نشریه مدیریت بحران
سال یازدهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 21، بهار و تابستان 1401)

Since the expansion of urban areas, demographic changes and the existing facilities have gradually been established over the past years, there is a need for them to take a re-examination and it improve in the structure of the networks if needed. This study aims to investigate the recent facilities by building a model for locating and relocating hospital facilities in a hierarchical approach. Additionally, there are some solutions for closing, changing the capacity and opening new facilities if it needs to change in the current structure of facilities. The purposes of this study consist of maximizing the demand coverage and minimizing the structure cost. This model considers the probability occurrence of disturbances and crises, such as the lack of the availability and easy access. On the other hand, coverage radius and the capacity of each hospital facility are affected on the quality and speed of responses so that this study attempts to examine the capacity levels related to facilities and their coverage radius.This means how long any facility can cover the maximum distance of the access point. It is used of the Epsilonconstraintmethod in order to solve the proposed bi-objective model. As a result, this model is implemented asa case study in Qom Hospital facilities and it is shown that the amount of the demand coverage is increased in anacceptable level.

Movment on slopes under titles such as flows, landslides, and topplings are phenomena that occur on natural and artificial slopes in the event of the creation of appropriate conditions. Therefore, in order to counteract and eliminate the adverse effects of these phenomena, slopes must be studied in such a way that in the first stage, the occurrence of such phenomena on slopes is prevented, and in the second stage, if this occurs Phenomena can be minimized with the proper prediction of adverse effects after thinning. To do this, it is necessary to make the slopes before they are created, taking into account geological information of the region, geomechanical information of the region, the weather conditions of the region and the hydrological information of the region. In the Pahlat area, after the road spread, a slope has been created, which, after several years, the slope material began to move and almost entered the road. In this paper, this motion has been analyzed by studying the aerial photos of the region, regional weather changes and mathematical methods of slope stability analysis. In this paper, we have tried to provide a suitable method for stabilizing this slope

Large-scale natural disasters have occurred many times and led to social, economic and environmental consequences. In other words, natural disasters are a serious threat to sustainable development. Recently, sustainable modeling of disaster relief logistics has increasingly attracted attention. It is vital to take the economic, social, and environmental aspects into account in the disaster relief logistic problem to reduce the harmful effects of a disaster. The present study aims to develop a multi-objective mathematical programming model for designing a sustainable distribution network of emergency goods in disaster relief logistics. The key feature of this formulation being the fact that it explicitly considers the economic, social (deprivation cost) and environmental aspects of sustainability in the objective function. Considering the inherent uncertainty in this issue a robust fuzzy optimization approach is utilized to deal with the uncertainty. Further, multi-choice goal programming is used to solve the multi-objective model. Finally, a case study was conducted on Sari city, Mazandaran Province, to verify the model performance. In this investigation, the optimal number and location of distribution centers are determined such that the economic, social costs and the environmental pollution level are minimized, and each distribution center provides services concerning its particular capacity to a set of demand points with different types of commodities. Using the proposed model, decision-makers and managers are able to make strategic and tactical decisions with the least cost and time, and in relief planning can enhance the structure of distribution networks and inventory and reduce victims’ dissatisfaction.

Crisis management planners for natural disaster-prone areas are looking for pre- and post-hazard decisions to reduce the consequences and bring the city back to normal as soon as possible. The intra-city transportation network, as one of the most vulnerable arteries, has a strategic role in the city's reversibility. Thus, effective tools are needed to identify this role in the event of a natural disaster.In this research, a model has been developed under GIS with the help of which the performance of the urban road network can be investigated after the earthquake with the help of Bayesian algorithm. This model can determine the damage caused by a seismic event, including the collapse of buildings and adjacent bridges in any path that leads to the blockage of the route and the probability of blockage of the routes. In this method, different earthquake scenarios in which different sources of uncertainties in the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes are considered, are applied to the study area. Damage to buildings and bridges in the area, along with various seismic damage control factors of the road network, has been estimated. The performed analyses have led to the production of maps of the possibility of obstruction of the existing routes in the road network for different cases of obstruction (no obstruction, low, medium, high). These maps show the condition of the roads immediately after the earthquake. By examining the results of this research, we will found out the very complex situation of roadblocks in the city of Babol, and by conducting such analyzes and producing these maps for possible future earthquakes, the weaknesses of transportation network can easily be spotted by city managers, and authorities will be assisted to improve the network effectively while finding a suitable route for relief and help. Moreover, the results can be used in planning for the return of the city to its original state after a possible earthquake.

Drought and subsequent water deficit crisis are one of the most important natural disasters, due to their wider scope than other disasters. On the other hand, 90 percent of the population and 81.3 percent of the Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province were affected by a 7-year period until the end of March 2016. Therefore, in this study, the rate of resilience of the village's socio-ecological system against the crisis of dehydration and the problems in the province in general were evaluated. Guidelines for the evaluation of resilience were used by the Stockholm University of Sweden Resilience Society guidelines. A researcher-made questionnaire, interview, and checklist tailored to the socio-economic conditions of each local community and its ecological ecosystem were used for data collection. UCINET 6 software was used to analyze network relationships. The results showed that in the socio-ecological system of all, the main issue of water level reduction is accessible. One of the main reasons is the decrease in water intake and water loss due to lack of water storage facilities. The results of the historical line and the outline of the adaptation cycle showed that everyone's socio-ecological system is in the omega-phase (Ω) or pressure. Finally, the results showed that the most appropriate strategies for resilience management in socio-ecological systems include maintaining and enhancing the functional status of any village ecosystem, preserving and strengthening the rural structure and nature of any village, completing the village irrigation system, and Enhancing the social learning of the villagers.

In this study, a new two-level mathematical model is presented in order to design a logistics hub network in the supply chain of disasters and disasters. The leader level model uses the location of hubs and the determination of vehicles used. The objective function of this model is to minimize the cost of building hubs, transportation costs, and infrastructure costs to develop a logistics hub network. In the follow-up model, it determines the optimal routes for sending products to applicants with the aim of minimizing service delivery time. Given that solving two-tier models in the case where the follow-up model has an MIP structure, it is known as a difficult problem in research in operations and there is not always a definite solution for it, in this research an innovative algorithm based on complete counting. It is provided with high quality answers. According to the computational results, it can be observed that the developed algorithm is able to produce justified answers and of course it has an acceptable level in terms of the quality of the answers. Using the results of this research can be used as a management tool by crisis management organizations.

The study area is one of the landslide prone areas due to its geographical location and natural and geological features. In this study, we have used statistical modeling to select the most important landslide factor in the region and also the extent of involvement of each factor in landslides in Latian Basin; The information layers used include: lithology, land use, precipitation, altitude, slope, slope direction, vegetation, fault, road, dam lake and river; More than 120 landslides and landslides were identified and landslide distribution maps have been prepared for the area. To determine the relative importance and effect of effective factors and factors in landslide risk zoning, first the degree of correlation of factors was calculated by Pearson correlation coefficient, then the weighting or scoring method was used and by two-variable statistical modeling of landslides, two factors were considered. Then, by weighting or scoring method and by bivariate statistical modeling with the obtained weights, the factors were examined together to obtain the degree of involvement of these factors in landslides. Finally, we have prepared zoning maps. By field visit of the basin after zoning and recording the location of new landslides that have occurred in the basin, we have matched the location of these recorded landslides with zoned maps, the most overlap in the very sensitive and highly sensitive classes is the information map. Achieved, the results show that according to the total quality index, the information value method is more efficient than the information value method for the Latian basin.

Increasing knowledge and skills against risks by crisis management organizations and improving the ability to develop mitigation strategies is an important feature of a resilient city that requires comprehensive preparation and training. The main purpose of this study is to Analysis of the position of crisis management organizations in increasing urban resilience (Case study: Zabol city). This research is based on descriptive-analytical research method and applied purpose and also the method of collecting data and information using library and field studies. In this study, according to the position of crisis management organizations as well as previous studies and researches, (5) dimensions (economic, socio-cultural, physical-structural, managerial, environmental) were defined as dimensions of urban resilience against risks and then corresponding to each dimension, indicators have been considered, Then they are analyzed using SPSS software, Expert Choice and Fuzzy VIKOR Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model. The results of Pearson correlation coefficient showed that there is a positive and significant relationship between all resilience items and crisis management organizations in Zabol city at 99% confidence level. Findings from determining the weight of dimensions using software (Expert Choice) showed that the socio-cultural dimension with a weight of 0.345, has the highest rank. Finally, the results of the Fuzzy VIKOR model showed that the municipality has the greatest impact on increasing the resilience of Zabol city among crisis management organizations.

One of the main pillars of employment and business development in each country are the industrial units of that country. Success in building industrial units depends on mechanisms and other factors such as identifying and assessing their risk. Therefore, the model presented in the research is based on a neural network to classify and evaluate the risks of building a traverse plant with a view to technology localization. To identify the risks by Delphi method with the help of experts and university professors in 3 levels of 40 risks, 21 risks were selected. Then, according to the opinions of experts, professors and executives of the construction of the traverse factory, risk factors on the probability of occurrence and severity of risk impact were scored from 0 to 10. The risks were then grouped using Mohlonen's self-organized neural network in the MATLAB software program. The results of the neural network output show that risk factors are classified into 5 groups, the most important of which is the lack of similar experience of the contractor, which is the highest level of radar importance. A noteworthy point in this study is the importance of the risks in group 4, of which 17 risks (over 80% of the risks studied) are in this group. The risks in group 4 are between 60 to 80% in terms of importance, which can be greatly reduced by planning and studying this issue in the construction of new industrial units in the country.

The overcrowding in the school building make the importance of examining evacuation of students in the accident.  To this end, this paper  provide a simulation of human evacuation in a school sample (from school organization type maps, with 2 stories - and with 345 ) at the time of the accident. Pathfinder software was used for this purpose and the evacuation time for the above-mentioned school was 131 seconds. Since physical characteristics are considered as one of the most important factors affecting the duration of evacuation, therefore in this study two important physical factors including height and building length were evaluated.The results showed that with increasing of height of the building (3 floors and 516 users) the time increased by 66% to 217 seconds, which is unsafe and by increasing the height to 4 floors (687 users) this would increase by 135% to 307.8 seconds, which would create a dangerous situation. Installation of a separate emergency stair also reduced this time to just 249.5 seconds, which is not on the safe time. But increasing the length of the building (with 515 users) given that, unlike the height of the building, it has less impact on the density of the students (especially on the staircase) and it has a greater effect on reducing the duration of emergency evacuation (Compared to vertical expansion of the building). Therefore it is recommended that  If possible extend the building from the (horizontal) length  was considered.

Steers the flight towards modern service capabilities that increase passenger confidence as well as satisfaction with receiving better quality services.The present study has been done with a qualitative approach and content analysis method. The statistical population includes managers and experts in the aviation industry who have been selected by purposeful method and snowball and the interview has continued to the point of theoretical saturation. This is important in the eighteenth interview. Data, peer review and review by participants "and" reliability between two coders and retest "was used to confirm the reliability of the research. MAXQDA2020 software was used to analyze the data and with three coding steps (axis, main theme, Sub-theme); The pattern of IoT application in the management of Iran's aviation industry is presented.Based on the research results; The key elements in this process include "industry, government, universities, science and technology parks, and knowledge-based companies." In addition, in this study, while identifying the effects of the organizational factors process, effective infrastructural factors have been identified. Although the consequences of using IoT in the management of Iran's aviation industry, including "national consequences, organizational consequences and environmental consequences" have been studied to a good extent.