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مهندسی اکوسیستم بیابان - پیاپی 39 (تابستان 1402)

نشریه مهندسی اکوسیستم بیابان
پیاپی 39 (تابستان 1402)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1403/02/02
  • تعداد عناوین: 7
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  • مرتضی اکبری*، علی اصغر طالبان فرد، مهسا پاکدین، مریم شاهرخی صفحات 1-22

    پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارزیابی شدت خطر بیابان زایی براساس مدل جهانی ESAs و ارائه راهبردهای مدیریتی مبتنی بر برنامه ریزی سناریو در خراسان رضوی انجام شد. در این تحقیق از 5 معیار اقلیم، خاک، پوشش گیاهی، فرسایش و مدیریت انسانی و 20 شاخص استفاده شد. امتیازدهی شاخص ها با استفاده از پرسشنامه و براساس نظرات کارشناسان، مدیران و افراد باتجربه در موضوع بیابان زایی و به همراه بازدیدهای میدانی صورت گرفت. ارائه راهبردها و استراتژی های مدیریتی نیز به روش دلفی، برنامه ریزی سناریو و در قالب پنل های کارشناسی انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد که معیار پوشش گیاهی با ارزش 419/1، بیشترین اهمیت را در گسترش بیابان زایی خراسان رضوی داشته است. سپس، معیارهای مدیریت انسانی، اقلیم، فرسایش و خاک نیز به ترتیب مهم ترین عوامل شدت خطر بیابان زایی بوده اند. بخش های شمال غربی استان به دلیل تغییرات شدید کاربری اراضی و شدت فرسایش آبی و بخش های مرکزی، شرقی و جنوبی نیز به دلیل استمرار خشکسالی، تخریب پوشش گیاهی و شدت فرسایش بادی در شرایط بحرانی بیابان زایی قرار دارند. این موضوع می تواند یک هشدار جدی برای مدیریت اراضی در خراسان رضوی باشد؛ لذا برای کاهش خطر بیابان ز ایی، 6 راهبرد مدیریتی و 41 استراتژی اجرایی در قالب سه رویکرد مبتنی بر توسعه پایدار و تحلیل سناریوهای آینده نگر پیشنهاد شد.

    کلیدواژگان: آینده پژوهشی، تخریب سرزمین، روش دلفی، شاخص، فرسایش خاک
  • مهران اکبرزاده، حمید نوری*، ثمر مرتضوی، بهناز عطائیان صفحات 23-42

    امروزه از مهم ترین چالش های جوامع انسانی، تغییرات اقلیمی است و بررسی این تغییرات به دلیل تاثیر گسترده آن بر موجودات زنده از اهمیت بسزایی برخوردار است. در این پژوهش به پیش بینی و بررسی پارامترهای دمای حداکثر، بارش و دمای میانگین تحت سه سناریوی RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5و کاربست مدل SDSM در 11 استان غربی کشور در دو دوره 20212036 و 20362100 نسبت به دوره پایه 19902020 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج مدل نشان داد که بارش در بازه زمانی 20212035 نسبت به دوره پایه از 50/2 تا 86/3 درصد و در بازه زمانی 20362100 نیز 02/10 تا 73/15 درصد تغییر نسبت به دوره پایه خواهد داشت و بیشترین تغییر در میزان بارش در استان های آذربایجان شرقی و غربی رخ خواهد داد. بررسی دمای حداکثر در بازه زمانی 20212035 نسبت به دوره پایه از 2/0 تا 89/0 درجه سانتی گراد افزایش بیشینه دما در سطح منطقه مورد مطالعه اتفاق خواهد افتاد و در بازه زمانی 20362100 نیز بیشینه دما از 86/0 تا 89/0 درجه سانتی گراد نسبت به داده های دوره پایه افزایش خواهد یافت و بیشترین تغییر در میزان دمای حداکثر در جنوب استان فارس و مناطق مرزی استان کرمانشاه رخ خواهد داد و بررسی دمای میانگین هم در بازه زمانی اول از 05/0 تا 07/5 درصد افزایش دما را نشان می دهد و در بازه زمانی دوم نیز 47/4 تا 05/5 درصد افزایش میانگین دما نسبت به داده های پایه خواهیم داشت. کمترین تغییرات در پارامترهای مورد مطالعه مربوط به سناریو RCP2.6 و بیشترین تغییرات مربوط به سناریو RCP8.5 به دست آمد.

    کلیدواژگان: تغییر اقلیم، تغییرات بارش، مدل GCM، SDSM
  • کاظم رنگزن*، فاطمه بالویی صفحات 43-60

    طوفان گردوغبار، فرایند پیچیده ای است که تحت تاثیر فعل وانفعالات سامانه های جوی قرار دارد و اساسا شرایطی مانند سرعت زیاد باد، خاک برهنه و هوای خشک باعث ایجاد آن می شود. محصولات آئروسل MODIS، پرمصرف ترین محصولات در مقیاس منطقه ای و جهانی در مطالعات گردوغبار هستند. این مطالعه با هدف پایش گردوغبار و بررسی ارتباط آن با عوامل مختلف توپوگرافی (درجه شیب، جهت شیب و ارتفاع)، پوشش گیاهی و اقلیم (عامل بارش) با استفاده از رگرسیون خطی و به کمک تکنیک های سنجش از دور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی در استان خوزستان صورت گرفت. نتایج ارتباط گردوغبار با عوامل ذکرشده نشان داد از بین تمام عوامل، ارتفاع و جهت شیب بیشترین همبستگی به ترتیب (83 درصد) و (72 درصد) را با پدیده گردوغبار در جهت عکس دارند؛ به طوری که افزایش در مقدار ارتفاع باعث کاهش گردوغبار و جهت های رو به جنوب و مناطق هموار، افزایش در مقدار این پدیده را خواهند داشت. بررسی معناداری همبستگی میان عامل گردوغبار با فاکتورهای درجه شیب، جهت شیب، بارش و ارتفاع با استفاده از آماره p-value و در سطح 95 درصد اطمینان انجام گرفت. مقدار p-value به ترتیب برای هرکدام از عوامل مذکور به ترتیب 001/0، 00/0، 00/0 و 004/0 به دست آمد. براساس نتایج به دست آمده، بین گردوغبار و عوامل درجه شیب، جهت شیب، بارش و ارتفاع رابطه معناداری برقرار است. نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد که با بهره گیری از تکنیک های سنجش از دور می توان به شناسایی کانون های گردوغبار به عنوان ابزار ارزشمندی به منظور مبارزه با عامل بیابان زایی استفاده کرد.

    کلیدواژگان: مادیس، عمق اپتیکی آئروسل (AOD)، سری زمانی، توپوگرافی، اقلیم، پوشش گیاهی
  • علیرضا محمودی*، کمال غلامی پورفرد صفحات 61-74

    گیاه پنج انگشت یکی از گیاهان دارویی است که در زیست بوم های طبیعی خشک و اغلب در حاشیه رودخانه های فصلی، بستر مسیل ها و دامنه اراضی آبرفتی ارتفاعات مرکزی کشور می روید. استان فارس یکی از رویشگاه های مهم این گیاه است و جمع آوری اطلاعات درباره پراکنش این گیاه در نقاط مختلف استان فارس اهمیت دارد. بررسی ها نشان داده است که گیاه دارویی پنج انگشت اثرات دارویی متنوعی دارد و به طور فراوان در طب سنتی استفاده می شود. هدف از این پژوهش، بررسی فیتوشیمیایی اسانس گیاه دارویی پنج انگشت رشدیافته در رویشگاه های طبیعی شهرستان داراب است. برگ های گیاه از مناطق مختلف در رویشگاه طبیعی از لایه های مختلف ارتفاعی برداشت شدند. نمونه ها بعد از خشک شدن در دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی داراب به کمک دستگاه کلونجر و با روش تقطیر با آب اسانس گیری شد. برای شناسایی ترکیب های اسانس از دستگاه گاز کروماتوگرافی (GC/Mas) استفاده شد. با استخراج و آنالیز اسانس پنج انگشت در رویشگاه های مختلف در شهرستان داراب، 43 ترکیب شیمیایی متفاوت شناسایی شد. درصد بازده اسانس به ترتیب در مناطق مختلف رویشگاه این گیاه در شهرستان داراب شامل فتح آباد (6/0)، اعراب چگینی (4/0)، جنت شهر (5/0)، تنگ کتویه (3/0)، تنگه رغز (2/0)، آب باریک (7/0) و فسارود (9/0) است. میانگین بیشترین ترکیب های شیمیایی موجود در اسانس پنج انگشت در رویشگاه های مختلف شهرستان شامل آلفا-پینن (40/50 درصد)، لیمونن (98/14درصد)، (ای)-کاریوفیلن (55/8 درصد)، سابینن (54/3 درصد) و میرسن (44/2 درصد) است. براساس پژوهش حاضر، اسانس این گیاه می تواند به عنوان یک منبع طبیعی غنی از ترکیب شیمیایی آلفا-پینن، مورد توجه شرکت های داروسازی قرار گیرد. استخراج ترکیب آلفا-پینن از اسانس گیاه پنج انگشت می تواند سودآوری و ارزآوری بالای برای فعالان این حوزه در داخل داشته باشد و از خروج ارز از کشور جلوگیری کند. با توجه به بردباری این درختچه به شرایط بوم شناختی اراضی نیمه بیابانی و زیبایی منظر می توان به ارزش دارویی گیاه نیز توجه بیشتری شود.

    کلیدواژگان: بنگرو، Vitex pseudo-negundo، کلونجر، اسانس، ترکیب های شیمیایی
  • پروانه سبحانی، افشین دانه کار* صفحات 75-88

    اثرات ناشی از تغییرات اقلیم ‏منجر به پیامدهایی ‏‏ همچون افزایش سطح دریا و طوفان های دریایی، تغییر در روند بارش ها، ‏افزایش دما و کاهش وسعت رویشگاه های مانگرو ‏شده است. در مطالعه ‏حاضر با استفاده از داده های مدل گردش ‏عمومی جو (‏HadCM3‎‏) تحت سناریوهای ‏RCP2.6‎‏ و ‏RCP8.5 و به کارگیری مدل ‏SDSM‏ ‏به شبیه سازی اقلیمی پارامترهای بارش و دمای حداقل، حداکثر و ‏میانگین دما در دوره های 19962022 و دوره های ‏‏20222050 در جنگل های مانگرو ذخیره گاه ‏زیست کره حرا پرداخته شد. علاوه بر این، با استفاده از روش دومارتن، به تعیین ‏اقلیم محدوده مورد مطالعه اقدام گردید.‏ نتایج نشان داد که مقادیر ‏پارامترهای ‏اقلیمی مورد بررسی از دقت مطلوبی برخوردارند و ‏بیشترین میزان صحت سنجی مدل در بین پارامترهای ‏اقلیمی، مربوط به ‏میانگین دما و کمترین میزان، به حداکثر دما اختصاص یافته است. نتایج پیش بینی تغییرات دما در دوره های 20222050 ‏در مقایسه با دوره های 19962022 حاکی از ‏آن است که ‏میانگین دما تحت سناریوهای ‏RCP2.6‎ و ‏RCP8.5 افزایش خواهد یافت؛ که ‏بیشترین افزایش روند ‏تغییرات ‏حداکثر و حداقل دما در این منطقه، مربوط به مردادماه است. همچنین میانگین بارش ها در ‏دوره های 20222050 نیز کاهش خواهد یافت که بیشترین روند کاهشی بارش ها مربوط به دی ماه تحت سناریو ‏‏ RCP2.6‎‏و ‏کمترین ‏روند ‏کاهشی در تیرماه تحت سناریو ‏RCP8.5‎‏ قابل مشاهده است.‏ مطابق نتایج به دست آمده از ضریب خشکی ‏دومارتن، نوع اقلیم منطقه در ‏دوره های مشاهداتی و آتی به طبقه خشک اختصاص یافته است و ‏تغییری در دوره های آتی ‏مشاهده نمی شود. در این راستا، تغییرات اقلیم در جنگل های مانگرو ذخیره گاه زیست کره حرا یکی از عمده ترین تهدیدات ‏‏شناخته شده در این منطقه محسوب می شود که با شبیه سازی و پیش بینی این تغییرات در دوره های آتی، می توان به ‏فعالیت های حفاظت و احیای آینده این ذخایر ارزشمند زیستی کمک نمود. ‏

    کلیدواژگان: پیش نگری اقلیم، مدل ‏SDSM، جنگل های حرا، منطقه حفاظت شده حرا، جزیره قشم، بندر خمیر
  • خدیجه جوان*، آمنه یحیوی دیزج صفحات 89-102

    شاخص خشکی به عنوان نسبت بین تبخیر و تعرق (دما) و بارندگی، بیانگر ویژگی های آب وهوایی یک منطقه است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل زمانی و مکانی شاخص های خشکی UNEP و دومارتن در ایران با داده های دمای میانگین (°C)، متوسط رطوبت نسبی (%)، سرعت باد (m/s) و ساعت آفتابی (h) 40 ایستگاه سینوپتیک به بررسی 45 ساله طبقه بندی اقلیم ایران پرداخت. بارش، دما و تبخیر و تعرق مرجع، پهنه بندی و روند تغییرات شاخص های خشکی با آزمون من-کندال تحلیل شد. نتایج شاخص UNEP نشان داد بیش از سه چهارم ایستگاه ها دارای اقلیم بسیار خشک، خشک، نیمه خشک و مدیترانه ای هستند که ازنظر توزیع مکانی در مناطق جنوب غرب، جنوب، جنوب شرق، مرکز، شمال غرب، غرب، شمال شرق کشور گسترش یافته و ازلحاظ اقلیمی مستعد وقوع پدیده بیابان زایی هستند. نتایج شاخص خشکی دومارتن نیز منطبق بر شاخص UNEP است. براساس نتایج بررسی بارش، دما و تبخیر و تعرق مرجع در مناطق خشک، کاهش میزان بارش، افزایش دما و تبخیر و تعرق مرجع سبب افزایش نیاز آبی گیاهان و کاهش رطوبت خاک شده است. آزمون من-کندال حاکی از روند کاهشی معنا دار در سطوح اطمینان 99، 95 و 90% در بیش از نیمی از ایستگاه هاست. این امر در شاخص های مورد بررسی بیانگر خشکی اقلیم است.

    کلیدواژگان: ایران، شاخص خشکی UNEP، شاخص خشکی دمارتن، روند، من-کندال
  • سید امیر امیری زاد، احمد نوحه گر* صفحات 103-119

    پژوهش حاضر در راستای شناسایی وارونگی های دمایی، شدت و ارتباط آن با آلاینده های جوی در منطقه صنعتی غرب بندرعباس انجام شد. برای دستیابی به این رهیافت، ابتدا گلباد منطقه ترسیم شد؛ سپس با دریافت داده های میانی جو از رادیوسوند بندرعباس و ترسیم نمودار اسکیوتی، روزهای وارونگی دمایی استخراج شد. فراوانی و نوع وارونگی ها در مقیاس ماهانه و فصلی بررسی شد. برای مدل سازی احتمال وقوع وارونگی، رگرسیون لجستیک بر داده ها برازش داده شد. شدت وارونگی نیز در مقیاس ماهانه بررسی شد و معادله خطی آن با رگرسیون چندگانه ترسیم شد. میزان پارامترهای جوی در روزهای وارونگی و عدم وارونگی با آزمون تی استیودنت بررسی شد و درنهایت ارتباط بین غلظت آلاینده های جوی با وارونگی ها شناسایی شد. نتایج نشان داد باد غالب در منطقه، جنوب شرقی است که از دریای خلیج فارس به سمت خشکی می وزد. در منطقه، 223 روز از سال وارونگی اتفاق می افتد که 157 مورد از آن تابشی و 66 مورد فرونشینی است. وارونگی ها در زمستان و بهار بیشتر از تابستان و پاییز است. پایه وارونگی در زمستان در 10 متری است؛ اما در تابستان ریزش دینامیکی هوای گرم باعث تشکیل وارونگی فرونشینی می شود و ارتفاع پایه لایه به بیش از 100 متر می رسد. حدود 2/51 درصد وارونگی ها شدت ضعیف، 9/37 درصد متوسط، 7/7 درصد شدت زیاد و 3 درصد شدت خیلی زیاد است. وارونگی بیشترین تاثیر را بر ذرات معلق و ازن دارد؛ به طوری که وارونگی باعث شده است که غلظت ذرات معلق سالانه حدود 52 پی پی ام نسبت به شرایط عدم وارونگی افزایش یابد.

    کلیدواژگان: وارونگی دما، رگرسیون لجستیک، آلودگی هوا، ذرات معلق، بندرعباس
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  • Morteza Akbari *, Aliasghar Talebanfard, Mahsa Pakdin, Maryam Shahrokhi Pages 1-22
    Introduction

    Desertification is one of the most significant process of land degradation in all the world, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification report (1994), Desertification is land degradation in dry-lands, resulting from various factors, including both climatic variations and human activities. This process is always associated with soil degradation, pollution and reduction of water resources, vegetation and other biological resources in natural and ecological conditions. Therefore, determining the main factors of this process can be very effective in proper land management. This research was conducted with the aim of zoning sensitivity areas to the desertification intensity based on ESAs model and providing management strategies based on scenario planning in Razavi Khorasan province.

    Materials and Methods

    In this research, five criteria such as climatic quality, soil, vegetation, erosion and management (human activities), and 20 indicators such as soil texture, soil depth, rock fragment, parent Material, vegetation density, fire risk, rainfall. drought, water and wind erosion, land use change, mining, livestock density in pasture, etc. were used. were used. Scoring and weighting of the indicators was done using a questionnaire and based on the expert opinions of specialists, executive managers and field experiments. The designed questionnaire included 21 questions, that classified in the form of 5 criteria of soil, climate, vegetation, erosion and management, which were distributed among the statistical population in two rounds. Management strategies and policies were also obtained in the Delphi method in the form of expert panels (brainstorming).

    Results and Discussion

    The results showed that the vegetation criteria with indicators such as the reduction of vegetation, the increase in the risk of fire in pastures and forests due to the continuous droughts of the past two decades and the increase in the intensity of wind and water erosion, with a value of 1.419, has had the greatest value and importance in expansion the intensity of desertification. After that, factors such as human activities (management), climate, erosion and soil respectively have had the greatest impact on the sensitivity areas to desertification in Khorasan Razavi province. In terms of the critical situation, the high percentage of the areas in the northwestern regions such as Quchan and Chenaran township due to the impacts of drought, severe changes in land use and water has become desertification. In the central, eastern and southern parts due to drought, land use changes, lack of optimal land management and wind erosion, main reason has been the expansion of desertification. Besides that, all the townships of Khorasan Razavi province have fragile conditions. This issue can be considered as an important and serious warning for the future management of Khorasan Razavi province. Therefore, in order to provide effective ways to deal with the intensity of desertification, based on the opinion of experts and specialists in the current research, by considering only the priority indicators of each of the criteria, the number of 10 cross matrix of the important indicators of each of the criteria, 20 scenarios, 6 strategies and more than 40 strategies were obtained. So that, by using the suggested strategies could be planned and managed according to regional and local conditions, to reduce the intensity of desertification.

    Conclusions

    The ESAs model uses four criteria of management, vegetation, soil quality and climate mainly to evaluate areas sensitive to desertification. So that, in this research, due to the importance of the erosion (water and wind erosion), for zoning map of sensitivity areas to desertification were used. In order to provide management plans (strategies and policy), to reduce and combat desertification in Khorasan Razavi province, management strategies such as; -sustainable management of vegetation, - water resources management and watershed management, - soil management, - livestock management and reduction of environmental hazards caused by human activities, -education, promotion and culture and sustainable management. Therefore, in this research, only the important strategies and policy that can provide a comprehensive vision of land management in Khorasan Razavi province, were suggested.

    Keywords: Delphi method, Futures studies, Index, Land degradation, Soil erosion
  • mehran akbarzadeh, Hamid Nouri *, Samar Mortazavi, behnaz attaeian Pages 23-42
    Introduction

    Considering its pervasive influence on live creatures, climate change is currently considered one of the most crucial challenges facing human societies, the investigation of which is of great significance. Moreover, climate change exerts an adverse influence on biological resources, the natural environment, and water sources, causing various environmental, social, and economic consequences. Therefore, this study sought to investigate and predict the parameters involved in climate change, including maximum temperature, precipitation, and average temperature under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Furthermore, the applicability of the SDSM model was tested on eleven western provinces of Iran. To this end, first, the predictive variables such as temperature and precipitation were downscaled using combined regression techniques and a small-scale stochastic weather generator, and the required data were collected from the site of the monitoring station. Then, variations in maximum temperature, average temperature, and precipitation for the 2021-2036 and 2036-2100 periods were compared to those of the baseline period (1990-2020). The SDSM model was then validated and its accuracy was assessed using metrics such as MSE, MAPE, RMSE, and MAE.

    Materials and methods

    On the other hand, to verify the accuracy, the data collected for the 1990-2020 period were taken as the actual and observed values, followed by the performance of some simulations with the same data to gauge and measure the accuracy of the extracted data for the 2021-2035 and 2036-2100 periods and compare it with the baseline period (1990-2005). Finally, after confirming the collected data against the actual data of the respective years and determining the accuracy of the four validation methods, the verification process was extended to cover the 1990-2020, 2021-2035, and 2036-2100 periods.

    Result

    The results of the study indicated that the application of the SDSM model led to a reduction in the required accuracy needed for investigating and simulating climate change. Accordingly, the highest MSE, MAPE, RMSE, and MAE values were found under the second scenario (RCP4.5) in Jolfa station (in terms of maximum temperature), Urmia station (in terms of precipitation), Nahavand station (in terms of precipitation), and Zarrineh station (in terms of precipitation), whose reported values were 0.01, 16.90, 0.10, and 0.10, respectively. On the other hand, the lowest values belonged to the second scenario, whose values were reported to be 0.00, 0.41, 0.00, and 0.00, respectively. Moreover, the results obtained from the application of the SDSM downscaling model to the investigation of precipitation under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios revealed that compared to the other two scenarios, the first scenario (RCP2.6) had a higher level of accuracy in predicting precipitation for 2021-2035 and 2036-2100 periods with a small margin of error, simulating precipitation more closely to the observed data in most cases. Furthermore, the model's predictive outcomes suggested that compared to the baseline period, precipitation would undergo changes throughout the 2021-2035 period, ranging from 2.50% to 3.86%. Similarly, it was found that compared to the baseline period the changes would range from 10.02% to 15.73% during the 2036-2100 period. On the other hand, the most significant alterations in precipitation levels were expected to occur in the Iranian Eastern Azerbaijan and Western Azerbaijan provinces. In this regard, the analysis of maximum temperature rates throughout the 2021-2035 period showed that compared to the baseline period, the rise in the maximum temperature across the study region would range from 0.20 to 0.89 degrees. Similarly, the maximum temperature rate would increase from 0.86 to 0.89 degrees during the 2036-2100, compared to that of the baseline data. However, the most substantial changes in the maximum temperature rate were expected to occur in the southern part of the Iranian Fars province and the bordering areas of Kermanshah province.

    Discussion and Conclusion

    As for the average temperature rates, the study found that the temperature would increase from 0.05% to 5.07% during the first time period, and from 4.47% to 5.05% throughout the second period. However, while the least significant alterations in the studied parameters belonged to the RCP2.6 scenario, the most notable changes were found under the RCP8.5 scenario. Moreover, precipitation changes were investigated in forty stations across eleven Iranian provinces throughout the 2021-2035 and 2036-2100 periods, proving a reduction in precipitation rate within both periods, with the decrease being more conspicuous in the second period (2036-2100) under all three severity scenarios. Furthermore, climatic assessments at the station level indicated that the study area would experience a considerable rise in the maximum temperature rate throughout both study periods, with the second period (2036-2100) being expected to witness a more substantial temperature rise. In this regard, all three scenarios showed that the range of increase in the maximum temperature rate would vary from 3.99% to 4.16%, indicating a significant temperature rise in the study area over the coming years. The regions investigated in the current study play a crucial role in supplying water to the central and western Iranian provinces. The regions are also known as significant hubs for agricultural production. Therefore, any changes in weather and climatic parameters in these areas may lead to increased uncertainty in future predictions and planning, requiring the identification of the areas susceptible to risks caused by prospective extreme climate changes. Thus, it is necessary to develop and implement management and operational plans to deal with such changes and to devise the required strategies to mitigate the consequences of those changes and ensure adaptability to the new conditions.

    Keywords: Climate Change, Precipitation Changes, GCM, SDSM
  • Kazem Rangzan *, fatemeh balouei Pages 43-60
    Introduction

    Airborne particles play an important role in the balance of atmospheric radiation and climate change. The relationship between aerosols and climate systems has received increasing attention as our understanding of these issues increases. A dust storm is a complex process that is influenced by the interactions of atmospheric systems and is basically caused by conditions such as high wind speed, bare soil and dry air.

    Materials and methods

    Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is one of the most important parameters in the field of dust related research. Aerosol optical depth actually refers to the distribution of dust aerosols in the atmosphere. In this research, the dust condition was investigated using the AOD parameter of MODIS product. In order to investigate the relationship between environmental factors, NDVI was used. For each year, based on the total images taken, which is about 24 images per year, the average vegetation cover index was calculated in the Google Earth Engine system as a time series. In this study, among the climatic factors, annual rainfall data from synoptic stations were used to investigate the effect of rainfall on the amount of dust changes in the period from 2013 to 2022. Also, a 90-meter DEM was prepared from the SRTM sensor in order to prepare layers of slope percentage, slope direction and elevation classes.

    Results

    In the research, firstly, to evaluate the dust situation, the aerosol optical depth product was obtained from the MODIS sensor. In order to highlight and monitor as much as possible, the dust phenomenon of the months of June to September, corresponding to the late spring and summer season of each year, when the majority of dust storms are concentrated in these months, was chosen. After downloading the images, the 9-year statistical period (2013-2022) was considered as the studied statistical period in Khuzestan province. The average optical depth of dust was obtained each year based on the images taken in the same year. The results show that most of the dust was spread in the years 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, so that a large part of the province faced the dust phenomenon in these years. The investigation of the dust situation in 2013 and 2014 showed that although most of Khuzestan province is facing a relatively low average AOD, the maximum AOD value is related to classes with values of 0.71 to 1.5 and more than 1.5 located in the southwest. is the province; The maximum value of AOD in these years was 2.82 and considering that AOD is between zero and 5 in the mentioned years, the southern regions have faced a high average dust phenomenon. The purpose of this study was to monitor dust and investigate its relationship with various factors of topography, vegetation and climate. The results of dust relationship with the mentioned factors showed that among all the factors, height and slope direction have the highest correlation (83 percent) and (72 percent) respectively with the phenomenon of dust in the opposite direction, so that an increase in the amount of height causes a decrease in dust and south-facing directions. And smooth areas will have an increase in the amount of this phenomenon. Therefore, by using remote sensing techniques, it is possible to identify dust centers as a valuable tool to combat the expression factor.

    Discussion and Conclusion

    Desertification is one of the most obvious ecological and environmental problems in arid and semi-arid regions. n this study, to identify dust spots, changes in the average occurrence of dust storms were obtained using MODIS sensor data from 2013 to 2022, and then its relationship with climatic factors, sun cover with NDVI index, and topography were evaluated. A decrease in the amount of precipitation that can lead to a decrease in soil moisture, vegetation cover and an increase in drought; Also, the changes in land use in recent years are all among the factors that have led to an increase in the phenomenon of dust, especially in Khuzestan province. Examining the influencing factors such as topography, vegetation and climatic factors is of great importance in identifying and prioritizing the control of dust centers, in addition, the MODIS optical depth sensor product can be of great help as a valuable tool for monitoring and managing this event.

    Keywords: MODIS, aerosol optical depth (AOD), time series, topography, climate, vegetation
  • Alireza mahmoodi *, Kamal Gholamipourfard Pages 61-74
    Introduction

     The Vitex pseudo-negundo plant is one of the types of medicinal plants that grow in natural ecosystems and often on the margins of seasonal rivers, dry rivers, mesial beds and alluvial land ranges in the central highlands of the country. Fars province is one of the important habitats of this plant and it is important to collect information about the distribution of this plant in different parts of Fars province. Studies have shown that the plant has anti-cancer, antioxidant, antibacterial, antiviral, disinfectant and antifungal effects, and is also widely used in traditional medicine as an anti-inflammatory, tonic, diuretic, appetite suppressant. It is used as astringent, narcotic, carminative and anti-flatulent. The aim of this research is to investigate the phytochemical contents of the essential oil of the Vitex pseudo-negundo medicinal plant grown in the natural habitats of Darab city.

    Materials and Methods

     At first, the natural habitats of the plant in the city were determined on the map by field survey. In each area, the height above the sea level, latitude and longitude were measured by a positioning device (GPS, Vista model, Taiwan). Due to the high density and abundance of the Vitex pseudo-negundo plant in the Fasarood area of Darab, the physical and chemical characteristics The soil of this habitat, such as soil acidity, electrical conductivity and soil elements, was also recorded through soil sampling and data analysis. Then the fresh leaves of the plant were collected from the habitats in question. In order to prevent undesirable changes, the collected plant organs were dried in the shade at a temperature of 10-20 degrees Celsius. In order to extract essential oil, 100 grams of flowering branches crushed by a mill were extracted by distillation with water using a Clevenger machine for 3 hours in the laboratory of medicinal plants of the Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources of Darab city. Separation of essential oil from the column of the device was done with a special syringe. The resulting essential oils were separated from the surface of the water by anhydrous sulfate, dehumidified, then weighed and then the percentage of essential oil production efficiency was calculated through the formula. After dehydrating, the essential oil was stored in a closed glass container in a refrigerator at a temperature of 4 degrees Celsius until it was injected into the gas chromatograph. Gas chromatography (GC: Gas chromatography) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS: Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry) were used to determine the quantity and quality of essential oil compounds.

    Results and discussion

     One of the important results of this research, compared to the results of similar research on Vitex pseudo-negundo plant in different regions of the country, is the identification of 43 different compounds in Vitex pseudo-negundo plant essential oil by chromatography method. The comparison of the efficiency of essential oils in different regions of the city showed that the percentage of essential oil efficiency was respectively in different areas of the habitat of this plant in Darab city, including Fateh Abad (0.6), Arab Chegini (0.4), Jannet Shahr (0.5). , Katouye strait (0.3), Raghaz strait (0.2), Ab Barik (0.7) and Fasarood (0.9). According to the present research, the percentage of essential oil in the habitats of Darab city was determined between 0.2 and 0.9, which compared to previous researches, Vitex pseudo-negundo habitats in Darab city had a higher percentage of essential oil in some places such as Fasaroud (Korsia). According to the different compounds identified in the essential oil of Vitex pseudo-negundo, it was found that monoterpenes were the main group of constituents of the essential oil, followed by hydrocarbon sesquiterpenes, which was consistent with previous research. has it. The highest compounds identified in Vitex pseudo-negundo plant in different habitats of the city, respectively, include alpha-pinene (50.40%), limonene (14.98%), e-caryophyllene (8.55%), sabinene ( 3.54 percent) and Mirsen (2.44 percent). According to the present research, the essential oil of this plant can be considered by pharmaceutical companies as a natural source rich in alpha-pinene chemical composition. Extraction of the alpha-pinene compound from the essential oil of of Vitex pseudo-negundo plant can be profitable and earn high currency for the activists of this field inside and prevent foreign exchange from leaving the country. Considering the tolerance of this shrub to the ecological conditions of semi-desert lands and the beauty of the landscape, more attention can be paid to the medicinal value of the plant.

    Keywords: Vitex Pseudo-Negundo, Celevenger, Essential Oil, Chemical Compounds
  • Parvaneh Sobhani *, Afshin Danehkar Pages 75-88
    Introduction

    Global warming has disrupted the climate balance in recent decades, causing extensive changes in different regions worldwide. In other words, climate change has influenced all biological processes by changing the temperature, precipitation, and other climatic variables’ patterns, leading to alterations in the ecosystem’s function and biodiversity loss, especially in dry and semi-arid regions. On the other hand, climate change is regarded as a main threat to mangrove forests, bringing about consequences such as increased sea levels, the occurrence of sea storms, alterations in precipitation patterns, increased temperature, and decreased coverage area of mangrove habitats. Therefore, simulating and predicting the prospective changes in the climate of mangrove forests can offer valuable suggestions for controlling the adverse effects of climate change and reducing the vulnerability of such natural ecosystems.

    Materials and methods

    This study sought to simulate precipitation, and minimum, maximum, and average temperature rates in the mangrove forests’ biosphere reserve throughout the observation period (1996-2022) and the future period (2022-2050) using the data collected from the HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) and the SDSM under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition, the De Martonne method was used to identify the climate of the study area during the observation and future periods.

    Results

    A comparison of the results obtained for the observation and the baseline periods (1996-2022) indicated that the obtained values of the investigated climatic parameters enjoyed great accuracy, with the highest and lowest levels of model validation belonging to the average and maximum temperature rates, respectively. Furthermore, the predictions made for temperature changes for the 2022-2050 period, as compared to the 1996-2022 period, suggested that the average temperature would rise under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Additionally, the results indicated that the area’s maximum and minimum temperature rates would experience the highest increase, particularly in July. On the other hand, the results showed that the average precipitation would decrease throughout the 2022-2050 period in the Hara biosphere reserve under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the highest and lowest decreasing trends of precipitation belonging to January and July under the RCP2.6 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, according to the results obtained from the De Martonne aridity index, the climate type of the region for observation and future periods (under the investigated scenarios studied) was classified under the dry category, with no changes being observed for the future period. 

    Discussion and conclusion:

    Considering the growth conditions dominating the Iranian mangroves’ habitats in hot and dry regions, the results of the study indicated that compared to other human-induced phenomena, climate change had turned into a serious degradation threat to such habitats. In this regard, the study found that the average temperature would increase in the future, especially during the warm seasons of the year, which in turn may affect the biological and ecological conditions of the mangrove forests of the region. Therefore, a high correlation was found between the changes in mangroves and plant communities of the Khamir and Qeshm region and the changes in drought intensity and temperature increase, indicating that the area of the region’s mangrove plant communities has decreased in recent decades due to continued drought. Accordingly, it could be argued that the prospective drought periods would exert considerable influence on the structure of the habitats and the spatial distribution of the mangrove forests. The results of the study also suggested that climate change was considered one of the major known threats to the mangrove forests’ Hara biosphere reserve. Therefore, simulating and predicting such changes can provide useful knowledge concerning the trend of temperature and precipitation changes (as the main climatic parameters) in these natural stands, helping to set appropriate measures for preserving and restoring such invaluable biological reserves. Furthermore, in the management plans of this region, climate change can be considered in the region’s management plans to reduce the destructive effects of those changes.

    Keywords: Climate Prediction, SDSM, Mangrove Forests, Hara Protected Area, Qeshm Island, Khamir Port
  • Khadijeh Javan*, Ameneh Yahyavi Dizaj Pages 89-102
    Introduction

     As one of the most threatening natural hazards that has plagued humans for a long time, drought is considered a main natural disaster that affects various aspects of human life (Mishra and Sin, 2010). On the other hand, while dryness is typically associated with desert lands, little precipitation, and very thin vegetation by laymen, it refers to a kind of permanent climatic feature of a region, showing the insufficient amount of precipitation required for the growth of life in the region (Kaviani and Alijani, 2010).

    Materials and methods

     To analyze the temporal and spatial variations of UNEP and De Martonne aridity indices in Iran throughout the study period (1976-2020), this study collected the data of forty synoptic stations in terms of the maximum and minimum temperatures (°C), average relative humidity (%), wind speed (m/s), and sunshine hours (h) using the information published by the Iranian meteorological organization. Then, different regions of Iran were classified in terms of UNEP and De Martonne aridity indices. Moreover, to investigate the influence of the factors involved in those indices such as precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration, the factors were zoned. Finally, the trend of changes in dryness indices was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test.

    Results

     The results of the UNEP aridity index classification indicated that from among the forty stations investigated in this study, fourteen stations had a very dry climate. Moreover, ten stations were found to have been located in dry areas and eight in semi-arid regions. On the other hand, more than three-quarters of the stations with very dry, dry, and semi-arid climates were identified as the most susceptible areas to desertification. On the other hand, the results of the De Martonne aridity index analysis confirmed the results found for the analysis of the UNEP index. As for the spatial distribution of the aforementioned indices, it was found that very dry, dry, semi-dry, and Mediterranean classes were located in the southwestern, southern, southeastern,central, northwestern, western, and northeastern regions. The results also revealed that the northern regions, central Alborz highlands, and northern coasts had semi-humid, humid, and very humid climates.On the other hand, the results of the investigation of precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration suggested that in arid regions, the plants' demand for water was increased and the soil moisture was decreased due to the decrease in precipitation and the increase in temperature and reference evapotranspiration. Moreover, the results of the Mann-Kendall test for the UNEP and De Martonne indices showed a significant decreasing trend in the confidence level by 99%, 95%, and 90% in more than half of the studied stations, indicating a main challenge in arid and semi-arid regions worldwide, especially in Iran.This study highlighted the fact that most of Iran's regions were subject to dryness, being placed in severe and very severe desertification risk classes. Therefore, considering the significance of the subject and the necessity of its investigation in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, especially Iran, where water stress is high and water resources are critically limited, it is suggested that for more proper agricultural management, further studies be conducted on the distribution of aridity in the growing season in terms of UNEP and De Martonne aridity indices.

    Discussion and Conclusion

     This study sought to investigatethe temporal and spatial variations of UNEP and De Martonne aridity indices in Iran using the data collected from forty synoptic stations concerning maximum and minimum temperature rates (°C), average relative humidity (%), wind speed (m/s), and sunshine hours (h). The study also tried to classify the Iranian climate in terms of such aridity indices. To this end, the factors affecting the indices such as precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration were zoned, and the trend of changes in aridity indices was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The results of the UNEP index showed that more than three-quarters of the stations have a very dry, arid, semi-arid, and Mediterranean climate and in terms of spatial distribution, they are spread in the southwest, south, southeast, center, northwest, west, and northeast regions of the country, which are prone to the occurrence of desertification in terms of climate.Moreover, the study found that less than a quarter of the stations with semi-humid, humid, and very humid climates were located in the northern regions, central Alborz highlands, and northern coasts. Also, the results of the De Martonne aridity index were reported as consistent with the UNEP index. On the other hand, the results of the investigation of precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration revealed that in dry areas, the decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature and reference evapotranspiration rates caused an increase in the plants' demand for water and a decrease in soil moisture. Moreover, the results of the Mann-Kendall test indicated a significant decrease in the confidence level by 99%, 95%, and 90% in more than half of the stations.

    Keywords: Iran, UNEP Index, De Martonne Index, Trend, Mann-Kendall Test
  • seyed amir amirizad, ahmad nohegar * Pages 103-119
    Introduction

    This study tries to investigate the temperature inversion and its role in the concentration of air pollution in the region by using the data observed by Bandar Abbas Radio Sound and the recorded data of meteorological parameters and air pollution in the site of the Persian Gulf Special Economic Zone and to know the characteristics of temperature inversion and its effect on the distribution of industrial pollutants.

    Materials and methods

    The Special Economic Zone of the Persian Gulf Industries is located in the 13 km of Shahid Rajaee Highway, west of Bandar Abbas in Hormozgan Province - the northern shores of the Persian Gulf. In order to analyze anemometer data and state of the direction and speed of winds in the region, Wind rose Plot software was used. In order to investigate the characteristics of temperature inversion in the region and its relationship with the concentration of air pollutants, radiosonde data and the Bandar Abbas Skew-T diagram were used. After downloading the data, using the RAOB software, Skew-T diagram was drawn for Bandar Abbas and the temperature inversion characteristics were obtained from it. In order to model and predict the possibility of temperature inversion, logistic regression model fitting was used. Temperature inversions according to intensity in four separate groups including: weak (0.000-0.010), medium (0.011-0.20), severe (0.021-0.030) and very severe (high 0.031) was divided. In order to equate the intensity of inversion and the effect of climatic variables and characteristics of the temperature, altitude and pressure layer on its intensity, multiple linear regression was used in a step-by-step method. The concentration of standard air pollutants, including PM10, CO, O3, NO2 and SO2 were obtained from the pollution control center at the site of the Persian Gulf Special Economic Zone on a daily basis. After examining the pollutants, their concentration was compared on days of inversion and non-inversion, and their relationship with atmospheric characteristics and characteristics of inversions was investigated.

    Result

    The winds speed classes of the region were prepared on a seasonal scale. The results show that the south and southeast winds are the dominant winds in the region, which is known as the sea breeze. The results of extracting days with temperature inversion in the industrial area showed that the most inversions are in June and May; Also, Feb and Apr are on the same floor in the third row. In July, August and September, the number of inversions decreases and peaks again in autumn. The results of comparing the mean of Student's t-test showed that among meteorological parameters, temperature and wind speed in inversion days and unstable days (no inversion) have significant differences, but relative humidity, air pressure and wind direction, although in two types There are few changes in the inversion conditions, but their differences are not significant. The logistic regression results show that the dependent variable of temperature inversion can be explained with 67% confidence using independent variables. Therefore, the final model is drawn with the variables of ground pressure, wind speed and sensible heat flow according to the equation. Weak inversions are the most frequent. About 51.2% of inversions have weak intensity, 37.9% have medium intensity, about 7.7% have high intensity and only about 3% have very high intensity. According to the monthly scale, the highest percentage of the frequency of weak weather was in July (73%) and the lowest in March (30%). But extreme inversions are the most frequent in January (11%) and in the warm half of the year there are no extreme inversions. The annual average intensity of inversion in the region is average (0.017), but in the hot half of the year (spring and summer), the intensity of inversions is weak and in the cold half of the year (autumn and winter), and the average of the strongest inversions is in March. It happened. The standardized concentration difference of PM10, CO, O3, SO2 and NO2 pollutants was investigated under stable (inversion) and unstable (non-inversion) atmospheric conditions, and the results of the Student's t-test showed that the average concentration difference of PM10, CO, O3 in inversion conditions and The lack of inversion was significant at the 0.01 level; However, no difference was observed in the concentration of SO2 and NO2. The concentration of all pollutants was also higher during inversion than in non-inversion conditions. Therefore, inversion plays an important role in the concentration of atmospheric pollutants in the region. Inversion increased the concentration of PM10 by 56 μg/m3 compared to non-inversion conditions. CO concentration also increased by 0.46 ppm under the influence of inversion. Air inversion and stability have the greatest effect on ozone (O3), which increased by 61.5 ppb. Also, sulfur dioxide increased by 0.11 ppb and nitrogen dioxide by 2.6 ppb on inversion days compared to non-inversion days.

    Discussion and Conclusion

    The results of the investigation of the wind situation in the industrial area west of Bandar Abbas show that the dominant wind is south and south-east, and then the south-southwest directions are the first-order winds. Velocity greater than 12 meters per second exists only in the south direction and with negligible frequency. In most directions, the wind speed is less than 6 meters per second, which was consistent with the results of Kamijani et al. (2014); So that they came to the conclusion that the frequency of high-speed wind decreases from the west to the east of the Persian Gulf, and in Bandar Abbas and the east of the Persian Gulf, the frequency and strength of southerly winds increases compared to the west coast of the Persian Gulf, which is the main reason for the formation of low pressure. In the summer season, this low pressure moves to the eastern coast of the Persian Gulf in the Oman Sea, which increases the frequency of southerly winds, especially on the coasts of Bandar Abbas and Qeshm. In winter, due to the decrease in wind speed, the depth of the layer and the intensity of the inversion increased, and on the contrary, in the summer, the intensity of the inversion decreased with the increase of the wind speed. In the northern cities of Iran, including Tehran, Mashhad and Tabriz, the inversion is more in winter and is of the radiation type, which is the main reason for the stability of the air and the formation of the inversion; However, in the studies related to Tehran, Mashhad and Tabriz (Shamsipour et al., 2013; Sadeghi et al., 2014; Yaori and Saseh, 2011), the role of wind speed and relative humidity has not been mentioned much; However, the results of the current research show that wind speed and relative humidity on the ground have a significant correlation with the intensity of the inversion.

    Keywords: Inversion, Logistic Regression, Air Pollution, PM10, Bandar Abbas