نشریه اقتصاد و تجارت نوین
سال پانزدهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 48، پاییز 1399)

Before Post-Keynesians, theories on the relationship between money growth and inflation had largely been shaped around the positive relationship and that money causes inflation. Then the idea was raised that there may be no correlation between money growth and inflation, or in case of existence, the causality is reversed. In the Iranian economy money growth and inflation were volatile during last six decades and have experienced different situations. Considering theoretical and empirical literature and the experience of volatile money growth and inflation in Iran, this issue is important that whether the causality between money growth and inflation is constant, or, in years of high inflation, reverse causality can play a significant role in destabilizing money dynamics? In this regard, this paper performs a nonlinear empirical test using Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive model. Findings show that three different regimes can be identified during 1961-2017 period. In the zero regime, where broad money growth is noticeably greater than inflation, there is a one-way causality from money growth to inflation. In regime one, where both variables have experienced slower rates, there has been a bilateral causality between them, and in regime two, where inflation rate has been substantially high, a one-way causality is seen from inflation to money growth. The policy implication of this study is primarily to control money growth and secondly to control other determinants of inflation in high inflation periods to prevent the reproduction of liquidity growth or the reverse causality.

Increasing final demand in the economy is one of the variables affecting production and value-added growth. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of final demand components on changes of value-added with emphasis on the role of exports between 2011 and 2016 using the Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) approach in the input-output model. The statistical bases of this study are two input-output tables of 2011 and 2016. The results of the model showed that the change in the structure of exports (with the volume of exports being constant) between the two years under study has increased the value added of the whole economy by 73662.31 billion Rials. The decrease in the volume of exports between the two years has also reduced the added value of the whole economy by 12443.2 billion Rials. The most positive effect of restructuring belonged to the three sectors of "transportation and communications", "wholesale and retail" and "water, electricity and gas". The value- added of these three sectors due to this factor has increased 92481.94, 88672.52 and 45720.77 billion Rials, respectively. On the other hand, the value-added of the two sectors "crude oil and natural gas" and "chemical, rubber and plastics" have the greatest negative effect of the restructuring of exports. The value- added of these sectors due to this factor has decreased by 260550.29 and 12312.67 billion Rials, respectively.

Todays, underground economy has been changed into an unavoidable problem for many world's economies (especially in developing). This subject has a significant effect on macro variables of economy and causes to distortion of formal indexes. So exact estimation of this phenomenon regardless of its difficulty in order to exact economy policy making is necessary. So, goal of this study is estimating size of underground economy in selected developing countries with natural resource abundance during 2004-2015 through multiple reasons approach – Multiple effects (MIMIC) and lisrel software. Results of estimating the underground economy show size of underground economy in selected developing countries with natural resource abundance has been unstable during reviewing period. But, in general, this trend is increasing. Average size of underground economy during 12 years was 26.72% gross domestic product. Also, estimates results indicate unemployment, abundant natural resources, freedom of economy index, economy openness index, input flow of foreign direct investment and income per capita has effect on underground economy of selected developing countries. Among these, unemployment rate has the most positive effect and economy openness index has the most negative effect on underground economy. While inflation rate, direct tax burden, interest rate don’t have significant effect on emergence of this phenomenon in above mentioned countries. Also, between the two variables of the effects of the official economy and the demand for money in circulation, the most effect of underground economy is on the product market (formal economy). The effect is negative and significant in selected developing countries with abundant natural resources.

Maximizing the satisfaction of individuals and the welfare of society has always been one of the goals of human societies. Happiness is one of the criteria for identifying the level of satisfaction of people in society. Various factors, such as economic and social conditions, can affect people's happiness. Among these, inequality in income distribution and the feeling of deprivation play an important role in determining people's sense of satisfaction and happiness. Also, the type of perception and judgment of individuals about their economic and social conditions in society and their predictions about each other and the society in which they live plays an important role in the tolerable threshold of inequality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of income inequality thresholds on happiness in the context of the Easterlin paradox. For this purpose, data from 32 developing countries during the years 2005-2016 have been used. The results of estimating the threshold dynamic panel model show that in the low inequality regime,  when the Gini coefficient is less than 0.358, the increase in per capita income has a significant positive effect on happiness in developing countries. But in the high inequality regime, when the Gini coefficient is greater than 0.358, the increase in per capita income has not had a significant effect on happiness. Therefore, the results confirm the Easterlin paradox and indicate the existence of the Easterlin paradox is because of the high income inequality.

Increased exploitation and consumption of fossil resources in the last century and competitive efforts for economic growth and development have led to excessive emissions of carbon dioxide, resulting in widespread environmental degradation and climate changes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationship between the level of economic activities and environmental indicators for optimal management and protection of the environment along with attention to economic progress. Achieving the goal of controlling global warming depends on a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, which in turn is significantly related to energy consumption, especially fossil fuels. In this study, the effects of renewable energy and non-renewable energy consumption along with economic growth, trade openness, and financial development on Carbon dioxide emissions have been investigated using the panel method to show the interactions and interactive behavior of variables. This study was conducted using data available for the OECD countries and the period from 1990 to 2014. The results show that there is a positive and significant relationship between increased carbon dioxide emissions and the consumption of non-renewable energy. Economic growth, renewable energy consumption, trade openness, and financial development reduce carbon dioxide emissions and improve environmental conditions.

The relationship between spot and futures markets and how the causal relationship between these markets is one of the important issues that its identification has a great impact on the planning of the actors of these markets and the forecast of future prices of a basic asset. In this study, the price discovery function has been investigated in relationship between Iran's oil spot market and West Texas Intermediate Futures market. For this purpose, the linear causality test based on VECM equations and the non-linear causality test of Toda Yamamoto, as well as monthly data including the Iran's oil spot prices and the one-to-three month futures prices of the World Oil Market (WTI) has been used during the period of December 2002 Until January 2018. The results show that the linear and nonlinear Granger causality has been from the Iran's oil spot market to the world oil futures market, and the reverse is not true.This finding confirms the dominant role of the Iran's oil spot market in price discovery of the world oil futures market.Therefore, the expected price discovery function for the WTI Futures market has not happened. According  to the results of the VAR-based response functions, The WTI futures market has been an follower market and also the Iran's oil spot market is a leader market in the transmission of price fluctuations.