مجله تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی
سال سیزدهم شماره 4 (زمستان 1400)

Since the agriculture industry brings the minimum exchange earnings and produces alternative products, it serves as the most substantial way to grow and develop in non-oil products export. In this way, the agriculture industry reduces oil dependence. According to economic theories, a high-volume capital in a country can provide the field for higher economic growth, development, and production. Nevertheless, Iran has not been a success story in using its oil resources to achieve growth and development. Dependent on the Iranian economy on oil can be mentioned as one of the main reasons for the failure.

The extant paper aims to find whether oil is a curse for Iran's economy since higher oil revenues in Iran harm the economy, particularly the agriculture sector. On the other hand, this study was conducted to find the impact rate of oil revenues on economic efficiency, especially in the agriculture sector. In this research, the direction of the mentioned effect was examined by using a nonlinear NRDL model for the period 1981-2018. The estimated relations indicated the positive

impact of asymmetric effects of positive oil revenues, government facilities given by banks to the agriculture sector, asymmetric effects of the positive exchange rate, capital, and labor, as well as the negative association between asymmetric effects of negative oil revenues, inflation, asymmetric effects of negative exchange rate, agriculture growth rate on Iran' economy. According to the obtained results, the capital volume of the agriculture sector (76/0) and positive oil revenues (59/0) had the highest effect on the growth rate of agriculture within the long-term period.

However, it must be mentioned that the agriculture sector and macroeconomics depend on oil revenues in Iran. In other words, an increase in oil revenues will lead to a rise in government earnings because of the severe dependence of Iran's economy on oil revenues. However, the increased oil revenues have not been managed well in Iran, but they have been spent on short-run expenditures causing inflation and lower growth of the agriculture sector. Therefore, economic growth of the agriculture sector will be provided by creating an economic security and safe environment for investment, expanding and diversifying fiscal markets and institutes, moving towards the open economy, using foreign investment, changing capital market rules, creating transparency and stability, and increasing saving and investment.

Regarding the importance of environmental issues, identification of the factors affecting environmental pollution has been considered more than ever. The present study examines the effects of electricity consumption, financial development, foreign direct investment and economic growth on carbon emissions in Iran over the years 1970-2016.

For this purpose, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method was used. To verify the Stationary, Augmented Dickey Fuller, Zivot – Andrews and Lee, Strazicich tests were used. Also, to investigate co-integration, Gregory-Hansen test were used.

The results of the ARDL model estimation with presence of Structural Break show, electricity consumption and economic growth has a positive effect on carbon emissions. And with a one percent increase, carbon emissions increased by 0.58% and 0.05%, respectively. The relationship between financial development and carbon emissions is negative, with a one-percent increase in financial development, carbon emissions will fall by 0.09 percent. The relation between foreign direct investment and carbon emissions is positive, which shows that the Pollution haven hypothesis has been approved in Iran and with a one percent increase in foreign direct investment, carbon emissions will increase by 0.01 percent.

Based on the results, and given that Iran is considered as a renewable resource, except for the rich countries, it is essential that, with a streamlined plan, both the release of budget and GDP from the trap of oil revenues, towards the replacement of renewables In order to maintain energy resources, environmental pollution will also decrease. It is also imperative that the government and legislators in Iran seek to raise funds for the reconstruction of the country's manufacturing sector, especially the industry and the use of environmentally friendly technologies.

Economic resilience is one of the important components of the resistance economy. Especially in terms of economic sanctions and given the importance of the agricultural sector in food security, the economic resilience of this sector becomes more important. The purpose of this study is to investigate the economic resilience of Iran's agricultural sector during the years 2000-2015.

For this purpose, the indicators of the concentration of export markets, export concentration, openness of the economy, output ratio of agricultural sector to intermediate consumption, income instability of agricultural sector, self-sufficiency coefficient, human development index and good governance indicators were used. To generate the combined index of economic viability of agricultural sector, methods of TOPSIS, taxonomy, weight taxonomy and weighted average were used and their results were compared by using coefficient of variation, correlation coefficient and Spearman-Shannon index.

Based on the results, the economic Resilience of the agricultural sector has decreased during the study period and the index of instability of agricultural income, export concentration, corruption control and market efficiency are most important in determining the economic resilience of this sector.

Therefore, risk management methods such as agricultural income diversification, agricultural insurance, the diversification of export targets, the expansion of target markets, diversification into commodity exports, stability of policies and macroeconomic stability should be further emphasized on the agenda of policy makers in this sector.

To date, researches have presented numerous models for measuring environmental efficiency; however, reports suggested that they have not been able to consider the increasing spatial impact of certain factors affecting the environmental efficiency of agricultural products and for the most part the results are not logical.

In this study, first the environmental efficiency of rapeseed in designated provinces of Iran during the years 2011 to 2016 was measured and to evaluate the environmental efficiency of the specific measurement model was used. Then, in this study, using a Spatial Durbin Model, the factors affecting the environmental efficiency of rapeseed farmers (due to the utilization of water resources and other climatic aspects) in certain provinces of Iran have been investigated.

The results of this study showed that the average environmental efficiency of the entire country is about 0.73 during the mentioned period, which has increased with the relative improvement of environmental efficiency each year and also has spatial spillover effects. Direct and indirect effects indicate that domestic water consumption, degree of openness, technological progress in agriculture and industrial structure have a significant impact on the environmental efficiency of Iranian rapeseed growers.

In this regard, the government and citizens should focus on solutions such as reducing pollution, saving domestic water consumption and transforming the industrial structure. In addition, managers should consider the spatial effects of these factors when designing government policies.

The agricultural sector and its related activities have certain characteristics, which expose it to numerous unforeseen risks and damages, resulting in multiple losses and problems. Therefore, identifying and evaluating these risks and damages can help farmers make the right decisions. The purpose of the present study is to identify and evaluate melon crop production risks, and to prepare risk profiles for this crop.

Two criteria of frequency of occurrence and extent of risk, and finally risk matrix were used to assess the damage of each production risks. The sample size was determined based on simple random sampling procedure and the data were collected through face-to-face interviews with 50 melon farmers in Mashhad in 2019.

Study findings suggest that the largest risk area in terms of risk frequency and risk effect is assigned to the fifth area including drought risk, pests, various illnesses, birds and melon fly, following by the first area with 4 risks and the second and third areas with 1 risk.

We highly recommend the use of risk profiles to design patterns and insurance coverage which fits various risks. As a result, losses of insurance fund will mitigate and major and important risks in melon production will be covered, and thus, insurance demand will increase.

In this study first, a suitable economic planning model for agricultural water resources management in Kerman province was presented. Then the potential impacts of water supply policy plans on its agricultural sub-sector were evaluated.

In the implementation section, a three-stage calibration of a comprehensive economic model based on the positively mathematical programming (PMP) method and the maximum entropy (ME) approach were used. The required data and information are for years 2017-2018 that documentary and regional studies approach (regions A, B and C in master plan of provincial cropping pattern) through the organization of agriculture and water resources management in Kerman province were collected.

The results show that with implementation of supply-side policies, cropping patterns are developing towards acreage of low water and cereal products in different areas of Kerman province and products such as onions, cotton and vegetables have the largest reduction in cropping pattern. Under these conditions, farmers pay about one-third of the real value of agricultural water inputs in the form of water extraction and transportation costs and farmers southern Kerman province have the lowest level price elasticity of water demand (0.175). Corn and potatoes respectively, by maintaining and sustaining acreage in A (Agriculture in dry conditions) and C (agriculture in tropical conditions) regions provide optimal patterns to supply needs in these region and adjacent region.

Therefore, under conditions of water supply reduction policy the suggested patterns in the northern regions of Kerman province (A) are better optimal than other regions patterns (B and C).

Understanding the bottlenecks and problems of agricultural development in rural communities is the first step in the rural development process. Most of the new ideas about land consolidation have generally been raised but it has not been successful. In this regard, this study was conducted with the aim of overcoming the obstacles of agricultural land integration in Iran based on the viewpoint of experts based on multi criteria decision.

The statistical population of the study consisted of 25 faculty members and experts who were knowledgeable about land management and micro scattering in different parts of Iran. To examine the barriers to integration of the 43 identified barriers in six main formats (economic, social and cultural, agronomic and ecological, educational and professional, political and legal, technical and infrastructure) based on four index, agricultural development, Priority, self-sufficiency, poverty alleviation and food insecurity were prioritized. Weighting of the index was done based on the entropy method and prioritize barriers based on two approaches Saw and Morris.

The gap between the price received by the producer and the price paid by the consumer is referred to as the marketing margin. How decision-makers, consumers and supply chain brokers make decisions is affected by various shocks.

In this study, a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model and impact-response functions were used to investigate shocks during the period 1974-2014.

The results showed that the shock of good news and technology leads to a positive deviation in production and a negative deviation in the marketing margin of the agricultural sector. Also, price fluctuations due to news and technology shocks in the Iranian economy move in line with the cycle of recession and prosperity. Thus, news and technology shocks play an important role in the fluctuations of important economic variables. Also, the impact of the media on the marketing margin of the agricultural sector, the importance of news and transparency in the economic environment should be considered by policy makers.

news shock in general leads to a negative deviation in the marketing margin and the marketing margin of the agricultural sector in particular. Also, price fluctuations due to technological shocks in the Iranian economy move in line with the cycle of recession and news boom, because the emergence of technological shocks leads to a positive deviation of production.

Today, the effects of climate change in the short and long term are one of the most challenging issues in the world. The negative effects of climate change are more severe in countries with drier climates and lower incomes. Accordingly, this article aims to investigate the consequences of climate change and its relationship with rent in case of rainfed wheat crop.

To investigate the presence of a nonlinear relationship between climate change and rainfed wheat rent, using agricultural information during 2002-2017 and Ricardian approach and Panel data technique was used.

Based on the model of fixed effects, cumulative rainfall of harvest, the square of the temperature of the harvest season, autumn temperature, rainfall of autumn, the product of temperature and cumulative precipitation in June, have had a positive and significant effect on rent and product of temperature and rainfall of harvest season, June temperature and square of the temperature of harvest season had a significant negative effect on rent. Also, with increasing harvest temperature, a nonlinear relationship between temperature and rent is confirmed. With one degree increase in the temperature of the harvest season to the critical point of 36.3 degrees C, rent increases by 0.06% and with increasing temperature after this point, it will decrease.

the development of cultivars resistant to reduced rainfall and high temperatures can help prevent rent reduction. Training and leadership in all economic sub-sectors and the development of a comprehensive plan and practical action to adapt and deal with this phenomenon is necessary to reduce its adverse effects.

Utilization of aqueducts and excavations is one of the most common methods of using groundwater.Every year, level of groundwater is lowered too much and its flow rate decreases. In the study area (Khash), the water deficit is negative and the annual water level decreases and it is considered as the main source of water supply in the region. By continuing the existing conditions, one of the solutions is well extension for water supply. In this research, the optimal depth of wells was determined from 2014 to 2044, so that there was no need for rehabilitation of wells until the target year.

To study the effect of climate change, rainfall data was generated by using the LARS-WG model under the MPEH5  model and A1B scenario. its ability Confirmed with to R2, 94/94 capability .Finally, eight scenarios were defined in the WEAP model and the conditions of region were simulated and the depth of optimum floor was calculated for three wells. The results showed that if the existing conditions continue until 2044, 54.88 percent of the water stored in the aquifer will be empty and the average level of groundwater Decreases 13.67 m

The best scenario is the S8 scenario, which in this scenario the largest reduction of water stored in the aquifer occurs in 2036  and it is 10.55% of the initial volume, and the average water level is 1.67 m horizontally.

S8 scenario has the least reduction in water stored in the aquifer. In this scenario, the water stored at the end of 2044 is 93.29%, during which time, 6.71% of the stored water will be reduced. The average discharge is constant but costs increase, so discharge has no effect on reducing or increasing costs. Therefore, only the depth of floor and head pumps are the only factors that will have a greater impact on cost changes.

Short-term chicken supply (for example, over a year) lacks the flexibility to respond to demand fluctuations, which can negatively impact the welfare of consumers and producers. Thus, using various methods to identify these fluctuations can be useful in lowering or adjusting the market's price and equilibrium.

Using quantile regression and monthly data (April 2002 to March 2015), this study examined how short-term chicken price fluctuations in the Iranian market responded to related cost factors.

The results demonstrated that the confidence intervals generated by the quantile regression between quantiles 0.5th and 0.95th can indicate the range of possible price fluctuations. The economic values forecasted by this model not only help to analyze cost-effective factors and improve forecasting accuracy, but they also benefit from risk management in the agricultural market.

Among the cost factors influencing chicken prices, day-old chick (DOC) and consumer price index (CPI) had the greatest influence on price fluctuations. Coherent hatching planning based on seasonal needs, as well as price insurance for day-old chicks and a reduction in government interventions at certain times of the year, can all help to reduce price fluctuations.

Fluctuations of oil price and petroleum products have had different effects on great economic variables. One of these cases would be Dutch Disease in some countries. The aim of this paper is to study The effect of Oil Price Fluctuation on the Price of Agricultural Products.

In this paper we used the PVAR method. The statistical information of 14 oil-importing countries and 10 oil-exporting countries in the time period of 1990-2018 was used. The variables used in this study include corn price logarithm, rice price logarithm, soybeans price logarithm, wheat price logarithm, barley price logarithm, real currency rate logarithm, crude oil price logarithm, world oil production logarithm, world real economic activity logarithm and oil safety reserve logarithm.

The price reaction of these products to oil shocks, total demand and merchandise market are similar and meaningfully positive in both oil exporting and oil importing countries in terms of direction, intensity and pattern. The results indicate that the oil price shocks lead to an increase in the price of agricultural products.

It seems that to The results concluded out of price change estimations of agricultural products (corn and soybeans in particular) show that in addition to direct effect, oil shocks indirectly influence the price of agricultural products via total supply and demand shocks.

Due to the wide and interaction effects of climate with different production sectors, today climate change is mentioned as one of the most important environmental challenges of the 21st century, which has serious economic consequences. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector is more affected by climate change than other sectors and agricultural production is directly related to these changes. In this study, an attempt was made to evaluate the effect of climate change on the agricultural sector of the Khairabad River Basin.

 In this study, the WEAP simulation model was used to evaluate the effects of climate change. The WEAP model is a water resources planning tool based on the principle of water balance and shows the various sub-basins, water demand nodes, infrastructure, water flows and water transmission channels that are all interconnected. The MABIA method in WEAP software is a suitable tool to simulate the effects of climate change. This method simulates water requirements and crop performance and allows users to consider the effects of climate change and available water on crop growth.

The results noted that under the average climate scenario, the crop yields increased and their water requirement decreased. Meanwhile, the highest increase in yield is related to the barley and the shortest is the watermelon. However, with the changing temperature and precipitation conditions based on the pessimistic climate scenario, the crop yield of most products is lower than the base conditions. Also, under these circumstances, the water requirements of crops have also increased, and the change in wheat and barley water requirements are more than other products and are facing increasing water stress. The results revealed that, under the average scenario, the climatic conditions have more effect on the economic productivity index for barley, tomato, and cucumber. The change of the water productivity index for these crops was 25.19%, 24.98%, and 23.80%, respectively. In addition, the results confirmed that by applying the pessimistic climate scenario the water productivity index decrease in comparison with baseline.

The results of this study showed that by applying a pessimistic climate scenario, the economic and physical productivity of water input will decrease compared to the baseline scenario for all products.

Agriculture is considered as one of the important sectors in the process of growth and development. Hence, the study of the relationship between the value added of the agricultural sector and its determinants has been of interest to researchers and economic policy makers.

In this regard, the present study, using the Panel Vector Auto regression approach, reviewed the causal relationship between these variables in the Iranian provinces during the years 2005 -2015.

The analysis of the instantaneous response functions indicates a positive response of the energy consumption intensity to the value added shock, but the added value of the agricultural sector is negative in response to the energy consumption intensity impulse. Using variance analysis, a small amount of agricultural sector value added changes are explained by energy intensity. At the same time, value added has a greater relative contribution to energy intensity changes.

Therefore, it is recommended that investments be made to increase energy efficiency and productivity in order to make better use of energy in agriculture rather than policies based on quantitative reduction in energy consumption.