نشریه اقتصاد و تجارت نوین
سال پانزدهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 49، زمستان 1399)

Income of population’s lower deciles are generally associated with labor force (and not capital). Therefore, pro-labor economic policies along with economic growth objective can be used to improve income inequality and alleviate poverty. In this regard, this paper investigates the demand regime using a SVARX model for the period 1964-2017. Empirical results indicate that consumption expenditures are wage-led in the long run and aggregate demand is profit-led in the short run. Given Iran’s low degree of trade openness and its dependency on natural resources, this finding is consistent with theoretical expectations. Therefore, with the current structure of the Iranian economy, policy-making faces a dual problem. Pursuing pro-labor policies is not in line with profit-led growth of aggregate demand. Pro-capital policies will probably lead to growth of the real sector, but they worsen income distribution.

The main purpose of this study is to identify multiple bubbles in the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, monthly data of price to earning ratio (P/E) in the period 2001:3 to 2020:6 and the approach proposed by Hall et al. (1999) have been used. Hall et al. method is based on a nonlinear unit root test that follows a Markov Switching process. In fact, in this approach, one regime belongs to periods of the market in which the market is going through a normal course (the price-to-earnings ratio’ root is less than or equal to one), and the other regime includes periods in which the market is bubbly (price-to-earnings ratio has a root greater than one). The results of this study show that the price-to-earning ratio has had explosive behavior in several time periods since 2001, or in other words, has experienced bubble conditions. The smoothed probabilities for bubble periods as well as other criteria such as the value of the nominal and real TEPIX, price to earning ratio and the ratio of market value to GDP shows that the period from April 2020 to June 2020 is the biggest bubble in the history of Tehran Stock Exchange.

The development of information and communication technology (ICT) applications in the monetary and banking markets of developed countries has led the banking industry of other countries to use the capabilities of e-banking and innovation to improve efficiency. Therefore, considering the importance of information and communication technology and its potential impacts on the banking industry, the main goal of the study is to investigate the effects of ICT on the profitability of Iranian banks. In this regard, the financial information of 13 banks of the country during the period 2005 to 2017 has been collected. In this paper, due to the existence of self-correlation and variance disparity of the studied model, the FGLS Panel econometric method has been used. The results of this study show that with 99% confidence, research hypotheses can be accepted that the Information and Communication Technology Index has a positive and significant effect on the return on assets (ROA) of Iranian banks. In addition, the results in relation to other control variables have shown that the size of the bank, asset quality and cost ratio have reduced profitability but non-interest income are significantly positively associated with profitabilitis. Among the macroeconomic indicators, GDP per capita and inflation have a significant negative and positive effect on banks' profitability, respectively.

Risk aversion, the main reason is the demand for life insurance. Because, life insurance transferring the risk of people to insurance companies, damage caused by its risk more tolerable and more manageable. So, is expected in countries with higher risks higher, life insurance penetration is higher. But, empirical evidence shows that interest on life insurance in countries with high and medium risk is minimal. While in countries with very low risk, embracing the life insurance is very impressive. Therefore, the present study tried the effect of country risk (political, economic and financial) on life insurance penetration in two groups of selected countries with high and medium risk and selected countries very low risk during the period 2002-2015 analyzed. The research model using panel data and the generalized method of moments estimated. The results showed that the effect of political risk, economic risk and financial risk on the life insurance penetration in both groups from the selected countries is negative and meaningful. The effect of Control variables including per capita income, education of level and life expectancy on life insurance penetration in both groups of selected countries has a positive and meaningful. The effect of misery index on life insurance penetration in both groups of selected countries has a negative and meaningful. But, the effect of dependency ratio on life insurance penetration in selected countries with very low risk has a positive and meaningful and on life insurance penetration of selected countries with high and medium risk has a negative and meaningful.

Horizontal and Vertical Intra-industry trade (HIIT and VIIT) determine the real competitive and relative advantages of countries considering the method and technology of production. In the course of development and expansion of its commercial relations, Iran requires a suitable pattern to identify and strengthen the competitive and relative advantages in efficiency sectors, as well. One of these sectors is the industry sector that development and growth of which need technological development. This, in turn, the development of technology affected from investment in domestic research and development (R&D) and purchase of foreign technology (capital and intermediate commodities).  Accordingly, in this research, the spillover effects of R&D on horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade in Iran’s manufacturing industries have been investigated. To this end, based on the latest available data of Iran’s manufacturing industries at the 4-digit aggregation level of ISIC classification during 2004- 2016, panel data estimation method has been used. The results of fixed effects estimation show that the accumulation of domestic and foreign R&D don’t have a positive effect on HIIT and VIIT. Also, results indicate that the spillover of accumulation of foreign R&D by import have a negative and significant effect on HIIT and VIIT but, the spillover of accumulation of foreign R&D by human capital has a positive and significant effect on HIIT and VIIT. Thus, it’s proposed to invest in human capital and R&D, in order to facilitate the absorption and dissemination of hidden imported technology in the intermediary and capital commodities of business partners, that this produce the qualifier commodities and help for increasing the intra-industry trade share in international level.

One of the controversial issues among economists is the selection of optimal environmental strategies to control and stabilize the level of greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, considering a two-part closed economy considering the Iranian economy, the effect of productivity shocks on key macroeconomic variables under three policies targeting emission intensity, emission tax and carbon emission ceiling, in the form of a The stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model is investigated. The results of simulation and analysis of the instantaneous reaction functions of the model demonstrate that under all policy scenarios, the transient momentum of productivity causes the variables to react in the direction of the momentum and what makes the difference between the policy scenarios. Slow is the intensity of the effect of productivity momentum on model variables. In emission tax policy, the sensitivity of model variables under the productivity impulse to the baseline scenario in which no policy has been applied Augments, and with the occurrence of the productivity impulse, the deviation of the model variables from equilibrium levels increases. In contrast, in the diffusion ceiling policy, the deviation of the model variables from equilibrium levels is reduced. Regarding the diffusion intensity policy, it can be concluded that the sensitivity of the model variables to the baseline scenario does not change significantly. Therefore, from the perspective of the sensitivity of the economy to the productivity shock, the preferred policy is the emission tax policy.