فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال بیست و یکم شماره 2 (تابستان 1400)

In Iran, after exchange rate jumps, the issue of export prices, and especially its impact on economic growth, has become more important. Some experts argue that as the exchange rate rises, more domestic currency is bought with regard to each foreign currency; thus, domestic goods become cheaper than foreign goods and real exports increase. On the opposite side, some believe that the increase in the exchange rate has no meaningful effect on the increase in exports due to the weakness of the export development infrastructure. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of export price on Iranchr('39')s economic growth using Structural Vector Auto-regression (SVAR) and Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) during 1979-2017. The results of the study indicate that export price has a positive effect on the economic growth. Economic growth also reduces export prices. But due to the fact that exports and economic growth of the country are highly dependent on imports, especially on import prices; it is not possible to increase production and exports by increasing the exchange rate, especially as the positive effect of rising export prices on economic growth is relatively low.

The economic structure in oil-dependent countries is different from other countries. The human development index (HDI) may increase due to rising oil rents and subsequent increases in per capita income, but there may be no significant improvement in other indicators (literacy rate and life expectancy). The improper injection of oil rents into the countrychr('39')s budget without investing in manufacturing, agriculture and services, whether domestically or abroad, leads to the Dutch disease and “resource curse”. Bilateral official development assistance (BODA) from the members of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) can have a positive impact on human development without having a negative impact on various economic and social aspects. In this regard, this study examines the impact of BODA on human development using a Panel-Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (Panal-FMOLS) model in selected countries (Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Yemen, Jordan, Azerbaijan and Georgia from Southwest Asia, and Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar from Southeast Asia) during 1999-2018. The results indicate that BODA and health expenditure have positive and significant effects on HDI. The findings also indicate a significant negative impact of oil rent, population growth rate and unemployment rate on HDI. The effect of personal remittances is different in the two samples, so that these funds have negative impact on HDI in the Southwest Asia and a positive effect on HDI in the Southeast Asia.

Globalization is a driving force in emitting carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes countries to interact with each other economically, socially and politically. The interaction between countries will inevitably affect CO2 emissions. The aim of this study is to investigate the dynamic effects of globalization and energy consumption on environmental degradation in Iran. Therefore, it examines which variable (globalization, energy consumption or economic growth) is more effective in the process of environmental degradation. The Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) and Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (CCR) models are applied to investigate the subject over the period 1978-2016. In addition, Maki co-integration test is used to check the long-term dynamic relationships. The results show that globalization increases environmental degradation regardless of the decrease or increase in economic growth. This indicates that the scale effect of is dominant in Iran.

Exchange rate is one of the most influential factors affecting Iranchr('39')s macroeconomic variables. Exchange rate fluctuations in Iran have always been one of the major challenges for policymakers. On the other hand, many central banks today consider transparency as one of the main and vital priorities in achieving the effectiveness of monetary policy and communicating effectively with the people and being accountable. This transparency can affect macroeconomic expectations and the exchange rate. In this study, the effect of central bank transparency on exchange rate fluctuations is investigated using the ARDL method over the period 1981-2018. This study is based on analytical, applied and correlational research methods, which uses time-series econometric regression model. The transparency of the central bank, as independent variable, is measured by Dincer & Eichengreen index, and exchange rate fluctuations, as dependent variable, are constructed by GARCH method. The results show that the transparency of the central bank reduces exchange rate fluctuations in both short run and long run, and there is a long-term synergistic relationship between research variables.

Today, paying attention to innovation in achieving economic growth and development of countries both as key topic of economic research and important management issue for policymakers is of great importance. Due to such importance, this study investigates the efficiency of the national innovation system of Iran in comparison with countries subject to the 2046 Vision, and China and South Korea (as two successful countries in technology matching policies) using a two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) over the period 2011-2016. Moreover, a Tobit model is employed to study the impact of environmental factors on the efficiency of the national innovation system. Findings indicate that Iranchr('39')s national innovation system is inefficient. Although the efficiency trend in the stage of creating inventions and originalities shows a positive slope, when it enters the commercialization stage, the system operates very slowly. To increase the efficiency of the national innovation system, improving the governance indicators, and strengthening university-industry collaboration are among the most effective policies proposed in this research.

This paper examines the time effect and severity of UN and US sanctions on the misery index in 41 countries under sanctions during 1991-2018 using new unbalanced composite data and the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method. The estimation results of time effects of UN and US sanctions show that there is no time effect in relation to the effect of sanctions on the misery index, so that the passage of time has no increasing or decreasing effect of sanctions on the misery index. Moreover, the estimation results of the severity effects of UN and US sanctions on the misery index indicate that the imposition of the mild and moderate UN sanctions, while influencing positively the misery index, has no significant effect on the misery index; however, severe UN sanctions has significant positive effect on the misery index. In addition, the imposition of moderate sanctions by the United States has no significant effect on the misery index, but mild and severe US sanctions, have positive and significant effects on increasing the misery index by average coefficients of 3.20 and 12.14, respectively. Generally, the impact of UN multilateral sanctions on the misery index has been greater than of US unilateral sanctions.

Despite its rich energy resources, Iran is one of the top energy-intensive countries in the world. Improving technology and using new innovations in energy consumption and the production process of goods can reduce energy intensity in the country. In order to investigate the effects of technological innovation on energy consumption, this study uses the Marshallian Demand Framework and bounds testing within the Autoregressive-Distributed Lags (ARDL) method during 1980-2017. The results of this study showed that technological innovation, as an exogenous element in the energy demand function, increases energy efficiency and thus reduces energy consumption at a certain level of economic production. The results of this study confirm the theoretical predictions that the short-run GDP elasticities of energy demand are less than the long-term ones. However, controlling the effect of technological innovation, the study finds that increasing GDP and trade openness create rebound effects of technology innovation on energy consumption.