فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 97 (بهار 1400)

This study investigates the effect of individual characteristics on the unemployment duration of job seekers in Iran, using information from the Labor Force Survey in 2018 and applying of nonparametric, semi-parametric and parametric methods. The results show that the probability of employment for married males and also Married females are more likely than single people. Regional differences in the likelihood of leaving unemployment were statistically significant, and men who living in urban areas had longer periods of unemployment than men who living in rural areas;  While the probability of employment of women who living in urban areas was higher than those living in rural areas. The possibility of finding a job for unemployed men and women with the 26 - 30 and over 30 years old was lower than people 25 years or younger old. People with previous work experience were much more likely to be employed than people without previous work experience. The possibility of getting a job for females with previous work experience was three times more that of females without experience. For both of males and females, individuals with Post-secondary non-tertiary, Upper secondary, Lower secondary and primary degrees had lower unemployment duration than those with higher levels of education. Moreover, with an increase in the unemployment rate, the unemployment duration of males and females increases.

one of the problems of human societies is depriving people, especially children, of the healing elixir of education. In Iran, too, statistics comparing the academic performance of students on both sides of the income spectrum indicate that the educational gap is clearly visible along the income gap. In other words, along with the income poverty of parents, children also benefit from lower levels of education for various reasons, and a kind of intellectual poverty (lower level of education) is transmitted from generation to generation due to income poverty. In this study, we use micro-data on household income expenditure to address the important question of what is the origin of these educational gaps and how we can overcome them. The estimates of the present study have been estimated once using OLS method in the form of cross-sectional data and again using GLS method in the form of pseudo-panel data. The results of both estimates show that along with the previous literature in this field, maternal literacy status and parents’ income are the most powerful factors predicting the level of their children’s education in adulthood, respectively, and the family size variable also has significant effects on the level of children’s education. Comparison of the coefficients of the two estimates also shows that while the coefficients of the two variables of maternal age and maternal employment are significant in the estimation results based on cross-sectional data, these coefficients are statistically insignificant in research estimates based on pseudo-panel data.

The sudden drop in crude oil prices during the Coronavirus pandemic, once again rises the concern about oil countries future if oil diminishes. This paper uses a multi-country general equilibrium model to project the effects of eliminating oil revenues. The model consists of 5 oil exporters (i.e., Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan and Russia), 25 non-oil exporting countries, and the rest of the world. The oil income is modeled as a capital flow, which allows a surplus in capital account for the oil exporters and balances the current account deficits. The results show that, when oil revenue diminishes, relative GDPs, welfares, aggregate price indexes and manufacturing price indexes reduce; though, manufacturing share increases in all of the 5 oil countries. Specifically, Iran`s GDP falls by 15 percent (relative to the world) and the real welfare falls by 13 percent. Our results projects and quantifies the very difficult economic condition arises by oil income elimination.

Industrical Parks are a good way of promoting  small and medium sized manufacturing firms, as they provide the basic infrustuctures in the locations where such activities are desired. Here, among the factors affecting firm performance, location is regarded as the most influential one. In this respect, the location of industrial towns can be considered as a factor that influences a firm’s performance. This paper attempts to investigate the inter-regional disparities in order to describe the significance of varied factors on firm performences in the two industrial towns of Abbasabad and Shamsabad (in the Tehran Province). Descriptive-survey methodology was used and data were collected by means of well-structured questionnaire survey from the selected number of firm managers.  Afterwards, the factors discoverd affecting success are divided into intra-business and intra-regional factors. The results of this study show that seven factors have been found that mutually affect the success of industrial firm in both areas. This is while the two factors (lack of access to the sales market and lack of accessibility of deployment facilities in the province) which has to play and important role in Shamsabad town, the impact of these factors have not been significant in Abbasabad town. From a policy point of view, this finding means that although major contributing factors to success are shared among both industrial cities, the impact of the region on access to markets and facilities are two distinct and important factors on success. Hence, indicating the need for policymakers to consider these two important issues while deciding on the location of industrial parks.

The present study examines the determinants of non-performing loans from the public sector with emphasis on fluctuations in asset markets in the period 1397: 4-1384: 1. For this purpose, in order to extract the exchange rate and stock index fluctuations, the Daubechies discrete wavelet transform model has been used. Finally, the Markov switching model has been used to investigate the effect of research variables on non-performing loans from the public sectors. The growth of the oil sector in the country has a negative and significant effect in the high regime and a positive and significant effect in the low regime. Improvement and growth of the service and industrial sectors in all levels and regimes of non-performing loans from the public sector has a negative and significant impact. Also, increasing the size of the government has a positive and significant effect if the non-performing loans from the public sector be in a high level and regime. In the case of sanctions, short-term exchange rate fluctuations, which are mainly due to exchange rate increases, can reduce non-performing loans from the public sector. Exchange rate fluctuations in the conditions of sanctions, if they continue, regardless of the regime and the level of non-performing loans from the public sector, will cause a significant increase in non-performing loans. Also, short-term stock index fluctuations reduce non-performing loans from the public sector in all regimes. the medium-term fluctuations of the stock index, it also reduces non-performing loans from the public sector when the non-performing loans are in the low level. If exchange rate fluctuations are not due to external factors such as sanctions in all periods of fluctuations and all levels of non-performing loans from the public sector, it can increases non-performing loans.

One of the most important issues for governments to maintain and improve their position in the regional and global economy is the state of economic growth; one of the important issues in this situation is to predict the rate of economic growth. Proper forecasting of economic growth has very important effects on government policy and economic planning, and can help policymakers decide on future decisions in addition to creating opportunities for development. This study predicts Iranchr('39')s economic growth rate using the Meta-analysis method and compares it with other methods. For this purpose, the results of ANFIS, ARIMA, Markov switching methods, future research and Gary Markov, ECM, fuzzy regression, accounting approach related to economic growth forecasting from 1383 to 1392 (except for forecasting values ​​with accounting approach that until 1395 Used). The fixed and random weights of each of the previous studies have been determined using fixed and random effects and have been used using the Meta-analysis method for forecasting. The results show that the accuracy of the Meta-analysis method is much higher than other methods and has the lowest difference with real data. Therefore, it is recommended to use the combined Meta method to increase the reliability coefficient of accurate forecasting.

The most important issue for policymakers in optimal policy-making is to choose the tools that bring the equilibrium output to the desired level, with the least volatile income fluctuation. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of favorable fiscal policies on social welfare and business cycle management for the Iranian economy with respect to government spending shocks, monetary shocks and productivity shocks. Therefore, using the Vector Autoregressive Model (SVAR) and Hudrick-Prescott, we investigate the role of government, monetary and financial spending shocks on production and consumption representing business cycles and social welfare in the time period of 1971-2018. The results indicate that the highest growth in as an indicator consumption and welfare is due to the growth of productivity shocks, and then monetary shocks to some extent, but government spending shocks have a diminishing impact on consumption and welfare, which represents the phenomenon of crowding.

In the economic literature, institutional quality and the factors affecting its changes, have become one of the important issues in economic growth of countries.One of theis factors in oil exporting countries such as Iran is oil revenues and shocks. Although in existing studies the effect of oil shocks on the destruction of Iranchr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s institutional quality has been accepted, few studies have focused on policy-making in controlling institutional destruction of oil shocks. Hence, this study with a review of the literature, attempts to introduce Institutional innovation for control the institutional destruction of oil shocks in Iran. In this regard, the principles of macroeconomic stability, risk management, good governance and financial discipline have been considered. The results of the study indicate that applying specific financial rules, sufficient central bank independence Plus reforming the budget structure to reduce the direct dependence on oil revenues via reforming the tax system, expanding the debt market and productivity of government assets, reform the national development fund structure, establishing a operational budgeting system, reform of subsidized payment system and modify the structure of pension funds  are the most important institutional innovations for control the institutional destruction of oil shocks in Iran. The findings may imply important policy implications for authorities, so it is suggested that these institutional reforms be seriously pursued.

Banks, as financial institutions and services in a society that play a decisive role in the flow of money and wealth, have a special role in the economy of each country. As the society grows and grows, the number of applicants for loans and facilities is increased, and consequently, the amounts requested are higher, and in parallel, banks and credit institutions are more at risk of non-receipt. Creating non-bank claims of banks and credit institutions is normal and normal in all countries, but the point to be considered is the amount of non-current claims In the international banking system, the ratio of non-current claims to total facilities is typically between 2 and 5 percent, but in our country, compared with the global standard, this ratio reached 10.3 percent in winter1396. Therefore, The purpose of this study was to investigate and compare the deferred phenomenon of the banking system of Iran with other countries and identify the solutions of some other countries in solving this problem. The results of the comparative study of the banks delinquency phenomenon show that, despite the use of non-banking banking in Iran, the banking system of the country is not in a decent position compared with other countries and needs urgent solution to the problem of non-current claims.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of government consumption expenditures on macroeconomic variables in oil and non-oil developing countries during the period 2004-2018. For this purpose, the panel vector autoregressive model (Panel Var) was used to investigate the impact of government expenditures shocks by two techniques of impulse response and variance decomposition in this model. The results of the shock response indicate that in oil and non-oil countries, the shock of government consumption expenditures in the short, medium and long run has a positive and significant effect on GDP and employment and a negative and significant impact on investment. That is, an increase in government consumption expenditure leads to an increase in GDP and employment and a decrease in investment in both groups of countries. Analysis of variance decomposition also showed that in oil and non-oil countries, the shock of government consumption expenditure has the greatest impact on GDP in the medium and long run. That is, in both groups of countries, government consumption expenditure explains a large share of changes in GDP.

One of the major problems of developing governments, such as those of OPEC member states, is the government deficit and rising public debt. One of the reasons for this public debt is government policies faced with income inequalities. The opposite side said that the increased income inequality can lead to capital accumulation and thus increase production and tax payments and reduce government debt. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of income inequality on government debt at OPEC member countries are in the period 2010 to 2018. The method used is the threshold panel. The research results show that the relationship between income inequality and public debt at the OPEC member states is U-shaped and not linear. In other words, the effects of income inequality on public debt at OPEC member states are like the threshold.

Theoretically and empirically, FDI may have positive (complementary) or negative (substitution) effect on the host country’s domestic investment. This study aims to examine the existence of crowding out (in) effect of FDI for MENA countries with high- and low- level income. Using the GMM, several regressions were estimated over the periods of 1981-2017 and 2001-2017. The immediate positive effect of FDI on domestic investment was confirmed in all regressions. In addition, the long-run positive effect of FDI on domestic investment in both groups of high- and low- level income countries is strongly confirmed over the 2001-2017, but it was not significant for the 1981–2017 period. To enhance the positive effect, it is suggested that the "forms" and "conditions" of using foreign investment are cosidered. Foreign capital absorption in the form of joint ventures and buy back and also the use of conditions such as export performance and technology transfer will be beneficial.