فهرست مطالب mohammad reza farzin

Historical monuments are one of the main sources in different cities of Iran that help ecodynamics. The public sector is responsible for conservation and exploitation of them. While this sector does not have enough technical and financial resource. hence according to other countries patterns public private participation has formed to conserve, restore, and exploit historic monuments in recent years. The motivations and approaches of both parties have not been specified. The current study aimed at investigating the experiences of four buildings in different cities In Iran to specify the purposes.  this can lead to make policies and approaches by both public and private sectors in participation contracts. In this case study, they were collected by investigating the documents, observations, and interviews.  the interviews. 27 individuals were selected purposefully were interviewed, the obtained data were analyzed using MAXQDA 10. Systematic review was also used to investigate the previous studies -as external experiences- accordingly, 40 articles were selected and their content was analyzed using thematic analysis and MAXQDA 10 software.The results show that providing cost of conservation and restoration,  providing tourism infrastructures, modeling for private sector,  conservation of building, regeneration of historical texture, Identity, economic benefit, and creating job or objectives of public sectors. , whereas social prestige, investment in tourism,, increasing social capital, creating tourist destinations financial benefits personal interests and showing Iranian hospitality are considered by the private sector. Considering showing an inclination to protect historical buildings as the national capital for the public sector and making an effort to provide public interest by the private sector, two key solutions should be considered: observing conservation and restoration standards by the private sector and starting supportive funds of investment by the public sector.

In the world, most of the national economies have experienced economic stagnation after the financial crisis. This has raised the need to examine the impact of financial innovation and economic growth to protect countries from problems that may arise from financial sector market failures. With the growth in the global economy, it is one of the basic factors of financial innovation that is observed in developed and developing countries and creates fruitful results for the economy. The relationship between financial innovation and economic growth during the last few decades is one of the topics of concern for economists.
In this study, using the PMG test, we test the effect of financial innovation indicators on economic growth in developed and developing countries for the period from 2000 to 2022. Three proxy variables have been used to calculate financial innovation: liquidity to the volume of money in circulation (M2/M1), bank credit to the private sector, and a proxy with mobile phone penetration is used to calculate the number of active internet subscribers to the population.
In developed countries, in the long run, all the coefficients except the inflation rate are significant at the level of 5%. The effect of government spending, gross capital formation and trade liberalization on economic growth has been positive. The coefficients of M2/M1 and mobile phone penetration are negative and the reliability coefficient is positive. In developing countries, coefficients of M2/M1 and mobile phone penetration are negative and credits are positive. Financial innovation indicators M2/M1 and mobile phone penetration rate (MB) have a negative effect on economic growth. The growth of innovation cannot be the basis of economic development for developing economies; Because the infrastructure is not available in these countries.

Investigating the effect of monetary policies on macroeconomic variables through the channels that transmit these policies is one of the most important topics in macroeconomics, because mastering the mechanisms that transmit these policies and the factors that affect them play a significant role in adopting effective monetary policies and increasing the efficiency of these policies. According to Neoclassical and Keynesian economists’ viewpoints, monetary policies affect the level of total demand and subsequently inflation rate and production through four channels of interest rate, asset prices, exchange rate and credits, and among these, the interest rate channel is more important because of the mutual effect it has on the other three channels. But since the most important component in the implementation of monetary policies is the banking system, the quality and efficiency of the transfer of these policies largely depends on the conditions of that. This study, therefore, by using the theoretical analysis method, tries to answer the following questions: what are the reasons for the formation of imbalance in the banking system in terms of the theory and the basics of Islamic banking? And in the condition of banking imbalance, how could we explain the effectiveness of the monetary policy tool of interest rate on the management of the inflation variable? To answer this, first of all, the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission channels are elaborated in the condition of the banking system  soundness, and then by examining and explaining the reasons for creating imbalances in the banking system from the operational aspect and from the perspective of Islamic banking, the manner of disrupting the transmission channel mechanism of the monetary policy of the interest rate to the inflation rate when there is an imbalance in the banking network, and the final result of the quality of the application of this policy to the inflation variable in the mentioned conditions are theoretically analyzed.

The present study examines the relationship between inflation and exchange rate jumps, taking into account the index of the central bank's intervention degree and using Dornbush launch model and using Star's soft logistic transfer model (LSTR) for the period from 1986 to 2020. The estimation results of the linear part of the model (the first regime) and the nonlinear part of the model (the second regime) show that the variables of oil price, exchange rate jump, degree of central bank intervention and money volume have a positive relationship with inflation in Iran's economy, which with the transition from the linear regime Non-linearly, the speed of transmission and the effect of variables have increased. So that for one unit increase in oil price and exchange rate jump, the inflation rate has increased by 5 units and 21 units respectively. In other words, the increase in oil revenues has led to an increase in inflation in the country. Also, the value of the estimated threshold limit for the variable of currency jump transmission was equal to 0.13. By comparing the coefficients of the model in two different regimes, it can be seen that when the growth of the exchange rate exceeds the threshold (0.13), the reaction of the monetary authorities to the changes of this variable has greatly increased, so that the higher the growth of the exchange rate, Policymakers have tried to control the growth of the exchange rate and prevent its increase by reacting more to it. Also, the average amount of central bank intervention shows that the central bank intervention policy has not played an effective role in neutralizing the pressure of the currency market. The reason for this is that in Iran's single-product economy; it is the main supplier of government currency. The central bank is also responsible for financing the government budget. Therefore, foreign exchange intervention in the market is mainly done in order to provide Rial resources to the government budget.

Investigating the effect of monetary policies on macroeconomic variables through the channels that transmit these policies is one of the most important topics in macroeconomics, because mastering the mechanisms that transmit these policies and the factors that affect them play a significant role in adopting effective monetary policies and increasing the efficiency of these policies. According to Neoclassical and Keynesian economists’ viewpoints, monetary policies affect the level of total demand and subsequently inflation rate and production through four channels of interest rate, asset prices, exchange rate and credits, and among these, the interest rate channel is more important because of the mutual effect it has on the other three channels. But since the most important component in the implementation of monetary policies is the banking system, the quality and efficiency of the transfer of these policies largely depends on the conditions of that. This study, therefore, by using the theoretical analysis method, tries to answer the following questions: what are the reasons for the formation of imbalance in the banking system in terms of the theory and the basics of Islamic banking? And in the condition of banking imbalance, how could we explain the effectiveness of the monetary policy tool of interest rate on the management of the inflation variable? To answer this, first of all, the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission channels are elaborated in the condition of the banking system soundness, and then by examining and explaining the reasons for creating imbalances in the banking system from the operational aspect and from the perspective of Islamic banking, the manner of disrupting the transmission channel mechanism of the monetary policy of the interest rate to the inflation rate when there is an imbalance in the banking network, and the final result of the quality of the application of this policy to the inflation variable in the mentioned conditions are theoretically analyzed.

An efficient financial market in the economy can cause economic growth by ensuring the optimal allocation of financial resources, efficient allocation of economic resources, and reducing the cost of capital by accelerating capital accumulation processes in the financial system. The relationship between financial innovation and economic growth has been one of the topics of concern for economists for the past few decades, and different views and opinions have been raised in this regard. In this article, three indicators of financial innovation, i.e. the ratio of liquidity volume to the volume of money in circulation, the ratio of bank credits to the private sector, and the penetration rate of the Internet on the economic growth of Iran during the years 1375-1399, using the auto-distributional regression model with a break (ARDL) in Short term and long term has been paid. The results show that the short-run credit ratio and the long-run ratio have a significant positive effect on Iran's economic growth. Also, trade liberalization has a positive effect on economic growth in the long-run. It is suggested that financial innovation expands financial activities in the economy with the emergence of new forms and structures of financial institutions, better financial services through technological advancement, improvement of financial products and capital accumulation by encouraging savings in society, which in turn leads to economic growth. In addition, an efficient financial sector requires financial innovation that allows efficient allocation of economic resources to productive methods.

The importance of the number of incoming tourists to a country in tourism development prompts planners to measure tourism demand to identify and prioritize related factors. Despite Iran's low contribution to the tourism industry, it's essential to investigate the agents affecting the industry’s growth and determine the factors affecting the increase of tourists entering the country. For this purpose, the dynamic econometric model of international tourism demand has been investigated in this research, and the determination of factors in the arrival of international tourists to Iran has been analyzed. In this regard, the tourists entering Iran from 50 different countries from 2008 to 2016 were examined; The effect of economic factors such as the Gross Domestic Product of origin countries, Consumer price index (relative price of tourism) and crude oil price, and non-economic factors such as the number of rooms, political stability and the effect of the boycott were measured as dummy variable on the demand of incoming tourists. For this purpose, the demand of incoming tourists was estimated using three models, including economic, non-economic, and hybrid models using the GMM estimator for the dynamic panel data model and EViews10 software. The research findings indicate that in addition to economic variables, non-economic factors also affect the amount of inbound tourism demand in Iran. Gross Domestic Product among economic variables and political stability among non-economic variables have had a more profound impact.

Over the past few years, Bitcoin's price has fluctuated significantly, making it a hot topic in finance research. Numerous studies have been conducted to determine whether Bitcoin is a reliable currency. This study aims to investigate how the Dollar Index and Gold Return Rate affect Bitcoin's price, using a non-linear approach with the NARDL method. The findings show that the Gold Return Rate (G) and Dollar Index Return Rate significantly negatively impact Bitcoin's return. Additionally, based on non-linear and asymmetric tests, the assumption of symmetry in the results for all variables, except nominal interest rate and commodity index return, is rejected. This indicates that the impact of the Gold Return Rate, nominal interest rate, fluctuations in the US stock market, and oil price return is asymmetric. These results confirm the non-linear nature of these relationships. They also demonstrate that Bitcoin's return has been able to protect itself to a certain degree against the US dollar or some other investments.

Real exchange rate misalignment means that the real exchange rate deviates from its equilibrium level and is the cause of many domestic and global economic problems. This index is considered as an important indicator in foreign competition and in case of adopting an inappropriate exchange rate regime; it may create economic instability and affect economic performance. This issue is important in countries with oil resources due to the special structure of their foreign trade. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the short-term and long-term causal relationships between the exchange rate regime and the real exchange rate misalignment in the OPEC countries. Therefore, using panel data during the years 2020-2000 and cointegration approaches, long-term and short-term causal relationships between these variables have been investigated. The results show that in the short run, the causal positive and significant relationship has been obtained from the real exchange rate misalignment to the exchange rate regime; In other words, higher the real exchange rate misalignment, the more the monetary authority intervenes in the market to move the exchange rate towards greater stability and minimize fluctuations. In the long run, the causal relationship between the exchange rate regime and the real exchange rate misalignment is negative and significant. This means that as the exchange rate regime moves towards more stability, the real exchange rate misalignment decreases. In other words, the type of exchange rate regime in the long run can lead to the formation of market expectations and, consequently, increase or decrease imbalances.

Changes in the real exchange rate affect a country's balance of payments and international competitiveness, and its misalignment from the long-run equilibrium level usually creates imbalances in the macro economy. This is also important in countries with oil resources due to their foreign trade structure. Accordingly, due to the existence of few internal studies on the subject in selected countries with specific common features, the purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the real exchange rate misalignment in the OPEC member countries in the period 2000-2020. In this regard, with calculating the real exchange rate, equilibrium values and ultimately its misalignment in the selected research sample with approaches more consistent with theoretical foundations, the factors affecting the real exchange rate misalignment such as capital account openness and exchange rate flexibility has been examined by Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) technique. The results, in addition to showing the real exchange rate misalignment in each of the countries, show that the capital account strategy and exchange rate flexibility have a significant effect on the real exchange rate imbalance. Finally, some suggestions based on the research results are presented. According to the research results, adopting a managed floating exchange rate system, preventing the increase of money and liquidity and planning to reduce the conversion of dollars from natural resources into national currency, controlling inflation and thus maintaining the competitiveness of oil exporting countries in comparison It has been proposed with other countries as policy solutions.

The purpose of this research is to create an organizational innovation based on human resource agency in the hotel industry to ensure continuity of hotel competitiveness. The agency approach focuses on the freedom of activists and their interaction within the action framework. The research method type is a developmental-applied and descriptive - survey. Data collection was carried out by a questionnaire with 42 questions and a random sample of 260 individuals that was selected among managers and staff of 5 star hotels in Tehran. Data analysis was performed using the structural equation modeling technique - in two parts of the measurement model - to examine the technical characteristics of the questionnaire and the structural part, to investigate the research hypotheses. Findings of the research indicate the positive and significant effect action framework on creating innovation in forms of manufacturing, process and administrative innovation. Based on the results of the research, the factors of the action framework Contains of subjective well-being, giving positive freedom, knowledge sharing, transformational leadership, Organizational equality and Psychological Contracts influenced On the innovation of Workplace of Iranian Hotels.

In the current monetary system, money is a type of debt that is created by the central bank and banks in the context of balance sheet operations. Creating money in a partial reserve banking system creates or exacerbates various problems, including bankruptcy and bankrun. One way to solve such problems is to change the system of money governance to a situation where the possibility of creating bank money is eliminated (100% reserve system). Analysis of CBDC balance sheets based on the balance sheets of economic agents shows that increasing the CBDC in the people's portfolio in the economy and replacing it with bank deposits reduces the money-creating power of banks. If the CBDC completely replaces bank deposits, the money-creating power of banks will be reduced to zero. In fact, the CBDC enables the creation of a full reserve-based monetary system that eliminates the problems of bank money creation, including the high probability of cash bankruptcy (due to unequal risk on both sides of the bank balance sheet) and balance sheet bankruptcy (due to banks' ability to defer non-current facilities).

By using the domestic tourism industry, governments try to create and improve domestic infrastructure, economic prosperity, create jobs and reduce poverty in different regions of the country. Due to the importance of this industry, in this study, the income and price effects of increasing fuel prices in the domestic tourism industry along with the two economic variables of real exchange rate and household income have been examined during 1387Q1-1398Q4. Given that the effect of macroeconomic variables on each other depends on economic conditions and economic conditions change over time, in modeling these dynamics have been taken into account and the model of state and space has been used. The results of estimating the study pattern show that real exchange rate, real GDP and gasoline price have a significant effect on the number of domestic overnight stays. But the effect of cash subsidies paid to households on travel demand is not significant.

The present article examines the relationship between inflation and exchange rate by considering the foreign exchange market pressure index and the degree of central bank's intervention in Iran's economy using Weymark model (1995) and SVAR structural self-regression model based on seasonal data for the years 1370-1397. Based on the results of estimating the Weymark model (1995), Iran's foreign exchange market has experienced an increase in pressure in the foreign exchange market in 91 out of 111 chapters in order to prevent the devaluation of the rial. Also, according to the results of SVAR model estimation, a shock from the oil revenue, a shock from the foreign exchange market pressure and a shock from the central bank's intervention have caused an increase of 26%, 28% and 56% increase in inflation in the country, respectively. It can be concluded that as the impulse in government foreign exchange earnings increases, the growth of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves will decrease. the central bank is forced to step up its intervention to reduce inflation in the foreign exchange market to prevent traders from attacking. Also, the calculation of the foreign exchange market pressure index indicates that the highest numbers obtained for this index are related to the time when the gap between the free exchange rate and the official exchange rate has increased.

The analysis of the quality of the business environment and tourism entrepreneurship is one of the most important preconditions for improving the tourism business environment. In this regard, the new institutional economy, which focuses on the institutional environment, interprets the relations of tourist actors, which undeniable influence of government, laws and governance structure is undeniable. In this research, an explanation of the factors influencing the institutional environment of the tourism sector has been attempted with the concept of institutionalism and a qualitative approach (thematic analysis). Therefore, through in-depth interviews with 24 economic and tourism experts, institutional factors affecting the business environment and tourism entrepreneurship were identified and explained. The results of the research identified three main themes: the legal system, government policies and science and technology with their sub-themes, It was identified that the business environment of tourism is affected by them and the management and organization...

Transaction cost, the cost that is not considered in the production function of the business, is actually the success or failure of the market. Examining various international reports (such as the Doing business, competitiveness, and global entrepreneurship monitoring) as well as the evidence and current status of Iran tourism indicate high transaction costs and inadequate business environment. Accordingly, the institutionalism explanation of the factors affecting the market transaction costs and tourism businesses is the main object of this study. Based on this, using the qualitative approach (theme analysis) and the profound interview with tourism market experts, the factors affecting the Iran tourism market transaction costs based on the model of new institutionalism have been identified and analyzed. The results of this survey indicate that the six themes identified in the study include the costs of information and knowledge, technology, business start-up, macroeconomic environment, capital and the cost of contracts, are the main elements of transaction costs of tourism in Iran and its impact has led to internalization, the lack of growth in the size of businesses and the reduction of partnerships among the players in the tourism industry.

Keeping up with global trends and gaining competitive advantage requires that tourism destinations determine their strategies based on the recognition of the importance of their competitive features and performance. In the present study, the IPA approach was used to assess the importance of various activities for gaining competitive advantage in destination management and the performance of two destinations of Yazd and Shiraz. The results showed that, from experts view, in both destinations, about half of the criteria with low importance and poor performance were in the lowest priorities for allocating resources. Based on the average points of importance in Yazd, the dimensions of "crisis management", "marketing", "climate change", "tourism and hospitality education", "sustainable development" and "product development and innovation" and in the city of Shiraz dimensions of "climate change", "marketing", "crisis management", "sustainable development", "product development and innovation", and "tourism and hospitality education" were identified from the most important to the least important aspects of destination competitiveness, respectively.

Coasts, as one of the natural rich sources, have received much attention from economic actors including tourism sector. Among the various uses of coasts, coastal tourism is known as an old mode of leisure and increase the number of coastal tourists annually. Because of the considerable growth of coastal tourism on one hand and acting the other users from coastal lands and sources on the other hand, the necessity of applying an appropriate and all-out approach for coastal tourism management is required which be able to responsible for outside (macro) environment in addition to creating collaboration among tourism elements. Integrated management approach tries to solve conflicts and make coherent the visions and various strategic policies in different levels of execution by focusing on all stakeholders' involvement in management process. Undoubtedly, acting and interfering of governmental, general, private and public- based organizations into coastal development process influences on how to coastal tourism is managed. This paper studied and analysed the concept of "integrated management of coastal tourism" with using an analytical descriptive approach. According to the surveys, adoption of this management approach, while desirable and popular, requires the operationalization of criteria such as the creation of a legal framework and the clarity and transparency of regulations, financial support, adequate clarity of responsibilities, decentralization and fairly distribution of power, culture building, strengthening social responsibility, sustainability attitude and logic among the involved organizations and in relation to tourism which will not be easy in some conditions and countries.

Recreational tourism is an important form of domestic tourism in Tehran, based on the statistics of the National Center of Statistics and the views of the experts. This paper tried to propose models for predicting effective variables on predicting domestic demands for recreational tourism in Tehran. The study used the monthly information between 2001 and 2015. The independent variable was the number of domestic recreational tourists in Tehran, and the dependent variables were selected based on Delphi and Fuzzy DEMATEL techniques. The model framework was a combination of regression, the fuzzy neural network, and SVR algorithm. The combinations of these methods helped measure prediction errors and compare methods. Results showed that the proposed hybrid approach of regression and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) could have a better prediction compared to other methods for predicting domestic recreational tourism.

  One of the most important events in the tourism industry of each country is the demand for a product or destination and its true prediction of tourism. It should be noted that there are distances and deviations between actual values and predictions. The use of modern scientific and forecasting methods will make the results far more than an objective estimate and closer to the truth; this article pursues the same goal in the field of medical tourism. In the first step, factors affecting the demand for domestic medical tourism in Tehran were identified by 31 experts using Fuzzy Delphi and Dematel Fuzzy methods. The factors were then processed by MATLAB2017a software. After determining the demand function, and collecting monthly data of each effective factor from 2001 to 2015, three regression prediction models, a fuzzy neural network, and SVR algorithm were implemented using MATLAB software to measure and compare forecast errors. The demand function for domestic medical tourism included: economic factors (individual income and wealth), service prices and cost of living in the destination, the cost of accommodation facilities, air pollution, and the price of alternative products (foreign travel), the number of medical centers, hospitals and laboratories. The proposed hybrid approach for regression and SVR algorithm can make a better prediction compared with the other methods of forecasting domestic medical tourism. Therefore, it is recommended to use the demand function and forecasting model to lower the forecast error while planning for domestic medical tourism demand in Tehran.

Iran’s Economy have been facing several challenges including resource curse, lack of resilience due to intelligent sanctions because of its dependency on crude oil export revenues. Concerning this issue, in paragraphs 12 and 13 of the general policies of resistive economy, it is emphasized on the increase of the resistance and decrease of the vulnerability of the economy, especially on the context of crude oil and natural gas export revenues. It is also emphasized on the role of national wealth fund through increasing its share of these revenues and breaking off the dependency of the government budget resources to such revenues, in paragraph 18 of resistive policies. On the other hand, the current management of oil and gas revenues through third to sixth development plans, show that the aim of increasing such resilience hasn’t been verified. This paper aims to take advantage of national wealth funds capacity as a successful approach in management of oil revenues with an emphasis on its stabilizing and developmental applications in order to improve the economic situation of the country and decrease the dependency to these revenues and as a result increase the power and resilience of the Iran’s economy.

Most management decisions at all levels of the organization directly or indirectly depend on the state of future prediction, and through the same prediction that one can imagine a success or a status in the future, thereby minimizing risk or making any adjustments and adaptations in the program (Inskeep, 2004). One of the most important events in the tourism industry of each country is the demand for a product or destination of tourism. But it should be noted that predictions can never match 100% of what happens in practice (Claveria & Torra,2014). There will always be distances and deviations between actual and predicted values, but the use of scientific and modern methods of forecasting will cause the results to reach far more than an objective estimate to the truth (Shen & Song,2011). In recent years, with the changing pattern of holidays and the formation of short-term holidays, cities have found the opportunity for tourism development. One of the most important types of domestic tourism in Tehran, based on the statistics of the National Center of Statistics and the views of the experts in this area, is VFR tourism. A definition was proposed by Backer (2003: 4); ‘VFR Tourism is a form of tourism involving a visit whereby either (or both) the purpose of the trip or the type of accommodation involves visiting friends and/ or relatives.’ This definition encompasses all VFR typologies and was put forward as a model (Backer, 2008b) to aid in explaining VFR typologies.
Source: Backer, 2008b
As represented in the VFR Travel Definitional Model (table 1), VFRs can fall into a number of distinct groups. The category in the top left hand box depicts what could be considered to be the “pure” VFR, whose purpose is to visit their friends and or relatives and also stays with them. The lower left hand box depicts a less pure form of VFR traveler, who is staying with friends and relatives, but whose purpose of visit may be unrelated to VFR. This issue that VFR travelers can have a non-VFR purpose of visit when staying with friends or relatives has been discussed in previous research (Backer, 2003; Seaton & Palmer, 1997). Discussion and Results: For this purpose, the present study seeks to propose models for forecasting effective variables on forecasting domestic business tourism demand in Tehran. To do this, information was used between the years 2001 to 2015. Independent variable of this study is the number of domestic VFR tourists in Tehran, and dependent variables were selected based on Delphi and Fuzzy DEMATEL techniques. The model framework is a combination of regression, fuzzy neural network, and SVR algorithm, which combines these methods to measure forecast errors and compare the methods. The results of this research show that the proposed hybrid approach of regression and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) can have better prediction than other methods for forecasting domestic VFR tourism.

Tourism industry basically is a new source of revenue in developing countries, a social activity, big business and of the most important world's economic sectors which its human-oriented in both supply and demand sides shows the importance of studying and considering people' perception in it's planning. Despite the importance of this issue, only one side's view and perception (in particular the supply side) has been paid in most of tourism researches.
Tehran as a metropolitan city surrounded by some touristic villages. Village of Sulaghan as the most one boasts pleasing weather rural suburbs considered by Tehran tourists. Tourism in this region could be found in various forms including nature - based, construction of villas, second homes, climbing and religious tourism. Since the perception of supply and demand sides is essential for successful tourism development planning, preventing of causing and increasing problems of tourism growth, the present study seeks to answer two main questions:1- Hat is the perception of local residents and tourists about the development of tourism in village of Sulaghan?
2-How much is the importance - performance of tourism development indicators in local residents and tourists perspective?
Methods and Material: In this research, dimensions and indicators of tourism development are extracted from previous research and theoretical base including economic, socio-cultural, environmental, physical and general dimensions. The tool for collecting of required data is a self-administered questionnaire. The present research has used "IPA (Importance-Performance Analysis)" method in IBM SPSS.22 to examine the perception of local community (as supplier side) and tourists (as demand side) about tourism development in the village simultaneously. The statistical population consists of two groups of local residents of the village and those who visit this destination (tourists). Since the number of both statistical populations is not precisely determined, in each statistical society, 30 questionnaires are distributed and the size of two samples is determined using the collected data and sample size determination formula.

demographically, 59.8% of locals are male, 28.5% aged 40-49, 63.6% had an imcome of 1-2million Toman and 17.5% have been living in the village for over 20 years. In the second sample (tourists), 59.4% of tourists are male, 29.0% aged 30-39, 45.5% visited twice, 45.9% visited for recreation and 81.7% were citizens of Tehran.
Analysis of the results of 239 questionnaires of local people and 148 questionnaires of tourists illustrate that in local people point of view, among the 5 dimensions, economic dimension has the most of importance and performance average and the least difference between its importance and performance. Environmental (2.58) and public (2.06) dimensions had the greatest amount of difference. concerning the importance, economic had the most (4.34), then environmental (4.25), socio-cultural (4.20) and finally general (4.18) and physical (4.18) dimensions.
In opinion of demand side, security (average: 4.90), natural attractions and hospitality (4.83), health local restaurants (4.82), transportation quality (4.81), recreation facilities (4.81), environment sanitation (4.81) and finally cost-effectiveness of recreational tourism services (4.80) are the most important dimensions. However, such features as recreational facilities, transportation quality and access to village, tourist guide information, possibility of visiting of the rustic texture and cleanliness of nature have the most amount of difference between their importance and performance.

paying attention to demand and supply sides are vital in rural tourism development as an important part of tourism industry. The results provide valuable information on supply and demand's perceptions of Sulaghan tourism development's current situation. Likewise, in developing countries, the first and most important reason for tourism development is to benefit from its positive economic effects. A debatable result of the economic dimension is the local population's dissatisfaction with the increasing of property value. The idea is that increasing the value of properties is not a high priority for people, but the performance of this indicator is more attention; more clearly, people are dissatisfied with the jumping properties price in the village due to tourism growth. In addition lack of tourism management causes the environmental and socio-cultural challenges in Sulaghan. Considering the capacities and potential in rural areas and the adoption of environmental protection policies and strategies along with wise planning and management of tourism tends to be a suitable basis for sustainable development.
Generally some of suggestions like improving the rural environment and transportation (roads) situation, controlling the illegal constructions, maintenance of traditional village texture and improving the situation of all indicators that their distance of importance and performance is high, can increase the quality of visiting and the competitiveness of rural tourism in Sulaghan.

Tourism, as a clean and high employment generating industry, has been amongst the world’s top income generating industries and received a great deal of attention during the recent decades by development policies and programs.Needless to say, governments and private sectors in at macro and micro levels need to forecast the demand in tourism to survive and develop. Various quantitative and qualitative methods have been suggested in forecasting tourism demand in the literature so far, most of them focusing on quantitative methods, but with the quite recent advent of artificial neural networks and fuzzy neural networks methods, few studies have employed artificial intelligence methods in tourism demand modeling and forecasting.This study intends to forecast Iran’s inbound tourism demand using a suggestive model of fuzzy neural networks and compare its accuracy with ARIMA method. After identification and prioritization of the most significant determinants of Iran’s tourism demand function, and identification of the architecture for the fuzzy neural networks model, the study concludes that thismethod excels over ARIMA in all theperformance forecasting assessment criteria.

Inefficient system of subsidies allocation and distribution in Iran made government to reform it. As a result subsidies targeting became one of most important axis of the economic transformation plan and set high on Iran’s economical agenda. In order to do this some proficient investigations and scrupulous pathology conducted then the effects of this plan on macroeconomic variables and indexes analyzed. After ratification of subsidies targeting law in 2009 and making preparations for the law enforcement، finally in December 19 of 2010 the subsidies targeting law enacted. Due to cooperation of people and market and economic players and proper management and implementation of the law by the government it has been a successful administrative experience for government in national and international level. Although all similar experience in the world studied، the used execution model was entirely a native and Iranian one so international organization and bodies admitted the successful implementation of this law and introduced it as a proper model for other countries. This paper briefly addresses approaches، effects and enforcement results of the subsidies targeting law