نشریه آینده پژوهی ایران
سال هشتم شماره 2 (پاییز و زمستان 1402)

The present study aims to show the similarities and differences of the 18 sub-fields related to each of the six concepts of futures studies, foresight, futurology, future thinking, futurism and future mining by studying and comparing the topics investigated in the scientific productions of futures studies (in its general sense). The methods of collecting information and the method of analysis are scientific and specialized library research. Data analysis was done using Excel software. The results show that the highest frequency of articles in the field of futures studies is urban and regional 205 articles, religious and religious 128 articles, and defense and military 102 articles. In addition, the highest rate of growth of articles in the studied fields is in 2022. The results of this research are in line with the comparison of the frequency of scientific articles published in the six studied concepts related to the future in the fifteen-year period of 2008 to 2022, and the results of the analysis show that the highest frequency of articles is related to the concept of futures studies with 822 and foresight with 279 respectively. The research title is dedicated. In addition, the highest growth of articles in these fifteen years is for the concept of futures studies.

The significant effects of the corona infectious disease require fundamental changes in various fields such as the health tourism industry, which are more and more important in the post-corona era. Health tourism is one of the most important types of tourism in our country. Now, it should be checked what the status of this important industry will be in the post-corona era. Therefore, the main goal of the current research is to analyze the health tourism situation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the post-corona era, which takes a futuristic view. The method of the current research is mixed that investigates the issue using a sequential exploratory approach. In this research, two methods of "scope review and scenario planning" have been used, respectively. According to the findings of the first phase, 6 components and 55 main indicators were extracted from among 58 qualified researches, and 25 main indicators were considered as the drivers of this field in the review through the expert panel process. In the second phase, using the quantitative method of scenario planning, four main scenarios were compiled, which are in the form of the health tourism situation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the post-corona era. From the results of the current research, we can point out the role of each of the scenarios in different situations, which can create sustainable health tourism in the country in the best and most favorable possible state.

This study was carried out with the aim of investigating and designing scenarios of the future state of political culture in Iran, with a future-oriented approach to the category of political culture, which is the strength and distinction of this work from previous works. Knowing the political culture as a way of drawing people's attitude towards the political system is important because, while creating the conditions for understanding the relationship between the various elements of human life, it is considered to be an indicator of the social and political changes governing the future of a political system as a result of intergenerational transformations.

we used quantitative and qualitative methods and the Petershwartz scenario method to answer the main question. in order to collect information, research literature and documents were reviewed in the form of a library method and a semi-structured interview with a panel of 25experts. the Delphi method was used, and to measure reliability, the structural analysis method based on the interrelationship matrix tables based on Micmac software was used. And to design the scenarios, we benefited from the Scenario Wizard software.

five key uncertainties related to the future state of political culture in Iran: myth-making, seeking justice, Ashura culture and Mahdism, linking religion and politics, and seeking independence, which are based on four cultural-political scenarios of religious democracy, religious exclusivity, and democratic participation. and subordinate-participatory political culture.

Among the 4 proposed scenarios, the scenario of subservient-participatory political culture has the highest probability of occurrence.

Waste disposal is a pressing issue for humanity and has the potential to become a major crisis in the future. One of the best-proposed solutions is to reuse usable materials found in waste, which requires proper waste separation. Experts suggest that separation at the source is crucial, making a functional Reverse Logistics System (RLS) essential. This research aims to provide a structure that can practically redesign the RLS.

Specialists believe that BlockChain Technology (driving force of emerging technologies), has many potential capabilities, which can create many favorable effects in industries. In this research, BlockChain Technology has been used to redesign the RLS with a futuristic approach. That, the mutual collaboration of citizens and the waste collection company is necessary.

A system designed based on this structure is forward-looking and backed by a very effective driving force technology, capable of implementing any policy to increase the separation of waste at source and concluding smart-contracts. It is flexible against sudden increase or decrease in supply without causing audio and visual pollution in traditional systems. Additionally, it is very transparent, safe, and practical. With the proper allocation of the fleet, it can collect all segregated waste.

In this system, with a futuristic approach, waste segregation at the source increases significantly. Resource usage is reduced. The waste disposal problem is being managed. A circular economy is formed. The comfort of citizens increases. The damage to the environment is much less. And action has been taken to transform into smart cities.

Effectiveness of innovative human capital performance of knowledge-based herbal pharmaceutical companies and adopting forward-looking strategies to achieve it is important. aim is to provide an effective innovative human capital.

Research approach is mixed. targeted sampling was done with 15 experts in the health sector and managers of knowledge-based herbal medicine units in the country. For model tesingt, 169 questionnaires were collected from the researchers of knowledge-based units of herbal medicine. data analysis for model discovery is based on grounded theory and structural equations for model testing.

The model with six main dimensions (market-oriented dominance), (innovative human capital), (herbal therapy cultural environment), (weakness of policy making, standardization and innovation creating valuing), (futuristic strategic management of health), (future market knowledge) and 17 components,126indicators were confirmed. the fit indices of the model were NFI=0.926, GOF=0.569 and SRMR=0.071, which indicates fit of the research model.

Managers by adopting strategies of increasing and sharing the flow of information and knowledge between specialist employees, project supervisors and other stakeholders in the supply chain - having a learning and forward-looking management style in selection, employment, training and how to behave with specialist employees in projects - adopting smart management style in business processes as market measurement, customer orientation, competition orientation, improving the quality of drug production and creating an atmosphere of win-win interaction with other knowledge-based enterprises and herbal pharmaceutical industries, can witness the effectiveness of human capital by gaining knowledge of the future market.

Damages caused by globalization and rapid urbanization have shown the importance of urban identity. Therefore, maintaining it is an important issue in sustainable development. The purpose of this study is to change the identity of the city of Tehran with the qualitative method of prospective research (causal layer analysis) in order to deconstruct Tehran's identity and formulate alternative scenarios. The statistical population of this research is 14 people who are specialists in urban planning, architecture and urban sociology, whose views were extracted through a semi-structured interview. Then, by analyzing the theme of the interviews, their opinions were explained in the form of 4 litany tables, systematic causes, discourse and worldview, metaphor and myth. The findings of the study show that in the litany layer, the obvious problem is the identity crisis of Tehran, which is in four categories: "confused, famous, fluid and plural identity, meaningless and soulless", in the layer of systematic causes, "short-term society, speculative spaces, unrestrained spinning, flaming", in the layer of discourse and worldview, "modernism of underdevelopment, urban neoliberalism, global development of the city, individualism " and in the fourth layer, "everything that is hard and stable will smoke and go into the air "The nakedness of poverty and wealth, in the whirlwind of the global city, is the forgotten city". Finally, two drivers of underdevelopment modernism and urban neoliberalism were selected based on importance and uncertainty, and based on that, 4 scenarios were presented that can be considered in urban management process.