فصلنامه مطالعات آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز
پیاپی 118 (تابستان 1401)

America in the Post-Corona Order; continued contrast of hegemony survival and Delegitimation ChinaAbstractMany years have passed since the popularization of the term post-American order, an order that most researchers think is centered on China. In the meantime, the emergence of the Corona epidemic and its transformation into a global crisis, and more importantly, the lack of leadership, as well as the failure of the United States in this pandemic, caused some to call it the cause of the decline of the hegemony of the United States. this study focused on the Post-Corona international system of  in the dimension of hegemony and anti-hegemony [America and China], is trying to answer the question based on scenario writing and Delphi technique; Will Corona lead to the fall of Washington's hegemony and replace it with Beijing or not? Studies show that the fall of American hegemony is naive for several reasons. Because America's lead over China will remain. But China with modeling its image as a savior. In the Corona era, due to the success in curbing it and also creating a line of global friendships with most countries by taking advantage of Mask's diplomacy, it has entered the stage of delegitimization of the US-led order. Now it has to be seen if the leaders of Beijing, considering this increase in their influence, will have the desire and will to finish this stage and enter the final stage of the power cycle or not? Something that is currently, if not impossible, but it will definitely be complicated and challenging.

Russia's massive invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the severe financial sanctions imposed against Moscow have not only had an economic impact on Russia; but, the consequence of this crisis has also affected the international economy, including America and Europe’s markets. The inflation caused by the Ukraine crisis, which has currently disrupted most of the world's economies, including the United States and Europe, is constantly increasing due to the sharp increase in the prices of oil, gas, industrial and agricultural products. This article tries to examine the economic impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022 on the key players of the global economy, especially the United States and Europe, which have imposed severe financial sanctions against Russia. Therefore, the main question of this research is: What effect will the Russia – Ukraine war have on the international economy, especially for the U.S. and Europe?The hypothesis of the research is that given the fact that the conflict in Ukraine has the political and military dimensions, the leaders of these countries have prioritized the political issues over the economic issues in their decision making process to address this crisis. This has caused the economy to be affected again by high politics issues and faced stagnation and increase in global prices which once was considered as a low politics during the Cold War and then, it became more relevant in the decision-making process of governments after the Cold War.This paper has applied the descriptive-analytical method to analyze the data.

This study examines the opportunities facing Iran to revise its geo-economics’ approach to the Eurasian Economic Union’s member countries through four techniques: Cosine index, Finger and Crinin index, Grubel and Lloyd index and estimation potential trade index in 2019. The results of the Cosinus index indicate that Iran has the highest degree of similarity with Belarus 0.858 and the correlation coefficient calculated with the Finger and Crinin index 0.918 confirms these results. According to the Grubel-Lloyd index, Iran had the most intra-industrial trade with the Eurasian Union in the product of all skin types and raw skin and Leather. 0.943. The results of the trade potential index showed that Iran has made little use of its trade capacity with Eurasian countries, so that, for example, it has only relied on 0.16% of the 1.8% of its export capacity to Russia. On the other hand, the article moves on to identify and calculate a set of goods that have the highest degree of intra-industrial trade as well as the highest export potential to Eurasian Union’s countries.Therefore, it is suggested that according to a long-term approach a country like Iran should look at the all three components of geo-economics (economy, geography, and power) in the same direction to secure its long - term interests through an effective regional convergence. These results can be a proper guideline to draw Iran's trade promotion strategy with Eurasian Union member states in order to revise the geo-economic approach of the country.

Although the war in Ukraine is geopolitically a North-North war or Europe's concern but in effect, it is a great power competition between major world powers which is a manifestation of anticipated decline of U.S. hegemony and openly challenging the Pax Americana. In such a situation, the attitude, conduct and performance of involved actors in the war could have a critical consequence for the future of world politics.This research seeks to apply the future research methodology and the scenario planning techniques to analyze the Russia – Ukraine war and answer these questions: what will be the future scenarios of the Russia – Ukraine war? What consequences this war might have for the future of the international system? Accordingly , 4 scenarios  could be proposed in 3 categories: a) Favorable scenario: Russia-China political-military alliance; containing the US and NATO and changing the rules of the international game; B) Probable scenarios: 1) peace agreement (with the role of actors such as China, Turkey, Israel, France) and changing the order of the structure of the international system, 2) the continuation of war and the continuation of tension in the international order; C) Possible scenario: the risk of nuclear war. The findings of the present study show that the war in Ukraine as a turning point / stimulus affects the international order and after the war in Ukraine, the international system will enter a new era. The implications of this war on the international level will be the polarization of international security and the geopoliticization of international politics. This war has also strengthened the leadership position of the United States at the global level, at the expense of its European partners.

Analyzing Turkey's foreign policy positions to the dynamics in Syria is important, considering the strategic importance of the latter country in different dimensions. Turkey’s approaches towards the development of the Syrian civil war have gone through the changing trends since the beginning of Syria conflict in 2011 until today. The article tries to answer the question of what role have the identity notions played in Turkey's foreign policy regarding the Syrian civil war by applying a descriptive-explanatory method and through a constructivist theoretical approach. Beyond the realistic approaches, this paper also tests this hypothesis that Turkey’s foreign policy towards Syria could be explained based on Turkey's identical notions. The research findings show that Turkey's foreign policy towards the Syrian civil war in the regional and international spheres has been shaped by an amalgamation of the country's identical notions such as the nationalist concepts, denying the Kurdish factor, opposing the Islamic resistance and competition with Iran, the identity of Muslim brotherhood and presenting a model of Turkish Islam and finally the concept of Neo-Ottomanism.

The causes of wars and conflicts at different levels in international relations can be investigated and interrogated from the perspective of threat perception. Threat perception is an intervening factor that effects the decision of countries to enter into war, deterrence, coercion, alliance and any other options. The relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as two important powers of the Middle East and Southwest Asia, which have undergone a serious metamorphosis especially after the Islamic Revolution and changed from cooperative -oriented to competitive approach, can also be analyzed from this point of view. The question of the present research is how the threat perception has influenced the foreign policy’s direction of Iran and Saudi Arabia (especially in the two regions of the Middle East and Central Asia) towards each other? The research method in this article is descriptive-analytical and its data collection method is based on documentary research. This study deals with one of the most recent crises in the foreign relations of the two countries, i.e. the tensions created after the execution of Sheikh Nimr by the Saudi family and the cessation of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 2016. By focusing on this crisis, which is different from the previous crises in the foreign relations of the two countries, this research aims to examine the relevance of threat perception in their foreign relations during this period of time. By applying the theoretical framework of threat perception and Cohen's desired indicators of threat perception, i.e. the statements of decision makers and leaders and their reaction to threats, as well as their confrontational behavior against threat perception, the research findings show that this factor plays a prominent and undeniable role in shaping the foreign policy of the two countries as well as the controversies of their leaders in the two regions of the Middle East and Central Asia.