فهرست مطالب

International Journal of Business and Development Studies
Volume:15 Issue: 1, Winter 2023

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1402/11/28
  • تعداد عناوین: 9
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  • Assessing Financial Soundness of Ceramics Industry in Bangladesh: An Analysis with Altman Z-score Model
    Md. Islam *, A.N.M. Fakir Page 2

    This study's goal is to evaluate the financial resilience of Bangladesh's ceramics industry using the Altman Z-Score model. The nation's economy heavily depends on the ceramics industry, which also creates jobs and contributes to industrial output. Rapid expansion in both home and international markets makes the financial stability of the sector essential to the stability of the economy as a whole. Using a quantitative methodology, this study examines information from the fiscal years 2020–21 annual reports of five listed ceramics companies. For the first time in this industry context, the Altman Z-Score model reveals a significant portion of companies falling into the "Distress" zone, indicating a heightened risk of financial challenges. The results have real-world ramifications for investors, legislators, and stakeholders. They can be used to improve financial plans and encourage the expansion of sustainable industries. By addressing a significant void in the assessment of financial resilience within Bangladesh's ceramics industry, the study adds to the body of literature.

    Keywords: Ceramics industry, Altman Z-Score model, Financial resilience, Financial challenges, Risk of bankruptcy
  • Informal Sector Development in Nigeria: how impactful is the government financial interventions?
    Lawal Bakare * Page 3

    In light of recent price swings in oil and the need to reduce the country's dependency on the commodity, the government of Nigeria has implemented a number of reforms and initiatives to stimulate the non-oil sector of the economy, most notably the informal sector. Government financial support as interventions would have otherwise been a relief in changing the narrative of ugly financial accessibility of participants in the informal sector. The level of financial accessibility and its relationship to the economic performance of participants in the informal sector have been largely understudied. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to assess the shortcomings of current government interventions in the informal sector and to provide a viable financial intervention structure to address these issues. This research included both primary and secondary sources of information. Questionnaires were used to collect primary data from respondents. A total of 700 informal sector participant who are mainly SMEs operators, 300 registered and 400 unregistered, were chosen using a purposeful selection technique from the six states of Southwest Nigeria. Data was examined in two ways using SPSS: descriptive and inferential. Thus, the study showed the flaws of the past interventions, such as a faulty programme design, bias in the distribution of financing facilities, a lack of knowledge about the facilities, and convoluted procedures for gaining government funding support.

    Keywords: Development, Finance, reforms, Informal sector, Dependency
  • Masoud Mohammadi, Mohammadreza Farzin *, Shamseddin Hosseini, Teymour Mohammadi Pages 5-23

    Over the past few years, Bitcoin's price has fluctuated significantly, making it a hot topic in finance research. Numerous studies have been conducted to determine whether Bitcoin is a reliable currency. This study aims to investigate how the Dollar Index and Gold Return Rate affect Bitcoin's price, using a non-linear approach with the NARDL method. The findings show that the Gold Return Rate (G) and Dollar Index Return Rate significantly negatively impact Bitcoin's return. Additionally, based on non-linear and asymmetric tests, the assumption of symmetry in the results for all variables, except nominal interest rate and commodity index return, is rejected. This indicates that the impact of the Gold Return Rate, nominal interest rate, fluctuations in the US stock market, and oil price return is asymmetric. These results confirm the non-linear nature of these relationships. They also demonstrate that Bitcoin's return has been able to protect itself to a certain degree against the US dollar or some other investments.

    Keywords: Dollar Index, Gold Return Rate, Bitcoin.Nardl
  • Sara Shafahi *, Akbar Alemtabriz, Alireza Motameni Pages 25-55

    In today's rapidly advancing electronics industry, the widespread use of electrical and electronic equipment has made sustainable management of end-of-life (EOL) equipment a pressing need. A global system is required to facilitate informed decision-making regarding e-waste. Manufacturers must therefore devise strategies for effectively managing products during the EOL phase. This article introduces a novel framework for managing e-waste during the EOL phase to identify the most appropriate EOL options to minimize e-waste. The proposed framework harnesses the power of Twitter as a data source, utilizing data mining techniques to extract consumer opinions on e-waste. The article also outlines the development of a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process method and a multi-objective mathematical framework, enabling efficient decision-making in EOL processes based on e-waste information obtained from Twitter data. The study's findings have the potential to assist equipment manufacturers in identifying flaws in electrical and electronic equipment by analyzing customer opinions shared on social media platforms. Furthermore, by analyzing consumer sentiment towards e-waste, manufacturers can gain a deeper understanding of customer perspectives and develop appropriate strategic plans for selecting suitable EOL processes for returned products. This study underscores the significance of social media data in addressing e-waste management challenges, showcasing the profound impact of customer opinions.

    Keywords: End-of-life (EOL), E-waste information, social media, Electrical, Electronic Equipment
  • Mostada Hushyar, Hamidreza Faaljou * Pages 57-70

    The function of social media and it's awareness and information can play a significant role in the changes in stock prices and investors' decision making. Fluctuation is an important measure of financial performance that reflects uncertainty or risk. In view of this, the present study investigated and analyzed the social media and the fluctuations of the Tehran Stock Market during the period of April 2011 to August 2021 using auto-regression model. The results show that the instantaneous reaction functions of the stock returns of active companies in the Tehran stock market to the changes in the social media, the number of shares of the companies, the infected and the dead of covid-19 were positive until the third and fourth periods, and after the mentioned periods of shock entered into the explanatory variables did not have an effect on the fluctuation of the companies' returns. Also, the results of the analysis of variance showed the high effects of the number of shares of the companies in the changes of the efficiency of the companies and the effect of social media in explaining very slight changes in fluctuations have been observed

    Keywords: social media, fluctuations, Financial performance, Stock Market
  • Azam Mohammadi Pashto, Mahmoud Hashemitabar *, Ramezan Hosainzadeh Pages 71-84

    In this research, the effect of changes in energy prices on output of different sectors by using of regional input output of Hormozgan province is investigated. The AFLQ method is used for regionalization of national I_O table. Three scenarios for the increase in energy prices have been considered. The results showed that except of water, electricity and gas/ sector, the output of other sectors has decreased. In the first scenario, the increase in the output of Water, Electricity and Gas/ sector was equal to 38574.52 million Rials whereas the output of transportation sector had the largest decrease in production. Industry and agriculture sectors are the other sectors that have the largest decrease in output after transportation.Total decrease of regional output in first scenario was 1896633.17 million Rials. As a result of the research, 20% increase in the price of energy carriers, about 0.28% of the total production of the province has decreased. In the second and third scenario total decrement of regional output was 512973.80 and 3048927.86 million Rials, respectively. Decrement of agriculture output in these two scenarios was 362099.15 and 512973.80 million Rials. Considering the importance of the agricultural sector in food production, supporting the production of this sector is necessary using appropriate policies such as guaranteed purchase or decrease of tax rate and technology subsidies in different sectors. These policies can provide the necessary incentives to adjust towards more efficient energy technologies, in order to ultimately reduce the negative effects of the increase in the price of energy.

    Keywords: The Energy Carriers price, Agricultural Production, Input-output model, Iran
  • Mirabdollah Hosseini *, Faezeh Moradi Haghighi Pages 85-110

    The Competitive Industrial Performance Index (CIP) measures a country's ability to produce, add value, export, and impact global trade through manufacturing industries. To improve industrial competitiveness, focus must be given to expanding production and enhancing its quality with technological advancements. Developing countries need to build technological capacity, increase production, and invest in infrastructure to upgrade their industrial competitiveness. However, Iran's Competitive Industrial Performance has fallen behind, lacking a favorable position in the region and the world. The annual reports of the UNIDO analyzing data from 1990 to 2020 shows that Iran's performance has been weak compared to similar economies. The gap between Iran and the global benchmark (Germany with a score of 0.416) and the regional benchmark (Turkey with a score of 0.117) has widened over the past three decades. Additionally, Iran's manufacturing industry production and export structures have experienced two different directions of transformation in the past two decades. From 2000 to 2010, concurrent with the Third and Fourth Development Plans, the Manufacturing Value Added share in total GDP (MVAsh) increased from 9% to 14%, and the Medium- and High-tech manufacturing Value-Added share (MHVASH) in total manufacturing value added increased from 41% to 45%. However, during the years 2010 to 2020, concurrent with the Fifth and Sixth Development Plans, both of these mentioned indicators regressed. Notably, the regression in the level of technology for high-tech products, from 0.9% to 0.5%, is continuously declining and poses a fundamental challenge for Iran's industrial competitiveness.

    Keywords: Competitive Industrial Performance, technology levels, technological content, structural transformations, Iran
  • Saeid Sehhat, Alireza Habibi, Mohammad Ghaffary Fard *, Yahaya Abdulmumin Pages 111-141

    This study employs a quantitative approach, utilizing the gravity model and FMOLS estimation, to examine how economic sanctions affect the trade relationship between Iran and Nigeria. Additionally, it explores the influence of factors such as GDP, exchange rate, strong sanctions, and weak sanctions. By doing so, this research contributes to the existing knowledge on bilateral trade between these two nations and provides valuable insights into areas that require attention for fostering trade development between them. The research findings reveal that in the bilateral trade relationship between Iran and Nigeria, there exists a positive correlation between GDP and weak sanctions (LIM) with trade. An increase of 1% in GDP leads to a 7.79% increase in trade, while a 1% increase in weak sanctions contributes to a 3.91% increase in trade. Conversely, strong sanctions and exchange rate have a negative impact on trade, with a 1% increment in strong sanctions resulting in a 1.18% decrease in trade, and a 1% increment in exchange rate leading to a 1.96% decrease in trade.

    Keywords: Economic Sanctions, Trade, GDP, Exchange Rate
  • AliAsghar Anvary Rostamy *, Hossein Ghorbani Farmad Pages 143-170
    Objective

    In today's interconnected global economy, changes in one market can have ripple effects across related markets, making it essential for economic and financial policymakers and experts to accurately predict these mutual impacts. Various methods have been developed to forecast the impact and mutual impressions of financial markets. In this study, a generic framework is proposed for forecasting economic and financial market indicators using the interrelationship of shocks among global financial markets and a system dynamic approach.

    Methods

    To demonstrate the stages of the proposed generic framework and system dynamics modeling, as an example, the study forecasts the Iranian economic and the Tehran Stock Exchange indicators using their interactions with eleven major global financial markets, including London, Tokyo, Shanghai, Frankfurt, Paris, Milan, SIX Swiss, Istanbul, Korea, Bombay Stock Exchanges, and Dubai Financial Market. The New York Stock Exchange index return is used as a stimulant or driver for the other stock exchanges in the model.

    Results

    The results indicate that the proposed forecasting model successfully predicted the Iranian economic and the Tehran Stock Exchange indicators. Furthermore, the study finds that while Iranian exports are sensitive to global financial markets, the sensitivity of imports and production returns to global financial markets is low.

    Conclusions

    The proposed generic framework and system dynamics modeling can provide valuable insights for predicting different economies using their interactions with the global economy and finances.

    Keywords: Economic Indicators, Financial markets, Forecasting, System Dynamics, Tehran Stock Exchange