فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
پیاپی 118 (تابستان 1401)

The changing environment of agricultural activities face farmers to a variety of risks and uncertainties that influence the decisions of production, sustainability and profitability of these activities. Income risk as a result of both price and crop yield risks is one of the most important risks for farmers. In this study, optimal cropping pattern of crops as a tool for managing income risk was determined using diversification-consistent Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model based on directional-distance measures. For this purpose, the expected profit and the conditional value at risk at different probability levels were used as return and risk measures. The results showed that in the optimal cropping pattern, the share of wheat decreased and the share of more profitable crops such as medium rice grain with high-quality increased; in addition, crops such as soybeans and cotton with less profit and more risk were eliminated from the optimal cropping pattern. Based on the study results, it is suggested to use tools such as income insurance, compensating payments and a revenue stabilization fund for the development of rice cultivation in the region.

Soil and water conservation technologies are increasingly being developed as an option to create food security and reduce poverty. This study aimed at investigating the effects of the simultaneous application of water and soil conservation activities at the field level in Mond watershed basin of Iran (in 2017) as well as the effects of these technologies on wheat yield, water consumption and rural poverty. For this purpose, the Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) model was used in the context of counterfactual analysis to eliminate the bias caused by the unobservable heterogeneity in the regression analysis of the cross-sectional data. The study results showed that using soil and water conservation measures rather than conventional ones in cultivation would result in reducing the consumed water and the poverty gap by 3160 cubic meters and 37 percent, respectively, and the yield would increase by 1.83 tons. The results of this study might be used to plan for removing barriers and developing the application of soil and water conservation technologies.

Foreign trade is a critical component of economic development, particularly for developing countries. Over recent years, product relatedness has turned into an emergent factor in international trade. According to empirical findings from various studies, this factor can alter the business models of different countries. In this regard, this study aimed at investigating the effect of product relatedness on Iran's agricultural exports and selected countries. For this purpose, the comparative advantage index and the proximity index were used to investigate the countries' specialization and similarities between products, respectively. The gravity model and the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method were also used to determine the effect of variables between 2001 and 2018. The gravity model results indicated the significant effect of the product relatedness variable on increasing the trade of Iranian agricultural products. It was also found that the per capita income and population of trading partners had a significantly positive effect on Iran's agricultural exports, while the effect of geographical distance was significantly negative. According to the findings, exporters are suggested to concentrate on close target markets with a high per capita income and a high level of product relatedness.

In order to economical assessment of transplanting compared with direct (conventional) cultivation of rapeseed (Ahmadi variety) as check in different sowing dates, this research carried out in farm of Kermanshah agriculture and natural resources research and education center and Seed and plant improvement institute in Karaj during 2018 and 2019. Treatments of this experiment included rapeseed cultivation in 7 October as control, transplanting in two and four leaf stage on 17 October, 1 November and 11 November. In this study, for getting to economic target used Partial Budgeting Technique and Benefit cost ratio. According to the results, in Alborz and Kermanshah provinces, the mean of grain yield of rapeseed in seed cultivation in 7 October was 3495 and 4857 kg.ha-1, respectively. In Kermanshah province to Alborz province, the mean of grain yield and net income of check treatment during experimental years was increased 39 and 72.2 percent, respevtively and Net present value check treatment with discount rate 20% was increased 78.9 percent. Comparing trnsplanting treatments in target regions, transplanting planting in Alborz province to Kermanshah was more profitable. Thus,in terms of crops and economic preference, rapeseed cultivation in 7 October treatment as check treatment was selected as the best treatments in target provinces.

Paying attention to the needs and wants of consumers is the first step to develop the market of organic products, because recognizing consumer behavior and examining the factors affecting it has a very important role in the success of any economic system. Therefore, this study aimed at examining the intention to buy organic food in the critical situation of the existence of the corona virus and risk perception posed by it as one of the factors affecting the consumer's intention to buy using the theory of planned behavior. For this purpose, the required data and information were collected in 2020 through field surveys and completing a questionnaire. The statistical population of the study included all the organic food consumers in Torbat-e Heydarieh county of Iran. Based on Cochran's formula, the sample size consisted of 210 people. Stratified random sampling method was used for sampling and selecting the individuals in the studid community and structural equation modeling was used for data analysis. The results showed that the correlation coefficients of the organic food consumers' risk perception of corona virus with their attitudes, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and anticipated fear were 0.222, 0.65, 0.625 and 0.592, respectively and the consumer's attitude (0.452), risk perception (0.268) and anticipated fear (0.101) had the greatest impact on the intention to buy organic food. Therefore, by introducing the benefits of organic products through mass media, people's attitudes towards organic products can be changed; also, by informing the people of the society about the risk of the corona virus, it is possible to create the intention of placing organic products in the consumption basket of the household.

Dasht-e Abbas plain is one of the most important agricultural areas of Ilam province of Iran, which has suffered environmental problems in recent years. If the new water resource management policy causes an increase in the pollution of underground water resources or in general, damage to the environment, there is no price for this damage in the market. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the non-market value of water entering from the Karkheh dam to the Dasht-e Abbas plain aquifer using the Choice Experiment (CE) method; Also, by presenting environmental and socio-economic characteristics in a questionnaire and data collected from 108 operators, the value of non-use and indirect use of water transfer to this aquifer was estimated. The study results showed that in this aquifer, the highest amount paid was related to soil salinity and desertification with the amount of about 258 thousand IRI rials per hectare per month and the reduction of the reed area with the amount of 176 thousand IRI rials placed in the second rank; and the amount of employment with the lowest amount of willingness to pay was about 69 thousand IRI rials per hectare per month and the total willingness to pay of each reservoir operating household was about 630 thousand IRI rials per hectare per month. According to the study results, estimating the preferences expressed by farmers regarding the extracted characteristics can help planners in managing aquifers before applying any policy or program. Therefore, it is suggested that the authorities and planners of the agricultural sector pave the ground for participation of less experienced farmers in such projects by making them aware of the importance of the environment and its close relationship with their product yields,.

The policy of allocating preferential exchange rate to basic goods have always been a point of debate between the supporters and opponents of its continuation due to either concern about the negative effects of its removal on the vulnerable groups in the society or  uncertainty about fulfillment of its intended goals. In addition, at least until early 2022, no suitable alternative policy has been adopted for the allocation of preferential exchange rate to basic goods and undoubtedly, the prerequisite for adopting any alternative policy is to estimate the effects of removing the preferential exchange rate on economic sectors. Therefore, this study aimed at estimating the effects of the shock caused by eliminating the preferential exchange rate of agricultural inputs within three scenarios (25%, 50% and 100%) on the economic variables of the agricultural sector. For this purpose, the data was collected from the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 2011 and the input-output table of 2016 and their analysis was done with the Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model. The results showed that the removal of preferential exchange rate, respectively, had the most negative effects on imports, added value, fixed capital formation and exports of livestock products, plant products, fishing and forestry sub-sectors, so that the effects were estimated -3.05, -2.50, -3.89, and -1.48 percent on added value, fixed capital formation, import and export of the entire agricultural sector, respectively. Finally, since the negative effects of the preferred exchange rate removal for agricultural inputs on the agricultural sector were found less than the increase in the inflation caused by not removing the preferred exchange rate of basic goods and even less than the inflation caused by removing the entire preferred exchange rate of basic goods, removing the preferred exchange rate of agricultural inputs followed by adopting an alternative support policy (combined policy with effective support for producers and consumers, especially vulnerable groups, such as a credit card or combining a basket of goods with a credit card) was suggested.

Due to its special position in providing drinking water for the people of Hamadan province of Iran and being on the migration path of migratory birds, Abshineh Dam Wetland is important from an environmental point of view. Considering the provision of numerous and valuable goods and services by this wetland, this study aimed at determining the protection value of Abshineh Wetland and measuring the Hamadan residents' willingness to pay for its protection. For this purpose, conditional valuation method was used in a hypothetical market based on general preference. Also, to estimate the model, the logit model and the maximum likelihood estimation method were used, and the two-dimensional double selection method was used to extract the suggested amounts. Sampling was done using cluster random sampling method and study data was collected through interviews with 209 heads of households in Hamadan city in 2018. The study results showed that the variables of education level, household income, the level of familiarity with the wetland and knowledge about the habitat services of the wetland had positive effects, and the proposed amount variable had a negative effect on the willingness of people to pay for the preservation of the Absheena wetland. The average amount of willingness to pay for the preservation of the wetland was about 27870 IRI Rials and the annual protection value of the wetland was estimated to be more than 38.3 billion IRI Rials.