پژوهشنامه حمل و نقل
سال هجدهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 68، پاییز 1400)

Nowadays, with remarkable and rapid advance in aerial transportation throughout the world, airports are confronted with passenger traffic growth. the world's major airports replace the airport modern management into the absolute development of flying parts, to increase the capacity of airports and prevent the cost surplus to requirements. One of the problems is the lack of available space for the development of the flying field. Meanwhile, duo to the comprehensive sanctions against Iran especially in aviation and increase in aerial traffic, air fleet has been exhausted. According to the recent political agreement and Iran will to modernize the fleet, in the not too distant future it is expected the country's airport capacity will not be adequate for the air traffics. Due to economic policy as well as strategic locations, Tehran Mehrabad and Imam Khomeini airports should have the ability to meet the highest volume of air traffic; while there are problems of land possession and development in Mehrabad airport because of the age of the establishment and Imam Khomeini Airport also requires planning for development in the future.In this study, according to the air traffic prediction in the years 1394, 1404 and 1414, the number of required position in Mehrabad airport will be determined 44, 61 and 81 and 21, 38 and 63 positions in Imam Khomeini International Airport respectively. And then by examining factors affecting the capacity of stopover airports, Mehrabad and Imam Khomeini airport capacity at peak hours will be 3 and 4 aircrafts with operating category C in the year 1404 and, 4 and 6 aircraft in 1414. Moreover, it is predicted that the development area in Mehrabad and Imam Khomeini airports will be 10700 and 42800 square meters in the year 1404 and 95000 and 267300 square meters in the year 1414.

Rutting is among the most important distresses in flexible pavements, which is mainly influenced by asphalt mixes properties at high temperatures. There are different methods for measuring the rutting resistance of asphalt mixes. Flow number of asphalt mix, which is measured experimentally by dynamic creep test is one of the most commonly used rutting index, which requires advanced devices, notable cost and time. This paper aims to develop a simple model for predicting the flow number of asphalt mixes using Evolutionary polynomial Regression (EPR). The developed model can be used for predicting flow number based on Marshall mix design parameters including percentage of fine and coarse aggregates, bitumen content, filler content, air void content, void in mineral aggregate, Marshall stability, and flow. The coefficient of determination (R2) of model in case of training and testing set is 0.9714, and 0.969, respectively, which confirms the high accuracy of model. Comparison of the developed model with the existing models shows the superior performance of the developed model. In addition, the parametric analysis indicates the proper conformity of the developed model with the physical behavior of the asphalt mixtures.

According to the latest technological advances in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), sooner or later, Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) will enter the market widely and affect many aspects of transportation planning. Items such as value of time, modal split, travel time, vehicle-kilometer, parking cost, operating cost, etc. Therefore, this research tries to determine the effects of AVs on modal split in Qom. At the first stage, synthesized population, Households and person information, land use, traffic analysis zone information and traffic skims gathered and entered to Activitysim software to forecast the demand by using activity-based models. Afterwards, in order to determine the effects of AVs on modal split, travel time, parking cost and operating cost, which are considered to alter dramatically by the presence of autonomous vehicles, gradually changed in 10 steps. Then, the outcomes for each step and each specific trip purpose were analyzed. The results show that parking cost has the major effect on private AVs and travel time plays the main role in case of Shared Autonomous Vehicles.

In this study, in order to evaluate the performance of neural network, two models of MLP neural network and RBF neural network were used to predict flexural, tensile and compressive strengths. The data used are taken from the results of models fitted to the results of tests performed on roller concrete samples containing different amounts of recycled crumb rubber, fly ash and nanosilica based on compressive, flexural and tensile strength tests. Different types of artificial neural networks have been used to predict the types of concrete strength. In each section, the structure of the neural network used is given along with the table of input information and output results of that network. In each type of neural network, the number of layers and the number of different neurons have been used for modeling. In the tables, the green rows represent the best structure that has been able to predict the strength of concrete well. Also, the best result (lowest error and highest correlation coefficient) has been selected by considering the network performance in simultaneous prediction of resistance types. The results of compressive and tensile strengths are in the same direction and generally in the same direction, but flexural strength usually shows different results.

To reduce traffic in the central area of Tehran and thus reduce air pollution, a toll management plan is being implemented in this area of the city. In the present study, the mode choice within the congestion pricing scheme has been investigated with respect to the base hour scenarios. The statistical population consists of 1388 respondents who were provided for the analysis of the subject in question by answering to each of the three price scenarios of 4164 observations. In addition, a latent class model is used to investigate the heterogeneity in passenger behavior and the impact of price on mode choice. Based on the results of the latent class model, the sensitivity of different groups to the price is different, so that in the class with a higher probability of being employed, the sensitivity to the price of the congestion pricing is also less. The calculation of the variable marginal effect of the traffic plan cost shows that, if the traffic cost of the project exceeds 1000 toman, the likelihood of choosing a personal car option is reduced by an average of 0.1984 percent in the three classes.

The subsidence caused by the increase in the exploitation of groundwater resources has a long history compared to its restoration potential in some internal regions of Iran. In recent years, land subsidence has caused serious environmental hazards in various plains and regions of Iran. Land subsidence is one of the environmental hazards that humans have faced in recent decades due to uncontrolled extraction of groundwater resources. This phenomenon, like other hazards such as earthquakes, droughts, floods, storms, landslides, etc., is one of the obstacles to socio-economic and development. The subsidence phenomenon is usually associated with many risks. This phenomenon can cause infrastructural, natural and ultimately damage to society and the economy. In recent years in Iran, with the increase in subsidence, buildings, airports, bridges, tunnels, streets, rail and road lines have been severely damaged. For this purpose, in this study, the amount of land subsidence in Kerman airport was analyzed using Sentinel-1 satellite radar images from 2014 to 2020 in Snap software using radar interference measurement technique. The subsidence rate of this range from 2014 to 2017 is at least 3.3 cm and maximum 6 cm, from 2017 to 2020 at least 3.6 cm and maximum 2.13 cm and from January 2020 to April was a minimum of 0.03 cm and a maximum of 13.2 cm, which shows a significant increase. Increased utilization of groundwater resources, compaction due to land drainage and compression due to the imposition of heavy loads (aircraft, structural loads, etc.) can be mentioned as main factors of subsidence in this area.

Typically, speeding is one of the main drivers of road accidents in the out-of-town way. In this study, we tried to investigate the factors affecting speed selection by drivers by recording speed and completing a questionnaire on two-way vehicles in two-way axis of Zanjan province. For this purpose, various variables have been defined in five groups, variables related to driver, vehicle, road and environment, travel and occupants, and their data have been gathered. In order to analyze the data, a logistic regression model has been used that calculates the probability of the driver's choice of speed. The results of this study showed that with the increase in the age of drivers, the probability of choosing their unauthorized speed is reduced, and, in spite of decreasing the age of drivers, the probability of choosing an unauthorized speed increases. The results of the model also show that by increasing the engine volume, the drivers have been added the possibility of unauthorized speed selection. The results of the model show that the probability of committing a violation of speed in roads with speeds of 60 and 80 km / h is more than speeds of 95 km / h.

The vulnerability of non-biodegradable wastes and their exploiting to reduce contamination of environment has been abundantly attracted the engineers’ attention. In addition, the abrasion resistance of concrete pavement is one of the prominent factors of durability causing non-affordable maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Thus, utilizing plastic wastes either as aggregate replacement or fiber is considered as an eco-friendly idea. Recently, numerous studies have been carried out to investigate the effects of PET (with different shapes and sizes) on mechanical properties and durability characteristics of concrete. In the present research, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% and 30% by volume fraction of natural river sand in concrete mixes were replaced with recycled PET and specifications of fresh and hardened concrete so as to evaluate mechanical properties and abrasion resistance of concrete specimens. The obtained results revealed that replacing recycled PET aggregates with natural sand decreases slump and fresh density of concrete. Nevertheless, the mechanical properties were degraded as PET content increased. Furthermore, the results that replacing up to 30 percent of PET resulted in reducing compressive, splitting tensile and flexural strength, respectively, 36, 42 and 22 percent compared to control sample. In addition, replacing fine recycled PET improved the abrasion resistance of concrete. According to criteria implied by standards, the experimental results admitted that replacing 20% of fine recycled PET resulted in the most possible mechanical behavior and abrasion resistance.

In recent years, the use of metal melting slag, one of the waste and unused the metal melting plants, has been considered as an alternative to parts or all rock materials in different layers of metal. The aim of this study was to investigate the use of different percentages of steel slag as a percentage of its coarse rock material in mixing (0 %, 50 % and 100 % of slag in replacement of coarse aggregate material). Also, in order to investigate the effect of polypropylene fiber on roller containing slag, different percentages were used 1 / 0 and 0.3 % respectively. To achieve this goal, 12 mix design schemes were designed for 7 and 28 days of design and for testing each roller - roller plot (6 samples for compressive strength of 7 and 28 days, 3 samples were made for 28 - day compressive strength and 3 samples for special weight and 28 - day water absorption. the results of the experiment show that the pressure resistance of the roller - roller in 28 days by replacing the slag in coarse aggregate was decreased by 50 and 100 per cent, respectively, by about 9 and 21 %, respectively. the addition of fibers by 0.2 % in the compressive strength of specimens, followed by adding 3 / 3 per cent of the compressive strength fibers. also, tensile strength of samples at the age of 28 decreased by replacing the aggregates of convertor slag by 50 and 100 per cent, respectively, by % and 3 % respectively. the addition of fibers by 0.2 % % increased the tensile strength of specimens, and decreased tensile strength by adding 3.5 % of the tensile strength fibers. in the case, the weight of the specimens was increased by 50 % and 11 % by replacing the slag by 50 % and 100 %. while the addition of fibers leads to weight loss of specimens. The results of water absorption showed that all roller - roller samples at 28 days had much water absorption compared to the sample. The absorption of the specimens increases with the increase in the amount of slag convertor substituted by natural materials. For samples with higher values of convertor slag, an increasing trend is found to be found. Mix design specimens containing 100 % of the slag and 0 / 3 % of fibers in 28 days with water absorption of 48.7 % have the highest water absorption of in comparison to control mixture.

Today, the aviation industry plays a significant role in relations between different countries of the world, demonstrating the economic and military power and extending essentials of a country. Improving the performance of the aviation industry by analyzing big data available using intelligent methods, increases the efficiency of this system. According to the previous studies, despite the importance of this industry and large amount of data, there has not been adequate attention using data-based methods in past studies in order to discover knowledge in this industry. The process mining is one of these intelligent methods that allows automatically obtaining information from event log data and analyzing system processes. This research focuses on the implementation of the process discovery method with control-flow and time pesrpective using Prom software to investigate intelligent prediction of occurrence time of key events in the field of aviation system. In this research, after extracting the initial flight data from Zagros Airlines and converting them to the event log, the flights event log is given to the Prom software and are extracted the transition system model and time prediction of key flight events. Some innovations of this research include using time prediction method of the process mining approach on the actual data, time prediction and analyse the time behavior of the key events of future flights dynamically based on the past behavior of each flight. By using the results of this study, waiting time which prevents from passengers’ congestion is reduced and because of high satisfaction of passengers with up-to-date flights information, demand for aviation system is increased. It also helps to create intelligent scheduling in the aviation system and improves the scheduling of airport facilities.

In this research, Hub location problem was studied in an incomplete network with a Hierarchical structure. Allocation of nodes to the hub is single. Hub nodes and communication paths are capacitated. First objective function is as “Mini Max” type that used to minimize the maximum transfer time in the network. Second objective function is as “Mini Sum” type that considered to minimize the total transfer cost in the network. Eventually multi objective hub location problem is modeled with hierarchical structure, single assignment and capacitated using mixed integer programing. For numerical survey of the model, in the first the problem was solved in small size to be checked feasibility of model with GAMZ software and LP-Metric method. Due to the NP-Hard of problem, to solve the problem in medium and large size used Meta-heuristic methods. In this study used two Meta heuristic method as Noun-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (II) and multi-objective Aunt Lion optimizer algorithms. To compare the results used comparative criteria as the number of Pareto answers, maximum spread index, spacing metric and CPU time. Comparison of the results was done with a statistical method. Results showed Multi-objective Aunt Lion optimizer algorithm produced solution with more dispersion than Noun-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (II). In return Noun-dominated sorting genetic algorithm had faster solving speed than Multi-objective Aunt Lion optimizer algorithm.

The bus transport system is one of the most important public transportation systems. Improvement of this system has a significant effect on performance and increase the efficiency of cities’ transportation systems and consequently it will have more satisfaction and attraction for passengers. One of the key issues in this field is the optimal allocation in number of vehicles, which is known as the transport timetable. Specifically, allocating each of these devices to each line more than needed will cause excess capacity for that line and conversely, allocation less than needed leads to passenger discontent as a service receiver. Therefore, the main purpose of the research is to estimate the precise and optimal number of vehicles and the number of bus commuting in each line, each time and any kind of day. In this research, mathematical optimization models are used to solve this problem. The proposed model is an integer programming model. Background of the research, interview with the practitioners, bus operating company directors and public transport experts were used for making the model. In order to evaluate the designed model, in addition to solving a few small examples, a pilot experiment was carried out on set of lines of the Azadi terminal of Mashhad Bus Network. The model results were compared with the actual values. The results of the responses obtained from the model showed that with the number of vehicles less than the actual number of buses in the days under investigation, all the constraints of the system, especially demand, are provided.

Ports as an essential and vital infrastructure has important role in the marine transport systems. The possibility that port benefits spread to the larger area, often larger than the port region, raises different research questions: the main one is related to measuring possible spillover effects in the neighboring regions. Therefore, the present study aims to measure the ports spillover effects on economic growth in Iran by a spatial econometric analysis. The data used in this study cover the 23 non- coastal provinces and 7 coastal provinces during the period from 2005 to 2014. The results show that during the studied period, the performance of ports has positive effect on the production of coastal provinces of Iran, but the effect of spillover is negative. In other words, an increase in the port's performance level in one area will reduce the GDP of other areas.

Walking is a prominent place in the urban transport system, as a significant part of intra-city trips takes place on foot. Increasing motor vehicles, resulting in traffic congestion, air pollution, rising fuel prices, as well as the increasing attention of people to their health, the ways of transport and motor vehicles, especially walking, have become more popular than ever before. On the other hand, due to these issues, the lack of attention to the pedestrian safety category has led to numerous road accidents over the past years. Safety analysis of paths is commonly used, often with accident statistics data, and the use of statistical models to determine accidental and insecure points. Several reasons indicate that this method is not a suitable tool for evaluating safety. Therefore, the use of alternative methods or complementary methods for non-accidental data to improve traffic safety has been considered by researchers in traffic science. One of the most important methods is the use of traffic interaction indicators. . In the present study, we tried to assess the safety of pedestrians in uncontrolled intersections in urban areas by using neural network method and alternative method based on non-random data. At first, by using the neural network method, factors affecting the occurrence of an interaction between cars and pedestrians were determined and finally, by using Post Encroachment Time (PET) and Time-To-Collision (TTC) indicators of critical thresholds the probability of automobile-pedestrian interactions in uncontrolled intersections of the city was determined.

One of the problems with the instantaneous speed control systems is that the speed of passing cars is only checked at certain points of the track and drivers' behavior is not at all possible. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the effect of speed reduction by installing average speed cameras in rural roads. In this study, using the statistical models of the hypothesis testing and the time series, the rate of vehicle speed decrease was compared to the non-camera mode and the speed changes after installing and setting up average speed cameras have been investigated. The studied roadways have average speed cameras, and the information and timing of these cameras have been received from the Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization. In general, the average speed of vehicles before the installation of cameras was 89.66 kilometer per hour and after the installation of cameras was 84.08, which shows a decrease of 58.5 kilometer per hour. The mean percentage of average reduction was 25.5 percent which indicates an acceptable level. According to the results of the test, at the 95 percent confidence level, in the six axes of the nine axes examined, the average vehicle speed decreased significantly. This does not mean that there were no decrease in other axes, but that speed was not significantly reduced. On the whole, the effect of average speed cameras on vehicle speed reduction on roadways with lower traffic volume was higher than that of high-volume roads.

One of the fundamental demands of individuals in today's societies is undoubtedly improving the quality of public transportation services. In order to compete in this context, passenger transport companies need to identify the factors affecting passengers’ satisfaction and the services quality criteria based on their point of view and while evaluating their own situation, they should take action to improve their status and obtain passengers’ satisfaction. The aim of the present study is to prioritize passenger transport companies using a hybrid approach of Analytical Network Process (ANP) and Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS). For this purpose, at first 35 relevant criteria were identified through a review on literature and existing research background. Then, by distributing the questionnaires among the managers and experts of cooperatives of Gilan province, 19 important factors were determined and classified into 6 main categories. In the next step, the relationships between the factors were identified according to experts’ opinions. Then, using ANP, the weights of the factors were calculated and their significances were determined; and finally, ARAS method was used to rank active bus companies in Rasht County. The results show that services criteria and quality assurance, cost and reliability are more important factors. Responding to customer needs and complaints, ticket prices, and staff’s respect for customers were identified as the most important sub-criteria. The study also showed that the top companies in terms of quality of services are Royal Safar Iranian, Sir-o-safar, and Hamsafar Rah-e Baran, respectively.

This study was prepared to identify and rank all factors contributing to the occurrence of marine accidents of vessels with gross tonnage less than 500 (Khuzestan waterways study) for the first time. The findings of this research can be used to adoption effective practical measures to improve the safety level of vessels with gross tonnage of less than 500 which traffic in Khuzestan waters. In this study, in addition to library and documentary study, a questionnaire was used to collect data. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis and SPSS and Expert choice statistical software were used for data processing. Based on the analysis and results, human factors, environmental factors, software factors and hardware factors influence the occurrence of vessels with gross tonnage less than 500 in Khuzestan waterways, of which a human factor with a final weight of 0.534 is the highest priority than other factors. Also among sub-factors, defect and lack of training of ship personnel among human sub-factors, factor of natural channel characteristics (severe flow of water, depth and width) among sub-environmental factors, lack of proper implementation of existing technical and safety guidelines among the Software factors and maintenance factors of hull and equipment of vessels among the hardware factors are the first priority over other sub factors.