Analysis of Monthly Rainfall in the Bandar Anzali Using Chaos Theory under Climate Change Condition

Development of cities and the intensification of pollution are two important factors for climate change; on the other hand, changes in land usage and worsening environmental condition lead to the spatial and temporal variation in precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration etc., which make the hydrological variables more complex, and the prediction of them is more difficult. Chaos theory is a tool that proposed based on the chaotic and complex behavior and it can be appropriate for rainfall data with a higher variation coefficient. In this study, monthly rainfall of the Bandar Anzali in the historical and climate change condition has been considered by applying chaos theory. For this purpose, the period of 1993-2010 was chosen as historical period and the results of LARS-WG model under three scenarios (A1B), (B1), and (A2), in the period of 2020-2035 were considered as a future period. According to the results, flood and drought will increase with a 14 percent reduction in rainfall in the future period. Moreover, the historical and generated data series showed deterministic chaotic behavior and the A2 scenario with the fractal dimension of 4.13 showed the most complexity in comparison with others.Development of cities and the intensification of pollution are two important factors for climate change; on the other hand, changes in land usage and worsening environmental condition lead to the spatial and temporal variation in precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration etc., which make the hydrological variables more complex, and the prediction of them is more difficult. Chaos theory is a tool that proposed based on the chaotic and complex behavior and it can be appropriate for rainfall data with a higher variation coefficient. In this study, monthly rainfall of the Bandar Anzali in the historical and climate change condition has been considered by applying chaos theory. For this purpose, the period of 1993-2010 was chosen as historical period and the results of LARS-WG model under three scenarios (A1B), (B1), and (A2), in the period of 2020-2035 were considered as a future period. According to the results, flood and drought will increase with a 14 percent reduction in rainfall in the future period. Moreover, the historical and generated data series showed deterministic chaotic behavior and the A2 scenario with the fractal dimension of 4.13 showed the most complexity in comparison with others.Development of cities and the intensification of pollution are two important factors for climate change; on the other hand, changes in land usage and worsening environmental condition lead to the spatial and temporal variation in precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration etc., which make the hydrological variables more complex, and the prediction of them is more difficult. Chaos theory is a tool that proposed based on the chaotic and complex behavior and it can be appropriate for rainfall data with a higher variation coefficient. In this study, monthly rainfall of the Bandar Anzali in the historical and climate change condition has been considered by applying chaos theory. For this purpose, the period of 1993-2010 was chosen as historical period and the results of LARS-WG model under three scenarios (A1B), (B1), and (A2), in the period of 2020-2035 were considered as a future period. According to the results, flood and drought will increase with a 14 percent reduction in rainfall in the future period. Moreover, the historical and generated data series showed deterministic chaotic behavior and the A2 scenario with the fractal dimension of 4.13 showed the most complexity in comparison with others.Development of cities and the intensification of pollution are two important factors for climate change; on the other hand, changes in land usage and worsening environmental condition lead to the spatial and temporal variation in precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration etc., which make the hydrological variables more complex, and the prediction of them is more difficult. Chaos theory is a tool that proposed based on the chaotic and complex behavior and it can be appropriate for rainfall data with a higher variation coefficient. In this study, monthly rainfall of the Bandar Anzali in the historical and climate change condition has been considered by applying chaos theory. For this purpose, the period of 1993-2010 was chosen as historical period and the results of LARS-WG model under three scenarios (A1B), (B1), and (A2), in the period of 2020-2035 were considered as a future period. According to the results, flood and drought will increase with a 14 percent reduction in rainfall in the future period. Moreover, the historical and generated data series showed deterministic chaotic behavior and the A2 scenario with the fractal dimension of 4.13 showed the most complexity in comparison with others.