فصلنامه پژوهش های حفاظتی - امنیتی
پیاپی 34 (تابستان 1399)

The main purpose of this article is to explain the project of the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists and future studies of Iran’s counter measures in the framework of Hugh Miall’s theory and based on the method of futures Studies (scenario writing). The main question in this regard is “what are the reasons behind the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists by Israel’s intelligence services and what will be the future reaction of the Islamic republic of Iran to these sabotage operations, especially the assassination of martyr Mohsen Fakhrizade?” Based on the obtained results, terrorist operations are the results of identity, structural and institutional backgrounds, historical relations and also post- Islamic revolution’s arms development, which have moved the conflicts between the two sides involved at the regional and global levels from mediation to confrontation. Given the persistence of sabotage operations of Israel’s regime and based on the futures studies method, four scenarios can be predicted in the form of three main categories in relation to the future of Iran’s counter measures, which are: The favorable future: Destructing the Israel’s regime and the decline of its regional power; Possible future: 1) to Reduce or stop the inspections of nuclear facilities and increasing the uranium enrichment; 2) Strategic patience and activation of Iran’s pro-regional forces; The possible future: to take avenge from Israel in occupied Golan.

Intelligence space is related to human thinking and activity and requires a proper understanding of human behavior, and in this regard, specialized, committed and motivated human resources are the most important assets of intelligence organizations. This kind of organizations are usually faced with different types of employees with different degrees of the conformity of talent and commitment, training and expertise, motivation and support that the status of each intelligence employee needs to be examined in terms of having these dimensions. Based on the three concepts of “selection”, “training” and “motivation”, this study attempts to explain the typology of the performance of employees of intelligence organizations based on the interpretive method of the qualitative approach and utilizes documentary analysis as a method of data collection. After presenting a short subject as the theoretical framework, the research findings show that the intelligence organizations are faced with eight different ranges of employees within themselves, and it is important to identify the performance of each category due to different methods and work results. Also, the intelligence selection is more important than other stages of employee socialization in intelligence organizations, and in the case of improper selection, the selected intelligence employee always wastes the energy of leaders and the organization. “Standardizing and allocating the necessary time and money for selection”, “providing training in the order of attitude, knowledge and skills”, “increasing the power and expertise of internal monitoring groups” and “identifying and training leaders with high emotional intelligence and charisma” are the most important policy proposals to increase the performance of intelligence employees.

In a system of religious democracy, various institutions are created to stabilize and maintain it, that the institution of intelligence is an example of them. The purpose of this article is to examine the interaction between the institution of intelligence and the religious democracy system in addressing the threats of the religious democracy system, using a systematic approach. Thus, this article is an attempt to provide a reasoned answer to the question of “Can the institution of intelligence be effective in identifying and repelling threats and strengthening and stabilizing the system of religious democracy?” The method of this research is applied in terms of purpose and documentary in terms of implementation method. In addition, the information required for the research has been collected in the form of library collecting from reliable sources and has been analyzed in a descriptive- analytical manner. The research findings indicate that the framework of intelligence performance analysis based on the “Intelligence cycle” model includes threat identification, design and orientation, information collection, analysis and production, distribution and reassessment of threats. An efficient intelligence system must have within itself the principles of directing operations and the ability to measure the effectiveness of its actions, reflect a global balance, have sufficient scope and influence and has clearly identified obstacles to democratic sovereignty. If the input to the system of interaction between religious democracy and intelligence is the threats related to democracy and the rule of religion, the output will be the continued participation of the people in peacefully determining their destiny, the rotation of power, stability, the realization of the spirit of the constitution and Islamic rules at all levels and layers.

What is very important in resolving crises is to make timely decisions in accordance with the correct information obtained from environmental analysis, especially rapid environmental changes that impose various conditions on decision makers in a limited time. In this kind of circumstances, “intelligent management systems” that have a high ability to collect, process, analyze, categorize and update information and provide practical solutions in accordance with the existing conditions, can be very efficient in crisis management. In particular, applying these cases in dealing with social crises such as ethic crises that pose effective threats in the national security sphere will be very important, because it is necessary to identify potential and emerging ethic crises in the national environment and take action in the process of prevention, confrontation, reconstruction of damages and etc. in the next steps. Therefore, this study, with the purpose of “explaining the impact of smart systems upon the management cycle of ethnic crises”, attempts to examine the question of “How much is the impact of smart systems upon the management cycle of ethnic crises?”. The research method is applied with the mixed method and the results show that although the effectiveness of intelligent systems in the crisis management cycle, including crisis prevention, crisis- preparedness, coping with crisis and post- crisis reconstruction, is different, but employing these systems is necessary due to the capabilities defined in them.

The United States is one of the two-party presidential systems in which the rotation of power and the exercise of politics are influenced by the rivalry of its two main parties and these two parties of “Democratic” and “Republican”, despite acting as an integrated system in achieving the overall goals of the American political system, take different paths in implementing their policies and strategies. In foreign policy, Democrats traditionally believe in utilizing the capacity of organizations, treaties, international procedures, and negotiation and “peace” (multilateralism), and unlike them, Republicans often do not believe in international treaties and organizations and believe that “force and power” constitutes the reality of the international scene. In fact, they believe in “realism”. “Neoconservatives” form a range of Republicans that have a particular interest in waging war and using force against their enemies. Regarding the confrontation of the Islamic republic of Iran with the United States over the past 40 years and experiencing the “Janus-faced or two- faced” nature of the U.S. politics, the purpose of the present study was to scientifically and systematically show the type of the relationship between neoconservatives’ policies and the increase or decrease of the Islamic republic of Iran’s national security (in the past 20 years). This is an analytical- descriptive study that employs documents, scientific records and library research as data collection methods. The findings of the present study shows the fact that, despite the common notion that “with the Republicans and neoconservatives domination over the White House and US security policies, the Islamic republic of Iran’s national security will be threatened and weakened”, In fact, the policies of  the neoconservatives (especially in the security field), has led to an increase in the Islamic republic of Iran’s national security and shows the existence of an reverse relationship and result in this regard. The foreign policy decision makers and senior intelligence and security managers can utilize and exploit the results of this study.

The role of legal- international norms in the regulation of relations and how to interact between international law subordinates requires that the strategies (traditional and modern) generating the mentioned norms be studied in order to have a precise understanding of the process of developments in legal- international normalization, and also activism and behavior that guarantees national interests be considered. On the other hand, the process of the development of the norms of international law has taken shape in a kind of controlling confrontation with armed conflict, as the basis of the United Nations’ Charter is to ensure international peace and security, so that prevent the international peace and the order derived from legal norms in legal relations between countries from serious damage and violation. Therefore, the main question of the research is that which one of the theories in the field of international security has the capacity to normalize international law? To answer this question, a descriptive- analytical method was utilized, and the concise conclusion of this study is that the theory of effects- based operations, which is the basis of the common doctrine of the United States of America, is a new strategy of normalization in international law.