مجله مدیریت مخاطرات محیطی
سال یازدهم شماره 2 (تابستان 1403)

Drought has significant economic and social consequences, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The Mashhad Plain has recently experienced moderate to severe droughts, resulting in substantial damage to the agriculture and water sectors. This study aims to project changes in the characteristics of extreme droughts (SPI6 <-1) using outputs from the MRI-ESM2-0 model under two SSP scenarios. Additionally, the study investigated drought events through bivariate frequency analyses of drought duration and severity, based on SPI6 and the copula concept. Precipitation downscaling was performed using two methods linear scaling (LS) and distribution mapping (DM). The LS method demonstrated superior downscaling capability based on statistical criteria. Projections for the near future (2026-2050) indicated an increase in precipitation under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, with a statistically significant increase under SSP5-8.5. A decrease in drought frequency was observed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario based on SPI6-DM. Assessing future changes in characteristics of drought derived from the SPI6-LS series suggested an increase in drought frequency under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Univariate return period analysis using the LS method indicated that, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, drought events would remain unchanged compared to the baseline period. Conversely, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario (DM method), increased values of duration and severity were projected. Joint frequency analysis results suggested that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, seasonal joint return periods of severity and duration would be shorter than the baseline, indicating an increased risk of drought hazards in the region under study. The application of these research results will contribute to improved future planning in the water and agriculture sectors for this area.

Cinema as a means of communication has the ability to represent environmental issues and influence the audience's perception and understanding in the management of environmental hazards. This research seeks to answer the questions: How is the representation of natural hazard management depicted in the cinema of Iran and the world? Has cinema been able to increase the social awareness of its audience regarding how to confront hazards? This research has conducted a qualitative content analysis of 17 foreign films and 9 Iranian films. Based on the content of the analyzed films and after coding the research findings, six main themes were identified. The epresentation of this management in the cinema of the world and Iran is shaped based on two concepts that emerge from the conceptual framework of this research. The contents that can be related to the natural hazards management cycle are as follows: Natural hazards; The experience of sudden collapse and destruction of life, Decision-making for natural hazards management, Rescue and relief, Control of natural hazards caused by natural hazards, Reconstruction, recovery, and rehabilitation Investment ,Encouragement of preventive actions for the next natural hazards. The findings of this research indicate that a society seeking to establish an effective relationship with nature and recognizing the role of social realities in the formation of disasters strives to control vulnerability and enhance resilience. In global cinema, the management of natural hazards is primarily reflected within the framework of rational, proactive, practical, and targeted management. In Iranian cinema, the management of natural hazards is often portrayed as a form of surrender to nature, characterized by waiting for assistance and an inability to control hazards. This depiction reflects a more passive approach compared to the proactive strategies shown in global cinema.

Road accidents are one of the most important causes of death across the world, killing many people every year. The aim of the present study is the phenomenological study of the lived experience of ems personnel in assisting the victims of road accidents in the city of Bam. The research method is qualitative and based on phenomenological approach. The statistical population includes all officials and personnel of EMS in this city. Sampling was done using the purposeful sampling method. The samples include 25 people and its purpose was to achieve theoretical saturation. The data analysis was performed by using open, axial and selective coding. The results demonstrated that inter-organizational inconsistency, ignorance in facing the crisis and equipment-communication weakness are the most important problems experienced in the field of assistance. Moreover, issues such as long distances between the stations, inexperience of some newly recruited personnel, lack of motivation and outdated equipment are among the most important issues and problems of EMS in this city. The overall conclusion of the research indicates that equipping ambulances and medical equipment along with updating the information system such as satellite mobiles and coordination between the traffic, Red Crescent and fire organizations should be prioritized in road assistance services.

Flood hazard is one of the most destructive phenomena that affects human life worldwide. Following the activity of a powerful rainfall system on March 17, 2019, in the Gorganrood basin, a 500-yr flood occurred, and half of the Gorgan city was inundated. This research was conducted to evaluate the operation management of the Golestan Reservoir before the flood. To accomplish this study, the Landsat 8 satellite images in the period of 2002-2023 and Sentinel 2 images one month before and after the flood were processed in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) system. In total, 245 images with monthly resolution were analyzed. Five indices of AWEI_sh, NDWI, AWEInsh, WRI, and MNDWI were used to identify the water inundation area. Results show that the AWEI_sh index had the best performance in terms of a kappa coefficient of 0.985, overall accuracy of 90%, and accuracy of 100%. The results showed that while the Golestan Dam reservoir experienced less than 50% full in 90% of the months (out of 245 months), this reservoir was 68% full two days before the flood. The results of this study revealed that despite the announcement of orange-level warnings by Iran’s Meteorological Organization in 5 days before the flood event and also despite the efforts of the dam manager to exhaust the stored water in the reservoir (33 percent empty volume), these actions have not been able to protect the downstream areas of the dam from flooding. Therefore, in addition to the effect of the dam on flood control, it is necessary to revisit the locations of the human settlements downstream of the dams.

This study aims to identify the factors affecting news management during major fires and uses a mixed-methods approach incorporating both quantitative and qualitative techniques. The qualitative sample consists of news editors from the national broadcasting organization, spokespersons, Tehran Fire Department officials, the government spokesperson, communication experts, and media editors. In the quantitative phase, all news published during the two-week Plasco hazard (January 30, 2017, to February 13, 2017), totaling over 100,000 articles, was analyzed. Data collection in the qualitative phase involved purposeful sampling and in-depth interviews, with data analyzed using thematic and quantitative content analysis methods. The findings indicate that official media during the Plasco hazard had strengths such as prominent coverage, attention to both local and national aspects of the incident, and clear and straightforward reporting. However, significant weaknesses were also identified, including a focus on event-driven news, lack of comprehensive news packages, excessive emphasis on news novelty while neglecting the "why" and "how" aspects, and insufficient attention to soft news. Additionally, the use of official sources and dissemination of classified information, coupled with positive bias, lack of neutrality, and inadequate coverage of officials and government bodies, were major weaknesses in the news coverage of the Plasco incident.

Extreme precipitation is one of the most important hazardous weather phenomena in southeastern Iran, leading to substantial economic and social impacts annually. This study aims to examine the temporal and spatial variations in extreme precipitation in the region and its correlation with Sudan low-pressure systems. To achieve this goal, data from the Aphrodite and CHIRPS for precipitation with spatial resolution (0.25° by 0.25°) and SLP (ER5) data with spatial resolution (0.75° by 0.75°) were used over a 40-year period (1979 to 2018). Extreme precipitation events were identified by examining the 90th and 95th percentiles. To locate low-pressure centers, criteria included having the lowest pressure relative to eight surrounding points, a pressure difference of 0.8 to 3.8 hPa between these points and the central pressure, which needed to be below 1008 hPa. Temporal and spatial variations were assessed using a modified Mann-Kendall nonparametric method along with Sen's slope estimator. The results of the first part showed that extreme precipitation had different spatial distributions across the region, with approximately 49% and 30% of network points showing significant positive trends according to the 90th and 95th percentiles, respectively. The remaining points exhibited no discernible trend, particularly in the central part where weather stations may be lacking. The findings from the synoptic analysis indicate that the alterations in precipitation boundaries in Sudan can be explained by the variations in the activity of low-pressure centers, so that in the second period, The Sudan low pressure had a relatively higher frequency. This means that the intensity of heavy rains is associated with the increase of extreme low pressure events in Sudan.