نشریه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی
پیاپی 76 (تابستان 1400)

 Problematic settlements as a serious challenge to countries have been the objective experience of the hidden power relationships of their actors, each of which has had a different contribution to the production of these spaces. The results suggest that these settlements are influenced by political issues and are formed by its actors based on different ideologies and powers. Critical discourse analysis as an emerging discourse seeks to identify the positions of the ideological and political approaches that have shaped the space. This approach prioritizes the relationship between language, power, ideology, and discourse, and tells us that problem settlements, as a serious challenge to countries, are contexts that are the objective experience of hidden power relationships of their actors. These settlements are not neutral from the ideological burden and the contribution of actors in the shaping them attitude towards these settlements varies depending on social, cultural, political, and economic conditions.  In line with the aim of this paper, the Islamabad neighborhood has faced sudden and accelerated changes, bulldozer destruction and the disappearance of some words and the spatial relationship between them in the process of city development. However, this neighborhood is the only successful example of problematic settlements that could be turned from margin to text. The purpose of growing such a neighborhood was to inhabitation of the poor and rural people, and due to its special location, it became a favorable area for trade. However, there is one thing that is still in the margin of the text, as it has not been built based on the principles and planning. Therefore, with rapid change and mismanagement, the text of problematic settlements became the goals of their actors.

 The present study is qualitative in terms of nature and applied in terms of type. The qualitative-quantitative method was used to explain the text / space in the problematic settlements. The main variables of the research were collected in direct contact with the residents and then selected and completed by 50 selected experts using the Delphi technique. The effects of the indicators were examined using a one-sample t-test in Spss and Mactor software was used to link the power and ideology of the actors in the production of text / space of problematic settlements.

 Municipalities are nowadays in charge of educating the citizens and continue education is essential in the society, since negative effects of people's unawareness of culture of urbanization and citizenship and its harms back directly to the municipality. Also, it is necessary for citizens to learn about the ways of interacting with the urban area to have a normal city, since all urban interactions take place in the urban space and the positive and negative consequences also affect the citizens themselves.  Hence, in the area of its services to citizens and with the internal and external interaction with relevant institutions, the municipality can promote urban and citizenship education and encourage its citizens to participate in the area of planning with the correct information system.  Access to all kinds of rights expands the capabilities of citizens, strengthens the sense of social belonging, strengthens the sense of trust in the urban management system, creates justice in using the opportunities and facilities, and organizes and integrates the affairs of citizens and strengthens the citizenship structure through establishing a system of duties between citizens and city managers, increasing the participation and effectiveness of citizens in improving urban affairs, strengthening the vision of collective life and respecting for collective needs against individualism, and paving the way for purposeful social interactions to consolidate governance.

Problematic settlements, as an imposed space and a symbol of contradiction in the shadow of the formal city, are a kind of discourse-oriented context, reflecting the widening gap between ideal action and reality. In other words, these spaces are the intersection of ideology, power and knowledge of actors who have created different meanings and concepts from these spaces, the spaces that result from the confrontation between the normal power of existing institutions and powerless groups.  Results revealed that the life experience of residents has found meaning according to experts in the form of concepts such as poverty, neglect, backwardness, invisible forces, conflict of interests, ambiguity in fate, distance between claim and action, distance between us and them, duality and conflict and personal interests not common interest. These concepts show the institutionalization of dominant ideologies and lack of awareness and economic weakness of the inhabitants of these settlements and the confrontation of government / urban management spatial strategies with people spatial tactics. The role of middle management as a link between government management and local management in the production of text / space of problematic settlements has been significant. Decoding the hidden meaning behind the apparent meaning by recognizing the rights of the users of these settlements can improve the conditions of main actors in the form of self-management at different levels.

Data and information from the Meteorological Department of India and the Joint Hurricane Warning Center (JHWC) were used to investigate the structural nature of Ashuba tropical storm in the Arabian Sea from June 7 to June 12, 2015. To study the atmospheric structure, the analyzed digital data were taken from the European Center for Medium-Term Forecasts and the Center for Environmental/Atmospheric Forecasts (NCEP/NCAR) for the Arabian Sea and beyond. The study area was the Arabian Sea, located between the Indian subcontinent (eastern part) and the Arabian Peninsula (western part) and northwest of the Indian Ocean. On average, 1-2 tropical cyclones form on the Arabian Sea each year. Even in some tropical regions, strong cyclonic cycles occur at the synoptic scale (Evan & Camargo, 2001: 145). Therefore, from previous years, climatologists have studied the types of storms, due to the increase in tropical cyclones in the last decade; and thereby, this issue is followed with more sensitivity. Consequently, the main purpose of this study was to explore the structural nature of Ashuba tropical storm on the Arabian Sea in order to identify one of the region's main moisture sources.

Storm data statistics were obtained from the Meteorological Department of India and the Hawaii Hurricane Warning Center. Analyzed digital data, including; Geopotential altitude (Hgt), orbital (u), meridional wind (v), sea surface pressure (SLP), air temperature and sea water temperature (SST) for standard levels at 17 compression levels with a resolution of average daily geographic degree belonged to the National Center for Environmental Prediction/Atmospheric Science and precipitated networked data were obtained from the European Center for Medium-Term Atmospheric Forecasting (ECMWF) with a resolution of 0.125 degrees Celsius for the Arabian Sea. NASA and MODIS satellite imagery were also used for the visible band for every six days. The CAPE index was applied to evaluate the energy required by the storm supplier.

The results of study displayed that in the middle level of the atmosphere, while forming a low-altitude nucleus with very strong positive rotation, the conditions for the production of tropical storms in the region have been provided. On the other hand, on the surface, low pressure has formed in the southeast of the Arabian Sea with a central pressure of 995 hPa and has started moving westwards towards the coasts of Oman and northern Yemen. Creating a very strong convergence current on the surface and upper divergence caused the storm to reach its maximum strength in the region on June 9. However, the anomalous temperature of the water surface in the range where the storm reached its maximum intensity reaches to over than 5 degrees Celsius. The increase in water surface temperature and the transfer of heat and moisture into the storm has strengthened and, by its nature, caused heavy rainfall in the region. Finally, on June 12, as it approached the east coast of Oman, it began to disappear due to lack of moisture for its dynamic movements, and changed from a tropical storm to a tropical hurricane. Also examining the prepared maps for the amount of precipitation and the flow of the lower levels of the atmosphere, it was determined that on the first day of the storm, a cyclonic current occurred in the east of the Arabian Sea, resulting in the maximum amount of precipitation in the west of the system, which reaches more than 240 mm. On the second day, moving north of the system, the amount of precipitation was concentrated in the south, so that the southern coast of India was not unaffected by precipitation and had about 120 mm of rainfall. On the third day, with the placement of this tropical storm in the north of the Arabian Sea, the maximum precipitation was created in the east of the system, which was more than 160 mm. On the fourth day, the western half of the Indian coast was faced with a rainfall of nearly 110 mm, which was due to its location in the east of the cyclone, which in turn caused the rise of air and the transfer of moisture to the air parcel, floods in the region. On the fifth day, the maximum rainfall was close to the eye of the storm, which was close to 100 mm, and the coastal areas of the Indian subcontinent were still experiencing heavy rainfall. Examination of the 850 hPa pressure system revealed that on the first day, the maximum relative pressure system nucleus formed in the southeastern parts of the Arabian Sea. These conditions have led to very strong convergence in the lower levels. The presence of such strong convergence and amplification of rotation has caused this anomaly to reach its maximum in the region. The strong rotating nucleus then extended to the west coast of India and then moved westward on the third day to the central regions of the Arabian Sea, with a very strong rotating current extending from latitudes 10 to 30 degrees north. As the storm/hurricane approached the west coast of the Arabian Sea, it intensified to more than five pressure system units on the fourth day. On the fifth day, the positive nucleus became independent and formed a very strong rotating closed cell. On the sixth day, with the cyclone remaining on the eastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula, its power had gradually diminished.Considering the water temperature in the region, which is an average of 6 days, it showed that the water temperature in most parts of the Arabian Sea was high, so that these conditions reached more than 32 degrees Celsius in the coasts of India and the center of the Arabian Sea. These conditions were less only in the northern regions of the sea than in other regions. To understand the water surface temperature, its anomaly was also calculated for six days with the storm. Its output indicated that the eastern, northern, western and southwestern regions of the Arabian Sea were associated with a positive anomaly of 2 to 3° C. Negative anomalies only reached -1.5 degrees Celsius in the north and south of the sea. Occurrence of maximum positive anomalies in the region was one of the main reasons for the intensification of cyclones in the region, so that the western regions of the Arabian Sea had the maximum positive anomalies and on the other hand the maximum area of ​​tropical cyclone activity.The 12-hour reports from the Indian Meteorological Agency and the Hawaii Hurricane Warning Center were used to route the tropical storm. In these two centers, there were several data methods for routing and the origin of the storm. Geographical coordinate data with a 12-hour separation was used, which from the beginning of the storm to its decline, its characteristics and longitude and latitude were recorded as a text file. The onset of the storm was from the eastern part of the Arabian Sea, which migrated northward to higher elevations and deviated in its path due to the dominance of the Coriolis to the west of the region and disappeared off the coast of Oman.

Ashuba tropical storm/hurricane formed on June 7, 2015 in the Arabian Sea and disappeared on June 12, 2015. This investigation revealed that on the first day, a low-lying cell was formed in the eastern part of the Arabian Sea, during which a positive rotating nucleus or vortex was formed in the mentioned area and strengthened in the following days. The role of the Arabian Sea and abnormal changes in its water surface temperature in the occurrence of hurricanes has been mentioned in the researches of Ghavidel Rahimi (2015: 31) and Lashkari and Kaykhosravi (2010: 19). On June 9, as the subtropical anticyclone expanded further east, the Arabian Sea's low-pressure cell became oval in a circle, contributing to the deepening of the system, creating another bond at the heart of the closed cell with a height of 5,810 geopotential meters. In the last days, as the coasts of Oman and Yemen approach, the intensity of this cell decreases and its extinction stage was reached. On the surface, in parallel with the mentioned period, a low-pressure core with a central pressure of 995 hPa formed on the southeast of the Arabian Sea and the creation of a very strong positive rotation indicates the occurrence of hurricanes in the region. The central pressure of the storm reached less than 993 hPa on days 9 and 10, which was the peak of the storm. As it approached the shores, the intensity of this cyclone was greatly reduced, turning it from a tropical storm into a tropical turbulence. Examination of the water surface temperature showed that the average water surface temperature in these 6 days in most parts of the Arabian Sea was more than 29 degrees Celsius. Inspection of water surface temperature anomalies also disclosed that the maximum positive anomalies corresponded to several places in the sea, including the southern coasts of Pakistan to western India, eastern Oman and a very strong core corresponding to the southwest of the Arabian Sea with an average temperature of more than 5° C. The maximum rainfall inside the cyclone indicated that on the first day of the storm, the maximum rainfall in the southwest was 240 mm. In the following days, with the transfer of this core to the south, southeast and finally to the east, the maximum rainfall would be on the west side of the Indian coast. Only in the last days it was observed that while the maximum rainfall occured in India near the eastern part of the eye of the storm, a maximum precipitation center with an average of 100 mm has been created. In this study, two indicators, CAPE and SWEAT, were used to assess the location of storm formation. The results showed that these two indicators well showed the formation and severity and weakness of the storm during different stages. Thus, on the first day in the south of the Arabian Sea, the amount of CAPE was more than 5000 Jules/kg, which indicates the amount of convective energy available. On the other hand, the values ​​of the SWEAT index have reached more than 380, which specify that the probability of a hurricane in this region is very high. Also, with the increase of water surface temperature in the region and the increase of anomalies in it, the necessary energy is provided for the production of cyclones in the region, which with the increase of energy within the air mass system and the presence of buoyancy energy in it, and on the other hand, instability indicators in monitoring and tracking these types of storms showed that they are a suitable tool for tracking and are able to navigate it while being aware of the intensity of the storm.

In recent decades, in parallel with theories of sustainable development and sustainable urban development, the idea of ​​improving the quality of life, which in turn makes cities more livable, has found its place in urban planning literature and, therefore, the ability to have Livelihoods are essential for cities. This article has selected one of the most talented central cities of the country, namely Kashan city, as the scope of research, which has excellent features such as tourist attractions, historical and cultural history, natural attractions and so on. On the other hand, in this city, issues such as; Widespread unemployment and employment issues, the phenomenon of marginalization, lack of recreational and leisure facilities, high housing prices and rents, and so on. In order to eliminate these negative effects from the spaces of this city, it is necessary to identify and analyze the key factors affecting livability with a future research approach. The main question of the research is what are the key factors affecting the future situation of livability in Kashan?

This research is based on the purpose of applied research and according to data collection methods, it is descriptive-analytical research and its data collection method is "documentary and field" in which the researcher-made questionnaire was used. The research method is based on the futures approach and its horizon is 1415. The statistical population was 15 experts and specialists. Futurism projects use a set of techniques and methods that often complement each other, and the outputs of each form the inputs to the next method. Micmac and Scenario Wizard futures software and Delphi method have been used to review and analyze the data. Propulsion forces are prioritized based on the opinion of specific experts and then these factors are prioritized based on the degree of importance and uncertainty, and the most critical factors are used to write down possible scenarios.

In this study, 24 factors were identified as effective factors of biodiversity indicators in Kashan. The identified factors are then analyzed with Mick Mac software to extract the main influential factors. The dimensions of the matrix were 24. 24. The degree of saturation of the matrix is ​​84.22%, which shows that the selected factors have a great and scattered effect on each other, and in fact, the system has been in a state of instability. According to Table 1, out of a total of 488 measurable relationships in this matrix, 88 were zero, which means that the factors did not affect each other or were not affected by each other.58 The relationship was one, meaning that the effect was relatively small. Together, 163 relationships were numbered 2, meaning that the influential interface was relatively strong, 174 relationships were 3, meaning that the key factor relationships were very large and highly effective. Finally, 93 relationships had a P number that indicated the potential and indirect relationships of the factors.

The results of this study indicate 5 scenarios with different combinations of three situations, desirable, static and critical, which are likely to occur in the viability of Kashan city, which unfortunately, the probability of negative (critical) events is more than positive (desirable) events. However, 51.1% of the critical situation, 17.8% in the static state and 31.1% in the optimal state of the scenario page. With this situation, it seems that the favorable and stable conditions have occupied a smaller part of the scenario page and the critical situation is in the first priority and according to the results of these scenarios, it is clear that in Kashan's habitability, conditions are likely to occur. More critical, but less likely to occur. A very important point in the results is the relative distance of the level of desirability in the best case scenario with the ultimate living objectives of Kashan city. Assuming that the best scenario, which is Scenario 1, occurs among the five scenarios, it does not indicate the desired viability of Kashan in the future. In the most optimistic case scenario, one in four scenarios out of five scenarios affecting urban viability will be in an almost favorable situation, with only four desirable scenarios alone, and the other four scenarios have a much lower utility ratio. On the other hand, assuming that the worst possible situation, scenario 5, occurs in the viability of Kashan city, in this scenario we will see 6 critical situations in the scenario that we will not see a favorable situation in Kashan city.

The expansion of urbanization and the problems resulting from urban life have made it increasingly necessary to pay attention to useful strategies and solutions to optimize the lives of citizens. With the introduction of democratic concepts and approaches over the last decades, new patterns of governance have emerged. Good urban governance movement has been one of these new forms. This model is defined as a participatory process that is associated with citizen participation and changing the roles and functions of local government. In this regard, the NBN program, entitled "Neighbors Building Neighborhoods," has been one of the most successful ways of urban management and good governance in the past ten years in Rochester, New York. In this program, all citizens try to organize their living environment. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the implementation of participatory urban governance (NBN program) in District 2 of Tabriz metropolitan.

The method of present study is descriptive-analytical. To collect the required data, library resources (for theoretical foundations) and questionnaire (for scientific research) were used. It should be noted that the statistical population of this study was calculated to be 382 people, according to the Cochran's formula and the population of District 2 of Tabriz metropolitan.  Also, the used questionnaire included 19 five-option questions with a closed answer and its items are measured based on the Likert scale. The validity of the questionnaire was obtained using the face validity and its reliability was obtained at 0.826 using Cronbach's alpha method, indicating the desirable reliability of the questionnaire.Then, the data obtained from the questionnaire were analyzed using LISREL software and one-sample t-test in SPSS software, and the indicators influencing the implementation of participatory urban governance (NBN program) were evaluated and prioritized. LISREL software was used to estimate and test structural equation models and to examine and analyze linear relationships between latent variables and observed variables. This program uses correlations and covariance between observed variables to estimate the values ​​of factor loads, variances, and errors of latent variables. In the quantitative stage of study, the relationship between latent variables was examined using the structural equation method and a model was presented using LISREL software. In the field method, as stated, the questionnaire tool was defined and used for each latent variable and observed variables. To analyze the data through the structural equation model, the data obtained from the questionnaires were entered into the SPSS statistical software and were encoded. The data encoded in the LISREL program were retrieved and analyzed.

Based on the results of LISREL software and the t-value, indicating the priority of indicators in LISREL software, the collective agreement indicator with a value of 10.72 was ranked first. In fact, when there are different opinions and ideas in a society, there will be different actors, so it is better to guide the city management and different interests and preferences in the society towards a broad consensus that considers the best and most benefit for groups. In other words, the city is the arena of different groups and interests and they are sometimes in conflict with each other. Collective agreement means moderation and creating an agreement of different interests. Transparency indicator with a T-value of 7.28 was ranked second. It means that lack of transparency and secrecy in urban affairs increases the possibility of corruption in decision-making. However, transparency prevents its spread. Citizen participation indicator, which means power to influence citizens in decision-making and involving them in power with the T-Value value of 6.1, was ranked third. Justice indicator, which means creating suitable opportunities for all citizens to improve their welfare status, the effort for fair allocation of resources and participation of the deprived people in expressing their opinions and decisions with the T-value of 5.18, was ranked fourth. Evaluating the status of indicators in SPSS software and their significance level indicated that significance level of all indicators is less than 0.05. It means that the mean indicators differ from the theoretical mean of 3, and since the values of the two upper bound and lower bound columns are negative, it can be stated that the mean of the indicators is lower than the theoretical mean of 3. Hence, with 95% confidence interval and significance level of less than 0.05, it can be stated that District 2 of Tabriz metropolitan is not in a good position to implement participatory urban governance (NBN program).

One of the most successful models in the area of urban management is the "good urban governance" model, which is a participatory urban management system. In this model, three institutions of civil society, private sector and government participate in all relevant decisions. This approach in urban management is based on the citizen-oriented and fair development is to influence all forces having interest and power in the management of urban affairs and to meet all the needs of these groups. In fact, it can be stated without the active participation of citizens, urban governance will not be realized and urban management will remain in a static framework with a one-sided and dominant power in making decision on city issues. Thus, citizen participation is the driving force of urban management. In this regard, the NBN program is one of the most creative and effective approaches to contemporary urban management and governance, which has been used in Rochester, New York for about two decades. In this program, people participate in all relevant decisions together with the government. This approach, called "neighbors building neighborhoods", can be one of the most serious steps in decentralizing centralized management and urban "top-down planning" and rural areas and movement towards decentralized participatory governance and "bottom-up planning."The present study was an attempt to evaluate the factors influencing the implementation of participatory urban governance (NBN program). The results of data analysis in the LISREL program environment show that the model has a good fit. Among the indicators, according to their T-Values, the "collective agreement" indicator was ranked first, and the indicators of transparency, citizenship participation and justice were ranked second, third, and fourth, respectively. Also, based on the results of data analysis in SPSS and one-sample t-test and significance level, the mean of indicators with the theoretical mean and the values ​​of upper and lower bounds, which are negative in all indicators,  it can be stated that the factors affecting the implementation of participatory urban governance (NBN program) are in an unfavorable situation.

For the first time, Faddingham presented a geographic weight regression model. He tried to study the aspects of space heterogeneity. After that, Bronson examined the relationship between housing prices and areas. Which encountered a number of issues in relation to the model, which included the selection of variables, bandwidth and spatial correlation errors. Using the GWR, Franklin analyzed the spatial characteristics of the rainfall along with the elevation changes. Elvi also used this model to study the spatial factors that affect land prices. The GWR produces spatial information that expresses spatial variations between variables' relationships. Therefore, the maps produced from these analyzes play a key role in the spatial non-static description and interpretation of variables (Mennis 2006) and an equation Generates a separate regression for each observation instead of calibrating an equation, so it allows the parameter values ​​to be continuously changed in the geographic space. Each of the equations is calibrated using a different weight of the observations contained in the total data. And more relative weights are assigned to closer observations and less or zero weights to those who are far away. 

The Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) calculates the surface heat flux instantaneously as well as 24-hour. The latent heat flux shows the energy required for true evapotranspiration and is calculated as the remainder of the equilibrium energy equation (Mobasheri, 2005). In remote sensing estimates of surface Albedo, surface temperature and surface leakage in the thermal infrared region, reflectance is used to calculate spatial variations in short-wave radiation and long-wave radiation emitted from the surface of the earth. A combination of short-wave and long-wave radiation combines the ability to calculate the pure absorbed surface radiation for each image pixel. Each of the equations is calibrated using a different weight of the observations contained in the total data. And more relative weights are assigned to closer observations and less or zero weights to those who are far away. In other words, the GWR only uses geographically close observations to estimate local coefficients. This method of weighting is based on the idea that the use of geographically close observations is the best way to estimate local coefficients. The GWR method not only does not consider the effects of self-variables on the independent variable, but also the effects of neighboring situations. The values ​​of the geographic weighting model can be used to describe the spatial correlation of the factors used. Therefore, we extend the study area to several sections We divide the values ​​of the geographic weight coefficients in each of the sections in relation to each of the environmental parameters. Unlike regular regression models, they provide an equation for describing general relationships between variables. GWR allows the parameter values ​​to be changed continuously in the geographic space. Each of the equations is obtained using a different weight of the observations contained in the total data.

The analysis of the relationships between selected indices by geographic weighted regression model and the classification of output values ​​through the normalization of data in seven categories. The values ​​obtained vary between 1 and 1, and the smaller the index, the spatial disjunction is variable, and the larger it shows the presence of spatial clusters. It was found that all three indexes of evapotranspiration, surface temperature and vegetation index have cluster spatial pattern. Therefore, the null hypothesis is based on the spatial correlation itself, and as a result, three of the above indicators can be used for spatial analysis of the actual evaporation. Based on the correlation between the factors affecting the macroeconomic factors, the factor of vegetation index has the most effect on the magnitude of the spatial distribution in the studied area (53% with an area of ​​471782864 square meters). However, as the results are clear, this number is an overall number and covers the overall situation in the area. And does not refer to spatial features of the area. In the results of weighted regression, the effect of elements can be observed spatially. Accordingly, according to the geographic weighted regression method, the relationship between evapotranspiration and surface temperature was negatively affected and negatively affected. The relationship between dehiscence and vegetation index was studied in different years. The highest digit on the seventh floor is 13/99 and in the area of ​​266611500, which shows a high positive effect. The relationship between evapotranspiration and the Albedo shows the highest value in the first and second classes. The values ​​of 18 and 10 in the area of ​​490428000 and 1170753300 m 2, respectively, show a very negative impact and a significant negative effect.

Geographic weighted regression method is a statistical method that is adapted to study local patterns. This method is, in fact, a technical technique that analyzes the relationship between spatial variables in a hypothetical unpopular space. In this research, we tried to express the effect of several indicators on actual evaporation. These indicators are not all indicators that have had an impact on actual evapotranspiration Because actual evapotranspiration is closely related to other climatic factors. Because of the unique ability of spatial weighted regression to identify and analyze the relationships between variables, it is recommended to use it in quantitative analyzes. The Z classes resulting from the GWR analysis of the actual evapotranspiration in different years have different states that indicate the spatial effect of the surface temperature in different conditions.

In the last few decades, the number and use of motor vehicles have increased dramatically in cities across the world and urban spaces and mobility have been dominated by motor vehicles. Thistrend has made various environmental, social, and economic issues for cities and has threatened their sustainable development. Therefore, in recent years, special attention has been paid to changing the mobility model as well as urban design and planning. So that the urban sustainable development paradigm and theories like New Urbanism emphasize the reduction of automobile dependence and increasing the walkability of urban space.Walkability refers to the extent to which an environment is suitable for walking. There are various environmental, social, and economic benefits for walkability in urban spaces. Therefore, recognizing the various factors affecting the walking of citizens, including physical-spatial indicators and planning to improve these indicators can be effective in the sustainable development of cities. Consequently, in the study, the relationship between physical indicators of urban space and citizens' walking rate in Qaen city neighborhoods is analyzed. 

The general approach of the present study is descriptive-analytical. This research is applied research and correlational research that seeks to investigate the relationship between a set of variables. The data collection method is library and field study. Statistical population is the inhabitants of Qaen city, that are about 43,000 people. The sample size is 360 people and the sampling method is simple random. The share of each neighborhood in this sample size was determined based on the population share of that neighborhood from the whole city. The dependent variable in this study is citizens' walking rate and the independent variable is composed of the physical-environmental factors, such as access to diverse land uses(land use mix), visual quality of urban spaces, quality of sidewalks, and connectivity of the street network. Multiple regressionhas been used to analyze the data and test the hypotheses.

The results suggest that there is a positive relationship between the level of land use  diversity and the rate of citizens' walking. So it can be expected that with the increase in the land uses diversity in urban neighborhoods, the probability of walking will increase. The land uses diversity and proximity of residential units to various urban and neighborhood activities (commercial, office, green space, schools, parks, restaurants etc.) makes less need to use motor vehicles and instead, walking is considered as a basic mode of mobility within neighborhoods. On the other hand, the mixture and diversity of land uses in an urban area can cause more people to be present in urban spaces and this presence increases the sense of security that encourages walking.Another finding is that the connectivity of the street network has a positive effect on the level of citizens’ walking. In fact, the connectivity of streets, based on the frequency of intersections and their short distance from each other in a range, helps to connect multiple paths and, on the other hand, reduce the speed of vehicles. This makes it possible, firstly, to select a variety of routes for walking within the neighborhood, and secondly, due to the close distance of the intersections in reducing the speed of motor vehicles, the safety of walking increases.The results also showed that the effect of sidewalk quality is significant on people's walking rate. Thus, it can be said that improving the quality of sidewalks can increase the desire of citizens to walking. However, the relationship between visual quality and walking in the neighborhoods of Qaen city was not conformed. So the visual quality of urban spaces (beauty, cleanliness, lighting, etc.) has not affected the level of citizens’ walking.

The study examined four important physical indicators of walkability to determine how much it affects walking in Qaen city. According to the findings, 3 indicators including diversity of land use, connectivity of the street network, and sidewalk quality have a positive and significant effect on the amount of walking, but the visual quality indicator does not have a significant effect on  people's walking. Thus, it can be said that by improving these three indicators along with social and cultural planning, citizens' walking rate is expected to increase in this small city.

Determining the temporal change of snowmelt or agriculture water equivalent of snow, predicting flood, and managing the reservoirs of a region is of utmost importance. Some major parts of the western sections of the country are located in the mountainous region and most of the precipitations of this region occur in the form of snow in winter. The runoff resulting from snowmelt has an important role in feeding the rivers of this region and it has a significant share in developing agriculture and the economy.Scientific studies have shown that climate change phenomena have significant effects on precipitations, evaporation, perspiration, runoff, and finally water supply. As the demand increases, climate changes, greatness, frequency, and the damage resulting from extreme weather events, as well as the costs of having access to water increase, as well. Therefore, evaluating the runoff resulting from snowmelt and the effect of climate change seems necessary for managing water resources.

Gamasiab basin is located in the northeast part of the Karkheh basin originating from the springs in the vicinity of Nahavand. Its basin has an area almost equal to 11040 square kilometers that have been located in the east part having 47 degrees and 7 minutes to 49 degrees and 10 minutes geographical longitude and from the north part, it has 33 degrees and 48 minutes to 34 degrees and 54 minutes geographical latitude. This basin has an altitude between 1275 to 3680 meters.In this study, snow-related data required for simulation were derived from the daily images of the MODIS sensor. To this end, first, the snow-covered area of the Gamasiab basin was measured during the 2016-2017 water years using the process of satellite images obtained from the MODIS sensor in the google earth engine system. All geometric justifications and calibration processes of images were applied precisely in the mentioned system. In the next step, the output of the GCM model scenarios was utilized for calculating temperature and precipitation changes in future periods. These CMIP5 kind models were under the control of two RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios and were downscaled with LARS-WG statistical model.Moreover, to investigate the uncertainty of models and scenarios, the best models and scenarios were selected for producing temperature and precipitation data of future periods; accordingly, the outputs of the models for future periods (2021-2040) having the basis period of (1980-2010) were compared using statistical indexes of coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results were entered into the SRM model as the inputs. In addition, temperature and precipitation data of meteorological station of the studied region as well as the daily discharge of the river flow of hydrometric station of Chehr Bridge (as located in the output part of Gamasiab basin) were used during the statistical period of October 2016 to May 2018.  

Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the region and the appendage of Hec-GeoHMS in GIS software, firstly, flow direction map, flow accumulation map, and stream maps were drawn and the output point (hydrometric station of Chehr Bridge) was introduced to the border program of the identified basin and the basin was classified based on the three elevation regions.Producing temperature and precipitation data of future periods requires a long-term statistical period; accordingly, the meteorological station of Kermanshahd was selected since it was in the vicinity of the studied region. To be confident in theability of the model in producing data in future periods, the calculated data had to be compared with the observed model and data in the studied stations. The capabilities of the LARS-WG model in modeling the mentioned parameters of this station confirmed the observed data. Moreover, the ability of the model in modeling precipitation was very good and acceptable; however, the most modeling error was related to the precipitation in Mars.In the next phase and compared to the basic periods, the mean of changes in average precipitation and temperature was measured in the studied stations during January and Juan of 2015 to 2017(for which simulation had occurred); as an index of changing the climate, this was entered into the SRM model under climate change conditions. During the simulation period (January to Juan), it had been predicted that the precipitation parameter would decrease and the temperature parameter would increase.

The results of this study indicated that using the MODIS sensor could provide an acceptable estimation of the snow cover level of the Gamasiab basin, which lacked snow gauge data. Moreover, the results of simulation with the SRM model showed that the model could simulate the snow runoff in the studied region. As the main purpose of the study, the effect of temperature and precipitation in future periods was well stated considering the uncertainty of CMP15 series models and scenarios. The results of temperature changes indicated an average increase of 1.8 C. the results of precipitation also indicated an average decrease of more than 5%. However, decreasing precipitation in the cold months of the years had been predicted severely so that the reduction of precipitation in February was of utmost importance for feeding the snow cover and rivers, which had been estimated to be 20%. This happened while increasing precipitation was mainly related to the hot months of the year whose amount was insignificant and didn`t have that much effect on the runoff. Accordingly, due to the increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation in cold seasons, the results of runoff simulation have indicated a 24% reduction for 2016-2017 and a 29% reduction for 2017-2018 water years.

Transport is one of the most important activities and an essential component of the economy, which plays an important role in establishing spatial relationships between different locations and, like many existing networks, comprises a set of locations and links that represent inter-location communications. The most fundamental elements of a transportation network are network geometry and level of communication. Investing in transport infrastructure is one of the best ways to develop because economic development in any country requires investment in different sectors and economic activities and without it we cannot expect prosperity, the existence of rural roads and proper transportation play an important role in facilitating sales. And exports of agricultural products and rural products and provides a convenient way to market agricultural products easily. Unfortunately, in Iran, this sector has not been able to reach its true position and needs development and improvement, as many of the problems of rural and urban life are rooted in rural transport. In recent years, only efficient and effective planning can address rural transport issues, bring rural transport services into the area, improve the economic life and communication of the villagers, and solve many of the disadvantages of rural life. In rural areas of Ardebil city where a significant part of the population lives in rural areas, rural transportation and its improvement can improve the conditions and quality of life of the villagers and promote economic growth, rapid transfer of goods to market and immediate customer contact. This is because inadequate access to these areas leads to transportation, backwardness, unemployment and poor infrastructure, leading to rural migration to urban centers. Therefore, in view of the importance of the subject, the present study aimed to investigate the role of rural transport in the development of economic dimensions of rural areas in the central part of Ardebil city (Kalkhuran district) in order to answer the following questions:• From the point of view of household heads, what is the state of transport in the villages?To what extent is the impact of rural transport components on the dimensions of economic  development? What are the dimensions of economic development in the villages under study?

The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of the nature and method of the survey component. The statistical population of this study is 12 villages of Kalkhouran village in the central part of Ardabil city with 2946 households. The sample size was estimated to be 340 according to Cochran's formula, but since in some villages the sample size was below ten, the sample size was increased to 356 for better results. The distribution of samples in the villages was proportional to the number of households and the sampling method in each village was systematic random. In order to operationalize the research variables in the independent variable section, three indicators of transport quality, transportation services and rural transport infrastructure in the form of 15 indicators and in the dependent variable four indicators in the form of 23 indicators were used. The instrument used in this study was a closed-ended Likert-type questionnaire whose face validity was evaluated and modified by experts and finally confirmed. Its reliability was estimated 0.753 for Cronbach's alpha and 0.859 for Economic Development. Multivariate regression, one-sample t-test and finally fuzzy TOPSIS technique were used to classify the villages under study.

After determining the weight of each rural transport indicator, fuzzy TOPSIS technique was used to classify the villages. After calculations, positive and negative ideals were identified. And then the sum of the distances of each village from the positive and negative fuzzy ideals, similarity index was calculated and the level of each village was determined. 0 is at the lowest level of the transport indicators. Multivariate regression coefficient was used to investigate the effect of rural transport on economic development to investigate the contribution of one or more independent variables to the dependent variable; The results showed that considering the significance level of the test with confidence level of 0.95 among the four indices of rural transport, transport infrastructure index with beta coefficient of 0.658 had the most effect on the dependent variable. Is 0.432 of the total variance of economic development. The results of one-sample t-test showed that the dimensions of economic development in the studied villages were desirable because the mean of economic, social and environmental dimensions was higher than 3 desirable (3 equals 60% of the respondents). The highest average (3.375) belongs to the index of job diversification and the lowest average is to economic stimulus.

The results of the research findings to answer these questions show that the role of transport is undeniable in the process of economic development of rural areas, but its indicators have different effects on economic dimensions, such as transport infrastructure index. And the narrative has had the greatest impact on explaining the dimensions of economic development. Diversification of jobs had the highest average, followed by increased income, increased investment of urban origin, and finally, economic excitement had the lowest average. The increase in the number of tourists and travelers to the area and the direct sale of rural products have had an impact on rural incomes, with rural transport having a greater tendency to cultivate marketable and guaranteed purchasing products, on the other hand to invest in industry and Rural services have increased and in addition reduced the cost of transporting goods and manufactured goods to the consumer market.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the effectiveness of the urban spatial organization approach and metropolitan areas of Iran based on changes in modern economic structures with emphasis on the metropolis of Tabriz. Because it seems that in the conditions of incompatibility of the spatial structure of metropolises, which are the cause of growth of national economies and enhance the international and global position of countries, with the role and function commensurate with the changing structures of the world economy, the problem of physical contradictions They will face and the way to globalization of the country through big cities will be blocked for them.

In this article, the basic principles for urban and regional spatial planning and the need to pay attention to the role and position of metropolises using the opinions and theories of experts in this field such as Daniel Bell, Fritz Ma Klopp, Alvin Toffler, Frank & Bed, Youngji Masuda, Simon Nora, Alan Monk, Mark Avery Pourat and Manuel Castells, who have views related to the information society, have been studied and the theoretical foundations of Tabriz metropolitan development plans have been compared.

 In terms of methodology, data collection and analysis has been descriptive and secondary analysis, which has advanced the research work under the branches of survey and case study.Also, in the analysis of this article, content analysis, comparative and test methods have been used.

The main findings of the article are the characteristics of metropolitan space organization based on the requirements of the information society and the use of information paradigm in compiling the ideas and documents of urban development plans and regions of Tabriz metropolis that have been prepared since 1989.

Proper management of catchments is one of the most important ways to make optimal use of water and soil resources. In our country, most of the catchments, especially the mountainous catchments, do not have enough hydrometric and sedimentation stations. This fact makes any development and management plans difficult. Hydrologists and water resources researchers have come up with various solutions but none of them have been completely successful (Roustamiyan et al., 1999; 588 & Shaygan et al., 2011; 2). On the other hand, the limited methods of measurement in hydrology and the need to have a method to generalize the available statistics to areas without statistics or places where measurement is not possible. Also, simulating future hydrological changes is one of the main reasons for hydrological simulation (Beven & Binley, 2001; 46). The ability of the SWAT model to simulate the complex hydrological processes of watersheds in the GIS environment distinguishes this model from integrated models in which larger user units are the basis of operation. 

The study area is part of the Qizil Üzan River. Shahar Chai basin along with other rivers such as Zanjan Chai, Aydughmush, and Qaranquchay is one of the sub-branches of Qizil Üzan that flows northwest and north of the basin and joins near the Myaneh city. The data used in this study include a digital elevation model of 1: 10000 of mapping organization, land use, soil, precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, relative daily humidity of synoptic stations, Sarab, Heris, Bostan Abad, Charoymaq and Runoff and the sediment of Shahar Chai station. In the watershed of Shahar Chai, a soil map prepared by natural resources of East Azerbaijan province has been used. Based on these maps, 21 soil texture classes can be distinguished in the whole basin. Also, based on the land use map, six land use classes in the area were identified.

After parameterization and data entry, the simulation was performed for 20 years from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, based on a monthly time step. To determine the degree of sensitivity of flow parameters in the SWAT model, sensitivity analysis was performed using the SUFI-2 method for 25 selected runoff parameters and 15 selected sedimentation parameters. Using validation results to remove parameters that are less sensitive from the calibration process, it is decided that finally the parameters with lower sensitivity were removed and 13 parameters for runoff and 7 parameters for sediment were selected that were more sensitive. The calibration model for runoff and sediment was done in one step with 1500 simulations in three replications. The calibration process ends when, based on the objective function, the coefficients required for evaluation are acceptable. According to the obtained results, all the evaluation criteria of the model in the simulation of runoff and sediment are allowed.

Examination of the results of the SUFI-2 method in the Shahar Chai basin showed that, based on the evaluation criteria of the coefficients of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe, both in the calibration and validation stages, it has good results in this basin. But they can't predict peak discharge and sediments well. To better determine the performance of the model, first of all, it is recommended that the statistics of stations and numerous and daily runoff and sedimentation measurements should be used instead of monthly, if any, in a basin, to compare their results. Secondly, to achieve the desired results, this model should be used in comparison with other simulation models in this basin and adjacent basins.

The cities are considered as the centers of social, economic and space development, and the most appropriate places for the occurrence of problems. therefore, the main manifestations of development are negative and positive, mainly in cities and one of the tasks of modern societies is the creation of cities and sustainable localities in economic, environment, and special space - physical. The innovation of the present study is the use of all development indicators simultaneously to identify and verify the current situation, which has not been done in any study for the city of Gorgan. the aim of this study is to measure and analyze the level of physical, economic, biological, social and security of urban localities. the present study is applicable in terms of purpose, and its method is descriptive analytical. The statistical population of the study includes all people living in zone 3 of Gorgan city. In the present study, Cochran's formula was used to calculate the sample size and the sample size was estimated to be 384 people. to determine the sample size, the appropriate attribution method was used. the research results show that the new Gorgan neighborhood is located in the best stable condition, after which the neighborhood of Khayyam is located and the neighborhoods of Jangal School, Mikcheh Garan neighborhood, Sarpir and Dabaghan neighborhoods, Kianshahr alley, Javadieh alley, Hafez alley, Buyeh neighborhood are in the next ranks in terms of local sustainability. In addition, there is a lot of inequality in the level of stability of a neighborhood in Gorgan. The results of this research can be used for Gorgan Municipality and the City Council and the Road and Urban Development Administration to intervene to recreate and provide more appropriate services to citizens.Gorgan, like many large cities in the country, faces many problems, including development instability, and this issue reaches its highest level in some neighborhoods. Although neighborhoods are the core of urban life, they have no place in the formal spatial planning system. This has led to an intensification of development instability in them. In the face of the problematic growth of cities, different planning approaches are looking for realistic solutions for urban development, one of the most important approaches is the approach of sustainable development in neighborhoods and urban contexts. While to achieve the stability of society, more attention should be paid to the lower levels. This inconsistent understanding of urban sustainability leads to the lack of an integrated solution and coordinated measures to address such a complex issue, thus necessitating a comprehensive understanding of urban sustainability.

This research is considered as a descriptive-analytical method and in terms of how to collect the required information and data, it is considered as a field and survey research. The present study was applied in terms of purpose. This research has been done in two parts: documentary and field studies. The technique of studying documents, which is based on taking notes from books and written works, has been used to be aware of the opinions of experts in the field of concepts and theoretical issues related to the field of research. The statistical population of the study includes the residents of the neighborhoods of District 3 of Gorgan (114348) which has an area of ​​1,523 hectares. Among them, 384 individuals were selected by convenience sampling

The stability of neighborhoods in the region of three cities of Gorgan is unbalanced. Out of nine neighborhoods, three neighborhoods (Sarpir and Dabaghan neighborhoods, Khayyam alley and Jangal school) studied with the development sustainability index with 95% probability had a significant level higher than (0.05) and their performance in creating sustainability was not accepted. In general, according to the average results, it can be said that the region of three cities of Gorgan is low in terms of the level of neighborhood stability, and therefore the attention of managers and city officials, especially Gorgan Municipality in this regard is necessary to take measures to Increase the sustainability of the neighborhood. In fact, the more development develops in an area, the more sustainable the level of human settlements or neighborhoods.

According to the results, the averages of physical, environmental, economic, social and security dimensions are less than average (3), so the components and sustainability dimensions of Gorgan neighborhoods are in a lower than average condition. The results showed that there is a significant difference in stability between residential areas of Gorgan in residential contexts. So that the average stability of the new Gorgan neighborhood is in the best condition compared to other neighborhoods. Khayyam alley neighborhood. The neighborhoods of Jangal School, Mikcheh Garan, Sar Pir and Dabaghan neighborhoods, Kianshahr alley, Javadieh alley, Buyeh neighborhood are in the next ranks in terms of sustainability.

Today, the phenomenon of land subsidence is one of the most important geomorphological hazards on a global scale, which causes great damage to urban and rural structures, development facilities. Most of the reports from around the world related to the phenomenon of land subsidence have been related to arid and low rainfall areas. According to the US Geological Survey, a subsidence phenomenon involves a collapse or subsidence that can have a small displacement vector. Land subsidence is a geological phenomenon that causes the earth's surface to descend slowly and horizontally.In recent decades, most joints and fissures in agricultural areas have been reported due to over-abstraction of groundwater. Recently, urban areas have also been affected by this phenomenon. These seams and cracks cause a lot of annual damage to ground-level installations such as roads and bridges, buildings, power transmission lines, oil and gas transmission pipes, water pipes and sewage systems, wells wall pipes of exploitation wells. In addition, they provide a path for surface pollutants to move to groundwater sources and contaminate groundwater by infiltrating aquifers.Among the innovations of this study, for the first time, radar interferometry technique was used to investigate the risk of subsidence of Nurabad plain aquifer subsidence. , Identification of vulnerable areas in the aquifer area.

The method used in this research is applied analysis. Groundwater data including piezometer and exploitation wells were used to investigate groundwater level changes and Sentinel 1 images were used to calculate radar interferometry. Geographic weighted regression model (GWR) was used to investigate the relationship between subsidence and groundwater loss parameters.By examining the changes in groundwater level of piezometer wells in the aquifer during a period of 17 years (1380-1397) showed that an average of 15 meters of groundwater drop has occurred in the plain. This decrease in agricultural and residential areas is a priority compared to other uses. By preparing the output of radar images during 4 statistical years, the results show that in 2015 the maximum amount of leakage was 7 cm and in 2016 it increased to 8 cm. In 2017 it is equal to 9 cm and in 2018 it is equal to 10 cm. In the end, by calculating the average of these four years, the amount of subsidence at the aquifer level increases significantly, with the regions in the central and eastern parts of the aquifer having the highest subsidence at the aquifer level. Which has been developed in residential and agricultural areas of the region so that the effects and evidence of these meetings are visible in residential houses and agricultural lands according to Table (2) in the analysis section to examine the status of subsidence rates in the study area using Radar images were taken during the mentioned years and show that in 2015 it is equal to 8 square kilometers, which is compared to 2014, in 2016 it is equal to 34 square kilometers, and in 2017 and 2018 it is equal to 40 and 86 square kilometers. According to the maps, we see in these 4 consecutive years that every year b The amount of subsidence at the plain level has increased and thus subsidence at the plain level has become a kind of hazard.

 High values ​​of R2 have occurred in the central parts of the model aquifer, which shows a good estimate of the model in estimating the dependent variable and the predictive explanatory variable. Also, relatively lower values ​​are located in the southern parts of the aquifer by examining the subsidence status in the plain. By creating a relationship with the groundwater drop layer, it showed that the observed values ​​with the predicted values ​​indicate a strong relationship. The layer shows the coefficient of determination R2, which is the highest coefficient of R2 in the central part, which is about -0.79 Is 0.53 Figure (7). The distribution of the remaining space of the GWR model errors shows that the model outputs are closer to the actual values. Second, the resulting map shows the low error values ​​in the range.

Conclusion:

The average subsidence rate is about 4 cm per year and the average 4-year average is 16 cm. The average area of ​​the aquifer where the subsidence has taken place during 4 years is about 36 square kilometers, which includes about 5% of its area. The high concentration of wells and the greatest drop in groundwater and the concentration of existing cities and villages. In these areas, due to the water needs of the residential community, including the city of Nurabad and surrounding areas, as well as the water needs of the industrial sector, including factories and agricultural activities, access to water resources is more and groundwater extraction is very high. There has been a high decline that these factors with the intervention of the arid climate of this region has caused the high talent of these areas in the discussion of subsidence and has been identified as one of the critical areas of the city in the subsidence map. The results of radar interferometry show that uncontrolled extraction from the surface of underground reserves has caused the subsidence of the central part of the aquifer and also the presence of several aqueducts at the aquifer has caused damage to residential centers. One of the areas with the highest risk of subsidence in the plain, in the eastern, central and southern parts, the rate of groundwater loss in the aquifer within 14 statistical years is about 22 meters in the same well and the results of GWR method show local R2 in the central parts of the aquifer which is about 79% maximum and shows a high correlation between subsidence and groundwater loss Residual rate in the central part which is equal to 0.007 / 0007 which is a high coefficient of significance.

Due to the need for space, high cost, and a long time to perform experiments, the use of physical models is often not recommended. For this reason, many river engineering issues are examined with mathematical models (Azizi et al., 2019).Kalami et al. (2019) in detecting geometric-hydraulic relationships of river cross-sections using an inverse solution of Venant equations showed that after identifying the relationships and comparing them, hydraulic-hydrological process methods have high efficiency and accuracy in simulating river floods. Ouda (2019) in modeling and multi-phase reviewing of sediment transport and bed erosion and changes in river morphodynamics using numerical modeling and analysis of sediment production and transfer mechanisms showed that the current numerical model performs well in most cases of Multiphase test shows sediment transport and erosion.

The study area is located in Khorramabad city of Lorestan province in western Iran From Cham-Anjir station, 12 km from Khorramabad, with an area of ​​1650 km2 up to Doab Vissian station with an area of ​​2450 km2, which in this study includes a part of the permanent river of Khorramabad with a length of approximately 40 km. After entering geometric and flow data into the model, boundary conditions including sediment measurement curve for upstream range and discharge-Ashle curve were performed for downstream range in HEC-RAS hydraulic model and sensitivity results were extracted. Then, using SPSS software, the regression relationship between the dependent variable of Discharge (Q) and independent variables (W), river water surface width (D), average and hydraulic depth of flow, (A) flow cross-section, and (V) velocity The average cross-section (flow) was calculated based on the values ​​of significance level, coefficient of determination and standard error. Based on the results, various simple linear models, degree 2, degree 3, and exponential, and the relationships governing the geometric properties and factors related to the processes affecting the river were investigated. Among them, the relationship with the highest coefficient of determination and the lowest standard error was selected as the appropriate relationship.

Sensitivity analysis of the model shows that with increasing the number of cross-sections, the rate of change of hydraulic parameters along the river has been clearer. Also in Khorramabad River, the number of sections is 421 and the model estimation accuracy is 20.73% for the water level width parameter, 79.65% for the flow depth parameter, and 74.07% for the flow velocity parameter.  In the exponential model, there is no problem with the variables collinearity and the variables do not interact with each other. In models grades 2 and 3, due to the problem of collinearity, these models do not have sufficient validity. In addition, models grades 2 and 3 did not have sufficient validity in terms of both significance level and standard error. Therefore, the exponential model is introduced as a suitable model due to its non-collinearity, P-value less than 1%, and standard error less than other models. In the obtained function, the discharge flow as a dependent variable is directly related to the width of the river. Also has a more direct connection with the flow cross-section. The Discharge also shows a more direct relationship with the flow cross-section. Because the flow cross-section parameter includes two parameters of flow width and depth (geometric variables of the river). In the obtained exponential function, the sediment capacity as a dependent variable has a direct relationship with the average flow velocity, shear stress, and flow rate as an independent variable. According to the relationship obtained between the independent variables of sediment capacity, it is more dependent on the flow rate. As the flow rate increases, the sediment capacity also increases and vice versa.

Studies show that Grade 2 and 3 models did not have sufficient validity due to the problem of being co-linearity and significant level and standard error.In the sediment simulation section, the coefficient of determination obtained in the exponential function for V, Q, SH is less than the values ​​of 2 and 3 degrees regression functions and higher than simple linear regression functions and all variables are meaningful at the level of 1% (99% confidence interval). Also in this function, the variables have the lowest standard error and a significant level compared to the simple linear, grade 2, and grade 3 models. Therefore, they are considered suitable models for the river. The results of the study of exponential functions show that the sediment transport capacity is directly related to the flow rate, flow velocity, and shear stress, and also the flow rate is directly related to the flow cross-section, river width, and flow depth inversely.  This means that with increasing flow, the cross-sectional area of the stream, which includes the width of the river and the depth of the stream, gradually decreases, and also with increasing flow and changes in river morphology, flow velocity and shear stress increase, which results in increased sediment transport capacity and vice versa.

According to previous investigation and examining climatic elements, the hypotheses of global warming and consequently, global climate change is confirmed by majority of climatologists society around the world. The global changes probably continue for the next decades. The changes in climatic elements, by and large, categorized into two types; trends and variation. The trends refer to long term changes, whiles variations indicate vary time interval changes including oscillation, phase, jump (sift), and persistence.Precipitation is one of climatic elements which can properly reflect chaotic behavior of climate system, and illustrate the nature of changes in the system. Trends, Oscillation, and persistence in this element are investigated in national and international scale, whilst the decadal variations as an index of climate variation can contribute to the current literature. In current study we attempted to illustrate an objective feature of precipitation characteristics and its anomalies over four recent decades by using Asfezari National Dataset (AND).          

In the present study, the gridded precipitation data of the third version of AND with spatial resolution of 10×10 km during the time period of 1970/3/21 to 2016/3/19 (46 years including 16801 days) is used. This dataset adopted from 2188 synoptic, climatology, and rain gauge stations and subjected to interpolation by using Kriging interpolation method. The dataset covers an area from  N  and E. Accordingly, a pixels cover the area for 16203 days. Consequently, the dataset includes  dimensions.General spatial features of Iran precipitation for the whole under investigation period was studied based on climatological annual precipitation. Next, the same characteristics calculated for four decades ending up to 2016/3/19. Finally, for every decade the anomalies of precipitation in compare with the whole understudy period and its previous decades calculated in order to discover the spatial pattern of decadal fluctuation in precipitation.   

General characteristics of annual precipitation Annual mean of precipitation over Iran is 250.5 mm. Due to decline in temperature contrast and strength of fronts in the Mediterranean cyclones, as a main source of precipitation in Iran, the annual precipitation over Iran decreases from west to east, and from north to south.The annual precipitation in 63.2% of Iran is lower than the climatic annual mean. The annual mean of precipitation in this area which generally located in east and south of the country is approximately 150.5 mm. Thus, the total precipitation in this area is equal to the total precipitation in the rest 36.8% of the country which its annual precipitation is more than the annual precipitation in the country, 422 mm.  The spatial variation of precipitation is confirm by other statistics, for instance, skewness, kurtosis, the extreme threshold indices. For instance, a large part of Iran (26.73%) includes 100-150 mm annual precipitation, whiles the precipitation in 15.8% of the country reaches to 150-200 mm. Parts of northeast of Iran, and the coast  of Persian Gulf  and Oman Sea in the south, in addition to southern slops of Alborz mountain chain experience a precipitation amount of lower than 100 mm. In contrast to the above-mentioned dry regions, the (approximately) wet regions include limited areas for each precipitation class. For example, only 9.1% of the country characterized with 500 mm of precipitation, while the classes of 200-300, 300-400, and 400-500 comprise 20.62, 12.64, and 6.11 percents of the country, respectively.

Decadal variation of precipitation :

 In current section the spatial distribution and statistical features of precipitation in each decades was illustrated. The following list includes our finding of statistical - graphical analysis of precipitation in four successive decades:1)Thedifference between spatial mean and median of annual precipitation increased from the first to the last decades. The increasing in this characteristic refers to increase in spatial asymmetrical distribution of precipitation over the country.2) A comparison between spatial distribution of precipitation maps showed that generally, the areas experienced precipitation above the decadal and whole period average are decreased from the first and last decades.3) The increase in spatial skewness from the first decade to the last decade is another evidence of increasing in precipitation spatial differences.4) The last but not the least finding is the changes in the extreme threshold indices. From the first to the last decade, the range of 10th and 90th percentiles have increased.           

Previous studies depicted that the amount of Iran precipitation has decreased over recent decades. In order to investigate the role of each decade in the decreasing values, the gridded precipitation data of the third version of AND with spatial resolution of 10×10 km during the time period of 1970/3/21 to 2016/3/19 (16801 days) is used. General spatial features of Iran precipitation for the whole under investigation period was investigated based on climatological annual precipitation. Next, the same characteristics calculated for four decades ending up to 2016/3/19. Finally, anomalies of precipitation in compare with the whole understudy period and previous decades calculated in order to discover the spatial pattern of decadal fluctuation in precipitation. Our finding showed that by and large, precipitation has decreased over recent decades. The changes has been more pronounced in southern and northern coastal area, western slopes of Zagros mountain chain, and northern slopes of Alborz mountain chains. Previous researchers attribute these changes to changes in humidity advections in recent years.

One of the climatic factors that occur during the cold period of the year in most parts of the country is the phenomenon of cold and glacial. Glacial begins when the temperature decreases and falls to a certain critical threshold, and with the effects it has on the earth's surface, it affects human life as well as construction activities and the yield of horticultural crops. This complication occurs on fruit trees in winter or early spring and causes a lot of damage. The glacial phenomenon not only endangers the natural life of all living things but also plays an important and decisive role in economic, environmental, and development matters such as roads, dams, and bridges. Glacial is very important in different stages of growth of agricultural and horticultural crops. Because if happen, it leads to production constraints. Glacial means zero temperatures or less than zero. Likewise in terms of technology for agriculture, in the event of thin ice crystals formation on the surfaces with sub-zero temperatures, the temperature of the surface air layer is reached above the dew point. In terms of farming meteorology, glacial is related to the low-temperature alteration which causes damage to the tissues of the plant. Glacials can be classified based on the severity, duration, and timing of occurrence. The classification based on the severity is the power of energy distribution components, which usually are measured based on average temperature, minimum, and average of zero and sub-zero and the lowest temperature of the minimums. The beginning and end dates of the glacial period are important from an agricultural point of view. The first glacial that occurs at the beginning of the glacial age is called early autumn glacial. In the autumn, glacial earlier than normal damage to actively growing branches. The last glacial that occurs at the end of the glacial period is called the late spring glacial. Fruit trees are increasingly susceptible to glacial damage from the time flower buds open, during flowering to the stage of small green fruit. To minimize glacial damage in susceptible areas, full knowledge of the frequency, persistence, and timing of glacial events is essential. To measure the risk of glacial, the recorded data of the minimum air temperature in meteorological stations are used. From a meteorological point of view, glacial occurs when the surface temperature and vegetation on it decrease to less than zero degrees Celsius.

In the current study, the minimum daily temperature statistics of 10 meteorological stations during a period of 17 years (2001-2018) have been used. To analyze the frequency of glacial occurrences for each year, the time of occurrence of the first early autumn glacial and the last late spring glacial was obtained. To convert the data into processable numbers based on the Julian days, each date is assigned a number. Based on this, the September 23 (1st of Mehr) was considered No. 1 and August 23 (31st of Shahrivar) in normal crop years was considered 365, and based on this, the number of the first glacial (early autumn cold) and the last glacial (late spring cold) were identified separately based on the stations during each crop year. Days, when the temperature was less than zero degrees Celsius, were extracted as glacial day and glacial at 5 weak temperature thresholds (temperature between zero to -1.9 degrees Celsius), mild (temperature between -1.9 to -3.9 ° C), moderate (temperature -4 to -5.9 ° C), severe (temperature between -6 to -9.9 ° C) and very severe (temperature -10 ° C and Less) was studied (adapted from Qalehri, 2018: 16). Using SPSS software, the best statistical sequence was obtained to calculate the start and end dates of glacial at different probability levels. The results indicated that most of the selected statistical series have a normal distribution. ArcGIS software was used to zoning the time of onset and end of glacial and to prepare many maps of glacial occurrence.

The spatial distribution of the beginning of the glacial in the province follows the topographic state of the region and begins earlier in the southern and southeastern parts of the province. In some parts of the southern and southeastern regions, due to the high altitude of the region and being located in the mountainous areas, early autumn glacial occurs earlier, such as Garizat station, and occurs from November 6 to 12 (Aban 15 to 21). At Bafgh station, the beginning of autumn glacial occurs from November 13 to 19 (Aban 22 to 28). At Marvast, Meybod, and Abarkooh stations, the starting date of glacial is from November 20 to 25 (Aban 29 to Azar 4). The date of occurrence of early autumn glacial in Herat and Robat stations is November 26 to December 2 (5 to 11 Azar). The beginning date of glacial in Mehriz, Yazd, and Aqda stations is from December 3 to 9 (12-18 Azar). The beginning date of glacial based on different probabilities in Garizat stations with a probability of 30%, is November 3 (12 Aban), with a probability of 50% is November 6 (15 Aban), with a probability of 70%, November 9 (18 Aban), and with a probability of 90%, November 14 (Aban 23), as the earliest start date of autumn glacial. At Yazd station, with a probability of 30%, the first glacial has occurred on November 23 (2 Azar), with a probability of 50%, December 4 (Azar 13), with a probability of 70%, December 8 (Azar 17) and with a probability of 90% on December 24[Ma1]  (3 Dey). The glacial at Bafgh station will end sooner on January 8 -17 (18-27 Bahman). Glacial in central and southern areas such as Mehriz, Yazd, Aqda, and Herat will end on February 18 to February 26 (Bahman 28 to Esfand 7). At Meybod, Abarkooh, and Robat Posht Badam stations, the end date of the glacial is February 27 to March 9 (Esfand 8-18). At Marvast station, the end of the glacial occurred on March 9-19 (Esfand 18-28). In the highlands, including Garizat station, the glacial starts earlier and ends later, so the glacial season is longer in these areas and the growing season is shorter, March 20-30 (Esfand 29 to Farvardin 10). The end date of glacial at Bafgh station with a probability of 30%, occurs at January 23 (Bahman 3), with a probability of 50%, February 12 (Bahman 23), with a probability of 70%, February 25 (Esfand 6) and with a probability of 90%, March 5 (Esfand 14). At Garizat station, the last glacial occurs with a probability of 30% on March 26, (Farvardin 6), with a probability of 50%, on March 29 (Farvardin 9), with a probability of 70% on March 31 (Farvardin 11), and with a probability of 90% on April 8 (Farvardin 19).The spatial distribution of the number of glacial days on the threshold zero shows that southeast areas including Garizat station have the most frosty days (1685 days) and Bafgh (483 days), Mehriz (484 days), Robate Posht Badam (518 days),Yazd (463 days) and Aqda (362 days) have the lowest number of glacial days during the statistical period (2001-2018). Spatial distribution of glacial occurrence at temperature thresholds of (0 and -1.9) have the highest number of glacials and the central and northern regions have the lowest number of glacials. Therefore, the Garizat station (467 days) has the highest amount of glacial, and Bafgh and Aqda stations have the lowest amount of glacial at this threshold. Likewise, on the threshold (-2 to -3.9), the southeastern and northwestern regions have the highest number of glacial and the northern and central regions have the lowest number of glacial. So, Garizat, Abarkooh, and Meybod stations have the highest amount of glacial and Mehriz, Yazd, Bafgh, Robat-e Posht Badam and Aqda stations have the lowest amount of glacial at this threshold.

Studies conducted between the start and end dates of glacial and the height of selected stations showed that there is a significant relationship between altitude and the date of occurrence of early autumn glacials. As altitude increases, glacial begins sooner. This fact designates that early autumn glacials happen earlier in the mountains than in the plains. The glacial onset map shows that in the plains of the province, the time of the first glacial is about a month later than the highlands of the province. In late spring glacials, the relationship between altitude and the end of the glacial is direct and by increasing the altitude, the date of the last spring glacial is delayed. This indicates that in the plains, the glacial period begins later and ends earlier, in other words, the glacial season in these areas is shorter and the growing season is longer. Conversely, in the highlands, the length of the glacial increases, and the length of growth decreases. This is significant from an agricultural point of view. Besides, the frequency of glacial in the southern and southeastern regions is higher than in the northern and northeastern regions, which has a significant relationship with altitude. The results of the analyzes showed that the Garizat station has the most glacial at all thresholds in the studied period. The lowest amount of glacial days is related to Bafgh, Aqda, and Mehriz stations in the temperature threshold (less than -10). The spatial distribution of the occurrence of glacial at different temperature thresholds also showed that in general, the southern and southeastern regions of the province have the highest frequency of this phenomenon, and as we move to the north of the province, the frequency of glacial decreases.

We are today facing a growing number of vehicles, which poses an interference in the performance of urban intersections, particularly Squares. Urban road network does not make a lot of problems for traffic, but its major cause is the intersections resulting in congestion in the network due to the interference in the continuous flow and its conversion into incontinuous flow. This study attempted to provide the closest simulation to reality for 13 Aban Square in Hamadan by determining drivers' behavior and applying local parameters in EMSAN software.

In this study, in order to evaluate the drivers' behavior at intersections, traffic parameters were performed using field studies and the review of microscopic parameters was simulated in a realistic way. Data were collected in the field is by video recording for one hour without interruption during a peak hour of noon. One of the advantages of this method over traffic counting is the calculation of vehicle origin-destination statistics, which provides a better simulation close to the current situation. First, the required geometric data must be collected from the desired location, including the width of route entries and exits, the radius of circumscribed circle, the radius of central Square and other construction protrusions, and applied carefully close to reality in the software. The statistics of route entries were recorded by video recording without interruption at the peak hour from 12:30 to 13:30 from the high point on the northwest side of the approach on Tuesday, November 21, 2018. After determining the drivers' behavior and localization practices, the data were entered into the software and the results were compared in two scenarios. A new cycle plan was also designed and provided for this intersection with SIDRA software, which was applied simultaneously with localization. First, the effect of traffic light application was determined on the microscopic characteristics of Square traffic flow such as delay, vehicle speed, level of service, number of vehicles waiting in line, and travel time using software. The results showed the lowest value following the application of drivers' behavior and simulation for delay in the first scenario and speed in the current situation and the second scenario. Travel time also showed an increase by 54% for the current situation, by 6% for the no-light mode, and by 50% for the 80-second cycle mode.

Validation performed by fitting approximately 80% with the current situation calculated from the software, such as the same practice regarding the latency after determining the localized parameters, revealed the accuracy of the calculations and the correctness of the path travelled in the localization process. Travel time is one of the criteria used to assess the characteristics of traffic flow in urban road network and intersections. Vehicle travel time indicates characteristics such as delay, line length, flow rate and network level of service. It is not unreasonable to expect a change in travel time charts with increasing delay and decreasing speed, so that we observe a 54% increase for the current situation, a 6% decrease for the non-lighted mode, and a 50% increase for the 80-second cycle duration. Effectiveness and accuracy of localization process can be confirmed by analyzing the effect of localization of different software parameters on the outputs, investigating the fitness of the modeling results with reality, and by comparing the difference between the software output results in the two cases before and after localization. Delay and mean travel time parameters were selected as the most significant and common parameters in lighted intersections in line with the validation of the simulations. There was only a 5.5% difference between the current situation of 13 Aban Square and the field validation, confirming the coherence of localization in the software.

As can be seen in Tables of this study, it should be noted that the delay parameter has a direct effect on other parameters of an intersection. In this regard, validation was performed for the travel time parameter in line with the delay parameter and the test vehicle method was used. However, the tables were not presented in order to avoid prolonging the article. The results revealed that the validation performed by fitting about 80% with the current situation calculated from the software, such as the same findings regarding the delay, shows the accuracy of the calculations and the correctness of the path travelled in the localization process.

Recognizing and examining the housing situation in a country depends on identifying and analyzing the factors affecting housing. To assess the housing situation, housing indicators that express the quantity and quality of different dimensions of housing can be studied. Indicators are tools to measure the housing situation and its evolution, as well as assess the success rate and implementation of housing policies. Paying attention to the quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing is one of the most important issues in housing planning. Housing, as the most basic human need, has become very important in the life of urban communities, so that it has become one of the most effective components of measuring the quality and well-being of citizens.Futures studies are now well over 50 years old. Discussants pointed out that the term ‘futurology’ was first introduced by Ossip Flechteim in his 1966 book History and Futurology. Eleonora Masini suggested that Flechteim himself did not have a great deal of confidence in the term, nor was he sure whether the said discipline was a ‘science’ or a ‘prescientific’ branch of knowledge. But he was certain that the new field ranged from ‘the destiny of man, the future of his society to the entire range of his future cultural activities. The strongest defense of ‘futurology’ was provided by Pentti Malaska. Malaska argued, describes ‘what futures knowledge is all about – not only epistemologically, i.e. how to acquire knowledge of the future with different techniques for this or that pragmatic purpose but especially ontologically, i.e. what the knowledge of the future may mean. Dator’s First Law of Futures states, ‘The future cannot be ‘‘predicted’’ but alternative futures can be ‘‘forecasted’’. Warren Wagar in his The Next Three Futures and in tracing the history of future studies consistently uses the term ‘futurism’. Futures studies are a mosaic of approaches, objectives, and methods, and many parts of it are in different stages of evolution.

The present research is applied in terms of its purpose and is descriptive-analytical in terms of its nature. To collect data has been used of statistical yearbooks, censuses of different periods as well as completing a questionnaire from 40 experts in the field of housing. To analyze the data and determine the strategic indicators has been used of the method of structural/cross-impact analysis approach with MICMAC software and to determine the most probable scenarios has been used of Wizard scenario software.

In the last 40 years in the metropolis of Tabriz, housing has improved in all quantitative indicators except the average number of rooms in a residential unit. Reasons for the decrease in the number of rooms in a residential unit are the change in the architectural style of houses and the transformation of households from widespread to nuclear. Information on the infrastructure of ​​residential units also shows that the infrastructure is moving towards standardization and the number of residential units with very low and very high infrastructure has been decreasing. Regarding the quality of housing, all indicators indicate an improvement of trend in the last 40 years, and the only indicator of the housing ownership, despite the increase in the number of owner-occupied households, shows a decrease in the percentage of owners and an increase in the percentage of tenants. Also among the 16 indicators affecting the quantitative and qualitative status of housing in the metropolis of Tabriz, 5 indicators of the average infrastructure of the residential unit, housing with a lifespan of fewer than 30 years, household density in the residential unit, person density in the residential unit and the average room in the residential unit known as strategic and key variables in the future state of housing and two scenarios were identified as the most likely scenarios in the housing sector in the metropolis of Tabriz. In the first scenario, we will see a decrease in the infrastructure of housing units, a decrease in household density and individual density in a housing unit, and a decrease in the average number of rooms per housing, and an increase in units with a lifespan of fewer than 30 years. In the second scenario, we will see the stability of the infrastructure of housing units, the stability of household density and individual density in the housing unit, and the stability average of rooms in housing, and continue to increase housing with a lifespan of fewer than 30 years.

The results of the present study show that all quantitative indicators of the housing situation in Tabriz have been improved in the last 40 years and only a slight downward trend is observed in the average room index in each residential unit. We also see acceptable growth in housing quality indicators. Although the research results indicate an improving trend in housing quality and quantity indicators in the Tabriz metropolis, there is still a long way to reach the ideal housing conditions. Therefore, to achieve a better quantitative and qualitative status of housing in Tabriz metropolis, conduct comprehensive housing plan studies, employ housing specialists and professors to plan and policy in the field of housing, identify diverse population groups and consider all population groups, age and income and construction of housing in accordance with the needs of each group, using the experiences and studies of successful countries in the field of housing and their adaptation to demographic, cultural and economic conditions of the geographical area and more emphasis on effective housing indicators along with other indicators in housing planning and construction is suggested.

 Quality of life, as a concept, is an indicator of a person's level of satisfaction with life, in other words, a criterion for determining satisfaction and dissatisfaction of individuals and groups with different aspects of life. Quality of urban life is one of the most important areas of urban studies in different countries. In general, according to field research, and information obtained from the municipality, and relevant authorities, and comparison with the introduced standards, by credible sources, the quality of life in the neighborhoods of Shahrekord is low for various reasons. Comprehensive studies are needed in all specialties to serve urban managers and planners for urban development planning. Examining the quality of life in Shahrekord, causes the shortcomings and weaknesses of this city to be realized in this regard, and appropriate plans should be made based on them. Shahrekord, as one of the middle cities of the country, has witnessed a large migration of surrounding towns and villages in recent years and this has caused the quality of life to be somewhat in crisis due to marginalization and the presence and occurrence of people with different cultures. This makes it necessary to examine the quality of urban life in this city. This study aims to investigate and evaluate the quality of urban life in Shahrekord.

The method of this research is applied in terms of purpose, and in terms of methodology, at the same time, with the exploratory approach (causal) and survey technique, it is based on descriptive-analytical nature. The statistical population of this study, including all citizens of Shahrekord, in 2016, is 190441 people. The sample size, according to the Morgan table, is 383 people. The questionnaire has two dimensions of urban quality of life, with three sub-categories (social, economic, and physical), with 32 questions, and the Citizens' Satisfaction Questionnaire with 13 questions, the validity of which is formal, which has been approved by experts. The construct validity, which was confirmed by factor analysis, and its reliability, based on Cronbach's alpha, was confirmed to be 0.83. To analyze the data, statistical methods of one-sample T-test were used with SPSS software, and structural equation analysis based on Smart PLS software was used.

The quality of the urban environment is a measure of the quality of the living environment, which is the least desirable for urban life, and one of the factors influencing it is the amount and manner of social services, hierarchy in major urban applications and services, social security in urban spaces, access to urban spaces, location of uses, and the main spaces of the city, urban environment, performance of different parts of the city, ongoing activities in the urban environment, attention to the identity and culture of natives, etc. An important reason for such attention to the (concept) of quality, considering urban planning and design, simultaneously and interactively, is one of the solutions that can achieve the improvement of functional quality in urban spaces. The quality of urban life is usually measured by the mental characteristics of the survey, and assessing the citizens' perceptions and satisfaction of urban life, or by the objective characteristics of secondary data, and rarely by both types of characteristics. Therefore, concern about the quality of modern life is a feature of contemporary society, which can be a function of the quality of the environment. Also, degradation in the quality of the urban environment can be the result of some economic activities.

The results of this study reveal that the results of T-test analyzes show that the citizens of this area, in economic dimensions, which include the indicators of job opportunities, educational facilities, recreational facilities, and health facilities, are in above-average conditions. And from these indicators, the quality of urban life is in an acceptable position. Also, social indicators that include a sense of personal security, satisfaction with life's successes, relationships with neighbors, and satisfaction with a sense of belonging, according to the results obtained, are below the average of quality of life, and physical characteristics, which include satisfaction with aggregation. And waste disposal, green space, and parks, water quality, street condition, public transportation, the traffic situation in city affairs are lower than the average. In general, development planning in Shahrekord should be targeted and tailored to local resources and people's objective and mental needs, to help improve the quality of life of the city's residents. Also, it is necessary to improve the quality of life, as the main goal of urban and regional development projects. The level of citizens' satisfaction with the quality of their living environment is not at the desired physical level. Also, the results obtained from structural equations indicate that research relationships of the social index on citizen satisfaction, with path coefficient 0.19 and T=2.25, economic index on citizen satisfaction, with path coefficient 0.27 and T=2.74, physical index on citizen satisfaction, with a path factor of 0.61 and a value of T=3.85, are validated.

Global goals such as the sustainable development of the United Nations as well as the requirements and commitments of the private sector such as supply chains sustainably manner cause growing demand for sustainable investment opportunities in the food and agriculture sectors. Thus, the expansion of investment in agriculture and related industries in the form of public and private investment can create more job opportunities in rural areas and thus prevent the migration of villagers to cities and increase the growth rate of the agricultural sector.  However, in such conditions, due to uncertainty, the ability to assess the real risk (as opposed to perceived risk) and the availability of risk reduction tools are the main elements of investment decisions, regardless of the type of investor or even the provision of financial resources. In this framework, the concept of "investment readiness" has emerged as a tool to guide policies and programs aimed at reducing barriers to investment in small and medium-sized businesses.Based on research, social capital, including social networks and norms, values ​​and attitudes distributed in such networks, have shown a positive effect on economic growth, financial development, joint investments, trade and entrepreneurship. With a reduction in natural resources for local and regional development and the tendency to converge in human capital, social capital has become increasingly important for economic growth. Social capital leads to risky economic decisions by increasing the sense of power in people. In other words, social capital can moderate risk tolerance in people related to local community, since it provides a way to provide individual risks. For example, Bloch et al. (2008) stated that social capital provides an informal insurance mechanism that can increase risk-taking in economic investors. Also, in some studies, scientists have considered social capital as a valuable resource that expands access to various other sources, including financial resources, market information, and customers.

The present study was applied in terms of method and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature. The data collection method in the present study was a combination of library and survey methods (direct observation and questionnaire). The statistical population of the study included owners of rice-threshing factories located in rural areas of Someh Sara city. There are 55 rice-threshing factories in the study area, and a questionnaire was completed for all the people in the area. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used for internal consistency and reliability of the questionnaire. For this purpose, 20 questionnaires were completed in the pre-test stage and Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.751 was obtained, indicating a good level of reliability of the questionnaire.

The results revealed that the mean score of the observed sense of security is 3.1 with a standard deviation of 0.3, which is significantly different from the standard score (3). From the investors' point of view, the most sense of security was in the area of supportive security with a mean of 3.26, followed by economic, political, geographical and legal security, respectively. The results of Pearson correlation showed a direct and positive relationship between social capital and geographical security, supportive security, political security and social security and a negative relationship between social capital and sense of legal security. In addition, investigating the relationship between investment security and social capital indicators showed a significant direct and positive relationship between investment security and social capital indicators (other than social participation). Moreover, based on the results of regression analysis and the coefficient of determination (0.799), independent variables explained about 80% of sense of investment security in the sample population. Thus, for systematically explaining of the effect of social capital indicators on investors' sense of security and achieve a comprehensive model, the multivariate technique of path analysis was used and the direct and indirect effects of the desired variables were examined in a model.According to the research results, indicators of legal security, political security, geographical security, social security in relation to the variable of investment security as well as indicators of institutional performance and institutional trust and interpersonal and generalized trust and social participation in relation to the social capital variable were among the factors affecting the sense of investment security. In this regard, the direct factors affecting the sense of security of rural investors include legal security, political security, geographical security, social security, institutional performance and trust, respectively. Factors that indirectly affect the sense of security of investors also include social networks (through indicators of economic security and social security), social solidarity (through indicators of supportive security, social security, legal security, political security and geographical security), social participation (through institutional performance indicators and social security), and legal security (through indicators of geographical security, political security, supportive security, social security and institutional performance).

Although in some cases, business enterprises make risky investments with the hope of achieving high returns, investment is a process that is not compatible with risk. In such conditions, governments can play a major role. In fact, development-oriented governments are obliged to review and reform the rules and regulations, reduce bureaucracies, increase the transparency of licensing, and pave the way for economic activities and investment, especially in vulnerable and deprived rural areas, since institutional performance, institutional trust and social networks were identified as the most effective indicators of social capital in the sense of security of rural investors.  As observed, Someh Sara has a great capacity in the area of fish farming (ranked second in terms of fish production in the province) and a great variety of crops (rice, beans, watermelon, peanuts, beans, garlic) and garden products (strawberries, apples, pomegranates, peaches, nectarines and pears). However, it does not have much variety in conversion and complementary industries, and even no investment has been made in some products such as fish processing, peanuts and strawberries. Nothing special has happened. However, if safe conditions are provided for investment by relying on social capital indicators, the special capabilities of the city in the area of sustainable rural and even regional development can be used.

One of the main approaches to the physical-spatial development of metropolises is to use the maximum available capacities of the city and minimize its limitations by using all available resources of the city. This approach requires planning in the form of intermittent development, and non-use of resources and lands outside the city, if there are internal resources and uses, including brown and unused lands, and especially polluting. The importance of endogenous urban development for the management and reuse of brown lands is such that the abandonment of these lands will greatly cause damage to local communities and inefficient physical spatial management of the city in the future. On the other hand, these lands, due to their characteristics, are polluting and causing environmental damage to a large extent, threatening the health of local communities. However, achieving a scientific and operational mechanism is very important in providing a suitable model for mid-term development based on the optimal management of brown lands. The metropolis of Tabriz, as a trans-regional city, is facing several physical-spatial challenges in the field of interstitial development and optimal management of brown lands. Therefore, maintaining coherent and desirable patterns of urban development in order to manage lands incompatible with urban function is one of the main problems of land use management and endogenous development of this city. This study seeks to explain and analyze the opportunities that can be developed within the city by using the components of interdependent development and brown land management approaches of the present study. Therefore, a preliminary review of the research literature in this field shows that the activity that seeks to provide the desired model of intermediate development in the form of grounded theory has not been presented so far and the studies are general approaches, and only preliminary explanations of Indicators and effective factors in development have been intermittent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to explain mesenteric development by adopting an approach based on data foundation theory in the field of brown land management. Therefore, the main question of the research is, what is the optimal model of mid-term development based on the components of brown land management in the metropolis of Tabriz?

The present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. Data were collected by library and field studies based on an expert questionnaire. The statistical population of the study includes the residents of Tabriz, but due to the specialization of the subject, the statistical population of experts using the Delphi method has been used to distribute the questionnaire. The method of sampling snowballs is 30 people. For data analysis, one-sample t-test and path analysis in the form of DPSIR model with the help of SPSS software were used.

The results of quantitative and field studies showed that the population dynamics component with a factor of 0.26 has a very small role in intermediate development. In contrast, urban planning and legal criteria with a coefficient of 5.42 have a significant impact on this issue and for the optimal management of brown lands and achieving the desired pattern of intermediate development, special emphasis should be placed on this concept and criterion. In addition, the analysis of indicators in the form of DPSIR model showed that the "response" component with a coefficient of 3.3 received the highest score. Therefore, according to the group of experts in the statistical community, for the development of the desired intermediate in the metropolis of Tabriz, special emphasis should be placed on the response forces (such as: security; pollution; environmental health; urban space formation). Because, these factors can provide more operational models and strategies to organize and exit the current trend. In contrast, the impact component with a coefficient of 2.73 received the lowest score. On the other hand, the study of components with path analysis test showed that the "pressure" index with a total effect coefficient of 0.623 has the greatest impact and causal relationship with the favorable pattern of interstitial development and brown land management. On the other hand, the "response" components with a total effect factor of 0.591; "Impact" with a total effect factor of 0.556; "Status" with a total effect factor of 0.547; And "driving force" with a total effect factor of 0.537.

Finally, according to the obtained results, in order to achieve the optimal and desirable pattern of intergenerational development and management of brown lands, it is necessary to observe the following: Development of tax rules and mechanisms for brown and polluting lands in order to oblige owners of brown lands to change the required land uses of the city Organizing the city structure and using the land use capacities and improving the access distance Transfer of non-urban uses such as military barracks, and change of use of agricultural lands to green space and parks and change of industrial uses to required general uses Regulating the urban road network and increasing the capacity of the road network, especially in the central urban context in order to increase access and reduce traffic Strengthen the quality of housing by monitoring construction and providing facilities to citizens Upgrading environmental capacity to rejuvenate the living space away from any pollution