نشریه اقتصاد پولی، مالی
پیاپی 24 (پاییز و زمستان 1401)

Given the dependence of the country's economy on banks as the most important source of financing for companies, it is important to study the factors affecting the performance of the banking system; Therefore, in this study, the effect of exchange rate shocks, crude oil prices, total stock index and government budget on the performance (profitability) of the country's banking system in the form of 12 scenarios based on the profitability response of the banking network to 2%, 5% and 10 Shock% was addressed in the mentioned variables. For this purpose, research data were collected from the SAM matrix of the Majles Research Center in 2011 and the data-output table of the Central Bank in 2016. Also, the dynamic recursive dynamic calculus model (RDCGE) and Math Lab software were used to analyze the data. The results showed that the informal exchange rate and crude oil prices have an inverse effect and the total government stock index and budget have a direct effect on the profitability of the banking network; So that if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% is applied to the informal exchange rate, the profitability of the banking network will decrease to a maximum of 1.73, 2.01 and 2.57%, respectively. Also, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% is applied to the price of crude oil, the profitability of the banking network will decrease to a maximum of 1.41, 1.63 and 2.03%, respectively. In addition, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% enters the total stock index, the profitability of the banking network will increase to a maximum of 0.47, 0.97 and 1.52%, respectively. Finally, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% enters the government budget, the profitability of the banking network will increase to a maximum of 0.38, 0.44 and 0.61%, respectively.

With the tightening of sanctions and the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA in 2017, the maximum pressure on Iran caused great damage to Iran's economy. It is predicted that in the new period after the JCPOA, these sanctions will have many destructive effects on the performance indicators of selected industries of the Tehran Stock Exchange. Based on this, the purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of some macroeconomic variables. During the sanctions periods (before and after the JCPOA), it is based on the performance indicators of the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange (selected industries: automobile, chemical, medicine and steel).In terms of the purpose of this research, it is considered as applied research, and the current research is of the post-event type, that is, it is based on the analysis of past information (financial statements of companies). Also, the method of this research is correlational in nature and content. The time period of the research includes 11 consecutive years from 1389 to 1399.The results of the research showed that sanctions had a moderating role on the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and added value of companies. Sanctions in all selected industries, except the automobile industry, have had a moderating role on the relationship between the volume of foreign investment and the investment activities of companies. Sanctions in all selected industries, except the automobile industry, have had a moderating role on the relationship between the price index of products and the profitability of companies. Sanctions in the whole sample and in the chemical industry, on the relationship between the import of intermediate goods and capital and operational activities of companies have a moderating role.Keywords: sanctions, exchange rate fluctuations, volume of foreign investment, performance indicators of companies.

The present article compares the effectiveness of financing from the banking system and the stock market on the performance of listed companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange. Test cases have been studied. This study examined the statistical data of 55 companies during 7 years (3 years before entry, 3 years after entry and year of entry) and concluded that between the effects of financing from the banking system and the stock market on the performance of firms In this study, the productivity variables of total factors of production, investment and employment as performance variables, and long-term facilities, capital increase from cash flow and entry into the stock market as an independent variable and firm size, interest rate, Firm production, wages, public and private ownership of the company are considered as control variables. According to the research results, financing from the banking system has a positive and significant effect on the investment variable as a performance variable, while entering the stock market and increasing cash flow does not have a significant effect on the investment variable. Also, the effect of entering the stock market and increasing cash flow, such as the effect of financing from the banking system on the productivity variables of all factors of production and employment is meaningless.

The oil sector, as the most important economic sector of the country, has played a significant role in the economic growth and development of the country and, therefore, has always been given special attention by managers and decision makers. Investing in this sector makes its capacity and potentials real and causes its effects on other economic sectors of the country. In a general division, the factors affecting investment can be divided into real and monetary categories. In this study, the effect of exchange rate and oil price shocks as monetary shocks and GDP shocks and value added of the oil sector as real shocks on investment in the oil sector has been investigated. To do this, the Bayesian self-regression approach (BVAR) and the data of 1357-99 years have been used. The results of the instantaneous reaction function show that the shocks of GDP, value added and oil prices have a positive effect on investment in the oil sector, among which, the shock of GDP has the greatest effect. Also, the exchange rate shock initially has a contractionary effect on investment in this sector, and after two periods, the amount of investment increases.

Today, new financial technologies (fin Teches) have caused extensive changes in the banking industry. In recent years, new financial technologies have become the most popular term in the word is economic markets. Investors in these emerging markets are looking to innovate to improve their position. However, new financial technologies to achieve the desired position. they have a long way to g but these new financial technologies have been able to make significant changes in some economic variable, but the impact of new financial technologies on economic variables, including monetary variables, is inevitable. This effect has led to the prediction of the behavior of these variables (new financial technology) for policy makers, especially in the monetary field, so in this study to investigate the role of new financial technology (fin Teches) on Monetary Base Usages in the Iran during The years 1392-1398 are paid quarterly. In this research, the variable of total mobile and Internet (off-bank websites and applications) transactions has been used as a variable of new financial technology The model used is the self- explanatory model Auto Regressive Distributed lag (ARDL) The results show that the emergence of new financial technologies increases Income Velocity, Money multiplier and Supply of Money and on the other hand leads to a decrease Monetary Base Usages. In general, new financial technologies (fintechs) are closely related to the startup business. Establishing e-commerce requires appropriate economic, technical, telecommunication, legal, human and cultural foundations. New financial technologies play an important role in the development of e-commerce, and new banking services and products, including contactless payment models, financial systems created by public donations, and other such models, can provide important and new opportunities for banks. New banking based on financial technology allows banks to expand and expand their market beyond traditional deposit and lending schemes. Double new banking can reduce the bank's operating costs. On a larger scale, the continued advancement of financial technology-based banking can contribute to reducing retail transaction costs both nationally and internationally, and this in turn can potentially lead to greater productivity and economic prosperity. Therefore, new financial technology and its impact on the monetary sphere and its concepts and nature need to be studied and explained. In this study, the role of new financial technology on monetary base expenditures in Iran will be investigated. Money, the speed of money circulation, the increasing monetary coefficient and the monetary base expenditures in Iran are discussed. In the last chapter, the conclusions and necessary proposals for the use of new financial technology in Iran are mentioned.

 The current research has been designed to design the overflow model of probability of financial helplessness in Iran's banking system with the approach of multivariate GARCH models.The statistical population of the includes the banks admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange, which have been analyzed in the period of 2015 to 2019. To calculate them, time series data of banks' stock returns, equity value, book value of liabilities and daily value of assets have been used. The current research has investigated the probability of financial helplessness spillover to other banks by applying the KMV method and the concept of distance to default and by using the VAR model and the multivariate GARCH method (DCC-GARCH).The results of the research have shown that there is a significant relationship between the financial helplessness risk of banks with each other; Mellat Bank is exposed to the highest risk of helplessness contagion and Parsian Bank shows the least effectiveness. Based on the results of the model, the increase in operational risks of banks, including credit risk and market risk, has a significant effect on increasing the risk of financial helplessness, and this risk can spread to other banks in the banks' communication network and then to the entire economy.

The value relevance of financial statements is of great significance to investors and standard setters. Comparability of accounting is one of the increasing features in the financial reporting system. It generally means that two reporting entities that face the same economic events use the same accounting methods to record underlying transactions. The present research examines whether the accounting comparability among industry peers enhances the value relevance of earnings and book value. This is an important question because both the Financial Accounting Standards Board and the Securities Exchange Commission seek greater comparability in financial reporting.Research

In order to study the subject based on the panel regression model, in the period 2010 to 2020, data of 111 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange were collected and used to test research hypotheses.

The results show that accounting comparability increases the value relevance of earnings, but not book value. Financial statements that are more comparable do better in gaining the trust of users, which increases the value relevance of earnings per share. This means that when companies demonstrate the ability to compare more information than their industry counterparts, investors place a higher value on reported profits. However, the incremental benefits of accounting comparability are attenuated when financial reporting opacity is high or when there exists an internal control material weakness over financial reporting. In contrast, comparability benefits are enhanced when an industry specialist auditor is employed.

Financial development in banks, as the most important pillar of Iran's financing system, requires identifying business opportunities and facilitating the exchange of goods and services through diversification of financing methods and focusing on improving the effectiveness of the resource allocation system with the aim of attracting Customer satisfaction.Achieving these goals requires the use of integrated management systems that simultaneously focus on financial, marketing and decision-making issues. Credit solutions such as inland letters of credit are especially important in the field of indirect provision of funds needed for those active in industrial markets, which are referred to industrial customers.In this research, based on the grounded theory methods and the multi-criteria decision-making combined approach, the criteria for segmenting industrial customers applying for inland letters of credit and the internal and external factors affecting the development of services to this group of customers were prioritized. The findings of the research show that if the bank focuses on eliminating the weaknesses in the system in order to take advantage of significant environmental opportunities in the business environment of customers, it will have a smoother path for financial development and the realization of its financial goals and policies.

Reviewing the efficiency of banks as one of the most important pillars of each country's financial markets is one of the essential steps to achieve economic growth and development. Banks, as the most important monetary market entity, have played a very important role in the economy of each country, and measuring the efficiency of banks is of particular importance given their role and the rapid reflection of the policies of this sector in the entire economy of the country. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to measure the efficiency of selected private banks (modern economy, Pasargadae, capital, exports, nation, trade and welfare) and government (national, export development, industry and mining) during the study period (1393-1395). Be To achieve this goal, two nonparametric approaches (data coverage analysis) and a parametric approach (border production function) have been used using value added and earnings method. The findings confirm the main hypothesis. In the study period, private banks were more efficient than government banks. Regardless of the income approach of the data coverage analysis method, the second hypothesis of the research was that the outcomes of the approaches were similar Parametric and nonparametric is also confirmed.

According to Fisher's theory, an increase in expected inflation results in a unit increase in nominal interest rates, and the real interest rate, which plays a key role in shaping investment and savings behavior, remains constant, and this factor, although inflation Leads to the neutralization of monetary policy;On the other hand, based on the theory of quantity of money and the direct relationship between the velocity of money and the general level of prices, as well as the direct effect of the velocity of money on interest rates, raising interest rates is expected to increase inflation.This effect of interest rates on the inflation index (according to some economists) is not only related to inflation and affects other macroeconomic variables, but the important issue is the type, manner and amount of this effect in the short term and It is a long-term study in the present study using VAR and VECM methods and in the period of 1360 to 1399.The results of the study show the confirmation of Fisher's theory in the Iranian economy both in the short and long term, and suggest that there is a positive and significant relationship between the interest rate variable and the inflation index in the Iranian economy.In addition, variable interest rate fluctuations overshadow other macroeconomic indicators, as this relationship is inverse for the economic growth index and physical investment and direct for the inflation rate index.

Nowadays, money laundering has become a serious threat to the world economy. Traditional methods of Anti Money Laundering (AML) are costly and inefficient. Recently, data mining techniques have been developed and have been considered as appropriate methods to detect money laundering activities. The purpose of this research is to detect money laundering suspicious cases which might need more detailed scrutiny using data mining algorithms with real banking transaction datasets. CRISP-DM would be used as the research methodology, the statistical population would be the banking transactions and samples would be the transactions of one of the bank branches. For this purpose, two main approaches are used. In the first approach, using the k-means algorithm, financial transactions of banking accounts are clustered. Then, using anomaly detection techniques, abnormal transactions that might be suspicious of money laundering and need to be scrutinized in more detail have been detected. In the second approach, a novel technique using Benford’s law and GANs algorithm has been introduced. It can detect financial accounts that used concocted amounts in their transactions and might be suspicious of financial fraud and money laundering. The first approach can identify accounts with outliers in their transactions with an accuracy of about 93%, and the second approach can identify suspicious accounts that do not use professional methods to hide fake figures in their transactions with an accuracy of about 60%. to recognize correctly.