فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 44 (پاییز 1400)

One of the most important topics in economics is the study of utility and social welfare. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to derive the utility function and social welfare function of the provinces of Iran during 1380-1396. For this purpose, the regional utility function is used to extract the utility of the provinces. To calculate these functions, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel data(pmg/ARDL) was used in Eviews 9 and Excel software. Then, the Bergson-Samuelson welfare function, which is computed as a sum of utility, was used to calculate the social welfare function. Finally, beta convergence method was used to investigate welfare convergence between provinces of the country. The results of the extraction of utility and social welfare function show that social welfare has been in steady growth in the period 1380-1386. After a slight decline in 1387, it increases again. In 1392, this growth stops and increases again in 1394 and 1395. This increase continues until 1394 and declines during the years of 1395 and 1396. Also, the results of beta convergence show that the provinces such as Chaharmahal-e-Bakhtiari, Qazvin, Lorestan and Kurdistan have the highest convergence rate, considering the Solow-Swan hypothesis, they are less welfare than other provinces and provinces such as Tehran, Isfahan, Hamedan and Markazi, which have lower convergence rates, have higher levels of welfare. While, the convergence rate for the country is -0.1718. This means that the entire provinces, on average, are moving toward an average welfare of 17.18% annually. Also, since the beta convergence coefficient for provinces and countries is between zero and negative one, the existence of convergence in provinces and countries is confirmed.

the purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the direction of causality between financial development, trade liberalization and economic growth in 130 countries including Iran between 2000 and 2017. Cointegration approach, panel vector error correction (PVECM) and Toda-Yamamoto-Dolado-Lutkepohl causality tests (TYDL) are used in this paper to investigate short - term and long-term causal factors. In order to create the Composite Financial Development index, we used the Principal Components method to present a novel approach. The results indicate that there is a long-term and strong bi - directional causality between all variables in high - income countries and there is a long-term causality in financial development and trade liberalization in form of reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers to economic growth in all groups. We also found that in high income countries, there is a short-term and strong causality in financial development to economic growth. As to study findings, the development of capital markets, the enhancement of their depth and efficiency, and the development of trade liberalization policies and stategies to increade economic growth in long run, recommended for middle income and low income countries. As a middle - income country, economic growth has always been an important objective in Iran. Thus , it seems necessary for country to deepen financial markets and institutions and increase the efficiency of financial markets to benefite from positive long- term effects of financial development on economic growth.

The effectiveness of monetary policy is one of the most challenges of monetary authorities. It depends on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy authorities and private sector behavior. Fiscal authority may or may not respect its intertemporal budget balance. Private agent's behavior in forecasting future values of macroeconomic variables is of the most importance. In standard monetary policy models, it is assumed that the fiscal authority tries to settle its outstanding debt. It is also assumed that, the economic agents forecast the future values of macroeconomic variables with rational expectations. Some studies about fiscal structure of the governments have shown that governments face with sustained budget deficit or accumulating outstanding debt. In this respect, many studies have investigated monetary policy in the context of fiscal authority which is not willing or not able to respect its intertemporal budget balance. At the same time many studies and evidences have shown that expectation formation of economic agents departs from rational expectations and different groups of agents may use different procedures to forecast future values of macroeconomic variables. This paper, taking into account these issues, drives the appropriate monetary rule under heterogeneous expectations and fiscal dominance in Iran. For this purpose, a closed economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two types of expectations: forward looking rational and backward looking adaptive expectations is used. Simulation results show that a fiscal shock increases production, inflation, investment and decreases consumption. Money growth rate shock increases production, inflation and consumption and decreases investment. Comparing the effects of two shocks shows that the effects of fiscal shock on variables is greater than the effect of monetary shock. It is also shown that increasing the share of non-rational agents increases the volatility of inflation expectations and output gap in response to fiscal and monetary shocks. This shows the importance of anchoring expectations in monetary policy design.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of price shocks on selected energy carriers in household consumption basket and firm production functions (both supply and demand side of economy) simultaneously on macroeconomic of Iran. The stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model consisting of households, firms, foreign trade and government and central banks has been calibrated and simulated for the Iranian economy. The data related to the estimation of the research model were seasonally available for the period 1996-2006. The final model equations were linearized around the stable state using linearized stochastic equations by the method of Uhlig (1999: 40) as a spatially-state model in the Matlab programming environment. The results of the simulation and analysis of the model's immediate reaction functions show that all price shocks in selected energy carriers, while increasing production costs and creating inflationary conditions, reduce total consumption, total investment and total demand, and after reducing the production of non-oil products and total production, employment decreases. The results of variance analysis also show that most of the changes in employment (compared to production) are due to diesel fuel and electric shocks, respectively, so that 1,08 percent of employment changes (compared to non-oil production), due to diesel fuel shock and 1,01 percent due to electric shock. The severity of the adverse effects created at the employment level during the first 10 periods following the energy price shocks is significant, indicating the need to pay special attention to the unemployment rate when the subsidy targeting law is fully implemented.

Consideration of regional systems as a way of managing national security barriers along with peaceful economic relations are achieved in the regionalization process. One of these agreements is the Eurasian Economic Union. The present study inspects the potential impact of the trade agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union on export sectors of industry and agriculture using the gravity model over 2001-2018.The results demonstrate the positive effect of the mean variables of GDP and FDI on exports from Iran to Eurasia in industry and agriculture and indicate the negative effect of the variables on product deriving from multiplication of population, tariff rate and real exchange rate with exports. The elimination of trade tariffs between Iran and Eurasia can benefit various sectors of Iran's economy, and this benefit is further enhanced when the industry sector tariff is removed.Economic policymakers should consider the economic implications of this agreement for success. If the agricultural sector is faced with import restrictions, it will most likely have negative effects and this option could be deemed as an inappropriate policy in agreement with the Eurasia. The creation of a joint financial mechanism for internal exchanges between Iran and the Eurasia, the formation of a database of Member States' traders for Iranian economic activists, the issuance of business visas among Member States and the establishment of a Eurasian Joint Chamber could enhance Iran's trade with Eurasia in the sector and it can be beneficial to exporting industry and agriculture.

one of the indicators that is currently considered in determining the level of development of a country is the amount of electricity consumption and its applications.Providing the needs of the industrial sector for energy,especially electricity, is undeniable and very important and is very effective in the process of growth, development and economic stability.In this study,using time series data and aggregate techniques in econometrics, especially dynamic auto regressive distributed lag models (ARDL) and error correction mechanism (ECM), long-term and short-term relationships of electricity demand model of the industrial sector are estimated. Based on the obtained results,The price elasticity of demand in the industrial sector is equal to 0.453 and it indicates that with a one percent increase in the price of electricity,the amount of demand decreases by 0.453 percent.Therefore, electricity is a low-elastic commodity, This means that the industrial sector is dependent on electricity and other energies cannot be a suitable alternative to it.The results show that all coefficients are significant at the levels of 5 and 10 percent. Also, the results show that the demand for electricity has an important role in the production of the industrial sector and ultimately the country's GDP, so that an increase of 1 unit (ten thousand kilowatt hours) in electricity consumption in the industrial sector can increase GDP by about 23,660 dollars.Keywords: Electricity Demand of Industrial Sector, Price of Energy Carriers, ARDL.

Social welfare is one of the policymakers’ main challenges in different societies, and as financing government expenditures is closely related to social welfare, this issue can be very important. Considering welfare cost of consumption and inflation taxation, the government must implicit tax rates on consumption and inflation to finance budget deficit that may minimize the marginal cost of social welfare. This study calculates optimal tax rates on consumption and inflation using the optimal financing model Mankiw. At first, the research calculates price and income elasticity of eight groups of commodities based on the linear expenditure system (LES) and seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) from 1996 to 2016 to calculate the social welfare cost of consumption tax. And then a calibration method calculates the optimal consumption tax rates model on the commodity groups and the optimal inflation rates using the genetic algorithm method. The research shows that the optimal tax rate is lower on commodity groups at a lower price and income elasticity. The optimal tax rate on the essential and normal goods groups is reduced by increasing loss distribution approach, and that is increased on the luxury goods groups and there is also an increase in the scatter of the optimal tax rates. However, multi-rate tax system is approved at all levels of escape rates for parameters. The optimal tax rate is also close to -0/1 which supports Friedman’s optimal rule.

The amount of non-performing loans is one the indicators for assesssing banks credit risk and its high values is a sign of unhealthy of banking system. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of economic growth on NPLs by applying new nonparametric and robust approaches in time series analysis. For this purpose, an econometric model is designed on factors affecting NPL which includes three variables related to economic growth and a variable which is domestic credits. Quarterly data were used between the first quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2018 which have been gathered from the website of the Iran’s Ministry of Economy Affairs and Finance. Based on nonparametric approaches considered for analysing data, sub-space-based unit root test was performed to evaluate the stability of series and simple non-parametric regression model was performed for modelling propuses. In this paper, the relationships between variables were estimated using second-order Gaussian kernel in multivariate non-parametric regression. According to the results of the empirical analysis in Iran, there is a causal relationship between the non-performing loans and the total amount of loans of Iranian private banking sector. The SSA causality test shows that this relationship is evident. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at fixed prices, Public Sector Expenditure (PS) and Private Sector Expenditure (PSE), Domestic Credit Volume (CV) are the most important subdivisions of economic growth. According to the results, public sector expenditure has an opposite effect and the increase in credit volume has a direct effect on increasing NPL.