فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
پیاپی 124 (زمستان 1402)

Agriculture, as one of the main parts of development, plays a fundamental role in the economic development of countries. To develop this sector, farmers need suitable and acceptable policies and programs. It is important to pay attention to the fact that today, not only economic goals should be considered in agriculture, but as a source of damage in different areas, it is necessary to examine the environmental issues related to this sector. Furthermore, agriculture is an activity that comes with risk. Farmers live with risk and make decisions that affect agricultural yields. Therefore, this study aimed at concurrently reducing the usage of fertilizers and chemical pesticides, while also mitigating production risks.

To attain the study objectives, the Fuzzy Goal Programming (FGP) model was utilized, with all estimations carried out in GAMS. Additionally, the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) model was employed to capture and assess risk within the model framework. In the context of a fuzzy environment, goal programming can be formulated as FGP, incorporating three types of fuzzy goals as described in the equation as follows:Where the sign ~ shows the fuzziness of the goal value. To establish the levels of goals within the model, initially, a distinct linear model was estimated for each of the study objectives.Top of Form The products in this study included wheat, barley, rice, corn, peas, lentils, sunflower, potato, onion, and Soybeans.

The comparison of the current situation and the results of single-objective models showed that considering the two goals of minimizing fertilizer and pesticide together would reduce the consumption of these two inputs in the final model. In the next step, the objective of risk minimization was incorporated as a significant factor in the goal-fuzzy model. The model was then simultaneously estimated based on the three goals: minimizing fertilizer, minimizing pesticides, and minimizing risk. The results of the model indicated that the consumption of fertilizer and pesticides in the final model had decreased compared to other models and the current situation. Additionally, this approach resulted in a model with lower associated risk.

Results of calculations showed that the FGP model considering three goals in comparison to the risk-free model would offer better results with nearer results to real conditions. Accordingly, this study suggested the concerned model to be used for each crop separately.

The occurrence of wide fluctuations in commodity markets poses numerous challenges to producers and consumers. Examining the link between markets can make it possible to predict the future behavior of commodity prices. Accordingly, the present study intended to explain return and volatility spillovers of the market of three necessary inputs of Iran's livestock and poultry industry, including corn, soybean meal, and barley. In this study, for modelling the relationships between the price fluctuations of the livestock and poultry inputs market, using the monthly data of 2001:04-2021:3, the Vector Autoregressive (VAR)- Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner (BEKK)- Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MVGARCH) model known as VAR-BEKK-MVGARCH model was estimated. The results showed a positive and significant return spillover from the soybean meal market to the corn market, and conversely, while the barley market returns spillover to the corn market was insignificant, and the soybean meal market was negative and significant. In addition, the market return of soybean meal had a positive and significant effect on the market return of barley, and the spread of the barley market from the corn market was not accepted. Also, the current market volatility was asymmetrically affected by positive and negative shocks, and the existence of a unidirectional asymmetric cross-market spillover from corn and barley markets to soybean meal market and from corn market to barley market was confirmed. Based on the results obtained in this study, it is suggested that policymakers consider these effects in the management of price movements. Furthermore, it is suggested that the government prevent the spread of various negative news items, such as reducing the supply of currency required for the import of inputs.

The silk industry can play a significant role Iran's non-oil exports. In a situation where leaving the rural regions is an important concern in the country and causes imbalance in employment and income opportunities in urban and rural areas, it is necessary to pay attention to the survival of this industry. Therefore, it seems necessary to evaluate the possible strategies for the improvement and growth of the silk industry by identifying the effective internal and external factors in the industry and introduce the most appropriate one. The studies conducted so far regarding the silk industry have had an experimental approach and the introduction of a strategic framework for the development of this sector has not been considered. Considering the above-mentioned points and taking into account the study gap regarding the introduction of a strategic framework for the development of the silk industry, this study aimed at developing a strategic model for the silk industry in order to develop this sector.

In this research, in order to determine the priority of the proposed strategies for the development of the silk industry, SWOT analysis along with ANP was used. In this regard, a group of experts, by analyzing the external and internal environments of the industry, identified controllable and uncontrollable sub-factors affecting the success of this industry. The determined sub-factors have strategic importance. Using SWOT sub-factors, SWOT matrix and alternative strategies were formed. Therefore, the silk industry was recognized as an industry with four strategies, including: Strength-Opportunity (SO) strategies, which is the proper use of opportunities by exploiting the strengths of the industry; Weakness-Opportunity (WO) strategies, which seeks to properly exploit the environmental opportunities with respect to the industry's weaknesses; Strength-Threat (ST) strategies, which are related to reducing or eliminating the effects of environmental threats through the optimal use of the industry strengths; and finally, Weakness-Threat (WT) strategies, which reduce the effects of environmental threats by considering the industry's weaknesses. The intended steps for using the ANP model in this research were based on the proposed algorithm of Yuksel and Dagdeviren (2007). The intended statistical population included 36 experts, local officials and experts in the field of silk in Razavi Khorasan and Guilan provinces of Iran, and due to their limited numbers, all people were selected as a sample. The main tool of data collection was completing the questionnaire and all the collected information was obtained through the consensus of experts' judgments. The validity of the questionnaires as well as the reliability of its different parts was also examined using Cronbach's alpha method, which showed high reliability (0.78 and 0.91).

The concerned SWOT-ANP model consisted of four levels. The first level was related to choosing the best strategy and the second level was related to the main factors of SWOT analysis. The SWOT sub-factors were in the third level of the model; this level included six sub-factors for the strengths factor, six sub-factors for the weaknesses factor, five sub-factors for the opportunities factor and six sub-factors for the threats factor. Assuming the absence of mutual dependence between the main factors of SWOT, the matrix of pairwise comparisons of the main factors was formed by experts using a scale of 1 to 9, and by analyzing the matrix of paired comparisons, the weight vector (relative importance) was obtained. In the third step, the interdependencies between the main factors were determined by examining the effect of each factor on the other factor using pairwise comparison matrices. Interdependencies between the main factors tend to be obtained after analyzing the internal and external environments of the organization. So, in the next step, the interdependence weights of the main factors were obtained through the product of the dependence matrix of the main factors in the relative importance of the main factors, after normalization. After this stage, the relative importance of sub-factors of SWOT was obtained using the matrix of paired comparisons. The total weights of sub-factors were obtained by multiplying the weights of main factors by the relative weights of sub-factors. In the seventh step, the priority of alternative strategies was calculated according to each sub-factor of SWOT using the matrix of paired comparisons. According to the obtained weights, the strategy of rebuilding and strengthening the integration of Silkworm breeding in the silk value chain had the most weight and was chosen as the best strategy. Reconstruction of Silkworm breeding activities is aimed at reconstruction of the internal production of silk thread as the primary basis in the production of silk textiles. This will be achieved by strengthening investment in Silkworm breeding, increasing awareness of silkworm breeding and developing mulberry farms.

In this study, based on a strategic planning, strategies were presented for the development of the silk industry in the country so that economic development can be provided, especially in the agricultural sector. To this end, SWOT-ANP analysis was used. The four strategic goals presented in this research, are as follows: Strengthening the empowerment and institutional support of the silk industry; Facilitating market entry and strengthening high-value silk products; Developing skills and improving product quality, design and innovation in carpet and textile subsectors; and Restructuring and strengthening the integration of Silkworm breeding in the silk value chain. The results showed that the strategy of "rebuilding and strengthening the integration of silkworm breeding in the silk value chain" is chosen as the best strategy. Based on the study findings, forming a financing mechanism to support the development of this industry, providing a suitable model for increasing the scale of silkworm breeding, achieving larger vertical integrations among the actors, managing the commercial and production information related to silk production, implementing innovative business models and contract farming, and establishing a strong relationship with the textile and tourism industry in order to strengthen and create market opportunities are necessary and recommended.

The drop in the level of underground water and the subsequent subsidence of more than 20 cm of land in the plains of Alborz province of Iran has now become one of the biggest environmental concerns of the province. On the other hand, excessive extraction of underground water sources in this province will lead to a big disaster in the near future, and in order to prevent this, volumetric meters have been installed in the province. Therefore, the approach of setting up a water market in this situation is one of the best measures that can be taken into consideration. In this study, Hashtgerd Plain in Alborz province, as the most important agricultural region of the province, which consumes 87.23 percent of surface water resources and 90 percent of underground water resources in the agricultural sector, was studied in order to investigate the effects of water market simulation. In this study, the demand function was estimated using a Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model (aiming at estimating the equilibrium price) as it is more compatible with real conditions. The PMP and production functions of Statewide Agricultural Production (SWAP) are among the techniques used to simulate a water market and study the effects of its formation, the role of a water market in economic value changes, etc.Step 1: Zonation of the study area and collection of required dataStep 2: Solving the linear programming model and determining dual values ​​or shadow prices ​​of constraintsStep 3: Estimation of the secondary Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production functionStep 4: Estimation of the original CES production functionStep 5: Estimation of the exponential cost functionStep 6: Estimation of demand functions of agricultural products based on endogenous pricesStep 7: Building the final planning model and explaining the calibrated PMP modelFor this purpose, using the information collected in the form of a questionnaire and referring to relevant organizations for the years 2015-2016, the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model was estimated with the approach of regional production functions of agricultural products and the demand function was extracted. Accordingly, the equilibrium price of water in the Hashtgerd Plain was estimated 3394 IRI rials per cubic meter, which would save more than 28 percent in water consumption. With the implementation of this policy, the welfare of water buyers would decrease and the welfare of water sellers would increase. Therefore, if policies such as increasing the efficiency of irrigation systems are implemented at the same time as the water market is launched, there will be a smaller decrease in the level of welfare. It can be concluded that the required water resources were 234.5 million m3 before the formation of the proposed water market in the Hashtgerd Plain of Alborz province. After the water market formation and the application of market prices (3,394 IRI rials/m3), the use of water input will reduce to 167.32 million m3, i.e., a 28.6 percent saving in water resources. The minimum and maximum water prices are 3282 and 7282 IRI rials/m3, respectively, in the simulated market. After the water market formation, the cropping pattern will undergo changes in the region, which are different for the groups of water input buyers and sellers. The sellers tend to reduce the area under cultivation of all crops, except for wheat, due to the low water requirement of this crop, compared to the other crops. This means that the revenue from the sale of water to applicants is more than that of cultivating the crops in these conditions. The buyers will also reduce crops with high water requirements and increase the cultivation of the other crops. Increasing the efficiency of irrigation systems is one of the policies that, if accomplished in parallel with the water market formation, will lead to an increase in the welfare of water buyers to compensate for their lost welfare after the water market formation. According to the results of the calculations, the following recommendations are presented regarding water resource management using the formation of a water market:To prevent the reduction of farmers' welfare, policymakers are recommended to simultaneously implement supportive policies, such as supporting the increase of the irrigation system efficiency (and other inputs). Considering that increasing the price to the equilibrium limit will cause a sudden shock to the sector, it is suggested to first determine the minimum obtained price (3,282 IRI rials/m3) as the market price. This price is closer to the economic value and, with a saving of approximately 15 percent also covers step-wise policies of water use reduction (approved by the IRI Sixth Development Plan). Since it is possible to save water resources after a water market formation, IRI Department of Environment (DOE), as the responsible organization, is recommended to adopt a measure to prevent water extraction from the land by the water sellers and, in return, provide them with the benefits of selling water. In other words, a water market will be formed between farmers and the DOE by redeeming a portion of the shares of water rights owned by the farmers. Another recommendation of this study is efforts to change the cropping pattern in the region with the approach of cultivating crops that have higher yields and more income with less use of water. Further studies on medicinal plants are also recommended in this regard.

Dairy products are one of the most valuable foods that contain almost all the necessary ingredients for the growth and continuation of human life. Among Iran's food products, the dairy products occupy the first place in exports and play an important role in the country's foreign exchange. Iran has a self-sufficiency of about one hundred percent in milk and that is why the government and the dairy sector tend to aim at exporting milk to other countries. Iran is a young player in dairy exports but has already reached an annual export level of 600,000 tons of dairy products. The country aims to be a regional key player in the dairy exports. This requires top quality milk and techniques. Finding markets for export is a big challenge for the government. A good condition for export over large distances would be the dairy products with internationally recognized brand names. This study aimed at investigating the impact of effective exchange rate on the export of Iranian dairy products. For this purpose, firstly, the current conditions of dairy products export as well as the effective exchange rate fluctuations during 1991-2021 were identified as the factors affecting the export development. Then, these factors were tested using the Markov switching model. After performing the static test, the Hodrick-Prescott filter was used to examine currency shocks and the production gap. The study findings showed that the variables of real exchange rate and domestic production of milk positively and inflation negatively affected the export of dairy products; the real effective exchange rate in both regimes had a positive and significant impact on the export value of the dairy products; in addition, in both regimes, the domestic milk production had a positive and significant effect on the model, while the inflation in the both regimes of the estimated model had a negative but significant impact on the dairy exports. The way of managing Iran's economy, the characteristics of policy making, the commercial influence on the supply and demand of currency through export and import as well as the management of the currency market by the government and the central bank, according to the fundamental changes in these two institutions, have all had a significant impact on the behavior of the exchange rate in the country. Therefore, according to the concerned results, an increase in the real exchange rate could lead to an increase in the export of dairy products. Although in the current situation, one of the main drivers of the government to increase imports and exports is to stabilize the exchange rate, but due to the different effects of exchange rate changes on different products, it is recommended that the real exchange rate calculated in this study be used to evaluate some economic policies such as agricultural policies.

Identifying the factors that determine the willingness to consume Non-Genetically Modified Organism (Non-GMO) products is an important step before identifying the market needs and marketing these products. In fact, examining the factors affecting the consumption and consumers' tendency towards Non-GMO products and prioritizing these factors can provide a clear and complete image to the planners and policy makers of the agricultural sector in order to have a comprehensive understanding of the level of demand; and the structures that affect it have complete planning to implement the necessary support policies at the required time and fully respond to the needs of the producers and consumers. In this research, the factors affecting the willingness to consume Non-GMO oils in Zahedan city of Iran were investigated using Heckman's two-stage method presented in 2022. According to the size of the population, based on Cochran's formula, a sample size of 300 people was selected in a simple random sampling method, and a researcher-made questionnaire was distributed and collected among them. The results of the probit model showed that the most positive and significant effect in terms of the value of the given total elasticity was related to individual attitude by 0.61; that is, the households would include Non-GMO oils in their shopping basket and replace Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) oils when they have the necessary knowledge about the value and health of Non-GMO oils and are aware of their benefits and harms. After the individual attitude, education has the most positive and significant effect with a coefficient of 0.24, which can be said that the level of education and individual attitude are probably consistent and the level of education can also influence the change of people's attitude towards health. After the two above-mentioned variables, income status of household has a positive and significant effect on the willingness to consume the Non-GMO oils, because considering the high price of these oils compared to the GMO oils, the higher the purchasing power of the household, the greater the willingness of households to consume the Non-GMO oils, which will increase in line with the health of the family. The results of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model were similar to the results of the probit model and showed that the three variables of individual attitude, level of education and income status of household head had the highest positive effect on the tendency to consume Non-GMO oils by 0.33, 0.57 and 0.15, respectively. According to the results, it can be suggested that by informing people in the society and changing people's attitudes as well as by improving the level of education and the income of people, it could be expected that the willingness to consume the Non-GMO oils in Zahedan city would increase.

Due to the increase in population and the need to provide food and preserve the environment, the importance of the water crisis has increased in the years leading to the third millennium and the beginning of the 21st century. The reduction of underground and surface water resources and the destruction of the environment and water ecosystems are signs of the water crisis in Iran and the world. On the other hand, the production of agricultural products is associated with the creation of environmental effects, especially water and soil pollution (due to the use of pesticides and as a result, the loss of environmental balance). Therefore, there is a need for policy-makers to have indicators in the field of the effects of agricultural activities on natural resources and the environment, so that they can measure the economic and environmental effects. The water footprint index was first introduced by Hoekstra and Hung in 2002; and over recent years, it has been widely used by experts in different parts of the world. The water footprint is a multidimensional indicator that shows the volume of water consumed by the type of water source and the volume of polluted water by the type of pollutant. All components of the total water footprint are determined by time and place. The water footprint consists of three components, including blue water footprint, green water footprint and gray water footprint. Therefore, given the importance of sustainability of water resources, in this study, by considering the components of water footprint as inputs in the production function, the economic-environmental efficiency was estimated using the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA) for the production of barley in Iran; specifically, Water Footprint- Stochastic Frontier Approach (WF-SFA) framework was used to analyze the economic-environmental efficiency of barley production. Thus, in this study, in order to estimate the environmental effects, the water footprint index was used and the economic-environmental efficiency of barley production was estimated. For this purpose, the components of barley water footprint were calculated in the provinces producing this product. Then, the economic-environmental efficiency of barley production in the provinces of Iran was calculated. In the first step, in order to calculate the water footprint, meteorological data was collected for the cities that had the highest level of barley cultivation in each province. This information included average wind speed (m/s), maximum temperature (c), minimum temperature (c), average temperature, 24-hour precipitation (mm), maximum relative humidity (%), minimum relative humidity (%), average relative humidity (%), sunny hours and daily radiation amount. The total water footprint during crop growth (WF) is the sum of blue, green and gray water components. After calculating the components of barely water footprint in the provinces of the country following Battese and Coelli (1995), an SFA model was created for barely production. In the year t, for the i province, the basic stochastic frontier production where yit is the product obtainable from input Xit (subtraction of inputs) and β is the vector of unknown parameters; in addition, vit represents random errors that are assumed to have a normal distribution with zero mean and variance σv2 and is distributed independently of uit.In this study, in order to calculate the economic-environmental efficiency using the stochastic frontier production function, the appropriate production function form was first selected. The forms of the production function examined in this study are Cobb-Douglas and Translog. After choosing the appropriate production function and model type, the stochastic frontier production function was estimated by the maximum likelihood method as well as the economic-environmental efficiency of barley production was estimated. By examining different barley producing provinces, it could be seen that the highest amount of total water footprint was related to the provinces of Ilam, Kerman, Sistan and Baluchistan and South Khorasan and the lowest amount was related to the provinces of Tehran, Golestan, Qazvin and Ardabil. The total amount of water footprint for most provinces was in the range of 3 to 4 thousand cubic meters. Also, the results showed that the barley water footprint in Iran did not follow a very specific geographical pattern, but in tropical and low-rainfall provinces such as Sistan and Baluchistan, the water footprint was higher and the main difference between the water footprints of the provinces was due to the blue water footprint. The results of the estimation of the stochastic frontier production function of barley production using the variable efficiency model over time showed that the combined input variables, blue water footprint and green water footprint had a significant effect on the production of this product. In this regard, the positive coefficient of the combined input variable (X1) and the green water footprint (X4) indicated that assuming the constancy of other conditions, a 1% increase in the amount of each of these variables would lead to an increase of about 1% in the production of barley among the provinces. These findings indicated the low level of accumulation of combined inputs in the production of barley due to the low production rate of this product and also the low amount of precipitation in the country. The labor force variable (X2) was not statistically significant; and the coefficient of this variable in the estimated production function indicated that the labor force had a very small positive effect on the efficiency of barley production. Therefore, due to the very low contribution of labor in barley production, it is expected that the amount of barley production in Iran will increase with the increase in the degree of mechanization.  The final results showed that the provinces of Ilam, Qom, and Isfahan had the lowest economic-environmental efficiency, and the provinces of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, Kermanshah, and Kurdistan had the highest economic-environmental efficiency in barley production, respectively. The overall average economic and environmental efficiency of wheat production was estimated at 0.94. Furthermore, the results of the estimation of the inefficiency model showed that the economic and environmental efficiency of barley production was higher for regions with higher per capita GDP and more rainfall. In other words, the variables of per capita GDP and annual rainfall negatively affect the economic and environmental inefficiency of barely. So, it is suggested to evaluate the effects of human and social capital on the economic-environmental efficiency of agricultural production in future studies. It is also suggested to follow the following methods to reduce pollution and preserve the environment: changing production methods, more efficient management and the use of superior technologies by ineffective provinces (for example, new irrigation methods to reduce the water footprint), the use of green fertilizers and so-called low-risk chemical fertilizers approved by international organizations to reduce the gray water footprint as one of the factors that reduce the efficiency and biological control instead of using pesticides (to reduce the gray water footprint) to eliminate pests. On the other hand, encouraging incentives and punishments are also very effective for farmers. The government should think of incentive measures to encourage efficient sectors; for example, it can give the priority of using resources with lower prices to farmers who produce less environmental pollution by using fewer chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Paying subsidies to efficient producers is also effective. On the other hand, environmental regulations should be set for producers. Establishing a tax on undesirable products to increase the motivation of producers and farmers to use environmentally friendly methods and techniques is also very effective.

Given the important progress in economic activities, the agricultural sector still has a special position in the field of economy and security of society. The importance and central role of the agricultural sector in the national economy in terms of the food security, providing employment, exporting agricultural products and food industries, as well as providing raw materials for many industries are undeniable. Iran's agricultural sector has experienced positive developments over recent years, but it faces various problems and challenges. Agricultural land fragmentation is one of the main challenges of Iran's agriculture, which can affect agricultural production, rural development, labor supply, food security, and land use change. Consolidation of agricultural lands is a logical and practical solution to the changes caused by smallness and fragmentation of lands. Therefore, formulation of land integration strategies is considered as the main component of land management and prevention of land fragmentation. Thus, this study mainly aimed at providing agricultural land integration strategies, so that the planners and plan implementation officials could advance the implementation as desirable as its application to consolidate the agricultural lands. This study used SWOT analysis to find solutions for the land consolidation; in addition, library and field methods (questionnaire and interviews) were used to collect data. For this purpose, a list of strategic factors (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) was prepared based on document and library reviews and interviews with 45 experts from the headquarters and provincial departments of the Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ), who were familiar with the subject, and by completing the questionnaires regarding the Internal Factor Evaluation (IEF) and External Factor Evaluation (EFE). The Internal and External Matrices (IEM) were used to determine the strategic position of the land consolidation. The average of the opinions received from staff and provincial experts indicated that the score for evaluating internal factors was 2.72 and for evaluating external factors was 2.94. Based on this, intersection point of internal and external matrix scores was located in the area of SO strategy, which meant that in the framework of this strategy, the land consolidation measures should be carried out using internal strengths and external opportunities. It is obvious that in order to be able to use the 8 SO strategies obtained optimally, the MAJ should pay attention to the implementation of ST, WT and WO strategies with the cooperation and participation of other authorities. The study results indicated that it was necessary to formulate a strategic and operational plan for the land consolidation according to the different dimensions and aspects of the issue. It was also found necessary to take some measures as follows: the most appropriate use of the capacities and facilities of effective external and internal organizations; formulation and implementation of supportive and encouraging laws and regulations to maintain the land use and strict supervision to prevent the land use change; improving the beneficiaries’ awareness and informing them of the economic and social results of the land consolidation; and finally, the government investment and credit provision as well as granting appropriate credit and banking facilities to the concerned farmers.

Necessary access to protein products plays a very important role in ensuring the health and food security of the society. Therefore, due to the importance of food security, adequate, sufficient and cheap access to protein products has always been one of the main goals of agricultural development programs in Iran. The payment of various foreign currency and IRI rials subsidies in the field of market regulation, price control and periodical supervision are among the most important policies in supporting the consumption of protein products in Iran. Nevertheless, a review of long-term statistics shows that the per capita consumption of many protein products in Iran has decreased. Naturally, one of the most important reasons for people's lack of stable access to food and agricultural products, including protein products, should be sought in the repeated price fluctuations associated with these products. In such a way that, with the increase in the price of these products, it becomes difficult for the households to provide them with the desired and suitable products, and the level of welfare of the consumers is reduced. Exchange rate volatility is a problem that plays a significant role in the price fluctuations of food products in developing countries, especially countries where a significant part of their food supply is dependent on foreign countries. Therefore, in this study, the spillover analysis of exchange rate fluctuations on the price of protein products in urban and rural areas of Iran was analyzed. The occurrence of fluctuation or variance of conditional heteroskedasticity over time is one of the characteristics of the price in all types of financial markets. Fluctuation spillover also means that there may be a connection between fluctuations in different markets so that existing fluctuations can be transferred from one market to another. In conventional econometric models, it is assumed that the variance is a component of disturbance in the whole sample; but usually, many economic time series go through some periods with large fluctuations and periods with little changes. Therefore, under these conditions, the assumption of constant variance or homoscedasticity variance does not seem very logical. On the other hand, in many cases, predicting the conditional variance of a series of data will be of special importance. Therefore, the use of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, especially the multivariate GARCH (MVGARCH) approach, has become common in this regard. Therefore, in this study, the MVGARCH approach and time series data from May 2002 to December 2021 by separate urban and rural areas were used for the desired analysis.  The study results showed that the occurrence of a shock in the currency market in any period would only lead to current fluctuations in the market of milk, cheese and eggs in urban areas and would not affect the current fluctuations in the markets of red and white meat and seafood in these areas; in addition, the fluctuation in the currency market in each period would significantly spill over to the protein products market in the cities in the next period. According to the results, the spillover of the fluctuation of the currency market to the protein products market in urban areas is more effective in the red and white meat market and the aquatic products market rather than the milk, cheese and eggs market. The results also showed that the volatility spillover among the three protein markets in urban areas is not significant. Regarding the rural areas, the results showed that the occurrence of a shock in the currency market, despite having an effect on the market fluctuations of the milk, cheese and eggs market and the seafood market, would not have a significant effect on the price fluctuations of the red and white meat market; in addition, the occurrence of a shock in the currency market, despite having an effect on the fluctuations of milk, cheese and eggs market and seafood market, would not have a significant effect on the price fluctuations of the red and white meat market; also, among the three protein markets, the red and white meat market is not affected by the fluctuations of the currency market. In addition, the results showed that unlike the urban areas, in the rural areas, the spillover fluctuation among the triple markets of protein products would mainly occur in an indirect direction. The analysis of the study results showed that the shock and fluctuation of the exchange rate to a large extent would spill over into the markets of protein products in the urban and rural areas; however, there would be differences between the markets and their susceptibility to volatility and currency shocks, among which the difference in the effectiveness of red and white meat from exchange rate fluctuation could be mentioned, which would not happen in the rural areas, unlike the urban areas, where exchange rate fluctuation overflows. Another difference is that there is no spillover between the protein product markets in the cities, while in rural areas, the fluctuations are indirect and reversed. Therefore, it is inferred that if any factor, including exchange rate fluctuations, causes price fluctuations in one of the protein product markets, this fluctuation does not accumulate in the urban areas between markets. At the same time, in the rural areas, the intensity of fluctuations between markets is reduced to a great extent. In justifying these differences, it can be said that mainly in the cities, the management policies of the protein products market are done by controlling the price and monitoring the market, spending a lot of money and energy, while in the villages, the relative abundance of the supply of products, on the one hand, and the limited income of the rural residents, on another hand, prevent the price fluctuations to some extent. Therefore, as a recommendation, the study emphasized the relative adjustment of policies, shifting from consumer protection policies towards producer protection policies aiming at increasing the supply and regulating the price of protein products.

Water shortage is one of the major problems of most countries in the world, especially countries with a growing population. The only solution to this crisis is the optimal use and increasing the productivity of water resources in various sectors, especially the agricultural sector. Therefore, it seems necessary to plan for optimal use of resources and economic allocation of this scarce factor among different uses. Multi-Stage Interval Programming (MSIP) method consists of the combination of dynamic and interval programming in the framework of stochastic optimization. The dynamics of the model, the application of a predefined policy during the optimization process, and the use of interval parameters and probabilities under the uncertainty conditions are among the advantages of this technique. Multi-Stage Interval Stochastic Programming (MSISP) is the application of interval parameters under the uncertainty conditions and considering the farmer's profit and loss during water supply or shortage. Also, the mentioned model presents the values ​​of water shortage during the programming period and gives farmers the opportunity to plan to face the water crisis. In fact, this model is a model between the primary goals of exploitation and economic goals. Since the water supply for the region over time is a random variable, using the simulation method and the use of random numbers for different years, water supply was simulated 100 times randomly. These numbers were taken into account by considering an interval using the maximum and minimum of the past data and their standard deviation. It is worth mentioning that the 100 random selections of the amount of supply for the low water flow state were selected from dry years and for the other two states from normal and wet years, respectively. In general, since water is very important in dry areas, especially in the Sistan region of Iran, and water-saving in consumption and most importantly, the efficiency of water consumption is one of the main priorities, any research leading to an increase in the water-productivity and water-saving in the use of this valuable input will help the region.