نشریه بررسی های آمار رسمی ایران
سال سی و یکم شماره 1 (پیاپی 96، بهار و تابستان 1399)

 Count data over time are observed in many application areas. Many researchers use time series patterns to analyze this data. In this paper, the poisson count time series linear models and negative binomials on this type of data with the explanatory variables are studied. The Likelihood analysis and the evaluation of count time series model based on generalized linear models are presented and investigated. Also, the data of the number of addicts referred to the addiction treatment centers in Semnan county are analyzed based on the proposed models and methods. According to the results of the model selection criteria, the negative binomial count time series model is a good fit for this data and based on it, a monthly forecast for the year 2019 was made.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the pattern of establishment of direct investment projects of Afghan citizens in Iran. Given the occurrence of international sanctions against our country and its impact on the amount of capital imported, we are witnessing changes in the composition of countries of origin of foreign direct capital in the years of sanctions, which can be considered as an alternative model and strategy. Its strength should be checked. Based on this, the approved foreign investment plans of the citizens of Afghanistan, which are licensed by the Investment and Economic and Technical Assistance Organization of Iran, using the approved capital indicators, including potential foreign capital, an approved plan and the imported capital, including the capital imported into the country. Cash or equipment or raw materials, etc., have been reviewed. The research method was quantitative content analysis. This study aims to describe objectively and qualitatively the relationships affecting Afghan investment in the provinces of Iran and the reasons for it. According to the findings of this article, out of a total of 606 foreign investment projects between 2011 and the end of 2018, 146 projects are related to Afghan investors, which have been registered in 14 provinces and more than 55% of them have been achieved so far. The frequency of Afghans living in the provinces of the country overlaps with the number of business projects created by them in these provinces and the capital of Afghans during the period, which amounted to  58 million $, entered the country in cash, which is a clear discrepancy with international statistics on capital outflows. The study also found that the ease of doing business in the provinces, as well as international sanctions during the period, had no effect on Afghan investment in Iran.

 The appropriate site selection for the establishment of industries pays attention to a wide range of criteria and combines economic and social benefits with the application of multi-criteria decision making in the environment of the environmental system. It also Ardabil province has a high investment capacity in industrial sectors in terms of site selection investment projects. This research is an applied type that is done by geographic information decision making method. In this research, topographic, geological, hydro-climatic and human criteria were used to locate suitable areas for the construction of industries, and after weighing the layers based on the ANP model, the capabilities of GIS software were used to integrate and overlap the maps. Finally, the site selection map of the industries was prepared. In this paper, the required data for site selection provided by questionnaire, answered by 30 experts, and satellite information. The results show that the most of permitted areas for industries, include the central part of Ardabil province. Totally, the research classify the areas of Ardabil province by their ability to construct industrial centers.

 With the development of new technology; its use in business processes is expanding rapidly. Accordingly, in recent years the National Statistical Organizations (NSOs), by the recommendations of international statistical organizations in the form of modernization of official statistics, have applied new sciences and technologies in statistical business processes. One of the new sciences and technologies is cognitive and behavioral sciences and technologies.  Cognitive science is the study of the mind and how processing environmental information. Official statistics are produced and used from the interaction between the human and statistical production system and it is necessary to study this interaction by laboratory and field methods. The interaction between the human and the statistical production system consists of two parts: respondents-statistical production system interaction and users- statistical production system. In the first session, statistics production, design and development questionnaire, the usability of data collection tools, methods to increase respondents' participation (behavioral insight unit) and professionalization of statisticians, and in the second session, statistics users, promotion of statistical literacy, data dissemination and accessibility, needs users, the value of statistics produced and the level of public trust are examined. In this article, based on studies conducted in national statistical organizations of other countries, the proposal of using cognitive and behavioral sciences and technologies in the Statistical Center of Iran is presented. The lab aims to conduct laboratory and field studies of human- statistical production system interaction. This proposal includes infrastructure and application fields.

 Today, foreign trade plays a key role in leading the economic growth and development programs of societies and has heterogeneous effects on the countries’ economies due to the degree of development of countries. This study focuses on developing countries and members of the D8 group and investigates the effect of trade openness on macroeconomic variables; also Iran is in this group. Therefore, the impact of trade openness on the variables such as economic growth, inflation and employment growth has been studied during 1997-2017 in D8 countries by using Vector Auto regressive (VAR) model. The main feature of the PVAR method that can be studied a large group of countries with different characteristics is the interconnected and simultaneous shocks in this model. The results of impulse response functions show that in the short run increasing of trade openness has led to increasing of out put growth, inflation and growth of employment rate. Moreover, the results show that one unit change in standard error of trade openness has no effect in the long run on three above variables. Therefore, it seems that the members of the G8 by adopting strategies such as regionalism in the process of globalization and creation of new comparative advantages, could expand the possibility of enjoying the benefits of Trade Openness.

 Employees include a main part of labour force in each country. This group is so important since a long time ago, International Labour Organization has allocated lots of its indicators such as decent work ones to the group. On the other hand, the employees in Iran are subject to the various employment laws that one of them is the labour law. According to the labour law, the Ministry of Cooperative, Labour and Social Welfare is responsible for protecting the rights of workers subjected to the labour law. Although certain employees in private sectors are considered as workers subjected to the labour law, there is not an accurate estimation of ones, because of the incomplete cover of existing administrative records and unfulfillment  the special survey of gathering information on the establishment subjected to the labour law. It has made especial labour market indicators not to be measured or inaccurately calculated (overestimated or underestimated). Then the obvious situation of labour market of target population of the Ministry of Cooperative, Labour and Social Welfare is not available programmers, policy makers and researchers. In this way, the current article aims to present the method of more accurate estimation of the mentioned workers with Labour Force Survey and National Statistical Yearbook.

 Examining the householdschr ('39')s income distribution in the provinces of the country is one of the great importance from a planning point of view. In this article, first, the income level of households was estimated by the proxy means test method, and then the ratio of households in the first two deciles was estimated based on the income level in each of the Iranchr ('39')s provinces. The results showed that in 2019, Sistan and Baluchestan province is at the top of the provinces with the highest proportion of low-income households with 57.2 percent. In contrast, this ratio in Tehran province is 3.8 percent. Also, Sistan and Baluchestan province has 3 percent of the countrychr ('39')s households, but 8.6 percent of low-income households belong to this province. In contrast, 17.7 percent of the countrychr ('39')s households live in Tehran province, but the share of low-income households in this province has been only 3.4 percent.

Recently, in most of scientific studies, the use of survival analysis is performed for examining duration time models.  One of the important applications of survival analysis is the study of recommitment crime in criminology which has not yet been considered in Iran.  So, with attention to the necessity and importance of predicting recommitment time and the analysis of duration model, in this study 209 individuals who are released from prison are followed and examined for 2 years. Chosen explanatory variables are, age, marriage status, job skill, education, kind of crime, duration of detention and the number of previous arrests. The dependent variable is the duration time till recommitment. The nonparametric methods of Kaplan-Meier and semiparametric model of Cox’s proportional hazard are applied for analysis of the data. Three different Cox’s models are used for predicting hazard of duration time till recommitment.  The results show that age, marriage status and the kind of crime are significant on the hazard of time to recommitment. In the third model we found a significant interaction effect of the kind of crime and marriage status.

Oil is now the most important and at the same time the most political economic commodity in the world today. In Iran is also considered as the most important source of political and economic power. It should also be noted that having non-renewable capitals such as oil does not necessarily mean a country's welfare. The national dependence of the oil-rich countries on oil has had a variety of consequences, including rent-seeking activities for these countries. The rentier governments' reliance on high oil revenues will ignore the different classes of people and thus have negative consequences for their economies. On the other hand, many economists believe that reforming the tax system can play a significant role in improving this situation and the transition from rentier government. One of the most important modern indicators for reforming the tax system is VAT policy. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to first examine and evaluate the strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities in the impact of tax policy in Iran in the transition from rentier government with emphasis on VAT policy and then Choose the right strategy. Statistical methods and analysis such as Friedman rank analysis and Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunitiesand Threats (SWOT) analysis were used for this purpose. The present study is of applied purpose and of descriptive-analytical method. The statistical population consists of 100 experts in the field of value added tax and the government of Rentier. Also, the sampling method is full-count. The results of the analyses show that among the environmental analysis strategies, the appropriate strategy is to transition from the rentier state to a conservative strategy (consistency of VAT policies). Therefore, this strategy involves using opportunities points to reduce the impact of weaknesses, such as: establishing procedural unity and transparency, and eliminating ambiguity in the implementation of value added tax policies, enhancing tax administration credits in line with the goals and strategies presented. And establish coordination between the tax office and the oil companies.

 In this research, based on the definitions and concepts of regional planning and national-regional databases, the 25-sector input-output table of 2011 of Kurdistan province was calculated using the location-quotient method. Then, based on the calculated table, the importance of the economic sectors of the province in terms of forward, backward linkages and elasticity has been analyzed. The results of this study show that the agriculture and livestock products sector has a greater incentive to use the intermediate inputs of other sectors and the rent and business services sector has a key role in integrating the regionchr('39')s economy. On this basis, it is suggested to pay enough attention to these sectors, which constitute the key sectors of the province.

The concept of entropy has been widely extended to other fields, including information theory and economic research. The economic financial sector of any country is the supplier of financial resources and real economic activities, which are divided into two parts: the money market and the capital market. In this paper, two criteria, approximate entropy and standard deviation have been used to measure the fluctuations of the four indicators of the Tehran Stock Exchange to check that another criterion other than the standard deviation can be used to measure the fluctuations of the stock exchange indices. The data are for the years 88 to 95. The results show that the maximum amount of data for these indicators was obtained between the years 92 to 93. After studying the reason for the fluctuation of the indicators in these years, we realized the reason for the unrealistic growth of the stock market per year. There have been 92 triples in the exchange rate in 91 and the emotional reaction of investors to the new government. The results of these two measurement criteria also indicate that in addition to the standard deviation, another method such as approximate entropy can be used to measure the fluctuations of stock indices because the results of this criterion are the same as the standard deviation.

Official population estimates can be produced using a variety of data sources and methods. These range from the direct extraction of information from continuously updated population registers to procedures for updating the status of a population enumerated previously in a periodic census. Additional sources and techniques involve the use of sample surveys or complementary sources of headcount statistics for specific age groups (e.g., immunization records, school enrollment statistics, electoral roll data). In all cases, the objective is to derive regular (typically annual) time series of the estimated size of a population classified by age and sex. Some methods and data sources are considered preferable, as they are more likely to produce internally consistent and reliable estimates. In all cases, the data and methods used to produce population estimates should be clearly documented and made readily available to data users. These metadata are essential for interpreting properly and for assessing the accuracy and reliability of population estimates and their suitability for informing policy formulation and implementation at the national level. Access to such metadata is especially important if population estimates are being used for comparative purposes at the global level. This paper offers a concise review of the methods that are commonly used by national statistical offices to produce annual time series of population estimates by age and sex. These methods depend on the availability of two essential components: an initial population count and a method of time adjustment. Both components play a crucial role in determining the overall quality of a set of population estimates. The paper formulates specific recommendations concerning best practices for the production of official population estimates. Drawing on information from various sources used by the United Nations to produce its biennial edition of global population estimates, the World Population Prospects, the paper also provides (in the appendix) an overview of data availability and current practices in the production of official population estimates around the world.