The Rise and Fall of a Model; Understanding Turkey's Foreign Policy in the Post-Arab Revolutions

This paper aims to understand the key variables influencing changes and continuities of Turkish foreign policy in the post- Arab revolutions, in a systematic way. The Arab revolutions, as an exogenous shock by transforming the structure of regional power and identity, providing uncertain opportunities and threats, has severely changed Turkish assertive and soft power-based foreign policy vision. Over the past decade, regional developments have provided space for Turkey to seek a more active and assertive role in the region, though Turkey’s own limitations, policy choices, and regional dynamics have somewhat restricted its ability to do so. This shift has gradually Middle Easternized Turkey’s foreign policy directions. Through the prism of the Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA), this paper seeks to formulate; what drivers (structural-internal) and how to shape Turkey's assertive and security-based foreign policy behavior in the post- Arab revolutions? To do so, the paper by analyzing the structural and internal determinants in changing Turkey's foreign policy approaches, highlights the role of mediating variables; especially the AKP leaders’ misperception to seize regional leadership, overestimation of their material and discursive capacities, and miscalculations of the shifting Middle East geopolitics and regional rival’s capabilities.