فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال چهاردهم شماره 4 (زمستان 1393)

Achieving economic growth requires an optimal allocation system of resources at national level. This is not possible without a perfect and efficient financial market. The stock exchange as a part of capital market can provide the required national financial resources and lead to economic growth. In the capital market، information is regarded as the most valuable asset. The more the transparency of information in the stock exchange، the lower the information asymmetry and the more efficient capital market will be. This study aims to analyze the effects of the ownership share of institutional investors، the board size، the role of non-executive board and separation of chief executive officer and chairman of the board roles (separation variable) on information asymmetry in the stock exchange. It estimates a panel data regression for the companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) during the fourth national development plan. The results indicate that the ownership share of institutional investors and board size have negative effects on information asymmetry، while the ratio of non-executive members to board size and separation variable have no significant effects on information asymmetry.

This study introduces the factors influencing on development of high-tech services exports (HTSE) in Iran. After communicating the overall policies of the fifth development plan، the national policy-makers were invited to formulating the exports development plan of high-tech services according to paragraph 29. This paper aimed to the explanation of high-tech services and identification of factors affecting HTSE. In this regard، by a review of literature، initially a sample with 255 people out of a statistical population with 555 members was selected using cluster sampling techniques، then the statistical data was gathered using documentary searches، interviews، formation the focus groups and completion the questionnaires with reliability coefficient of 79 percent. Finally، the factors and targeted indicators have been drawn out of a non-experimental survey design using structural equation modeling (SEM) in Lisrel software environment. The findings indicate that basic requirements and related factors، necessities of efficiency and competitiveness and sustainability as well as related components are of main factors affecting development promotion of high-tech exports in I. R. Iran. The model specified explains the 80 percent of changes in basic requirements، 68 percent of competiveness necessities، and 84 percent of sustainability needs.

Industrial firms play important roles in creating jobs and products nationwide، thus، their survival is of vital importance. The existing studies on closure of the firms show that various factors contribute to the exit of firms from the industry which industry growth is the main factor in this context. Industry growth affects the exit of firms in different ways، for instance، industries having high growth are of high entry rate that influences significantly on the firms exit. This study examines the industry growth effect on exit of firms from industry and uses an artificial neural network (ANN) model for this purpose. The statistical population includes 10000 industrial firms at 4-digit level ISIC codes during the third national development plan over the 2000-2004. The industry growth is calculated with different indexes such as absolute growth and mean growth rates. The results show that industry growth followed at firm size can explain the most of exit incentives of the firms.

Due to increasing concerns on environmental problems in current era، this study assesses the eco-efficiency of oil refineries. The oil refineries play essential role in the national economy in one hand، and cause environmental pollution due to high fossil fuel consumption and Co2 emissions in the other hand. Eco-efficiency is calculated using Windeap software، DEA output-oriented method، and inclusion of undesirable outputs. The results suggest that Bandar Abbas Oil Refining Company is the most efficient refinery over the 2003-2009، and growth rates of refineries eco-efficiency are positive. The results of Tobit regression show that fuel oil and gasoil have negative effects on the eco-efficiency، however natural gas، refinery gases، and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have positive effects on the eco-efficiency. On the other hand، if a refinery refines crude oil slightly more than nominal capacity rate، refinery eco-efficiency will be further decreased.

Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates، both real and nominal exchange rates have fluctuated widely. Empirical findings indicate significant impact of exchange rate uncertainty on macroeconomic variables such as output، trade، and investment. This article investigates the impact of the real exchange rate uncertainty on total factor productivity (TFP) in agriculture sector of Iran during the period of 1974-2007. The uncertainty of real exchange rate is defined as the conditional variances obtained from Exponential Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model. The econometric estimation using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach shows that the real exchange rate uncertainty has a significant and negative effect on TFP in Iran''s agriculture sector in long- and short term. According to the results، in order to reduce the real exchange rate uncertainty، it is recommended that the appropriate policies should be made by policymakers to lessen the difference between nominal and real exchange rates.

This article analyzes the welfare loss of pollution resulting from production in Iranian economy using an augmented growth model and designing an economic-ecological system dynamics model. The main elements of the model include social welfare، welfare loss، production، physical and human capital accumulation، pollution accumulation، income distribution، and initial conditions. Regarding 2005 as a base year، the time path of per capita pollution and related welfare loss are simulated for the Iranian economy over the 20-year time horizon. The simulation results indicate that with persistence of the status quo، per capita pollution and its welfare loss rise with positive rate. Therefore، the goals of sustainable development will not be achievable. Hence، further improvement of the environment requires government intervention through the appropriate policies. The results of sensitivity analysis of policy parameters show that clean technology diffusion and environmental preferences of producers have negative effects on pollution emissions per capita and economic welfare in Iran، while strengthening environmental preferences of consumers may raise the social welfare loss of pollution. In addition، pollution per capita and its welfare loss are of most sensitivity to environmental preferences of producers، environmental preferences of consumers and clean technology diffusion، respectively. Policy-makers may regard these results in planning to achieve sustainable development objectives.

Political instability as one the domestic factors has the nearest interaction with the concept of economic security in influencing on production factors. In developing countries، uncertainty is created in an unstable political environment and violent behavior atmosphere. It results in reduction in the investment levels، failure in attracting foreign capital، and capital flight. Terrorism is one of the important political risk indicators. This study examines the effect of terrorism on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Middle East region. The statistical sample includes Iran، Bahrain، Egypt، Kuwait، Saudi Arabia، Syria، Jordan، and Turkey over the period 1970-2008. Using panel data method، findings show that Terrorism has negative impact on FDI in selected countries. Adversely، GDP and Openness degree have positive impact on FDI.

Sports and recreations as a forward industry play direct and indirect roles in national development processes. Sport increases the level of social health، reduces health care expenditure، and raises employment. It increases economic growth by incoming capital flows. Currently، sports and recreation activities industry is of main and influential influence on economic growth in the developed countries. Many countries have paved economic growth path with constructing infrastructure for global and continental events. In Iran، the presence of government in sport sector is very sensible. This paper examines the effect of government investment in sports on economic growth in Iran over the post-Revolution period (1979-2010). To this end، an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL) model is used. Estimation results show that government investment in sport has no significant effect on economic growth. Hence، it is recommended that government would invest in infrastructure and education related to sports for creation of public and professional sports with high efficiency.

The main purpose of this paper is to provide a mathematical model for oil future contracts. The study basis has put on the Schwartz Model (1997)، but it is clear that with the small change، it is applicable for Iranian Oil Industry Futures. The Schwartz Model has considered only short jumps in the prices، but with recent oil price volatilities having significant effects on oil properties، it is necessary to include both short and long jumps in the model. According to these conditions، the model designed results in a complicated mathematical problem، which forms a Partial Differential Equation (DPE) having integral terms، and boundary and initial conditions. There is no closed solution for such equation. Thus، it should be solved by numerical methods. In the other hand، there is no access to real data for Iranian Oil Market، so we used a simulation model، but it will be possible to use an applied model in Iranian Oil Industry with real data in the future.

Boom and recession cycles in different countries relate to the U. S. business cycles. The study of severe recession in the U. S. can predict a contemporaneous global recession and provide policies to reduce the negative effects. This paper analyzes the business cycles of the U. S. using three stylized facts and reasons. The consequences of U. S. business cycles، as a developed country، have been compared to those of Iranian business cycle in the final section of each part. The period covers quarterly data for U. S during 1960-2010. This paper analyzes the data using VAR model. Our findings show the severe economic recessions have been started in the U. S. during 1980 and 2008. in addition، The U. S. economy has experienced the longest period of economic boom during 1980s and 1990s. Comparing business cycle features of the U. S. and Iran suggests that the severity and extent of boom and recession cycles is much higher in Iran than America. According to the stylized facts on business cycles، some common features of the variables have been confirmed in both countries. On the other variables، the Iranian model is the same of developing countries and the American model is consistent with the developed countries. In terms of the causes of business cycles، the private residential investment has been major cause of business cycles in American economy in the recent years، while exogenous oil price shocks on the Iranian economy has been the most important factor.