پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان
سال نوزدهم شماره 42 (تابستان 1403)

The experimental studies done in the field of estimating the multiplier of demand side policies, have shown that the multiplier of fiscal policy has not been fixed, rather has been changing over time. From a theoretical perspective this coefficient is influenced by different factors such that with change of every factor the mentioned coefficient would change. TVP-VAR models have the ability to estimate the response of a variable due to the shock introduced by other variables over time. In this study, using quarterly data from the period 1990 to 2021 in Iran and employing the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with the factor-augmented approach, first of all, the combined and latent index of monetary policy and impulse respons function was extracted. Then the multipliers of personal taxes, corporate taxes and property tax were calculated in the form of time-varying estimations. In the third stage, using the variance analysis technique, the factors effective on multiplier of direct tax policies were ascertained. The results indicated that from among 3 tools for direct tax policies, the greatest multiplier was related to corporate taxes. Furthermore, the imports to GDP and the savings to GDP ratios have the highest efficiency and explanatory power of multiplier fluctuations of personal taxes.

Unemployment is a key economic indicator that has consistently garnered attention from policymakers, economists, and the public. In major oil-exporting countries like members of OPEC, crude oil exports significantly impact revenue, foreign exchange flows, and the labor market. This research investigates the presence of asymmetric interactions between oil price fluctuations, exchange rate changes, and unemployment. To achieve this, annual data (1990-2020) from selected oil-producing countries (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Nigeria) were analyzed. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach with asymmetric lags will be employed to reveal the asymmetric impacts on unemployment in response to oil price and exchange rate fluctuations. Our findings suggest that positive oil price shocks have a significant short-term impact on increasing unemployment in these countries, while negative oil price shocks have no significant short-term effect on unemployment. However, in the long term, the impact of a positive oil price shock on unemployment is greater than the impact of a negative oil price shock. Additionally, positive exchange rate changes (depreciation of domestic currency against foreign currency) have a significant negative impact on unemployment in the short term. Regarding the long-term effects of exchange rate changes, both positive and negative changes impact unemployment in these selected countries, leading to decreases and increases, respectively. Notably, the magnitude of the impact of appreciations in the exchange rate is greater than that of depreciations.In contrast, in the long term, the effect of a positive oil shock on unemployment is greater than a negative oil shock.

Inflation is one of the challenging and vital issues of economics, which has an undeniable effect on economic stability in the countries all over the world. For this reason, many researchers and policymakers have always sought to identify factors affecting inflation. In the meantime, oil price, as one of the global and strategic variables, can have a significant effect on inflation, especially in countries dependent on oil revenues such as Iran. Accordingly, considering the importance of inflation and the need to identify the causes and factors affecting it on the one hand, and the prominent role of supply side factors on the other hand, this study aims to investigate the effect of oil price fluctuations on the inflation rate considering the threshold effect of economic growth, and to identify the other supply-side factors affecting inflation rate, including technology and labor market dynamics during 1375-1401, applying the threshold regression of time series. According to the results, the oil price has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate when the economic growth is lower than 4.303%. This effect is also positive and significant in the economic growth of above the mentioned threshold, but its amount is less. In addition, unemployment and technology have negative and significant effects on inflation rate, which respectively confirm Phillips theory and Solow growth theory. However, population size has a positive and significant effect on inflation rate.

Previously, several studies have investigated the relationship between inflation and income inequality. But the main purpose of this article is to show that the unpredictability of inflation or the so-called uncertainty of inflation can also cause income inequality, because the weak sections of the society make wrong economic decisions due to not having capital market tools at their disposal when the economic situation is turbulent. In this study, the effect of inflation uncertainty on income inequality in Iran in the period of 1971-2021 was investigated. First, inflation uncertainty was calculated using the GARCH model and inflation data, and then the effect of inflation uncertainty on income inequality was estimated in the form of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL). The results indicate that in linear ARDL, inflation uncertainty does not have a significant effect on income inequality in the long run, but in NARDL, in the long term, inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on income inequality. When uncertainty or inflation fluctuations decrease, income inequality in Iran decreases. This point is the main finding of this study. On the other hand, the increase in uncertainty has not had a significant effect on income inequality.

Tax is the main and most stable financial source of the government and plays an important role in increasing the government's income. The level of realization of tax revenues depends on the economic structure of the country. In recent years, with the outrages rise of prices and the formation of high inflation in the country, people are reluctant to pay taxes and as a result motivation of rent-seeking from the government's tax revenues has enhanced. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of inflation on rent-seeking from tax revenues in Iran's economy. To achieve this goal, a new Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model has been purposed which considered the realities of Iran's economy and involved sectors of household, business, oil, government and central bank during period of 1991-2020. After extracting the equations of economic agents, the model has been processed in Dynare software. The simulated results indicate that the increase in prices has led to an increase in rent-seeking from the government's tax revenues which is consistent with the theoretical foundations of the economy and the reality observed in the country. Since the increase in rent-seeking from tax revenues leads to the reduction of public resources of the government budget, budget deficit, and a reduction in non-oil production and employment in the country, therefore, it is suggested that the country's economic policies should be implemented in order to control prices and limit the space for rent-seeking.

The present study examines the impact of shadow banking on inflation rates in four groups of selected countries (including developed countries with high levels of shadow banking, developed countries with low levels of shadow banking, developing countries with high levels of shadow banking, and developing countries with low levels of shadow banking) during the period 2002-2020. The research modeling is based on dynamic panel patterns, and the relationships between variables are estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique. The results of the model estimation in two groups of countries under study, namely developed countries with high levels of shadow banking and developing countries with low levels of shadow banking, indicate that the expansion of shadow banking leads to increased inflation, with this effect being exacerbated through the production channel. Conversely, the findings suggest a negative impact of shadow banking on inflation in developed countries with low levels of shadow banking and developing countries with high levels of shadow banking. It is worth noting that the results of the model estimations show that in none of the four groups of countries examined, shadow banking has led to inflation through the money creation channel. It is worth noting that the results of the model estimations show that in none of the four groups of countries examined, shadow banking has led to inflation through the money creation channel.