Innovative Measurement of Water Poverty Index in West Azerbaijan Province Based on Effective Data-Mining Mathematical-Analytical Models

In recent years, due to drought, population growth, and the decline in groundwater reserves, the water poverty became an essential measure to consider. The main objective of this study is to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the of groundwater resources poverty based on two innovative effective and data-mining mathematical-analytical methods considering the six factors of capacity, environment, infrastructure and access, water resources, management and climate (57 variables) in the West Azerbaijan province for the period of 1390-1398 (2011-2019). The value of comprehensive water poverty index was obtained as 53.03 and 53.67 in two effective and data-mining mathematical-analytical models, respectively. The results showed that for the models the factors of water resources, management and climate cause relative unsustainability in groundwater resources systems. The comprehensive water poverty index has increased from 2012 to 2018, while the value of this index has reached a relatively stable status after the implementation of plans and projects related to groundwater resources management. The years 2011, 2013, and 2017 are respectively the milestones for the change of the status of the comprehensive water poverty index from very low to low, low to medium, and medium to high. As one of the unique innovations of the current research, considering the climate factor along with the extreme climatology phenomena in measuring comprehensive water poverty can play a key role in decision making and formulating management plans in water sector. Also, the development of a data-mining model which reduces the number of variables included in the measurement of the water poverty index, can effectively reduce the time, cost and resources used for the water projects. Finally, investigating the effect of the two sub-projects related to the Groundwater reclamation and balancing plan i.e. 1) equipping wells with smart measuring tools, and 2) culture and information project, on the water poverty index showed that the mentioned projects in some cases require management reforms that should be taken into consideration by the managers and the policy makers.