The Impact of Islamic Awakeningon on the Future of Saudi Political System

The popular uprising in the Arabic countries, which began in Tunisia in 2010, quickly has spread to other countries in the Western Asia and North Africa and created the wave of modern Islamic awakening in the Arab world. The Islamic Awakening in different countries created various scenarios based on the political culture of each society, the structure of government, and the political economy, and geopolitical position of each country, and consequently, caused political changes including revolutions, reforms, foreign military interventions, civil wars, and social rebellions. This development led to transformation in some countries such as Saudi Arabia. Therefore, in light of these changes, this study aims to find out the effect of Islamic Awakening in the future of Saudi Arabia’s political system. This research utilized a variety of future study methods including Delphi method, prospects analysis, cross-sectional analysis, and scenario writing, to answer the research question. The statistical population includes the ambassadors and their deputies of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Saudi Arabia, and the sample size has been determined by Cochran’s formula. Five scenarios were identified, among which one was approved for its high compatibility. In this scenario, it was shown that Islamic awakening would effectively change the power relations in Saudi Arabia and the Saudi political system will be overthrown in the future.