نشریه مطالعات سیاسی جهان اسلام
پیاپی 47 (پاییز 1402)

Providing a framework in the field of regional foresight to understand complex situations for new regional regeneration.

Analytical-descriptive approach and qualitative research method have been used in this research. To collect information, the library method in the form of texts, as well as the method of interviewing experts individually and group meetings through theoretical saturation sampling has been used.

Based on the principles and key concepts of the proposed framework, for regional regeneration, it is necessary to avoid undue generalization of a type of approach and action pattern in all domains of the future reality (The reality of the future of the West Asian region), and based on the principle of "bounded of application" with the boundaries of each domain, for Each domain and domain applies an action approach adapted to the context. Based on the framework of understanding the future reality, in order to create a new regional order, in the domain of structural realism, creating a common market and common transit, in the area of realism of agency, activation of regional potential cores, in the area of constructionist agency sense-making and new regional narratives, and in the area of discursive constructionism, the creation and promotion of the regional discourse of ILAF has been proposed.

The result of applying the proposed framework is that for the new creation of the West Asia region, in two main domains and sub-domains, approaches compatible with the nature of each domain should be taken into consideration. In this case, the region will be connected with its original roots, and it will be able to gain geopolitical power, so that its nations will find a suitable role and place in the world system.

The Persian Gulf, with its unique geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic characteristics, has historically been considered by regional and trans-regional countries. For this reason, the conflicting approaches and attitudes of each of the actors in this region have made the Persian Gulf one of the most divergent regions in the world; So that we have witnessed the lack of lasting security in the region. Accordingly, the present study seeks to analyze the obstacles to the formation of a regional security system in the Persian Gulf.

The method used is descriptive-analytical, which uses the theory of constructivism to answer the question of what factors have prevented the formation of a regional security system in the Persian Gulf?

The findings show that self-help and lack of a common security strategy, geopolitical environmental challenges, currency and border disputes, crisis of democracy and internal disputes (ethnic, racial and political), homogeneous and fragile economies, religious disputes and inequalities Cultural and social, the decline of traditional hegemony and the multiplicity of polarity and continuity in the arms race are obstacles that have prevented the formation of a stable security regime in the region.

The complexity and instability of the security regime in the Persian Gulf region, in addition to foreign interference, has been more the result of conflicting approaches and perceptions of regional actors and these problems and obstacles require tolerance for more dialogue and drawing a new model to resolve. The security concerns of all countries in the region are for the formation of lasting security in the Persian Gulf.

Iran is situated in a delicate area of West Asia, commonly referred to as the Middle East. Given this geopolitical location, gaining knowledge about the various actors and the nature of their role-playing is of primary importance in shaping Iran's foreign relations and effectively guiding its regional policy. Among regional actors, there exist states that are commonly referred to as Small States in the field of International Relations. While sharing common characteristics that group them together under the umbrella term of ”Small States”, these governments demonstrate variations in their actions, which naturally have diverse impacts on the foreign relations of the Islamic Republic. This article utilizes qualitative documentary method to analyze and compare the foreign policies of Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, particularly in the context of the Arab Spring events. The primary objective is to gain insight and comprehensively analyze and compare the differences in the foreign policies of these two governments.The findings demonstrate that, alongside prominent regional powers like the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia, smaller governments like the United Arab Emirates and Jordan have also played significant roles in the post-Arab Spring era. The United Arab Emirates, despite its small size, has pursued an assertive foreign policy approach by forging alliances with major regional and international powers. This has led to the adoption of a military-centric model, reflecting in its active involvement in regional affairs such as Bahrain, the Yemen war, Iran's nuclear issue, and developments in Libya. Conversely, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has pursued a conflict-avoidance strategy, primarily relying on diplomatic and political means to safeguard its national interests while refraining from direct military engagement.

In the last century, following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the theoretical, conceptual and field developments in the Islamic world, a suitable opportunity was created to play the role of various types of Sunni Islamism, including the Ikhwan al muslimeen, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Salafism, Wahhabi and Salafism Jihadi (such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS) etc. at national and international levels.Of course, most of these movements failed to achieve their goals, but this did not remove them from the scene of regional and international activism. Rather, in cases like the Taliban, we have witnessed their return to power. Or the Ikhwan al muslimeen is always fluctuating in the dynamic between social action and political action and the anti-occupation movements have also strengthened the resistance front. The main question of this article is what is the current situation of the Sunni Islamists and where is their position in the Arab world. Which was examined through future study and extracting the drivers, uncertainties, drivers and understanding the side and direction and discursive space of Sunni Islamism, and based on this, the upcoming scenarios have been drawn.

Ethnic groups in Iran have internal social cleavages that affect their political life. The Arabs living in Iran are no exception to this rule and despite their linguistic and religious unity, they have some internal social cleavages that have political consequences at different levels. Examining these cleavages and their political consequences is the main concern of this article. Therefore, in this regard, we raised the question, what kind of social cleavages do the Arabs living in Iran have within their ethnicity, and what political consequences did this issue have?

This article is written using descriptive-analytical method and based on library sources and interview technique.

To reach this goal, we tried to investigate the historical process of intra-ethnic cleavages and its political consequences with the approach of historical sociology and using the technique of library studies along with interviews with researchers. The research results showed traditional and modern social cleavage such as "Tribal cleavage"; "City-Tribe cleavage"; "generational cleavage"; and "gender cleavage" along with some political cleavages such as "ideological and organizational cleavage" which can be categorized as "modernity" and "convergence-divergence" cleavage. These cleavages among the Arabs have caused their political identity should be plural.

From the beginning of the formation of ethnic movements, one of the important factors in the failure of some separatist currents in bringing all ethnic groups together is the existence of intra-ethnic pluralism and diverse intra-ethnic political currents.

Many analyzes about the Arbaeen phenomenon have been in the field of geopolitics and the political consequences of this phenomenon for the region and the world. While this phenomenon cannot be limited to the political-security domain; Rather, the analyzes of geoculture, focusing on identity issues, will shed light on its various dimensions, and from this entry, we can also enter into the identity analyzes surrounding the regional order. Based on this, it is very important to analyze why and how the Arbaeen procession affects the Shia geoculture, focusing on the identitarianism arising from it.

In methodology, research indicators, society and statistical sample will be studied using quantitative methods. This article is practical in terms of purpose, quantitative in terms of method, and field survey in terms of data collection method.

The findings of the research show that most of the statistical sample of the research, despite having different views on Shiite identityism, are sensitive to its existing challenges and have a tendency to be active. Also, the statistical sample of the Arbaeen procession has evaluated the promotion of the sense of belonging to the Shiite identity, which shows that; The Arbaeen ceremony has had a positive effect in preserving, consolidating and strengthening the Shiite identity among its followers.

Based on the findings of the research, the fading of physical boundaries and the expansion of identity boundaries in the belief of social forces in the future, it seems likely that if it is accompanied by the provision of solidarity grounds, it will cause It will be the cultural geography of social groups.