فهرست مطالب

بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک - سال نوزدهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 69، بهار 1402)

فصلنامه بین المللی ژئوپلیتیک
سال نوزدهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 69، بهار 1402)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1401/12/06
  • تعداد عناوین: 10
|
  • اباذر بینائیان، محمدرضا حافظ نیا*، محمدکاظم سجادپور، ابراهیم رومینا صفحات 1-32

    هویت و انسجام ملی مبتنی بر فضای جغرافیایی مربوطه از عنصر سیاست تاثیر می پذیرد. سیاست واجد ابعاد مختلف و در زمینه های مختلف نیز قابل بررسی هستند یکی از مهم ترین سیاست هایی که در دهه اخیر به نظر می رسد بر هویت و انسجام مردم دارای تاثیر بوده و به گفتمان حاکمیت و اجتماع مبدل شده، سیاست هسته ای است. بر همین اساس این پژوهش در پی بررسی و شناسایی تاثیر سیاست هسته ای جمهوری اسلامی ایران بر تقویت انسجام ملی و هویت ملی ایرانیان می باشد. برای تحقق این هدف، در پژوهش حاضر از روش کتابخانه ای و نیز کمی- پیمایشی استفاده شده و از نظرات 72 نفر از متخصصان و صاحبنظران جغرافیای سیاسی، علوم سیاسی و علوم اجتماعی استفاده گردید. سپس پرسشنامه توزیع شده استخراج و داده ها با استفاده از نرم افزارهای SPSS و SMART PLS مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفته است. یافته ها بیانگر آن است که سیاست انرژی هسته ای بر انسجام و هویت ملی تاثیر معناداری به واسطه «سازوکارهای اقناع مردم» در سه قالب «گفتمان ها»، «تاکتیک ها» و «ابزارها» داشته است. همچنین یافته ها بیانگر آن است که ج.ا.ایران برای گفتمان سازی سیاست هسته ای و اقناع اجتماعی از ابزارهای گوناگون همچون صدا و سیما و تریبون ایمه جمعه استفاده کرده است و بازیگران سیاسی نیز تصویر معماری شده دولت را با اغراض و اهداف سیاسی در فضای جغرافیایی ملی و فراملی توجیه و تفسیر کرده اند.

    کلیدواژگان: سیاست هسته ای، انرژی هسته ای، انسجام ملی، هویت ملی، تصویرسازی ژئوپلیتیکی
  • رسول افضلی، ابوالقاسم محمودی، علی باقری* صفحات 33-68

    توجه به تنوع قومی و سیاست های مدیریت اقوام از مسایل مهم در مدیریت سیاسی فضایی- جغرافیایی ایران است. از آنجایی که ضرورت این مساله بر کسی پوشیده نیست، شناخت این سیاست ها و نحوه اعمال آنها می تواند یکی از اهداف پژوهشی باشد. در این بین یکی از ابزارهای دولت برای اعمال سیاست های قومی رسانه های جمعی است. تلویزیون عامه پسندترین جلوه فرهنگ در قرن 21 است؛ و لذا تحلیل محتوای برنامه های تلویزیونی در خصوص اقوام روش مناسبی برای شناخت سیاست های قومی دولت هاست. در این مقاله تبیین سیاست های قومی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در رسانه ملی با تاکید بر فیلم های عامه پسند تلویزیونی با استفاده از روش تحلیل محتوا هدف مقاله بوده است. نتایج به دست آمده نشان می دهد، بین بازنمایی فیلم های عامه پسند رسانه ملی و واقعیات قومی در جامعه تفاوت زیادی وجود دارد و سیاست تکثرگرایی در بعد فرهنگی در فیلم های عامه پسند رسانه ملی بازنمایی شده است.

    کلیدواژگان: قومیت، ایران، رسانه، تحلیل محتوا، بازنمایی
  • سجاد نجفی، کیومرث یزدان پناه درو*، زهرا پیشگاهی فرد، مرجان بدیعی ازنداهی صفحات 69-95

    سیاست و مولفه های وابسته به آن جایگاه و نقش برجسته ای در روابط میان کشورها و سنجش قدرت ملی آن ها دارد، در این میان قدرت دفاعی کشورها نیز بی تاثیر از سیاست های حاکم بر کشورها و عوامل و متغیرهای سیاسی نبوده و افزایش قدرت نظامی-دفاعی کشورها رابطه مستقیم و معناداری با عوامل سیاسی حاکم و تصمیم گیری های سیاسی دارد. در همین راستا در مقاله پیش رو در راستای پاسخ به این سوال که از میان عوامل سیاسی تاثیرگذار بر قدرت دفاعی ایران، کلیدی ترین و تاثیرگذارترین عوامل کدامند؟ با هدف شناسایی عوامل سیاسی کلیدی موثر بر قدرت دفاعی ایران، با مبنا قرار دادن نظریه بازدارندگی به عنوان چارچوب نظری تحقیق و تلفیقی از روش های توصیفی-تحلیلی و پیمایشی (استفاده از نظر 50 نفر از خبرگان و تکمیل پرسشنامه)، ضمن شناسایی نیروهای پیشران سیاسی تاثیرگذار بر قدرت دفاعی ایران با استفاده از نرم افزار آینده پژوهی میک مک و بکارگیری روش تحلیل ماتریس متقاطع، عوامل سیاسی کلیدی تاثیرگذار بر قدرت دفاعی ایران مشخص و سناریوهای مربوط تدوین گردیده است. بر طبق یافته ها و نتایج عوامل سیاسی کلیدی بدست آمده می بایست در تدوین راهبردهای نظامی و دفاعی کشور لحاظ و مورد توجه قرار گیرند.

    کلیدواژگان: قدرت، قدرت دفاعی، دیپلماسی دفاعی، آینده پژوهی، نرم افزار میک مک
  • معصومه انصاری فرد، امیرمحمد حاجی یوسفی* صفحات 96-130

    با سیطره ایالات متحده آمریکا بر نظم نوین جهانی، منطقه خاورمیانه به یکی از کانون های اصلی اعمال استراتژی بازدارندگی ایالات متحده آمریکا در دفاع از متحدانش در برابر ایران تبدیل گردید. جمهوری اسلامی ایران نیز در پاسخ به تهدیدات آمریکا و متحدانش و با وجود فشارهای ناشی از محیط منطقه ای و محیط بین الملل، در صدد ایجاد استراتژی امنیتی-دفاعی جامعی در قالب بازدارندگی برآمده است. مقاله حاضر به دنبال پاسخ به این پرسش بوده است که «محیط متحول منطقه ای و بین المللی چگونه بر استراتژی بازدارندگی ایران در برابر آمریکا و متحدانش تاثیر گذاشته است؟». آزمون فرضیه با روش قیاسی-تبیینی و تحلیل داده های اسنادی نشان می دهد که چگونه معضلات اتحاد در منطقه خاورمیانه زمینه ساز گرایش ایران به اتحاد با روسیه و چین که در حال اجرای سیاست منطقه خاکستری در تقابل با آمریکا هستند، شده است. این موارد با بازتولید ابهام و بی ثباتی سبب چالش در بازدارندگی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در منطقه خاورمیانه می شوند.

    کلیدواژگان: ایران، آمریکا، بازدارندگی، اتحاد، منطقه خاکستری
  • احسان لشگری تفرشی* صفحات 131-151

    هویت سرزمینی مشتمل بر مجموعه ای از نمادها و فرایندهایی است که توسط گفتمان سیاسی در مقطع مشخص از تاریخ مفصل بندی و نسبت به سایر گفتمان ها حایز برتری می گردد. در این راستا با ظهور حکومت صفویه در سال 1501 میلادی برای نخستین بار بعد از سقوط سلسله ساسانی یک حکومت فراگیر منطبق با مرزهای سیاسی ایران باستان شکل گرفت که دال مرکزی هویت بخش آن مذهب تشیع بود. در این پژوهش کوشش گردیده با روش تفسیری؛ عناصر گفتمانی مذهب تشیع در ایجاد انسجام اجتماعی در عصر صفویه تحلیل گردد. یافته های تحقیق نشان می دهد تشیع با زمینه سازی برای اعطای جایگاه معنوی به پادشاهان صفوی ناشی از انتساب به ایمه اطهار و همچنین فقهای تشیع با ارایه احکام فقهی مورد نیاز موجب افزایش توان حاکمیت در ایجاد انسجام اجتماعی گردیدند. ضمن اینکه غیریت سازی ژیوپلیتیکی با حکومت اهل سنت عثمانی نیز در ایجاد انسجام اجتماعی تاثیرگذار بود.

    کلیدواژگان: تشیع، گفتمان، انسجام اجتماعی، قلمروسازی، حکومت صفویه
  • جواد اطاعت*، علی اکبر دبیری، احمد طاهری، معصومه فروزان فر صفحات 152-175

    حملات تروریستی در ایران طی چهار دهه گذشته از نظر الگوی فضایی- زمانی، گروه های تروریستی عمل کننده و ابزارهای مورد استفاده ویژگی‏های متفاوتی داشته است. مساله این پژوهش که با رویکرد تحلیل فضایی و روش کمی انجام شده است، این است که حملات تروریستی در ایران دارای چه الگوی فضایی- زمانی بوده است؟ و نحوه پراکنش حملات گروه‎های تروریستی مختلف و روش‏های آنها چه تفاوتی با یکدیگر دارند؟  نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش نشان می ‏دهد که ایران در فاصله زمانی سال‏های 1357 تا 1397 با سه موج بلند و دو موج کوتاه حملات تروریستی مواجه بوده است. حملات گروه های تروریستی ضدحکومتی از الگوی پخش سلسله مراتبی پیروی کرده است. در حالی که حملات گروه های تروریستی تجزیه طلب تابع الگوی پخش یا سرایت مجاورتی بوده است. در موج اول و دوم بلند و موج اول کوتاه حملات تروریستی عمدتا از روش هایی مانند حمله مسلحانه و بمب گذاری استفاده شده است، اما در موج سوم بلند و موج دوم کوتاه حملات تروریستی، حملات انتحاری متداول بوده است.

    کلیدواژگان: تروریسم، حملات تروریستی، ایران، الگوی فضایی-زمانی
  • مجید رسولی*، غلامرضا بلندیان، یاسر کنعانی صفحات 176-206

    قاره آفریقا با توجه به ویژگی های منحصر به فرد خود دارای شرایطی مناسب در راستای گسترش ایدیولوژی نوسلفی وهابی و جریان های افراطی است؛ به گونه ای که تهدیدات ناشی از گسترش آن منجر به بسط و توسعه شبکه های اسلام گرای رادیکال در این قاره شده است. در همین راستا، این نوشتار زمینه وسیع تری از جریان های مختلف عملکرد اسلامی در آفریقا و عوامل اجتماعی، اقتصادی و سیاسی که در منطقه شکل گرفته اند را مورد شناسایی قرار داده و به تجزیه و تحلیل عوامل موثر در شکل گیری آن ها پرداخته است. هدف از انجام پژوهش حاضر بررسی تاثیر ایدیولوژی نوسلفی وهابی بر جریان های افراطی در قاره آفریقا می باشد که می تواند برای برنامه ریزی و مدیریت جریان های نوسلفی به عنوان الگویی مدنظر قرار گیرد. این تحقیق با روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و با استفاده از روش میدانی و بهره گیری از تکنیک دیمتل درصدد بررسی تاثیر ایدیولوژی نوسلفی وهابی بر جریان های افراطی در قاره آفریقا است. یافته های تحقیق نشان داد متغیرهایی مانند ایدیولوژی حذف، مداخلات سازمان ملل و نهادهای بین المللی، فقر فرهنگی و ایدیولوژی مسلمانان آفریقایی، ناکارآمدی دولت، جنبش ضدآپارتاید برای مبارزه تبعیض نژادی در منطقه نشان دهنده تعامل بالا و ارتباط سیستمی قوی با سایر متغیرها هستند. عواملی مانند عدم فعالیت منسجم جریان بیداری اسلامی، دیدگاه منفی نسل جدید آفریقایی از استعمار غرب، ضعف ساختاری آن با سایر مناطق جهان، فقدان درآمد کافی به عنوان معلول نمایش داده شده است.

    کلیدواژگان: نوسلفی وهابی، جریان های افراطی، قاره آفریقا، تروریسم
  • داود کریمی پور* صفحات 207-244

    رهیافت ژیواکونومیک در تحلیل  روابط خارجی کشورها، به مثابه یک الگوی نوین نشان می دهد که چه متغیرهایی در شکل گیری روابط خارجی دو کشور در قبال یکدیگر نقش داشته اند. در مقاله حاضر، مبتنی بر این رهیافت، عملکرد روسیه در قبال چهار کشور قدرتمند اروپایی شامل آلمان، فرانسه، ایتالیا و بریتانیا مورد بررسی قرار می گیرد. هدف از این مطالعه، در واقع ارایه الگوی نوینی از تحلیل برای مطالعه چگونگی شکل گیری و سطح روابط در سیاست خارجی کشورها است. سوال اصلی مقاله پیش رو عبارت است از اینکه، متغیرهای اثرگذار در شکل گیری روابط ژیواکونومیک روسیه با کشورهای اروپای غربی تا چه اندازه نقش آفرین بوده اند. در پاسخ، این فرضیه مطرح است که سطح و عمق روابط روسیه با کشورهای اروپای غربی، تابعی از برهم کنش و تاثیرگذاری متقابل متغیرهای ژیواکونومیک شامل مکان جغرافیایی، عوامل اقتصادی، ژیوپلیتیک و ژیوکالچر است. یافته های مقاله که مبتنی بر روش مطالعه موردی کیفی ابزاری انجام شده، نشان می دهد که این متغیرها در روابط خارجی روسیه با دولت های غربی، اثرگذاری متفاوتی داشته اند. روابط روسیه با آلمان دارای بیشتر سطح درهم تنیدگی بوده و در مقابل، بریتانیا از کمترین سطح تداخل متغیرهای ژیواکونومیک با روسیه برخوردار است. همچنین، متغیر اقتصاد در تعامل با ایتالیا و متغیر ژیوپلیتیک در روابط با فرانسه، نقش اصلی را در مدیریت روابط خارجی روسیه ایفا کرده اند.

    کلیدواژگان: روسیه، روابط خارجی، ژئواکونومی، غرب اروپا
  • هاشم آقازاده، مصباح سیوندیان، امیرسالار ونکی* صفحات 245-268

    افزایش رقابت پذیری ملی به عنوان یکی از اهداف سند چشم انداز بیست ساله مورد توجه بسیاری از سیاست گذاران و مسیولین بوده است. لذا هدف این پژوهش ارایه چارچوبی جهت تعیین اولویت های رقابتی کشور جمهوری اسلامی ایران و تعیین کشورهای محک با استفاده از شاخص رقابت پذیری جهانی است. از این میان شاخص رقابت پذیری جهانی(GCI) که امکان شناسایی نقاط قوت و ضعف رشد اقتصادی، توسعه و رقابت پذیری را برای کشورها فراهم می آورد. اگرچه در این شاخص به هر یک از زیر شاخص ها با توجه به مراحل توسعه، وزن متفاوتی اختصاص داده شده، اما وزن های ثابتی برای ستون های هر دسته در نظر گرفته شده است. حال آنکه تاثیر هر یک از ستون ها در میزان رقابت پذیری کشورها متفاوت است. از طرف دیگر، به دلیل  تفاوت در سیاست ها و اولویت های رقابتی کشورها، نیاز است تا کشورهایی که از نظر محیط رقابتی به یکدیگر شبیه هستند، با یکدیگر مقایسه شوند. از این رو در این پژوهش به منظور تعیین میزان تاثیرگذاری هر یک از ستون ها در رقابت پذیری، ابتدا کشورها را با استفاده از روش خوشه بندی فازی C میانگین خوشه بندی می کنیم. سپس با استفاده از روش وزن دهی CCSD وزن هر یک از ستون ها را در هر خوشه تعیین می کنیم. وزن به دست آمده در واقع بیانگر اولویت های لازم برای اصلاحات سیاسی برای هر کشور در هر خوشه است. در ادامه به منظور رتبه بندی کشورهای هر خوشه، از روش آراس استفاده می کنیم. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده ستون های رقابتی بازار نیروی کار، ثبات اقتصاد کلان و زیرساخت به عنوان اولویت های اول کشور شناسایی شدند. همچنین کشورهای لاتویا تایلند و قبرس کشورهای برتر در خوشه ایران بوده اند که می توانند به عنوان کشور محک مورد استفاده قرار گیرند.

    کلیدواژگان: سند چشم انداز، شاخص رقابت پذیری جهانی، خوشه بندی، وزن دهی، رتبه بندی
  • آرش رئیسی نژاد* صفحات 269-306

    نوشته پیش رو به دنبال ریشه های سیاست خارجی غیردولتی ایران با کاوش جغرافیا و تاریخ ویژه این کشور است. "چه عواملی و با چه سازوکاری برسازنده سیاست خارجی غیردولتی ایران است؟" این پرسش بنیادین و محوری نوشته پیش روست که خوانشی تحلیلی از ژرفا و دامنه پیوندهای استراتژیک ایران با گروه های غیردولتی در منطقه را نمایان می سازد. برای روشن ساختن این استراتژی ژیوپلیتیکی ، نوشته با برجسته ساختن نفرین جغرافیایی و ناامنی تاریخی پیوسته ایران به تشریح مفهوم بنیادی "تنهایی استراتژیک تاریخی ایران" می پردازد. از این دریچه، نوشته به پیوند دیرین تنهایی استراتژیک تاریخی با ژیوپلیتیک  ایران اشاره دارد. در ادامه، تاثیر پیوسته چنین تنهایی استراتژیک تاریخی را بر سیاست خارجی غیردولتی برای مهار دشمنان منطقه ای ایران نشان می دهد. سرانجام، نوشته استدلال می کند که گرچه سیاست خارجی غیردولتی باعث حفظ یکپارچگی و امنیت ملی ایران شده است، اما کشور را در یک "مخمصه ژیوپلیتیکی" مداوم به دام انداخته است.

    کلیدواژگان: تنهایی استراتژیک، سیاست خارجی غیردولتی، استراتژی ژئوپلیتیکی، مخمصه ژئوپلیتیک، همتافته تهاجمی-تدافعی
|
  • Abazar Binaeian, Mohammadreza Hafeznia *, Seyed MohammdKazem Sajjadpour, Ebrahim Romina Pages 1-32
    Introduction

    Nuclear policy of Islamic Republic of Iran, as prominent part of national policy became a general issue of the country in the recent decades, its strategies had significant effects on life of citizens. Making strategies of nuclear policy of IRI provoke the foreign forces and external threats contributed to make decision for internal nuclear policy. Nuclear Diplomatic process that began since previous decades entered new stage through Vienna Agreement Contract (it is called common action program). The present research attempted to study its effects on national solidarity and identity.On the issue of nuclear energy, national policy has affected the solidarity and national identity of the Iranian people. Because most national strategies and policies have affected people's morale, especially national solidarity. The discussion of “identity” is from basic and essential themes around "nationalization" in political-geographical region.This research is an excerpt from a doctoral thesis in the field of political geography at Tarbiat Modarres University. The present article explains the field data and statistical data of the research.

    Research methodology

    In terms of nature, the method of the present study is descriptive/analytical and In terms of purpose, it’s fundamental and explains the role of politics in shaping the intellectual space of society in a specific geographical space (Iran). The data of this study were collected by field method and based on the researcher's questionnaire. This questionnaire, after accreditation by Cronbach's alpha, was distributed to 72 experts in the fields of political geography, political science, and social sciences selected through non-probabilistic sampling. After extraction and compression, the data were analyzed using SPSS and Lisrel software. Then the research hypotheses were evaluated and the research results were explained.Descriptive findings of research:In the present research, “nuclear policy” variable was encoded from 1 to 5 in 10 items with 5 components: political players approach, political processes, political documents, party tension, and international relations. Code closer to 4/6 suggested more success of these components in nuclear policy.Variable of “national solidarity improvement” was based on 10 items with four components of “threat, common value, common interest, common attachment” which each item had 5 answers with 1 to5 codes. Code closer to 4/5 suggested more success of this variable. Threat component was effective more than other. Common interest and common attachment as expert’s views.Variable of “public satisfaction” was made based on 14 items and three components of “communication, tactics, tools” which each of them encoded from 1-5. Range of this variable was ½ to 4/6. Code closer to 4/6 suggested more satisfaction.Analysis (explaining of findings)According that the research variables were based on the Likert scale and based on the distance measurement level, the Colomograph -Smirnov test was used to test the normality.Since that distribution was not normal, so smart PLS software was used because this software was consistent to factor analysis and analysis of structural equations. Therefore, all items of research were approved.

    Results

    Nuclear energy policy has largely sought to justify its goals (average 3.4). In this policy, political actors, especially those such as fundamentalists and reformists, sought to justify it, and this justification was achieved through political processes.Nuclear energy policy was formed in each period based on previous historical relations and experience. Today, if the level of tension is rising or there is no desire for a new agreement, it is failure to adhere to the agreements that throughout history Irahasseen from other countries, especially in the Vienna agreement.An examination of the impact of nuclear energy policy on national cohesion and national identity showed that there was no significant relationship between the nuclear energy policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran and national identity, and that policy had no effect on strengthening national identity.Regarding the role of Iran's mechanisms for discourse on nuclear policy, the results showed that the government used all possible means to achieve its policies, such as the media, radio and television, and the tribune of Friday prayers imams, and etc. Political actors also justified and interpreted the government's geopolitical Imagination with political motives and goals in the geographical space (national and supranational). The hypothesis of this case was confirmed at a high level.

    Keywords: Policy, Nuclear Energy, National Solidarity, National Identity, Geopolitical Imagination
  • Rasoul Afzali, Abolghasem Mahmoodi, Ali Bagheri * Pages 33-68
    Intrduction

    Among the tools of ethnic political management of a political system, the media, through the images they present of ethnic groups and the representations they make of them, show how people view ethnic groups and how they are constructed. Community identities have had the greatest impact. Among these media, television is one of the first of these media. In the Islāmic Republic of Iran, different policies are applied to ethnicities; all studies in this area have often examined the government's ethnic policies by setting written criteria such as documents, reports, rules, and regulations. Given the governmental and governance nature of the media and the Islāmic Republic of Iran's Radio and Television is a tool to show government policies in various fields, it is possible to study and explain ethnic policies in Iran by analyzing the content of media programs. It addressed the policies pursued by the political system with the tools of the national media, with the aim of regulating the relations between the small groups of identity and national identity. The main issue in this study is to check the ethnic policies of the Islāmic Republic of Iran towards ethnicities and to understand the approaches of ethnic representation through the analysis of the content of popular films broadcast on television.

    Methodology

    In this paper, the content analysis method is used to collect and analyze data. In the analysis of the content of TV films, the sample unit was popular films; the recording unit, ethnic themes, and symbols; Statistical analysis of ethnic policy items have also been provided separately to answer research questions as a unit of analysis in research counting units that are film sequences.

    Result and Discussion

    The research findings are analyzed in the form of 24 categories: first category: film genre, second category: film subject, third category: threat and humiliation of ethnic groups, fourth category: adherence of ethnic culture to the dominant culture, Fifth and sixth categories: repression and imprisonment of ethnic figures, seventh category: local language, eighth category: local language in the school environment or government offices, ninth category: school access to Persian language, Tenth category: social participation of ethnic groups, eleventh category: independent political organization, twelfth category: loyalty of ethnic groups to sovereignty, thirteenth category: ethnic disputes, fourteenth and fifteenth category: ethnic killing or expulsion and separation of ethnic groups from the land, sixteenth category: national unity, Seventeenth category: local protests, Eighteenth category: ethnic coöperation with local groups, nineteenth category: local clothing, twentieth category: Persians, twenty-first category: homogeneity of greatest and minority, twenty-second category: ethnic politics, twenty-third category: peaceful coexistence, last category : Which people? The findings show that the highest frequency is related to pluralism, but in the cultural dimension, not in the structural dimension. That is to say, attention to cultural differences such as customs, local dress, the local language, as well as peaceful living between subcultures, or local tribes and groups has been given more emphasis.

    Conclusion

    In popular Iranian national media films, the politics of pluralism in the cultural dimension are represented more often, And in the second priority, ethnic replication policies and some of its dialects have also had significant frequency in the sequences. Representation of the demands and demands (social, cultural, economic, and political) of the ethnic groups also shows that these structural and political demands of the ethnic groups have been completely ignored And there have been negative and passive reactions to them from the central government. Finally, there is a big difference between representing popular films in the national media and ethnic realities in society; Because if we consider the content and genre of films, a small number of films are based on a historical genre made by national media agents, and as a result, many of them have been shown with an unrealistic theme of the history of ethnic groups and ethnic groups.

    Keywords: ethnicity, Iran, Media, content analysis, Representation
  • Sajad Najafi, Kiyumars Yazdanpanah Dero *, Zahra Pishgahifard, Marjan Badiee Azendahi Pages 69-95
    Introduction

    Politics and its related components have a prominent role in relations between countries and their national power. Meanwhile, the defense power of countries is not unaffected by the governing policies of countries and political factors. Military-defense power of countries has a direct and significant relationship with the prevailing political factors and political decisions. Due to the special geopolitical situation and peripheral threats, Iran has always paid attention to increasing its power and defense capability in order to achieve sustainable security, and the governing political factors of Iran have effect on defense power.

    Methodology

    In this study, in order to explain the key political factors affecting Iran's defense power in 1410, by studying the relevant documents and previous scientific records and using the opinions of 50 experts, 97 political figures were identified. In the second step, with the formation of the expert panel, similar factors were merged and 36 factors were identified. Then, based on the opinion of experts, the values of the factors were ranked and 26 important and effective factors were determined. Finally, by using Micmac software and crossover matrix analysis method, 12 significant factors and 4 factors as key political factors affecting Iran's defense power were identified. It should be noted that the research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose and a combination of descriptive-analytical and survey methods (using the opinion of experts and a questionnaire).

    Results and Discussion

    According to the software output, 4 key factors:The wisdom of leadership and the managerial skills and ability of the country's political leadersThe country's membership and influence in regional and global alliances and treaties, and the power and credibility of regional and supra-regional allies, and the number of strategic partners (powerful countries) of Iran.Changes in regional powers and the emergence of new poles of power in the region and the establishment of a multipolar system in the world and the decline of the United States from the position of a superior hegemon and the emergence of China as a new international hegemony.Continuation of Iran's strongly anti-American foreign policy and areas of dispute (nuclear, human rights, terrorism, Israel) with the international community and the status of Iran's nuclear case in the Security Council and the United Nations.They were identified as the most important and key political factors affecting Iran's defense power. Also, four scenarios: development, obstruction, isolation and political risk were identified, which is the ideal and desirable scenario for the country in order to gain superior defense power, to be in a state of political development.

    Conclusion

    According to the theory of deterrence, as well as the teachings of the Qur'an and Islam, which emphasize the need for defense readiness against enemies, the need to strengthen the country's military capability to create defensive deterrence and ensure the interests and national security of the country is essential. Be. In this regard, according to the results of the research of four key political forces influencing the country's defense power should be used by military officials and commanders in formulating military strategies to create deterrence and achieve lasting security in the country.

    Keywords: Power, defense power, Defense Diplomacy, Future Studies, MICMAC software
  • Masomeh Ansari Fard, AmirMohammad Haji-Yousefi * Pages 96-130
    Introduction

    and the domination of the United States on the new global order, the Middle East became one of the main platforms of the foreign intervention, especially the focus of the US deterrence strategy. At the same time, balancing and alliance making have become the key elements in the new deterrence strategy, especially the US deterrence strategy in the Middle East. According to the US strategic documents, a comprehensive deterrent policy should be applied to the Islamic Republic of Iran in this region. The US goal has been preventing Iran from attacking its regional allies in order to achieve its desired order. But this in turn prompted the US regional allies, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, to engage in risky behaviors.In response to threats from the United States and its allies, the Islamic Republic of Iran has sought to adopt a comprehensive security-defense strategy in the form of deterrence. Meanwhile, the regional conditions of the Middle East, as well as the international environment, with the pressures they exert on Iran's domestic settinge, have complicated Iran's deterrent actions against the deterrent strategies of the United States and its allies.Therefore, the present article aims to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the threats and challenges of deterrence strategy of Iran against the United States and its allies in the context of the modern deterrence, posing the question of "What effects had the instable regional and international environment on Iran's deterrence strategy towards the United States and its allies in the Middle East?" In response to this question, this hypothesis is raised: "The complexities of alliance making in the instable Middle East region have caused Iran to try to enter in strategic relations with Russia and China, which are pursuing a gray zone policy towards the United States. By reproducing ambiguity and instability, this has caused challenges for Iran deterrence strategy in the Middle East."

    Methodology

    The present study, attempts to investigate the increasing interaction of challenges arising from the regional environment and international requirements for the deterrence policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, through a deductive-explanatory method and the analysis of documentary data. The concept of the gray zone is used to explain the policy of Russia and China, which are considered as Iran`s strategic partners in the absence of stable alliances in the Middle East.

    Discussion and Conclusion

    Studying Iran's deterrence strategy, beyond considering deterrence as a kind of communicating action between two or more countries, demands paying attention to contextual issues in the form of pressures and contextual requirements aroused from the regional and international environment on deterrence. This results in the success or failure of deterrence strategy in the Middle East. The most obvious regional pressure exerted by the floating and incoherent alliances of the Middle East, is due to economic issues and identity conflicts that complicate the possibility of Iranian deterrence strategy application. The Middle East regional structure is built in such a way that there is no cohesive alliance, and it is due to both the economic and identity situation in the region. Besides, it is regionally considered that to ally is to take part in military issues.In this situation, Iran, on the one hand, has to defend its weak allies against regional adversaries, which has even created discontent within Iran and is a challenge for exertion of the deterrence strategy. On the other hand, Iran is trying to bring other foreign players into its influential sphere in opposition to the United States, which is itself a pressure on Iran's deterrence strategy, due to the international environment; Since Russia and China are not able or even willing to compete with the US hegemony on the global level. By pursuing the policy of the gray zone, they seek macro-level stability and transfer instability to more restricted areas, such as the Middle East so that they can take advantage of the hegemony and thus, increase their power in the current international system. The policy of the gray zone reproduces instability and insecurity in the Middle East.Strong alliances and transparency in defending the ally lead to the deterrence strategy success. However, in the gray zone conflicts, where there is a significant lack of transparency in being interested in commitments’ maintenance, it is difficult to implement various strategies, including deterrence strategy. Thus, not only the deterrence strategy does not underpin its success as a credible ally, but the reproduction of ambiguity in the region fuels further misunderstandings of Iran-US deterrence actions. This leads to a challenge of the transparency of the deterrent relationship. In this chaotic situation and the unpredictability of behaviors, the actions of the adversary or its allies cannot be properly understood, so any one of Iran’s deterrent actions is perceived in a greater global competition context, by the United States. Meanwhile, the Iranian deterrence strategy does not receive a reliable support on behalf of Russia or China. Thus, even Iran's actions in order to assert the deterrence strategy credibility could itself encourage the United States to adopt greater military threats, in competition with China and Russia, leading to a spiraling crisis intensity. Ignoring these pressures would discredit Iran's deterrent threats and make Iran's deterrence strategy merely a reaction to the regional and international performances.Despite the escalation of various internal and external pressures in the Middle East, the conditions for conveying the message, rationality and assertion of the credibility of the threats are not provided. Therefore, in this turbulent and unstable environment, the activists move from deterrence to proxy conflicts and asymmetric warfare requirements. In the asymmetric warfare, identity activists and also weak powers against hegemony take the initiative in their asymmetric power and ability to counter threats. Not only regional actors but also other major powers, including Russia and China, are trying to take advantage of the relative advantage of their power and the asymmetric war in the Middle East, and it could be called the shadow war or guerrilla strategy.

    Keywords: Deterrence, Gray Zone, alliance, Iran, USA
  • Ehsan Lashgari * Pages 131-151
    Introduction

    With advent the Safavid dynasty in 1501, for first time after the fall of Sassanid dynasty, an all-encompassing government was formed in accordance with Iran’s ancient political borders. One of the reasons for this event; was the political use of Shiite religion by Safavid rulers.  Recognition of Shiism led to construction Iran’s territory and possibility the emergence of centralized political management in Safavid period. Theories about how social cohesion and homogeneous identity are formed can be divided into two broad categories in political geography. The first group believes that the formation of social cohesion, despite the historical ups and downs, has always been constant for a country throughout the history. Other theories assume that social cohesion is the result of various processes that have been actively developed through political institutions at different times. Factors such as religion, language, ethnicity, race and political ideology can be used by political power at particular time as source of social solidarity. In this regard, Shah Ismail Safavid after reaching the kingdom of Iran; Declared Shiism as official religion of Iran. In other words, Safavid Shiism has played an important role in building national identity and consolidating the dispersed sectarian-ethnic components in Iran. In literature of political sociology; There are several causes and consequences in the politicization of Shiism in the Safavid period. But in this analysis; Less has been done to analyze the spatial function of Shiism in creating social cohesion in this period.

    Methods and Material:

    In this research, has been attempt to analyze the spatial functions of Shiite religion in creating social cohesion in the Safavid era by descriptive-analytical method and relying on rational conclusions. In the first stage, has been attempted with using theoretical sources; Explain how emergence the Shiism in Iran coincided with the Safavid dynasty. Then, have been studied, how the political-spatial role of Shiism for creating legitimacy for political power and stabilization of Iran's territorial borders.

    Discussion and Results

    A- Geopolitical alienation and construction of national identity based on Shiite religion in the Safavid era In general, in the historical geopolitics of Iran, territorial alienation and geopolitical hostility has played important role in identity building. Safavid Shi'ism, unlike al-Buwayh's Shi'ism, has serious conflict with Sunni thought. As a result; this cultural fault rise to conflicting geopolitical structure between the Safavid dynasty and it’s neighboring Sunni governments. In particular, the Ottoman kings considered themselves Islamic caliphs who reserved the right to rule over all Muslims. However, with the formalization of Shiism, it created a solid wall against this traditional legitimacy in the Islamic world and This issue led to social cohesion of Iran in the Safavid era. B- Shiism and redefining the political power Charismatic position and its relation to social cohesion in the Safavid era In the political-historical geography of Iran, political power has always sought to create the spiritual faith in its legitimacy. In other word, building territorial political unit in the history of Iran was due to the ruler and government sacred position and leader played mediator role between God, the land and his subordinate tribes. Safavid dynasty formed with support of the Ghezelbash tribes, was at risk of civil war from beginning, but faith to political leadership sacred position kept them from confronting to each other. In Safavid times, according to Shiite jurisprudential views, powerful ruler was introduced as the shadow of God on earth and as a righteous ruler. C- Functions of recognizing Shiism in ethnic-tribal cohesion in the Safavid era From a geographical point of view, the natural condition of Iran was the basis of nomadism. Hence, the formation of “state-tribe" was proposed as dominant model of political rule in Iran. On the other hand, belonging to the identity of individuals to their tribe; It has been a barrier to the formation of national identity and the tribes did not have national feelings and awareness of trans-ethnic identity. As soon as the signs of weakness in the dominant government became apparent, the divergence of the tribes began. The Safavid government Relying on the Shiite religion, was able to fill ethnic-religious gaps of country and play effective role in maintaining national unity.

    Conclusion

    Formalization of Shiism by Safavid dynasty caused the Iranian people identity emerge as a distinct island in the Islamic world. However, Safavid dynasty achieved three main goals by formalizing Shiism: A) Creating new identity for Iranians b) Uniting Iranain different ethnic groups around a common religion c) Turning Iran into the center and global hub of Shiism. D) Establishment the powerful central government by resorting Shiite identity as the main basis for the formation of the Iranian nation

    Keywords: Shiism, Discourse, Social cohesion, Territorialization, Safavid Dynasty
  • Javad Etaat *, Aliakbar Dabiri, Ahmad Taheri, Masumeh Forouzanfar Pages 152-175
    Introduction

    Although terrorism is considered a political phenomenon in nature and having political goals is one of its inherent characteristics; But terrorist groups usually pursue a variety of political goals, and the places and locations of attacks by these terrorist groups depending on the type and nature of the political objective pursued is different. What is certain is that the distribution and concentration of terrorist attacks on a global, national, and local scale is not accidental, and Several features are influential in this distribution pattern. In Iran, both spatially and temporally, there have been periods of frequency and concentration of terrorist attacks that can be called the wave of terrorist attacks. In some periods, terrorist attacks and the activities of terrorist groups were concentrated in parts of the country and in other periods it was relocated to other parts of Iran has been transferred. In periods also, terrorist attacks have intensified in several regions of the country over a period of time; therefore, this research investigates the answers to the following questions: “What spatial pattern has the terrorist attacks in Iran followed”?  and “what is the difference between how to distribute the attacks of different terrorist groups and their methods”?

    Methodology

    The method used in this research is quantitative and using data from reputable global databases on terrorist attacks in Iran. also, Spatial distribution maps based on location-based data have been used to better understand the issues.

    Findings

    The first long wave of terrorist attacks in Iran began immediately after the victory of the Islamic Revolution and will continue until the end of 1982. During this 4 year period, the biggest and most intense terrorist attacks take place. During this period, the widespread and simultaneous activity of anti-government terrorist groups and ethnic separatist terrorist groups will intensify terrorist attacks in Iran. The 267 terrorist attacks recorded in these four years are almost equal to half of the total terrorist attacks of the last 40 years. Spatially, this wave of terrorist attacks has been concentrated in Tehran and major cities and boundary regions in the northwest and southwest of Iran. Assessing the distribution of terrorist attacks during this period shows that attacks by anti-government terrorist groups follow a hierarchical distribution, whereas the attacks of separatist terrorist groups have followed the pattern of proximity or contagious diffusion.The second long wave is related to terrorist attacks between 1990 and 1994. This wave of terrorist attacks in Iran coincides with the end of the Iran-Iraq war. In this wave of terrorist attacks, mainly anti-government groups are active who sent troops from abroad to carry out terrorist attacks inside Iran. During this period, the terrorist attacks of the separatist groups in the western and southwestern provinces of Iran will be significantly reduced compared to the previous wave. However, terrorist attacks in Sistan and Baluchestan province begin with considerable intensity and are largely affected by the Proximity contagion of terrorist and extremist groups in Indian subcontinent.  The pattern of terrorist attacks in this period is mainly hierarchical due to the activity of anti-government terrorist groups. During this period, terrorists mainly used the bombing method in their attacks. The focus of terrorist attacks is spatially in Tehran and the centers of major provinces. The third long wave of terrorist attacks began in 2005 and will continue until 2014. This period coincides with the intense activity of separatist terrorist groups with a religious approach in the South-East regions of Iran. So that in this wave, Sistan and Baluchestan province has the highest frequency of terrorist attacks in Iran. Also, the activities of terrorist groups in Khuzestan, Kurdistan and West Azerbaijan provinces increase significantly compared to the previous period. A study of the spatial distribution of terrorist attacks shows that these attacks are affected by the proximity diffusion inside and outside the State. In this wave, the instrument and methods used by terrorists change in accordance with and under the influence of international religious terrorism in the South-East of the State, and terrorists use unconventional methods such as suicide attacks. In addition to these three major waves of terrorist attacks in Iran, two shorter and less intense waves of other terrorist attacks have also occurred in Iran. The first short wave of terrorist attacks takes place from 1998 to 2000. This short wave of terrorist attacks is in fact a continuation of the long wave from 1990 to 1994, which follows the same pattern in terms of the type of terrorist groups and the geography of the attacks. The second short wave of terrorist attacks took place from 2015 to 2018. This short wave of terrorist attacks is also located along the long wave of 2005 to 2013. With the difference that in this period, International terrorist groups, specifically ISIS, attacks in Iran. In this short wave, the main attacks took place in the boundary regions of Iran in of Sistan and Baluchestan, West Azerbaijan, Khuzestan and Kurdistan provinces.Almost all terrorist attacks in Iran between 1978 and 2018 were carried out by two groups of terrorist groups. First, there are anti-government terrorist groups that carried out terrorist acts with the aim of overthrowing the ruling political system and changing the government. The places and spaces that these groups targeted were mainly located in large and important cities of Iran. Anti-government groups planned and carried out their attacks first in Tehran and then in the provincial capitals and metropolises. Therefore, the distribution of terrorist attacks in these terrorist groups has been done hierarchically from a geographically. These groups have been very influential in the first and second wave of terrorist attacks, but gradually and with the strengthening of the political and security system of state, the intensity of this group and their ability to attack has been greatly reduced.The second type of terrorist group includes groups with separatist goals. These groups are active in ethnic and religious areas around of state that are not complete homogeneity with the central government. Separatist groups have been very active in the first and third waves of terrorist attacks in Iran. A noteworthy point about these groups is the spatial and geographical as well as organizational connection of some of them with terrorist organizations active in neighboring countries. Also, these groups have spatial and organizational pursuits outside the country. Therefore, the pattern of diffusion the attacks of these terrorist groups from the geographical point of view is proximity and contagion

    Keywords: terrorism, Terrorist Attacks, Iran, Spatial-Temporal Pattern
  • Majid Rasouli *, Gholamreza Bolandian, Yasser Kanani Pages 176-206
    Introduction

    The Curbing and finally of the eradicating the real extremist terrorist of organizations is an urgent need today. But this is only the first step and part of a bigger effort. Problems with a universal nature and deep of roots must be properly understood. In addition, genuine of global cooperation is needed to combat these phenomena. Among the various regions of the of world, especially the African continent, more than any other region, it is struggling with the phenomenon of terrorism and extremism. The rise of the Taliban, Bokou Haram, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, ISIS, Ansar al-Sharia, and many other terrorist and extremist groups in the region is a testament to this claim. The causes of terrorism in the African region can be traced to a variety of contexts, including political, social, economic, and cultural. For a long of time, various groups and currents in this region of the world have redefined their identities in the direction of terrorist and extremist behaviors. Adoption of Resolution A / 68 / L.31 on December 10, 2013, entitled "The World of Against Violence and Extremism" at the UN General Assembly, at the suggestion of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was adopted by a unanimous vote of the representatives of 190 countries without opposition. It shows how much the international community feels threatened by this phenomenon. On the other hand, in providing a solution to curb extremism, given the negative mental history of African countries, the role of Wahhabism and neo-Salafis in creating insecurity on the continent and the spread of sectarian wars and challenging religious concepts such as jihad and the famous And the prohibition of denial, which has greatly expanded over the years; History of Iranian rule in East Africa over the past of thousand years; As a symbol of influencing the people of Africa, it can be considered by scholars and the formation of the Shiraz Empire in the islands of East Africa, especially Zanzibar, is an example of the transmission of political thought in the form of concepts such as the of Shah; Minister School and dozens of other words are used today in the Swahili language.

    Methodology

    The research method is documentary, analytical and survey. Based on the main research topic (the impact of Wahhabi neo-Salafi ideology on extremist currents in Africa) while reviewing the characteristics of Wahhabi neo-Salafi ideology, data from theoretical studies and scientific, religious and executive plans and documented reports of relevant organizations The basic information was collected and classified. Due to the fact that the ideology of neo-Salafism has systemic and integrated effects and concepts, the Demethel technique was used to determine the cause-and-effect relationships between the variables of extreme currents. The Demetel technique was introduced by Fonetla and Gabus in 1971. The purpose of the Demetel technique is to identify the pattern of causal relationships between a set of criteria. This technique scores the intensity of communication in a scoring manner, explores their critical feedback, and accepts non-transferable relationships. The basis of the DEMATEL method is based on the assumption that a system contains a set of criteria {C = {c1, c2,… cn and the pairwise comparison of the relationships between them can be modeled by mathematical equations. This technique is for constructing and analyzing structural models related to complex causal relationships between the factors of an issue.

    Result and Discussion

    The study was conducted based on 22 criteria and indicators according to Table (1). The importance of the indicators (J_i + R_i) and the relationship between the criteria (J_i-R_i) are determined. If J_i-R_i> 0 the relevant criterion is effective and if J_i-R_i <0 the relevant criterion is effective. The table above shows D_i + R_i and J_i-R_i. Figure (1) shows the importance and effectiveness between the criteria. The horizontal vector (J + R) is the amount of influence of the desired factor in the system. In other words, the higher the J + R factor, the more it interacts with other system factors. Variables such as ideology of elimination, interventions of UN and international institutions, cultural poverty and ideology of African Muslims, government inefficiency, anti-apartheid movement to combat racism, etc. in the region show high interaction and strong systemic relationship with other variables. On the other hand, as can be seen, the vertical vector (J - R) shows the influence of each factor. The variables of cultural poverty and ideology of African Muslims, economic marginalization, elimination ideology, French intervention as the Francophone Union, relative and absolute deprivation, social movement to counter the culture of colonialism and decolonization, etc. are the reasons for this systemic model. To be. Factors such as the lack of coherent activity of the Islamic Awakening, the negative view of the new African generation of Western colonialism, structural weakness in the logarithmic index and its significant difference with other parts of the world, lack of sufficient income, etc. are shown as disabilities. In general, if J - R is positive, the variable is a causal variable, and if it is negative, it is a disability.

    Conclusion

    Wahhabi tools in of Mecca and Medina have been teaching circles in the Holy Mosque and the Prophet's Mosque, and this traditional method of education is still followed by Wahhabi muftis and African students. On the other hand, neo-Salafi movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliated networks recruited students and elites from African Muslim countries in the form of new universities and educational centers, and by modeling the Western educational structure on educating Islamic students and drawing the foundations of Islamic fundamentalism. , Turned. Wahhabis and Salafists now use both traditional and modern teaching methods, and with all their tools, whether in a mosque, a university, or a jurisprudential center, spread Wahhabism in Africa and influence among the poor and needy. Take. The ideology of Wahhabism, which has its of organizational and financial roots in of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar, has today expanded its political diplomacy to the African continent by establishing development funds and charitable foundations in Africa invests heavily in education, health and charity. Saudi Arabia, whose financial support for takfiri and terrorist groups has been revealed to the world and is a major sponsor of takfiri terrorism, has sought to break out of global isolation by invading Yemen and forming a coalition of Arab states, bribing African leaders and supporting their leaders. The Republic has put the African mercenary on its agenda and is engaged in international recruitment by attending joint meetings with African Union leaders by distributing oil dollars. Leverage Kuwait: Kuwait Development Fund and Saudi Leverage: Wahhabi and Saudi universities. The African continent for a variety of reasons, including various software and hardware weaknesses, including economic backwardness, political instability, social inequality, and foreign interventions that benefit only from insecurity and instability. They do not see, it has now become a paradise for extremist groups and violent and terrifying terrorists. However, the fight against the ominous phenomenon of extremism and terrorism has not only led to the use of hardware and military methods, which the Western powers use as a strategy to repel terrorism in the region, but also so far. The eradication of terrorism has not taken place in this part of the world, but has had the opposite effect and has led to the increasing recruitment of terrorist groups in African countries. Now, with the above-mentioned descriptions, considering the causes and grounds for the growth of terrorism, which were explained in the above lines, it seems that carrying out structural reforms, both in the field of economy and politics, and social development in the long run, is one of the principled solutions. To curb terrorism and extremism on the Black Continent, as it can have a much deeper and more lasting impact on the eradication of terrorism in Africa. Also, poverty alleviation, laying the groundwork for sustainable development, establishing local interactions between the leaders of the groups involved and the established governments, responding to local priorities to motivate and ensure local participation, and eliminating ethnic and religious discontent. It can be another effective tool to prevent extremism and violent movements on the African continent. In addition, another effective solution is to use the capabilities of moderate Islamist groups to use their historical capacities and cultural commonalities to help establish, promote and stabilize the peace process in the region.

    Keywords: Wahhabi neo-Salafism, extremist currents, The African Continent
  • Davood Karimipour * Pages 207-244
    Introduction

    The motivation to provide security and maintain territorial integrity is one of the most important dimensions of Russia's geo-economic behavior. Geopoliticians believe that the modern Russian Empire will face three separate border regions. Caucasus and Central Asia, Siberia and Western Europe. In other words, Russia to be able to revive its modern empire, it must be able to play an active role in these three vital regions. In the following, the article will analyze the Russian foreign policy toward Western Europe through geo-economic approach.

    Methodology

    The present article is done Through Instrumental Case Study method, and Data collected based on the library one.

    Result and Discussion

    In dealing with Germany, Moscow has always considered the variable of its geographical location as a fundamental principle in its foreign policy. This variable has in fact led to Russia having the best relations with Germany. On the other hand, geo-cultural relations with France and Italy have, over the years, strengthened confidence in Moscow in these countries and affected Russia's geo-economic action. However, hostile relations with the United Kingdom have not prevented Moscow from developing economic cooperation with the United Kingdom. Russia is trying, with the help of economic factors, to reduce the level and intensity of British influence on anti-Russian geo-economic equations.

    Conclusion

    The findings show that Russia's geo-economic action towards Western Europe has been redefined in recent years, and while the main roots of the action in the past were geo-cultural motivations, but inspired by Political variables, todays the geopolitical element plays an organizing role in Moscow's interaction with the four European powers. Differences in the views to and relations with these countries, on the one hand, and their growing need for energy, will cause Russia's foreign policy to require new geo-economic dynamics in the coming years.

    Keywords: Russia, Foreign Relations, Geo-economy, Western Europe
  • Hashem Aghazadeh, Mesbah Seivandian, Amir Salar Vanaki * Pages 245-268
    Introduction

    National competitiveness as an important economic goal in the context of globalization has been considered by many policymakers around the world. In the Iran, national competitiveness has been considered by officials and the government of men, so that achieving Iran's top economic, scientific, and technological position among the countries, especially among the countries of Southwest Asia, is one of the most important goals in the 20-Year Vision Document. Therefore, providing a framework for identifying and prioritizing factors that help improve Iran's competitiveness can be effective in achieving this goal.

    Methodolog:

    This study intends to provide a new framework based on the Global Competitiveness Index to prioritize the competitiveness pillars to increase the national competitiveness of Iran and determine the benchmark countries. This framework is implemented in three stages. The countries of the world are first clustered on the basis of competitive pillars using the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm to distinguish the countries that are more similar in terms of national competitiveness. The competitiveness pillars in each cluster are then weighted using the CCSD weighting method. The weights obtained indicate the importance and priority of competitive factors. Finally, the WASPAS method is used to rank the countries in each cluster. These rankings are used to identify benchmark countries in each cluster.

    Results and Discussion

    Based on the results of this study, the countries of the world were first classified into three clusters. Clusters 1, 2 and 3 represent the developing, least developed, and the developed countries, respectively. After clustering the countries, competitive pillars were weighed using the CCSD weighting method. Accordingly, the labor market in cluster 1, the product market in cluster 2, and macroeconomic stability in cluster 3 had the highest weights. The higher the weight of a pillar, the higher its importance and priority in terms of competitiveness. For the Iran, labor market, macroeconomic stability and infrastructures were the most important competitiveness factors, respectively. Finally, the countries of each cluster were ranked using the WASPAS method. Latvia, Thailand, and Cyprus in cluster 1, Namibia, Kenya, and Macedonia in cluster 2, and Singapore, United States and Switzerland were top three ranked countries. Iran, with a rank of 58, is among the last countries in cluster 1 in this ranking. Latvia, Thailand, and Cyprus, which have the highest rankings in Cluster 1, can be used as benchmark countries for Iran.

    Conclusions

     National competitiveness has become the main focus of policymakers and governments. Therefore, in this study, a framework based on national competitiveness index was presented to determine the national competitiveness priorities as well as benchmark countries for Iran. In this framework, the countries of the world were first clustered based on competitive pillars using fuzzy c-means algorithm. Competitive columns were then weighed in each cluster using CCSD method. Finally, the countries of each cluster were ranked using the WASPAS method. Based on the proposed framework, competitive factors and priorities as well as benchmark countries for the Iran were determined.

    Keywords: Vision Document, global competitiveness, Clustering, weighting, Ranking
  • Arash Reisinezhad * Pages 269-306
    Introduction

    While much ink has been spilled to Iran's regional policy, the majority of these analyses, either intuitively or deliberately, build their explanation on the so-called ‘Persian-Shia offensive intentions’. Conversely, the present paper seeks the roots of Iran's regional policy in its specific geography and history. From this perspective, Iran’s regional policy is inseparable from its geopolitical strategies. To shed light on these strategies, the paper begins with the rise of the Persian Achaemenid until the establishment of the Islamic Republic, focusing on major driving forces behind Iran’s regional policy and strategies. The paper elaborates on a foundational concept of ‘strategic loneliness’, as Iran’s permanent feature, by highlighting the country’s curse of geography and its long- standing historical insecurity. In following, it shows the consequential impact of Iran’s strategic loneliness for the country’s non-state foreign policymaking strategic connections with military non-state actors—in the containment of its regional enemies. The paper ultimately argues that while this policy has kept Iran’s national integrity and security while entrapped the country in a durable ‘geopolitical predicament’ and deepened regional crisis in the Middle East

    Methodology

    The present paper engages intimately with Iran’s connections with its proxies through adopting an ‘analytical process-tracing narrative.’ The strength of this narrative lies in its potential to generate a conceptual framework organically and incrementally along the unifying theme. As Alexander George and Andrew Bennett argue, analytical process-tracing is a tool in extrapolating a case study’s “explanation into a generalization.” Process tracing will allow me to capture the dynamics of change and the causal mechanisms behind these changes within the evolution of the subject under study. Put differently, in the analytical process-tracing an otherwise atheoretical narrative presented “in the form of a chronicle that purports to throw light on how an event came about” is embedded into “an analytical causal explanation couched in explicit theoretical terms.”

    Result and Discussion

    Iran’s specific geography and historical insecurity are integral elements and dimensions of regional policy and strategy. In addition to its geostrategic location and geographical proximity to the threat sources, Iran’s geographical vulnerability and its lack of natural defense impediments have shaped the country’s fate of territorial occupation and military encirclement for more than twenty-five centuries. This fact has nourished and galvanized Iran’s historical insecurity. The final product is Iran’s strategic loneliness. For a country with a deep sense of greatness, Iran’s strategic loneliness pushes the country to take a dynamic geopolitical strategy—namely, non-state foreign policy—to preserve its national security and territorial integrity. Indeed, the very logic of geography and history reveals the fact that Iran’s ultimate deterrence capabilities have been mainly predicated on its ability for the external power projection (Reisinezhad, 2016). Nonetheless, the lack of regional collective security institutions and pact(s) has trembled the credibility of this geopolitical strategy. Although Iran’s non-state foreign policy has been partially effective in keeping the country’s security safe, it has weakened Iran’s financial sources and, more significantly, entrapped the country in a durable offensive-defensive complex. It is Iran’s durable geopolitical predicament. Iran’s specific geography and history have crucially shaped its geopolitical strategy. However, it should be important to disentangle the argument from geographical and historical ‘determinism’. At first glance, putting emphasis on these two factors opens door for fatalism while ignores human agency. Geography and history by no means determine state’s approaches to use military force and regional strategies. In reality, human agency matters since it is men who decide and take action. There are still historical instances wherein men overcame the dictates of geography and unchained historical patterns. Nevertheless, “in the long run, those who are working in harmony with environmental influences will triumph over those who strive against them” (Parker and Mackinder, 1982: 121). Indeed, geography and historical trends limit human choices by constraining or instigating states’ actions. To be more precise, geography and history provides a framework within which geopolitical strategy is formulated and implemented. They set contours on which trajectory and path is achievable and which is not. As Robert D. Kaplan cogently argues, “the more we remain preoccupied with Iran’s specific geography and history have crucially shaped its geopolitical strategy. However, it should be important to disentangle the argument from geographical and historical ‘determinism’. At first glance, putting emphasis on these two factors opens door for fatalism while ignores human agency. Geography and history by no means determine state’s approaches to use military force and regional strategies. In reality, human agency matters since it is men who decide and take action. There are still historical instances wherein men overcame the dictates of geography and unchained historical patterns. Nevertheless, “in the long run, those who are working in harmony with environmental influences will triumph over those who strive against them” (Parker and Mackinder, 1982: 121). Indeed, geography and historical trends limit human choices by constraining or instigating states’ actions. To be more precise, geography and history provides a framework within which geopolitical strategy is formulated and implemented. They set contours on which trajectory and path is achievable and which is not. As Robert D. Kaplan cogently argues, “the more we remain preoccupied with current events, the more that individuals and their choices matter; but the more we look out over the span of the centuries, the more that geography plays a role (Kaplan, 2012: 28). Therefore, a balance between geography and history, on the one side, and the decisions and actions of men, on the other side, matter for a deeper analysis of Iran’s regional policy. In short, geography and history imprison Iranian leaders and delimit, rather than determine, their choices and opportunities for regional maneuver. The ideas emerge and vanish, the leaders are born and then die; but what remains durably is Iran’s geography and history!

    Conclusion

    For more than half century, Iran’s connections with its proxies have been the country’s pivotal geopolitical strategy crafted to contain regional and global threats. In contrast to the mainstream view, this strategy is rooted less in Iran’s revolutionary ideology rather than its specific geography and history. The paper shows that Iran’s strategic loneliness is a very historical product of its specific geography and history. It also argued how Iran’s geopolitical strategy has intensified its geopolitical predicament and entrapped the country in the offensive-defensive complex. Within this situation, regional cooperation in several domains, particularly the conflict resolution processes, is vital and necessary for Iran’s regional policy. The establishment of a path-dependent bilateral or multilateral security institution(s) with regional states would be crucial for the stability of the Middle East. As the regional tensions spiraling out of control, building comprehensive collective security with tripartite power centers of Tehran-Ankara-Riyadh would deescalate geopolitical competition in the Middle East.While it is a major driving force for the country’s power projection beyond its borders, strategic loneliness sets Iran’s center of gravity within its internal territory. Relying on the inside shows that Iran’s center of gravity has predicated on ‘state-society relation’; rather than on strategic alliance with whether the Great Powers or non-state actors. In other words, Iran’s strategic loneliness shows intrinsic and independent foundations of Iran’s national security. Within this context, popular support and legitimacy are the most crucial and vital assets for a country whose borders have been historically bloody frontier zone. It was this very fact ignored by the last Shah of Iran.

    Keywords: Geopolitical Strategy, Strategic Loneliness, Historical Insecurity, Non-State Foreign Policy, Geopolitical Predicament