فصلنامه دانش سرمایه گذاری
پیاپی 47 (پاییز 1402)

The purpose of this descriptive-correlational applied study was to provide a customer portfolio management (CPM) model to improve customer relationship management (CRM). The statistical population in the qualitative section included 22 insurance executives and professors who were selected by saturation and purposive sampling and in the quantitative section included all insurance customers in Tehran province from which 384 people were randomly selected by Cochran's formula. Data were collected in the qualitative section using interviews and in the quantitative section using questionnaires. The validity of the questionnaires was confirmed by expert opinions and their reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha. Qualitative content analysis and structural equations with PLS2 software were used to analyze the data. The results showed that the dimensions of the model included customer motivation, customer value, organizational factors, customer experience, customer loyalty, and customer mental image and the model had a good fit.

Social capital is a concept that expresses the quantity and quality of human relations in society. High social capital reduces exchange costs, increases the possibility of cooperation and activities with mutual benefits, and the severity of problems that lead to market failure, so the purpose of this study is to explain the appropriate pattern of risk-taking power of stock market investors based on capital. Social is using the analytical factor analysis approach and structural equation modeling. This research is applied in terms of purpose, applied research and is in the category of causal research. The research community includes experts and investors to identify indicators from Questionnaire 28. A question was used which, after confirming the validity and reliability, was used to collect the data. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis using SPSS and PLS software has been used to analyze the data. According to the data analysis, the findings and statistical information of this study show that seven after social capital sub-factors have a positive and significant effect on investor risk-taking, so it can be concluded between social capital and risk-taking. There is a strong relationship between investors, which is in line with the results of the present study.

This paper aimed to identifying and prioritizing the factors causing bankruptcy in Iranian firms. The sample included 191 judges, attorneys-at-law, and licensed justice ministry professionals in accounting and auditing selected using random sampling. The questionnaire used in this research was finalized using the Delphi method and using 15 professors in the subject. One-sample t-test, regression test and hierarchical analysis were used to test the research hypotheses The results showed that five factors of managrial errors, criminal acts, environmental crises, accounting errors, and the accident factor are major causes of bankruptcy in Iranian firms, with managerial errors being the most important priority. Therefore, using modern management techniques at different levels of a firm will be useful in preventing managerial errors in decision making and rescue firms from bankruptcy.

In the capital structure, there is a necessity and thematic importance for the scientific expression of the impact of strategy and capital structure on the company's cash flows. Tehran securities and exchange in the period 2013 to 2018, which were extracted and analyzed as a sample by the method of systematic deletion of information of 139 companies. The statistical method used is the combined data method and the regression models were fitted with Eviews software. The results of hypothesis testing show that cost leadership and differentiation strategies have a significant effect on different types of cash flows by considering capital structures.

Corporate health is a topic that is related to the continuity of activity, bankruptcy and financial helplessness. Therefore, the purpose of this study is the effect of corporate governance structures and shareholder rights on the health of companies in the Iranian capital market. To measure the health of companies, the company's resilience index has been used. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of data collection methods, is a descriptive-analytical survey based on the structural modeling approach. The statistical population of the study is the managers and financial experts of the companies surveyed and a standard questionnaire was used to collect data. In this study, the causal relationship between (structures of corporate governance culture) and corporate health was predicted. The results showed that among the constructs of corporate governance culture, the effectiveness of internal controls, board of directors, service compensation committee and disclosure and transparency have a significant impact on company health. Therefore, the existence of an audit committee, the existence of a risk management committee and the protection of shareholders' rights do not have a significant impact on the health of companies. Hence, the effectiveness of internal controls, the board of directors, the service compensation committee, and disclosure and transparency can enhance the health of companies

Determining the appropriate strategy for buying or selling in the foreign exchange market is very important for companies to cover exchange rate fluctuations against the national currency. This study proposes a new approach based on genetic algorithms and support vector machines for trading in the foreign exchange market.In this research, a new algorithm with the ability to generate technical rules for investment based on forecast certainty is presented. For prediction, a combination of the Combined Support Vector Machine (HSVM) algorithm for classifying the market into three different classes (uptrend, downtrend, sideway) and a dynamic genetic algorithm for optimizing trading rules based on several technical indicators Different has been used. Rials-dollar pair data is used as training and test data for the period between 1392 and 1398. The proposed architecture for machine learning, as well as the implementation and study of the proposed trading system are fully described. The research shows promising results during the test period in which the return on investment was 129%.

Investors Sentiment about the future of capital markets can play an effective role on the market price trend and stock return and refer to the views of investors about the future of the capital market. This paper investigates the threshold effects of Investors Sentiment on stock return of firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange for the period of 15 Years (2005-2019), with construct Investors’ Sentimen index, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. The linearity test results indicate strongly nonlinear relationship among variables under consideration. Moreover, considering one transition function and one threshold parameter, as a two regime model, is sufficient to specification of nonlinear and threshold relationship among variables.The results indicate that threshold value for this firms is 71.34 and the estimated slope parameter is 0.32. The findings of this study indicate that in the first regime, investor sentiment effect is positively activated, increasing stock returns; however when their overconfidence sentiment exceeds some threshold, this effect becomes inverse in the secend regime for a high threshold level of market confidence and investor over-optimism.

Integration in different industries is very important and has many benefits at different economic and social levels. Given the vastness of the telecommunications industry, this industry is no exception and the integration of telecommunications infrastructure creates a lot of added value. But the interplay between tangible or intangible indicators has emerged that policymakers must consider them all. Our goal is to examine the integration of telecommunications infrastructure and to study its interactions with economic factors in order to measure the value of investment in this integration. In order to get the right result, the experts gathered the opinion of the industry using fuzzy Delphi method, and after the process, the effective factors were investigated and the key indicators to be considered and the impact of capital were identified. Implications for the integration of telecommunications technology infrastructures and whether they can serve as a driving force for achieving other factors are discussed and discussed. As a final conclusion, it is clear that if investment is made, steps will be taken to integrate telecommunication infrastructure to protect national, environmental, resource and urban beautification interests, and provide a platform for private sector investment. In addition to providing these items, the private sector can also benefit.

After financial crises in the world, vast amount of scientific literature created in financial fields of which must of them are based on theoretical model. Generally, financial institutes located in financial system where a part of the system does not work properly, the whole financial system affected and released to other financial sectors and in next step penetrated into real part of economy and final result is economy stagnations. This fact is a reason for measuring financial system crises to prevent crises occurrence in the societies. Systematic risk index considered as one of them. Systematic risk index obtained by leverage degree calculation (debt), market size, and marginal expected shortfall (MES) to model the factors affecting it. This study is looking for the best approach to measure the systemic risk with respect to different sort of approaches in the world. For choosing the best approach we must choose the minimum error of these approaches. The models that we used in this research are multivariant garch, a model proposed by Brownlees and Engel which called VCT, factor models and bivariant statistical models. The result clearly shows that VCT model has the minimum error between the others.

Forecasting the stock market in each period has been difficult and the value of stock trading has been affected by various factors. Among these factors have been the oil and gas sector, especially in countries that depend on the revenue from their sales. On the other hand, the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic has led to profound changes in both areas. Therefore, in this article, the relationship between oil prices and the Iranian stock market is examined with respect to the prevalence of the Corona pandemic. Understanding the behavior dynamics of the stock exchange value index can help to more accurately predict the future behavior of this variable. Accordingly, the main purpose of this paper is to analyze the asymmetric relationship between oil prices, as well as the simultaneous impact of the corona pandemic news and the rate of corona virus infection on the value of the Iranian stock exchange. In the present paper, nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) in the time period (1399: 05: 15-1398: 11: 30) has been used. The results show that in the long run, rising oil prices have a significant asymmetric effect on stock exchange value. On the other hand, in the short run, the rate of Covid-19 patients has a positive relationship without meaning and the Covid-19 media index has a negative relationship with meaning with the value of stock exchange trading.

 Risk is an inseparable part of the decision-making process in the organization. Managers 'and investors' decisions to increase return and wealth are made possible by reducing risk. Financial constraint also prevent funding for the desired investment.

we expect; Risk-taking variable have a significant impact on financial performance and this relationship is affected by the introduction of financial constraints on companies. The data used include a sample of 119 companies (952 years - company), during the years 2011 to 2018. In order to analyze the data and test the hypotheses, the pattern of fixed effects of multivariate linear regression by the combined data method has been used by Ives software.

The overall results of the hypotheses show that risk-taking has a significant effect on assets returns and Q-Tobin ratios. Also, the financial constraint variable has a significant effect on the relationship between risk-taking with assets return and Q-Tobin ratio.

Each person's behavior is the basis for making his decisions in the financial arena, and mistakes in those behaviors will have many consequences. Recognizing the behaviors and consequently the decisions and behaviors of the individual has an important role in providing solutions to correct existing deviations. in order to explain the model, the interview method and the approach based on grounded theorizing, and to select the interviewees, the snowball sampling method has been used. After conducting 19 interviews with stock market activists during 1397 to 1398, theoretical saturation was obtained. Then, the most effective causal factors were determined and ranked based on the opinions of experts and using Demetel technique and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), respectively.The extracted results were analyzed using Spss and Amos and showed that all biases have a direct and significant impact on investor decisions.

Sustainable Development has become a global concern among firms. Islamic particular attitude toward man and society, organizes economic activities have the most efficient and sustainable ,and they are less costly. considering the importance of the role of sustainable development and disclosure for activities by banks, this study presents a model for exposing sustainable development for the banking system in Iran. In order to present this model, the Delphi method has been used, which finally, this model has 4 dimensions and 63 components. Shannon entropy technique is also used to determine the importance at the level of each of the dimensions and components in the model. The results showed that the dimension of disclosure of environmental-Islamic activities has the most and the dimension of disclosure of general standards has the least importance in the proposed model. Also, the number of important components in Shannon entropy technique was evaluated 42 components.

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of CEO Power on Corporate Risk Taking using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM of listed Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. These Three dimensions Corporate Risk Taking in our tests :( Total Risk, Idiosyncratic Risk and Systematic Risk). For this purpose one hypotheses are developed and data on the 108 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange for the period of 1389 to 1396 were analyzed. This regression model using panel data with fixed effects approach and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), reviews and tests. The results showed that CEO Power has significantly negative impact on Corporate Risk Taking (Total Risk, Idiosyncratic Risk and Systematic Risk). Therefore, the research results indicate that the CEO power reduces Corporate Risk Taking.

The present study seeks to identify and rank the dimensions and components of the model of ethical foundations of accounting education and shareholder willingness based on the Confucius model. The present research is of developmental-applied type and is of descriptive-survey type and the data collection tool is a questionnaire. The study population consisted of university administrators, professors, and professors, whose views on the proposed dimensions and components were extracted from the theoretical foundations and background of the research, and finally included 12 experts. The level is saturated and purposeful. After distributing the questionnaire of experts and collecting research data, the results were performed based on fuzzy Delphi method and ranking using ANP software. Examining the background of the research and the theoretical foundations of the dimensions of the model were identified, which include ethical skills, ethical behavior, individual ethical foundations, binding ethical foundations, Confucius principles and the perspective of shareholders' desire (value). After identifying the dimensions, by examining the opinion of experts and their comments, the results with fuzzy Delphi analysis, the approved components are as follows: sensitivity, honesty, human dignity, sincerity and purity, etc. Examining the dimensions of the research, it can be stated that from the experts 'point of view, ethical skills have the first priority in comparison with other dimensions, as well as individual ethical foundations, binding ethical foundations, ethical behavior, perspective of shareholders' desire (value), The principles of Confucius are in the next priority. The components were also ranked.

The purpose of this study is to identify the key success factors of the BOT method in financing the country's service projects and to present an operational model. This research is applied in terms of purpose and survey in terms of explanatory nature. The research sample is 220 individuals and legal entities related to carrying out projects in this way. The required information was collected through a researcher-made questionnaire, considering the census method, and analyzed by modeling structural studies. The dependent variable "Success of BOT method" is measured using three indicators and the independent variable "Key factors" is measured through forty-one indicators. The results showed that the key effective factors in order of effectiveness are; Financial, public, market, technical, legal and institutional factors. Finally, by using the obtained results and the extractive operational model, suggestions have been presented in order to remove the existing obstacles and increase the success of applying this approach in the service-oriented sectors, especially in the field of sports in Iran.

This research in aimed at assessing and measuring systematic and unsystematic risks affecting petrochemicals listed on Tehran stock exchange with a financial-marketing approach in two stages to be analyzed and the analysis of the payment. In the first stage, quantitative assessment of systematic and unsystematic risks is filled with a financial approach. As a result of these calculations, it was found that the greatest risk to the stock returns of petrochemical companies threatens, due to the cultural and economic and political factors and technology and the internal factors have less effect on the risk of stock returns of petrochemical companies. In the second stage, it is measured qualitative (rating) systematic and unsystematic risk with marketing approach.

Due to the continuous cash flow of Open-End mutual funds, liquidity risk is the most important risk of this financial institution. The main challenge of managing the liquidity of these funds is to provide cash in the event of a crisis and to face redemption requests. Fund run and the pressure to finance and sell assets will transfer costs and possibly leave a portfolio of less liquid assets for the remaining investors.it is necessary to use liquidity management tools to control the repurchase pressure, share costs fairly and protect the interests of remaining investors.while reviewing and introducing common liquidity risk management tools of this industry in the world, the need to provide the possibility of using any of these tools for fixed income funds and stocks, the possibility of using any tool in normal and / or special conditions, and the necessity / non-necessity of approval of the use of the tool by the regulator before use, as the three key components of the use of these tools, has been deliberately fuzzily consulted by experts. After sending the questionnaire and during the two stages of the survey, a final agreement was reached by the experts on the use of Swing Pricing and Anti-Dilution Levy in any situation and at the discretion of fund managers and the use of Redemptions In-kind, Redemption Gates, and Suspension of Redemptions in special circumstances and with the approval of the regulator. No consensus was reached on the need to provide the use of Side Pockets.

The study of banking crises in the world over time shows that some of them are destructive. Institutional problems, economic and financial sanctions and even the spread of the Corona virus have significantly increased the likelihood of crisis in the country's banking system. The share of more than 80% of banks in financing financing investment in the country has doubled the importance of identifying the factors affecting the banking crisis. Banks are used. The present research is applied in terms of research method. Estimation of Bayesian averaging model and TVP_FAVAR in MATLAB 2021 software in 11-year period (2008-2019); it is going to happen. The sample is 10 banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Initially, 49 variables affecting the banking crisis were entered into the model and 12 non-fragile variables affecting the financial crisis were identified using the Bayesian averaging model approach. The output of the results shows that the banking crisis index in the Iranian economy is multifaceted because the variables related to monetary and financial sector policy makers affect it; The results of the TVPFAVAR model also show that the effect of variables affecting the banking crisis is generally positive and strong, and this effect is generally stronger in the long run than in the short run; As a result, in order to reduce the banking crisis, medical and discretionary policies can not prevent the occurrence of the banking crisis, and institutional and fundamental policies and infrastructures are needed.

In the present study, bankruptcy forecasting has been done in different time horizons based on the Black and Scholes pricing model. The statistical population of the study includes companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2014 to 2020 that 129 companies were considered as a statistical sample of the research. The research method is correlational and the statistical method used in this research is the combined data regression method. The results of testing the hypotheses have shown that corporate and market factors have a significant effect on the risk of bankruptcy of companies and in different time horizons, have different effects on the risk of bankruptcy. The results also indicate that bankruptcy forecasting based on the Black-Scholes model and using corporate and market factors can be done with an accuracy of more than %90. According to the results, some factors affect the risk of bankruptcy in the short term and others in the long term.

Integrated marketing communications can create added value for stakeholders through various communication channels between travel agencies and the exchange of information before, during and after the travel between employees, the company as well as customers. The purpose of this study is to design an integrated marketing model in the tourism and travel industry of Iran with a focus on travel services offices in Tehran. The research method of this research is applied-developmental and exploratory in nature and the data has been collected by mixed-exploratory method. the qualitative model was tested with the method of structural equations. The statistical population of the quantitative section includes experts and staff of travel services offices in Tehran. The sample size is 348 people by stratified random sampling. The results of the quality section were presented as a qualitative model in the separate article, but the results of the quantitative phase indicate the causal conditions affecting the integrated marketing communications of travel services offices including integrated analysis (customer, communication and financial analysis). Context conditions also include individual-technical context requirements (company DNA, strengths, competitiveness, human resource, processes, physical evidence, content management, knowledge and experience management) and intervening conditions including environmental conditions (Political, economic, social, cultural and biological issues and communication technology). The alignment of hardware and software for the optimal use of promotional mixed communication tools as an effective strategy in this field is confirmed and its consequences include purchasing and repurchasing and creating the value proposition of integrated marketing communications.

The current research is to present an applicable and suitable model for the financial resilience of entrepreneurial businesses with a risk management approach. This research aims to create a model to achieve and create the necessary platforms to create a culture of financial resilience in order to lead them to manage the risk of entrepreneurial businessesThe methodology used in this research is qualitative. in which the ground method of foundation data theory is used. that by using the opinions of subject matter experts and interviewing 10 experts in this field and using the snowball method until reaching the theoretical saturation stage in order to identify the effective factors in formulating the desired pattern and model of the research using open coding, central and selective has been discussed. In the end, the results of this research lead to the presentation of a model for financial resilience in entrepreneurial businesses, which has been developed and presented in the direction of financial resilience and risk management in entrepreneurial businesses, as well as the conceptual model of the research. From the results of the current research, the most important activities in the sectors such as designing discovery mechanisms and creating financial resilience of entrepreneurial businesses; redesigning financial resilience processes; Creation of creative innovation processes in financial resilience; Creating a culture of using new technologies and the desire to innovate in the implementation of financial resilience is in the direction of financial resilience.

Due to the importance of predicting economic variables, different models have been created to predict the future values of variables. In fact, economic models can be tested by checking the level of forecasting accuracy. The main purpose of this study is prediction of Iran interbank offered rate and Iran treasury exchange rate as interest rates indicators for facilitating interest rate risk management. Two econometric models including ARFIMA and ARIMA have been used for forecasting. Thus, the ARFIMA model considering long-term memory and the ARIMA model without considering long-term memory have been considered. The evaluation of the prediction accuracy of the two models using the monthly Iran interbank offered rates data and also the monthly Iran treasury exchange rates data shows that both the interbank offered rates data and the Islamic treasury bond rates data, ARIMA model has a better performance compared to ARFIMA model in predicting data.

The main purpose of the research is to investigate the impact of default risk on the risk of stock price fall in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In line with the main objective of the research, information was collected from the financial statements of companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period of 2009-2019. Multiple regression with panel data was used to test the hypotheses. The obtained results show a significant effect of the four criteria of default risk on the negative skewness of stock returns and the risk of stock price fall.The main purpose of the research is to investigate the impact of default risk on the risk of stock price fall in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In line with the main objective of the research, information was collected from the financial statements of companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period of 2009-2019. Multiple regression with panel data was used to test the hypotheses. The obtained results show a significant effect of the four criteria of default risk on the negative skewness of stock returns and the risk of stock price fall.

The purpose of this research is to provide a model to evaluate the performance and position of banks based on the innovation of financial technology services. The current research community was formed by university professors and experts as well as Central Bank managers and experts. In this research, the opinions of 13 experts were used using non-random judgment method. ‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬ The process of data analysis in two stages to identify the factors affecting the evaluation of the performance and position of banks based on the innovation of financial technology services, through the interview tool and using the theme analysis method, as well as the screening of factors through the questionnaire tool and the fuzzy Delphi method was performed. Based on this, in the stage of identifying the dimensions and components using theme analysis and during the stage of getting to know the data, 43 cases of speech evidence identified from the text of the interviews were labeled in the form of 40 primary codes. Next, the primary codes were categorized into 19 sub-themes and then a main theme. In the Delphi phase, all the components were approved by the experts and finally the research model was drawn.

Brand value is an important concept in doing business as well as scientific research; Because companies gain competitive advantage with the power of their brand. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of financial performance criteria on brand value in the automotive industry of Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, the variables of stock return, sales return, asset return, equity return and operating cash ratio were used as performance criteria and Kyotubin criterion was used as a variable expressing the brand value of the company. The results of this study, which was obtained from the financial data of 32 companies in the automotive industry during the years 1391 to 1398 and the multivariate regression method showed that the factors affecting brand value in the short term (this year) and next year are different and only stock return as a performance measure can Affect the brand value of this year and next year. These results indicate that in order to explain the brand value in the short and long term, not all company performance metrics have information content and stock returns have shown their role in explaining the company's brand value.Keywords: Brand Value, Performance Criteria, Automotive Industry

The main purpose of this study is to provide a model to explain the financial behavior of momentum and random investors. The research was conducted qualitatively with grounded theory technique. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews. The statistical population of the current research is active investors in the stock exchange in the period from 1399 to 1401. In this regard, 16 interviews with momentum investors and 8 interviews with random investors were conducted according to the research topic. Then, based on the systematic approach of Strauss and Corbin's theories, in three main steps of open coding, axial coding and selective coding, the financial behavior model of momentum and random investors was presented. The results of coding interviews with momentum investors have shown that the behavior of this group of investors has often been based on risk-return analysis and fundamental and technical analysis. Financial advisors are sometimes consulted, focusing on capital management and portfolio diversity. Although they sometimes engage in emotional behaviors, these behaviors are not predominant and they mostly try to behave rationally. While random investors, on the other hand, benefit less from these analyzes and consider only financial knowledge and investment literacy important. This group is more prone to emotional behaviors, especially mass behaviors.

Taxes play a key role in combining government revenues and can help governments achieve the three goals of resource allocation, revenue distribution, and economic stability. There are several factors that affect tax evasion, one of the most important of which is the openness of markets (financial freedom and freedom of investment). Therefore, in this study, the effect of financial freedoms and investment on tax evasion in the period 2000-2020 has been studied using the quantitative regression method. The results of model estimation show that higher monetary freedom (low inflation), financial freedom and investment freedom have negative, positive and negative effects on tax evasion, respectively. Also, the impact of property rights on tax evasion is negative and significant, and the guarantee of personal property by the government has reduced the rate of tax evasion. In addition, rule of law also has a significant negative impact on tax evasion. Because the rule of law is high, it increases people's confidence in the strict implementation of laws, especially tax laws, and reduces the possibility of tax evasion. At the significance level of 5%, the impact of government spending and the agricultural sector share variable (percentage of GDP) on tax evasion was positive but not statistically significant. In contrast, the effect of religion (percentage of Muslim population) and unemployment rate on tax evasion are negative, positive and significant, respectively.

AbstractThe purpose of this study is to identify the emotional tendencies of investors based on recognizing the behavioral biases of managers. The methodology of this research was a combination that in the first step in order to identify the components of managers' behavioral biases from meta-combined analysis with the participation of 18 academic experts. Then, through Delphi analysis, the identified indicators were examined. In Delphi analysis, the identified components of the CEO's behavioral biases on investors' emotional inclinations were examined and it was found that recognizing the CEO's utilitarian behavioral biases can increase the capital's emotional inclinations. Then in a small part, 101 companies in the period 2011 to 2018 were examined, which showed that the biases of the CEO's benevolent behavior on the emotional tendencies of investors were examined. And showed that the management of real and accrued earnings has a negative and significant effect on the emotional tendencies of investors.

AbstractThe purpose of this study is to study the market timing and provide a model for investors to make the right and responsible decisions against their capital and tries to examine the capabilities of man-angers of mutual funds in the Iranian capital market, whether they are time skills Have market assessments in choosing their investment portfolio or not. Therefore, the variables of the present study, using the implementation of a combined method of multi-attribute decision making and scenario analysis of "expert system proposed by Hosseini Nasab" [2], we used the A N P method. The results showed that it is possible to provide a comprehensive "timing" model for the capital market and In-prove the performance of professionals, and the future movements of the market can be predicted using the market timing strategy; Also, comparing the models of market timing strategy, the results showed that the timing strategy of seasons and dates, in comparison with the strategies of using moving average and seasonal timing of Sai Harding, have an effect on managers' performance and predicting future market movements; But compared to Mark Walker's seasonal timing strategies and Hirsch's best six-month timing strategies, it is less effective.