The effect of exchange rate volatility on outward migration: A Synthetic Control Group approach

The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of exchange rate jump on the outflow of migration using the Synthetic Control Group approach during the period of 1980-2015 in Iran. For this purpose, based on this approach, the countries with real exchange rate stability were selected and among them, the weighted composition of the countries that had the most similarity in the situation before the real exchange rate jump of Iran was estimated. Therefore, two groups were formed, including the group of selected countries named artificial Iran and the other, real Iran. Finally, the results of the estimates of these two groups were compared and analyzed. The results indicate a 15% difference in the immigration process of artificial Iran and real Iran. The analysis of the results showed that the impact of the jump in the real exchange rate on the migration flow in Iran was positive. Based on the results, it is suggested that policymakers pay attention to the destructive effect of real exchange rate jumps on the flow of migration from the country and adopt appropriate economic policies to stabilize the real exchange rate.