نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 44 (زمستان 1399)

Interest rate defense is defined as a defense policy in the face of currency shocks and in order to prevent the outflow of deposits from the banking system, and to prevent financial instability and banking crisis. With the expansion of economic sanctions in the late 2010s, the exchange rate rose sharply, and as a result, the monetary authority increased bank interest rates to prevent the phenomenon of bank run. In this study, the effect of interest rate protection on the financial stability of private and public banks and the total banking system is analyzed. Variables affecting financial stability are divided into two groups of internal and external banks variables. The model is estimated based on the three-stage least squares method based on data from 2001-2019. The results of the study show that although the increase in banks rates in the occurrence of currency shocks has positively affected the financial stability of all banks and private banks but had no effect on state-owned banks. However, this policy is one of the reasons for the increase in non-current receivables in the banking system due to the effect of currency shocks on external bank variables such as inflation and increasing financing costs in economy.

Trade is crucial to international interaction, and spreading fluctuations among countries. Regarding the importance of this issue for Iran, appropriate trading partners in machinery and transport equipment in import sector are examined using network theory. Therefore, by constructing a composite index based on the structural network measures, potential trading partners for Iran are introduced. The potential trading partners' characteristics are twofold. First, the proposed trading partners can improve Iran's structural position in the international trade network. Second, the potential substitutes for current trading partners are beneficial in case current trading partners alleviate or stop their trade relations with Iran. Therefore, substituting or strengthening trade links with this group of potential trading partners can lead to an insignificant change in Iran's structural position in the international trade network. Results show that half of current major trading partners of Iran are among powerful trading partners in the international trade network with high structural characteristics. Also, potential trading partners and their substitutes are introduced using the composite index. Results imply that strengthening trade links with China, Republic of Korea, Germany, France, and Japan can enhance Iran's structural position in the trade network. Moreover, forming and consolidation of the trade linkages with the potential alternatives for UAE, Russia, Italy, Turkey, and India could lead to preservation of Iran's structural status throughout the international trade network. Trading with other potential substitutes could maintain Iran's structural position in trade networks which is more pronounced in case of any disruptions.

Freight or transit of goods is one of the most profitable commercial services in the world, especially for countries that are geographically located in the international transit routes. Iran's natural and geographical location can be considered as the most strategic transit routes for Afghanistan and East CIS countries. This landlocked region requires the transit of goods through Iranian ports to access international waters, and this could create the potential for huge cargo transportation demand for Iran. In this paper, based on the gravity model of international trade, an estimate of the potential freight demand of this region is obtained from the Iranian transportation system, especially maritime transport through Chabahar port, and then the cargo potential of this region is estimated for the foreseeable future. The specified model has been estimated by generalized least squares method using the panel data with fixed effects in 30 sections and the period 2010 to 2018 biennially. The results show that the prospect of cargo demand of this region in 2022 is more than 2 trillion $.

Preferential trade agreements with major trade partners can play an important role in maintaining and deepening of current trade. The decision to invest is one of the key decisions in the field of economics and business. Turkey is one of Iran's important trading partners. This can lead to an increase in investment in Iran in order to attract foreign investors from Turkey to Iran, as well as lower the cost of imported inputs for domestic investors. This is especially important in the case of Iran. The present study intends to examine the effects of the trade agreement between Iran and Turkey (that is one of Iran's most important trading partners) on the amount of investment in agriculture, industry, and services since 2011- 2025 in Iran, so a preferential trade scenario for Iran is simulated according to the agreement. Preferential trade agreement between Iran and Turkey will facilitate trade relations, and this can lead to increased investment in Iran in order to attract foreign investors from Turkey, as well as lower the cost of imported inputs of domestic investors. The result of the agreement shows an increase in investment, and it is predicted that this investment will be made more in the production of industrial goods.

Since the energy consumption has increased globally, many countries are searching to conduct a procedure for balancing between the energy consumption and its environmental impact. Therefore, there has been plenty of research to discover new strategies for decreasing carbon emission and highlighting the influential factors. This study has analyzed the carbon emission measures in several different sectors using the input-output approach. Also, the study has measured the effect of carbon emission on the total intensity by calculating the structural intensity and domestic energy consumption. The data is extracted from social matrix of Iran`s economy in 2011 and 2014. The findings indicate that the gas emission rate differs in different sectors and as a result the emission intensity is also different. In general, the emission intensity from 2014 has increased compared to 2011 though the emission intensity in agriculture sector has surged. Also, the total national AEI has increased as a result of structural effect and final demand for it. In other words, structural effect and final demand has influenced in the surge of carbon emission.

Although the amount of gold reserves determines the strength of the national currency in the past, today, more production and trade in the world's market is the determinant of the national currency strength, in the meantime, the improvement of national efficiency and competitiveness by helping to increase the share of global production and trade will increase the power of the national currency. In this respect, the present study attempts to investigate the effect of factors of efficiency, including goods market efficiency, market size, and technical readiness as the key variables and higher education and training, labor market efficiency, and financial market development as controlling variables on the strength of the national currency in two groups of selected countries (efficiency-driven stage and innovation-driven stage) from 2007 to 2018. To accomplish this, the model is estimated using panel data and a generalized method of moments by splitting two groups of selected countries. The results show that the effect of the crucial variables of goods market efficiency, market size, and technical readiness on the strength of the national currency in both the selected countries is positive. Also, the effect of control variables of higher education and training, labor market efficiency, and financial market development on the strength of the national currency in both groups of selected countries is positive. Of course, except for higher education and training, the coefficient of all variables in countries of the efficiency-driven stage is greater than the countries of the innovation-driven stage.

Sustainable economic growth and development in countries is the result of interaction and optimal use of influential economic, social, and political factors according to the reality of those countries. Meanwhile, human capital as the most important factor of economic growth and development of countries, not only has a direct effect on production, but also affects other factors of production and it is also affected by them. Therefore, the present study tries to investigate the interaction effects between human capital and capital accumulation in selected countries of the MENA region where the revenue from natural resources is the most important feature of these countries. For this goal, the study uses the system of simultaneous equations approach for the period 1996-2019. The results show that human capital and capital accumulation in the studied countries have a positive and reciprocal effect on each other and increasing inflation as one of the most important macroeconomic variables through the expansion of economic uncertainty reduces capital accumulation. Also, revenues from the sale of natural resources, which is one of the prominent features in the studied countries, have a negative effect on the accumulation of capital and human capital. Finally, non-oil GDP per capita has a positive effect on human capital in the studied countries.