نشریه امنیت ملی
پیاپی 45 (پاییز 1401)

Since the advent of the mobile data network, Iran has more than 35 million social media users. Developing social media among the general public (with a penetration rate of 49% in Iran) and their diverse functions can be the starting point for using social sensing. In this case, users provide data, like a sensor, for analysis. One of the applications of social sensing is crisis management. To achieve this goal, big data collection as a defense system can reduce the human, economic and social costs of crises and events, and can be used as a tool to raise situational awareness and enhance national security. The data set of the present study was collected based on the crawling and text mining of verbal violence in one million and four hundred thousand general Persian channels of Telegram messenger in 1397 SH and after refinement, it was modeled based on the time series of the moving average. To identify crisis signals in this model, the oscillator following the momentum trend (which is mostly used in financial analyses) and the moving average of divergence convergence (MACD) are analyzed. This is the first time in the computational social sciences that this tool has been used to predict security crises and political events and to allow government surveillance.The research findings confirm that at least six social protest in the country in 1397 SH were identifiable and manageable before the event. In addition, a system that can use such analyses in social media big data in real-time would have the necessary efficiency to issue an early warning and to measure the political and security risks of society.

In the structure of the armed forces of all countries of the world, the duty forces with characteristics such as youthful spirit, motivation, vitality, expertise, creativity, etc. are the main pioneers of excellence and progress of countries in the military, defense and security fields. Recruiting and employing soldiers based on global, national, and ideological values ​​plays an indispensable role in the implementation of security and defense plans at the national and transnational levels. One of the richest sources for extracting concepts, categories and themes to provide a model for the supply and use of conscription in the armed forces is the Supreme Leader's discourse that the relevant resources are available in the form of writings and software of the province. In this content analysis method, the Supreme Leader's orders in providing and using task force in Maxqda software are analyzed by content analysis method (data theory theory) and finally by extracting concepts and categories on the basis of concepts and categories. The basis of macro-managerial dimensions, ie goals, doctrine and policies were presented. The validity of the research questionnaire was calculated based on the content validity ratio (CVR) of the selected categories, which was 0.47 and the reliability of the questionnaire was measured by Cronbach's Alpha method, which was 0.98, which indicates the validity and The reliability of the questionnaire. The general conclusion of the research is that the macro strategies of providing and using the task force in the structure of the armed forces are based on the discourse of Velayat-e-Faqih based on personality, belief, scientific, knowledge, skill, military, security, cultural and revolutionary characteristics.

The strategic position of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region and the international system and the failure of the domination system in the field of severe and costly threats has changed the strategy of the enemies of the Islamic system and the use of existing capacities in cyberspace to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran.  Cybersecurity is one of the components of national security that should be seriously considered and evaluated on an ongoing basis. Proper assessment of cyber security identifies the strengths and weaknesses of countries in various fields and by planning and providing the necessary strategies, ultimately leads to its promotion. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to achieve a native model of cyber security assessment of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Based on the orders and measures of the Supreme Leader, upstream documents in the field of cyber and documents of global institutions and using the clustering technique in content analysis and Delphi method, five concepts of governance, legal, empowerment and capacity Construction, defense-security and socio-cultural were identified as the main dimensions of the cyber security assessment model and then the components and stakeholders of each of these dimensions were extracted and finally the cyber security assessment model of the Islamic Republic of Iran was presented after approval by cyber experts.

the aim of the present study was to prepare a scale for measuring the risk of young people in media-influenced crime and to determine its effect on the degree of sustainability in delinquency. The study is a survey and the statistical population is young professional offenders between 18-35 years old. The statistical population of the study includes criminals with a history of high-risk crimes (19,149 people) who based on Cochran's formula, the sample size of 376 people was determined and selected by simple sampling. To compile the scale, three questionnaires of youth risk-taking, survey of high-risk youth behavior and aggressive behavior were used as a source. Four parameters of excitement, rebellion, recklessness, and criminalization with aggressive behavior were designed. Scientific validity of the scale was performed using "content validity", "structural validity". The Kaiser-Mir-Olkin sampling adequacy test was statistically significant and the Bartlett sphericity test was statistically significant. Findings of factor analysis confirmed the results of exploratory factor analysis based on the fact that this scale is four factors and the obtained model fit with the research data. Cronbach's alpha for the scale of 0.70, the parameter of "excitement in criminality" 0.75, "recklessness in criminality" 0.87, "criminality with aggressive behavior" 0.79 and "rebellion in criminality" 83 / 0 was calculated which indicates the validity and validity of the scale. Findings from one-sample t-test and symptom test showed that all four parameters were effective on stability in delinquency of young professional offenders and the results of Friedman test showed that excitement was the highest in criminalization and the tendency to criminalize with aggressive behavior was the lowest. It has an effect on sustainability in delinquency of young professional offenders.

revolutionary developments in Egypt that led to the overthrow of the “Mubarak government” and the establishment of the “Muslim Brotherhood” was so fascinating that many political analysts referred to it as the beginning of the transformation of the Islamic world. However, the emergence of a social or quasi-social wave known as the "Rebellion Movement" led to an internal crisis in this popular uprising. With the emergence of this wave and the mentioned internal challenge, the army entered the scene supporting the will of its people at first but at the end the world powers, led by the United States, were able to Seize and mislead the "Islamic Awakening" movement in this country in line with their colonial goal. The purpose of this article is pathologizing the “Islamic Awakening” movement in Egypt employing a mixed method (case study) in the time domain of this uprising and with an exploratory-explanatory approach through the use of descriptive and inferential statistics (factor analysis) using a statistical population of forty people. This article tries to answer this question: What were the most important factors that caused deviation and harm and social frustration in the process of the Islamic Awakening in Egypt? Based on the findings of this study, the most important detrimental factors to the process of “Islamic awakening” in Egypt were related to the military and security area, ideology, political, economic, regional and social and cultural level and trans-regional level, respectively.

Identification of Shia, on the basis of tangible components such as population growth, power-sharing, socio-religious networking, and Shia geopolitics, has granted Shiites exceptional potential and capability as influential parties in international affairs. In this regard, given the numerous threats and challenges the Shia world is faced with, it appears that the importance of institutionalization and networking has gained more prominence than before in order to maintain, improve, and strengthen the genuine identification of Shia (the problem). Now, what steps can be taken in promotion of the condition of Shiites in four subsystems? (The question). With a descriptive, analytic, quantitative and qualitative approach, the current study attempts to investigate the current challenges and opportunities of Shiites and to present a conceptual and practical model of social Shia network in order to maintain its coherence. This is also important given the necessity of social institutionalization and political influence of Shia to increase the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this respect, the most significant goal is to foster and extent Shia social networking, resolve the challenges and threats against Shiites and to strengthen their identity. Finally, through such measurements taken, the security of the Islamic Republic of Iran will extent. (The finding).

One of the obstacles to achieving the goals of Iran's 20-year vision plan is the actions of the ISIS in Iraq as a member of the Resistance Front. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to identify ISIL's behavior patterns in Iraq until 2025. The findings of this research based on analytical-pragmatic and futuristic research indicate that the contradictory performance of ISIS with its stated aims (assassination and excommunication against the state-building) did not conform to the specific social and political realities of Iraq. The terrorist group does not seek to build the political and social structures of the "state" or "caliphate". Incomplete state-building is the specific function of the ISIS Takfiri group to further bolster Islamophobia. These two patterns of behavior (incomplete state-building and terror and excommunication) are exactly in line with the goals of Western powers to contain "political Islam" by "radical Islam". In the light of ISIL's behavior patterns, it is impossible for ISIL to create a caliphate in Iraq until 2025 due to internal developments and support from the resistance front. And possible Scenario is the geopolitical containment of the Resistance Front (Iran, Iraq, etc.) due to the creation of secret networks and terror.

The present article analyzes the discourse of national solidarity in the era of Holy defense. To doing this, the characteristics of the national solidarity discourse in the era of Holy defense have been identified. In this study, reviewing the theoretical foundations of national solidarity as one of the most important requirements of achieving sustainable national security, and nationalism and its critique, a series of assumptions were written to formulate the conceptual framework of the present study. Findings show that the imposed war caused the competition for political power among the political elites to be largely eliminated by the atmosphere of Holy defense and protection of the country from foreign invasion and national solidarity between different ethnic groups be strengthened. It was also derived from a discursive atmosphere. This discourse was formed against the rival discourse of Iranian nationalism and provided the basis for national solidarity during the holy defense. Also, Imam Khomeini was the main factor in creating national solidarity during the holy defense. Accordingly, the master signifier of the discourse governing national solidarity in the era of Holy defense has been unity.

The US actions in the forms of soft, hard and combined arms warfare as well as investment in these fields during the years after the Islamic Revolution,has faced the Islamic Republic of Iran with major threats and also with many political,security,economical and social charges.Elaborating the current US government's scenarios priority can help to avoid surprising the I.R.Iran against the US government possible hard policies. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to explain and analyze US strategies in Biden administration against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The research findings have been collected through a "Descriptive-Analytical" approach and in an applied-developmental manner, and the obtained data have been analyzed in pre-designed analytical tables on the applicative conditions for each strategy. The results of this study show that the United States does not seek direct military action against Iran, but actions such as continuation of economic sanctions, securing Iran issue, reducing domestic legitimacy and etc. will be among US possible scenarios and strategies against the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2022.