Analysis of Arms Race in Western Asia Based of Offensive and Defensive Realism Using Vector Error Correction Method

Idealism approach in international relations believes that arms proliferation results in aggravation of conflicts and brings war, recommending disarmament as the solution.  Oppositely, Realism approach highlights chaos and anarchy among countries, but in order to solve the security puzzle puts forward two views: defensive realism and offensive realism. Defensive realism believes that in an anarchy, countries should proceed toward agreements in order to yield security. But, offensive realism explains that states foster their military power in order to gain security by attaining dominance and hegemony. Since no country tend to drop behind the others, a race will engender on the raising armaments that is called Arms Race. This study aims to assess the arms race among western Asia countries including Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel during 1977-2018.

Theoretical model is based on Richardson Model and empirical study uses times series econometrics, particularly Vector Error Correction Models (VECM).

Results show that Iran and Israel are experiencing arms race. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are unilaterally affected by Israel's military expenditures.

Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey all react to Israel actions, that is, Israel is the instability factor of the West Asia. Furthermore, there is evidence of arms race in the West Asia and so an immediate action is necessary.