نشریه اقتصاد باثبات
سال سوم شماره 4 (پیاپی 9، زمستان 1401)

Taxes are considered as a stable and sustainable source of public financing of governments and policy makers which always looking to make the most of this financial tool by establishing optimal tax laws in order to achieve economic goals. On the other hand, in most of the tax systems implemented by governments in different countries, tax incentives are considered in the form of various types of tax concessions for economic agents. In Iran's tax laws, exemptions and incentives have been considered in different tax bases. One of the exemptions granted in Iran's tax system is the exemption of interest in various deposits in Iranian banks. In this paper, the effects of the tax on bank deposits interest are investigated in the form of a permanent tax on bank deposits interest in deterministic DSGE Approach. The obtained results show that with the permanent tax on bank deposits interest, if the economic agents are informed about the implementation earlier, the increase in total consumption will continue for a longer period of time and the increase in total production. Bank facilities paid to companies, investment and capital stock will also be higher and this increase will continue for a longer period of time. Therefore, it is recommended that if the economic policy makers intend to implement the tax on bank deposits interest, in order to increase the level of production and investment to a greater extent and for a longer period, the implementation of this policy should be announced to the economic agents as soon as possible.

In the last decade, attention has been paid to the issue of foreign direct investment. Foreign direct investment is the most common form of capital flow towards developing countries, which affects the economic growth and macroeconomic stability of the country (Metaxas & Kechagia, 2016).The government of Iran has spent a lot of resources in order to attract foreign investment, but despite the implementation of supportive policies and the approval of numerous laws in order to remove obstacles in the business environment, less than expected success has been achieved in the field of foreign investment. According to the UNCTAD report (2021), Iran's share of the total amount of foreign direct investment in the world was equal to 0.09 percent. By examining the existing literature, it is clear that the interaction of the actors involved in the issue of foreign investment (foreign investor, government and people) and its effect on policy outcomes has been neglected, which can lead to less success. Iran should play an important role in attracting foreign direct investment.David Cruz et al. (2023) in a study investigated the relationship between corruption and foreign direct investment in natural resources with emphasis on the role of recession and economic crisis in Latin American and Caribbean countries during the period of 1995-2020 using the panel approach. The results shown that high levels of corruption lead to a decrease in foreign direct investment in natural resources, which is a confirmation of the hypothesis of greasing wheels in investment literature.In this aspect, the present study is innovative, which aims to highlight the government's lack of attention to two basic issues in Iran. The first issue is the government's lack of attention to the interests of actors involved in foreign investment. The second issue is the presence of complex bureaucratic obstacles in the country.This study aims to analyze the decision-making process of foreign investors by using game theory when choosing Iran as an investment destination. In this study, the production function is considered with three capital inputs, the amount of bribery and provision of benefits. The reason for applying the third input (provision of benefits) in the production function is due to the fact that many activities are implemented. In the sense that their success requires the interaction of many players and adaptation to local conditions (Andrews et al, 2017). Then the problem of foreign investor optimization is examined.According to the findings of this research, with the increase in the level of institutional quality, the amount of bribe paid decreases, which applies to countries with a low level of institutional quality. The results of this study show that the Nash equilibrium is where the investor enters Iran and pays a bribe. In the next step, people choose the threat option. The government should also provide sufficient benefits and keep its promises in the future.

The main purpose of this study is to do modeling and investigate the relationship between liquidity and its role in the development of the stock and the housing market. This is accomplished through comparing 10 of Bayesian Averaging methods and principal component analysis carrying out an extensive set of simulation studies based closely on real datasets that span a range of situations encountered in practical data analysis. The data used in this article includes the seasonal data during the period from (1385:1) to (1399:4. The evaluation results show 4 types of PC, so that the first PC shows more than 95% of the changes. In the first PC, the two variables of liquidity and exchange rate have the most weight, and respectively, the second, third and fourth PC are related to oil revenues, legal deposit ratio and coin price. The variables of liquidity, exchange rate and oil revenues have a positive relationship with the index of stock and housing prices, and the variables of the legal deposit ratio and the price of coins have a negative relationship with the index of stock and housing prices. Also, the estimation results of the 10 analyzed models of Bayesian averaging show that in the modeling of the stock price index as well as the modeling of the housing price index, the best models are obtained through applying PCA and the prior distribution of AIC. Therefore, the use of the principal component analysis and the AIC model as a basis for approximating the probabilities of the posterior model, under the condition that the probabilities of the prior model are similar to Zellner's g-prior, is approved in this research.

Uncertainty caused by various economic and non-economic factors has a negative impact on the macroeconomic performance. Macroeconomic instability reduces the predictability of the macroeconomic situation and leads to improper allocation of resources, reduction of investment and economic growth. One of the most important factors affecting economic stability is political violence. Political violence is the deliberate use of power to achieve political goals. The purpose of this research is to investigate the economic impact of political violence in 20 selected countries of the Middle East and North Africa during the period from 2010 to 2020 using the panel vector autoregression method. The variable of political violence is the sum of inter-state violence, inter-state war, internal violence, civil war, ethnic violence and ethnic war. Macroeconomic instability index is calculated using inflation rate, unemployment rate, real exchange rate and exchange rate. The findings show that political violence has a positive and significant effect on macroeconomic instability in selected countries of the Middle East and North Africa. Political violence directs expenses towards non-developmental use, which leads to a decrease in productivity and job opportunities. Also, in order to cover the expenses of the war, internal resources should be used, including the printing of new banknotes, increasing taxes and internal borrowing, and external sources, including borrowing from international sources. Therefore, political violence causes an increase in inflation, unemployment and debt, which indicates an unfavorable macroeconomic environment. In addition, government spending, financial development, money supply and institutional quality have a positive and significant effect, and globalization and democracy have a negative and significant effect on macroeconomic instability.

Tourism has great importance in employment and production and is one of the most vital industries in the world. Many countries have made detailed planning due to the importance of the tourism industry. In this study, the effect of increasing the share of the tourism industry in the portfolio of households on the employment generation of economic sectors has been investigated. For this purpose, the AFLQ spatial share method was used in the input-output table of two regions for Khorasan Razavi Province and other national economic sectors. The results showed that with a 10% increase in household consumption, a total of 81,024 people were employed in Khorasan Razavi province and 9,656 people were employed in other regions. The most employment created in Khorasan Razavi is related to industrial production (construction), agriculture, and industry, and the least is related to religious organizations and organizations with members. Also, 2493 people are in the tourism sector and 78531 people are in the non-tourism sector. The transportation and warehousing sector accounts for the largest share of employment created in tourism-related sectors of the province. In other regions, industrial production (construction), agriculture, and industry; It has the most change in employment. Also, 718 people are in the tourism sector and 8938 people are in the non-tourism sector. Transportation and warehousing in other regions have the most employment created in the sectors related to tourism.Transportation and warehousing in other regions have the most employment created in the sectors related to tourism.Transportation and warehousing in other regions have the most employment created in the sectors related to tourism.

Investigating the effects of government size on brain drain as an important factor in the process of development and growth of countries has a decisive role and various aspects and areas in developing countries have always been affected by this category. Accordingly, one of the most important goals of economic planners is to reduce the size of the government in order to prevent the migration of elites in different societies. On the other hand, countries with large levels of government are witnessing brain drain and the migration of their talents. In this study, we intend to examine the effects of government size on brain drain during the years 2002-2018 and based on data from official economic statistics centers such as World Bank data and immigration data in developing countries. The econometric method used is the Generalized Method of Moment. The results show that the first stop of brain drain and the size of government have a positive effect on brain drain in developing countries and social welfare, political stability, health and public health have a negative effect on brain drain. Based on the results of the research, it is suggested that the decision-makers in the developing countries, in applying their policies and enacting their laws and defending the support schemes of the elites and entrepreneurs and creating a platform for growth and progress for the country's elites based on a meritocracy and deserve more attention. And this work will not be realized unless the size of the government is reduced and, in a better sense, improved. Based on the results of the research, it is suggested that the size of the government should be reduced in order to increase social welfare and lay the groundwork to prevent the departure of elites.