فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال هفدهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 63، پاییز 1402)

The objective of this paper is to examine the welfare cost of inflation in the context of Iran's economy, incorporating labor market frictions (search theory) within a monetary general equilibrium model. The model also features a cash-in-advance constraint. To achieve this goal, through the utilization of calibration and sensitivity analysis in the steady state, the findings indicate that both employment and production are contingent on the elasticity of labor supply and the elasticity of vacancies in job matches. Depending on these two parameters, they may exhibit an increase in response to an escalation in the inflation rate. Additionally, the three-month optimal inflation rate in a stable state is determined to be 4.66%. The welfare gains, derived from reducing the three-month inflation rate from its current level of 5.3% to the optimal rate in a steady state, is calculated to be 0.0031% of total consumption. Therefore, based on the results, it is suggested that in inflation reduction policies, the effects of this reduction on welfare are taken into consideration, and special attention should be paid to the area of business investment by giving tax incentives, especially tax credits.

This paper seeks to explore the nonlinear association between liquidity indicators and debt repayment capacity in relation to asset returns. For this purpose, the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) method was employed to examine the nonlinear impact of liquidity indicators (including the ratios of current assets to total deposits, total loans granted to total deposits, and total loans granted to total assets and debt payment capacity indicators (such as the debt ratio and interest coverage ratio) on asset returns from 2011 to 2020. The findings revealed a nonlinear effect of all calculated indicators on asset returns. The magnitude and manner of the independent variables' influence on asset returns varied at different levels, with noticeable distinctions in the effect before and after the threshold value of 1.0586. In light of these results, bank policymakers can strategically select an optimal liquidity level to enhance bank profitability based on asset returns.

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the effect of industrial concentration and import of capital goods on the intensity of energy consumption in Iranian industries. Industrial concentration index has been calculated using Herfindahl-Hirschman method and relative entropy. In this research, the panel data method and the fixed effects model were used to estimate the coefficients of the models. The research findings indicate that between 2002 and 2018,  industrial concentration and import of capital goods have a positive and statistically significant effect on the intensity of energy consumption. So that, one percent increase in the share of the industry in the market, increases the intensity of energy consumption between 0,089 to 0.203 percent. Also, the price of energy carriers has a negative effect on the intensity of energy consumption. Considering the inverse relationship between the price of energy carriers and energy intensity and the low elasticity of the price, it is  necessary that incrementally raise the energy prices for industries logically causing environmental pollution to decrease their energy intensity. It is suggested that capital goods enter industries that have low energy consumption.

Foreign direct investment stands as a crucial economic variable, influenced by various factors that contribute to its attraction. Empirical studies reveal that both visible and invisible elements play a role in shaping FDI in any given country, often eluding straightforward inclusion in economic models. This research, recognizing the significance of this subject, delves into the impact of economic sanctions on the attraction of foreign direct investment in Iran over 44 years, employing a fuzzy approach. The findings underscore the substantial and moderate economic sanctions, characterized by high and robust fuzzy coefficients, exerting a notable negative effect on the allure of foreign direct investment in Iran. Additionally, the study reveals that variables such as the budget deficit, inflation rate, mild economic sanctions, adverse exchange rates, alongside factors like gross domestic product, economic openness, domestic interest rates, foreign direct investment with interruptions, governance quality index, and the effective tax rate on company profits, have exhibited a positive influence on the attraction of foreign direct investment in Iran.

The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of exchange rate jump on the outflow of migration using the Synthetic Control Group approach during the period of 1980-2015 in Iran. For this purpose, based on this approach, the countries with real exchange rate stability were selected and among them, the weighted composition of the countries that had the most similarity in the situation before the real exchange rate jump of Iran was estimated. Therefore, two groups were formed, including the group of selected countries named artificial Iran and the other, real Iran. Finally, the results of the estimates of these two groups were compared and analyzed. The results indicate a 15% difference in the immigration process of artificial Iran and real Iran. The analysis of the results showed that the impact of the jump in the real exchange rate on the migration flow in Iran was positive. Based on the results, it is suggested that policymakers pay attention to the destructive effect of real exchange rate jumps on the flow of migration from the country and adopt appropriate economic policies to stabilize the real exchange rate.