greatly reduced the incentives for foreign direct investment in Iran. Also, according to other findings, exchange rate uncertainty has a negative effect on attracting foreign direct investment in Iran. This finding confirms that the widespread exchange rate uncertainty in the Iranian economy has created an environment of uncertainty for investors to make decisions. Because it is difficult to predict profitability in the commercial and non-commercial sectors, as well as the cost of new capital goods.

The negative correlation between economic growth and the natural resources endowment is called the "curse of resources" or "paradox of plenty" in the development economics literature. So far, many econometric studies have tested this hypothesis, but without any decisive conclusion. The main reason for this is due to the dynamic complexity of the problem. This paper presents a theoretical system dynamics model to address the fundamental question of whether natural resources endowment is a "curse" or "blessings". The model's simulation results reveal that the probability of natural resource wealth hindering economic growth, thus undermining socioeconomic development, is negligible. This probability is stronger in the short term rather than in the long run. Further, weak social and political institutions can increase the adverse effects of natural resource wealth. It is also shown that, similar to ordinary goods or personal income, revenues from resource exports follow the law of diminishing marginal utility.

Energy has a crucial role as an input of production or final good to achieve the economic growth and development. Meanwhile, the energy intensity index is the main index for measurement of the efficiency and productivity of energy consumption. Energy intensity index in Iran is higher than other countries, and romoval of energy subsidies has not been affected yet to decline the rate of energy intensity. The importance of non-price energy policies in the process of reducing energy intensity has led to the analysis of energy intensity decomposition as a solution to identify factors affecting energy consumption reduction. In this study, the energy intensity index for 2001-2011 via structural decomposition analysis is decomposed into five components as energy intensity effect, technology effect, demand structure effect, consumption pattern effect and scale effect. The results show that the main effect of increasing the energy intensity is the scale effect and the lowest one is the effect of consumption pattern. Furthermore, industrial sectors reveal a higher energy intensity effect.

Identifying the causes of inflation has always been one of the most important questions in macroeconomics. Developing world trade has led the international economics indicators to enter into inflation modeling. Accordingly, one of the variables that can affect inflation is the degree of openness. Theoretical foundations expect openness of countries to reduce the inflation rate. The amount of inflation has a significant effect on the type of impact openness on the inflation rate. Therefore, this relationship must be considered in the hypothesis testing method. Therefore, this study tests the above hypothesis in 4 groups of countries by using Panel Quantile Regressions In the period 2019-1980: 1- European (7 countries) 2- East Asia and Pacific (10 countries) 3- Middle East and North Africa (9 countries) 4- Latin America and Caribbean (18 countries). The results of the study show that the inflation rate often decreases with openness, but this effect was closely explained to the size of inflation and the structure of the country's groups. Trade openness has had the least impact on inflation in East Asia and the Pacific and the largest impact on inflation in the Middle East and North Africa. In addition, the above results change with the change in the trade openness index, so that increasing exports will reduce the negative effect of imports on inflation.

The close correlation between the Exchange market, Oil and Gold, markets have ever been significant for policymakers generally. Recent fluctuations of markets in question in Iran will extend the significance of this study particularly. Therefore, this paper is investigating the mentioned trends and related cycles of the above three markets. By using Markov-switching models firstly, it identifies and analyzes the cycles in the exchange market, oil, and gold markets. Secondly, it is applying non-parametric models to determine the correlation between the very cycles from 1991:Q1-2020:Q2. The results suggest that there is a significant and positive relationship between exchange rates and gold which is at the same time consistent with the cycles as well. That of oil and exchange rate is significant and negative in Iran are in the same periods. Also, the exchange rate and oil compared to the exchange rate and gold are much more at the same regime. In addition, the correlation between exchange rates and oil is stronger than that of exchange rates and gold in the same periods. By applying the results of this article, Iranian policymakers can predict the trends of cycles and can design policies to fix the current fluctuations. By so doing they can resolve the recent macro instability in the Iranian economy and improve the adequate sustainability too.

 We investigate the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on the conditional distribution of the unemployment duration in advanced countries to understand how the time of job searching reacts to the macroeconomic policies. We gather the data of four advanced countries, including the United States, Canada, France, and Australia over two last decades. Then, we apply the Bayesian quantile method to do the empirical analysis. We find some pieces of evidence that monetary and fiscal policies heterogeneously affect different parts of the distribution of unemployment duration. Our estimates show that government budget surplus is positively correlated with all quantiles of the unemployment duration. In addition, nominal interest rate is negatively associated with the lower parts of the distribution of the unemployment duration while this correlation is positive for high quantiles.