فهرست مطالب

فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه
پیاپی 123 (پاییز 1402)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1402/09/01
  • تعداد عناوین: 10
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  • الهام مهرپرور حسینی، حامد رفیعی*، نرگس شاه نباتی، مهدیس عارف پور صفحات 1-30
    سیاست های حمایتی اجرا شده از سوی دولت برای محصول راهبردی گندم در بخش کشاورزی ایران با آثار توزیعی متفاوت در استان های کشور از اهمیت چشمگیری برخوردار است. در پژوهش حاضر، ضمن محاسبه انواع شاخص های حمایت از قیمت بازاری (MPS)، پرداخت های بودجه ای (BP) و برآورد حمایت از تولیدکننده (PSE) در دوره زمانی برنامه های سوم تا پنجم توسعه اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی ایران، رابطه همبستگی آنها با عملکرد در واحد سطح تولید گندم دیم و آبی بررسی شد و سپس، به ‏منظور برنامه ریزی و سیاست گذاری، استان ها با الگوریتم کی‏ میانگین در خوشه های همگن دسته بندی شدند. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که با وجود اجرای سیاست های یکسان در سراسر کشور، مقادیر حمایت از قیمت بازاری، حمایت بودجه ای و حمایت کل از تولیدکنندگان، به ‏دلیل تفاوت های اقلیمی، رفتار تولیدکنندگان در مدیریت مزرعه، فناوری، بهره وری، مزیت های نسبی هزینه ای و تولیدی و فاصله از گمرک، متفاوت است، به‏ گونه ‏ای که گندم کاران استان های با بهره وری کمتر مقدار بیشتری حمایت در هر کیلوگرم محصول گندم دریافت می کنند؛ همچنین، سیاست های قیمتی در اغلب سال ها موجب حمایت از تولیدکنندگان نشده و اما بر اساس نتایج برآورد شاخص PSE، در برنامه های سوم تا پنجم توسعه، حمایت از کشاورزان همه خوشه ها، به‏ ترتیب، با میانگین 882، 1549 و 1200 ریال در هر کیلوگرم تحقق یافته و برخلاف شاخص BP، شاخص های MPS و PSE در بیشتر استان ها رابطه مثبت و معنی دار با عملکرد گندم آبی داشته است. در نهایت، پیشنهاد شد که با مد نظر قرار دادن تفاوت های خوشه ها، برای خوشه های با بهره وری بالاتر، بسته های سیاستی قیمتی و بودجه ای متنوع با سطح پوشش حمایتی بالاتر و متناسب با الگوی بهینه مصرف نهاده های کشاورزان منتخب طرح ریزی شود. همچنین، شایسته است که با تغییر الگوی سیاست ها از حمایت قیمتی به حمایت های بودجه ای، از یک‏سو، حفظ قیمت محصولات نزدیک به قیمت جهانی و از سوی دیگر، جلوگیری از دخالت مستقیم دولت در بازار محصول گندم در دستور کار سیاست‏گذاران قرار گیرد.
    کلیدواژگان: الگوریتم خوشه بندی، کی‏ میانگین، برآورد حمایت از تولید کننده، حمایت قیمت بازاری، خرید تضمینی، گندم
  • فرحناز کریمی نژاد*، غلامرضا یاوری، مهدی کاظم نژاد صفحات 31-58
    بازار آتی پررونق و کارآی محصولات کشاورزی می تواند به روند توسعه در این بخش کمک کند. در واقع، افزایش کارآیی بازار محصولات کشاورزی، کاهش حاشیه های بازاریابی و بهبود شبکه انبارداری، بسته بندی و توزیع محصولات، به ‏همراه توسعه سرمایه گذاری در بخش کشاورزی، مجموعه عواملی هستند که می توانند روند رشد و توسعه بخش کشاورزی را سرعت بخشند. تحقیق حاضر با هدف شناسایی استانداردهای لازم و رتبه بندی محصولات کشاورزی برای معامله در بازارهای آتی انجام گرفت. بدین منظور، به بررسی دوازده محصول کشاورزی پذیرفته ‏نشده در بورس کالا و بازارهای آتی پرداخته شد. در تحقیق ترکیبی (کیفی- کمی) حاضر، برای دستیابی به هدف یادشده، نخست، با بهره گیری از روش داده ‏بنیاد و انجام مصاحبه با خبرگان، استانداردهای لازم برای پذیرفته شدن محصولات کشاورزی در بازار آتی شناسایی شد؛ سپس، محاسبه کمی استانداردها و سرانجام، برآورد رگرسیون و رتبه بندی محصولات برای ورود به بازار آتی صورت گرفت. داده های پژوهش شامل اطلاعات سال های 96-1387 بود که از بانک های اطلاعاتی بورس کالای کشاورزی، وزرات جهاد کشاورزی، گمرک جمهوری اسلامی ایران و مرکز آمار ایران استخراج شد. در نهایت، نتایج حاصل از دسته بندی و گروه بندی استانداردها برای پذیرش در بازارهای آتی بر اساس عوامل مخاطره (ریسک) درآمدی محصولات، اندازه بازار نقدی، هزینه سیالیت، درجه همگنی، درجه تجاری بودن و فسادپذیری به‏ دست آمد. همچنین، محصولات مورد بررسی بر اساس ارزش مبادلات آتی، به ‏ترتیب اولویت، عبارت بودند از ذرت علوفه ای، پسته، خرما، کشمش، کلزا ، ذرت دانه ای، نخود، سویا، عدس، گندم، چای و جو. بنابراین، بر اساس الگوی برآوردی، محصولات ذرت علوفه ای، پسته، خرما و کشمش، به ‏ترتیب، دارای بیشترین ارزش برای معاملات آتی شناخته شدند. در نتیجه، محصولاتی که ارزش معاملات آتی بیشتری دارند، در معاملات آتی می توانند موفق تر عمل کنند. از این رو، پیشنهاد می شود که سیاست گذاران بخش کشاورزی در ایجاد بازار آتی محصولات کشاورزی عوامل شش ‏گانه پیش ‏گفته را مد نظر قرار دهند.
    کلیدواژگان: بازار آتی، محصولات کشاورزی، شناسایی استانداردها، رگرسیون پنل، تئوری داده بنیاد
  • مهدی شعبان زاده خوشرودی*، ابراهیم جاودان، محسن رفعتی صفحات 59-88
    نرخ ارز، با توجه به تاثیرات آن بر قیمت تمام ‏شده کالاهای وارداتی، یکی از مهم ترین عوامل تاثیرگذار بر مصرف مواد غذایی به‏ شمار می‏ رود، به‏ گونه ‏ای که نوسان ‏های نرخ ارز و به تبع آن، نوسان‏ های قیمت مواد غذایی، با اثرگذاری بر بعد دسترسی به غذا، امکان تحقق امنیت غذایی را با چالش های جدی مواجه می سازد. با این رویکرد، در مطالعه حاضر، به بررسی تاثیر نوسان‏ های نرخ ارز بازار آزاد بر مصرف مواد غذایی در مناطق روستایی ایران پرداخته شد؛ همچنین، برای بررسی میزان اثربخشی سیاست های سال‎ های اخیر دولت در راستای مهار نوسان های ارزی، تاثیر سیاست یارانه ارز ترجیحی بر مصرف در مناطق روستایی نیز تحلیل شد، چراکه دستیابی بدین اهداف زمینه‏ ساز شناخت لازم برای تصحیح سیاست های جاری و یا اتخاذ سیاست های جدید ارزی است. بدین منظور، ابتدا با به کارگیری مبانی نظری و مطالعات مختلف، مدل نظری تحقیق تبیین شد و سپس، اطلاعات مورد نیاز طی دوره زمانی 1400-1384 جمع آوری و در قالب مدل پانل خودتوزیعی (خودتوضیح) با وقفه ‏های گسترده (ARDL) تحلیل شدند. نتایج نشان داد که افزایش نوسان های نرخ ارز، مصرف خانوارها را در مناطق روستایی در کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت کاهش می دهد؛ همچنین، سیاست یارانه ارز ترجیحی، اگرچه بر مصرف خانوار اثر مثبت و معنی دار داشته، اما این تاثیر قابل توجه نبوده است. از سوی دیگر، بر اساس نتایج پژوهش، طی دوره کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت، اثر شاخص قیمت گروه های غذایی بر مصرف مواد غذایی در مناطق روستایی ایران منفی و در مقابل، اثر افزایش درآمد خانوارها بر مصرف مواد غذایی در مناطق روستایی مثبت و معنی دار بود. در نهایت نیز جزء تصحیح خطا نشان داد که به‏ دلیل سرعت پایین تعدیل، تاثیر شوک ها یا همان تکانه‏ های ارزی بر قیمت مواد غذایی در اقتصاد ایران بسیار ماندگار است (نزدیک به دو سال). با توجه به نتایج به‏ دست ‏آمده، با اجرای سیاست ارز ترجیحی، امکان دستیابی به هدف ثبات مصرف مواد غذایی فراهم نمی شود؛ از این‏ رو، حذف آن و استفاده از سیاست های ارزی شناور مدیریت ‏شده ضروری می‏ نماید. با حذف سیاست یادشده برای حمایت از امنیت غذایی اقشار ضعیف جامعه در کوتاه مدت، می توان به توزیع بسته های غذایی از طریق دستگاه های متولی از جمله کمیته امداد و سازمان بهزیستی روی آورد؛ سیاست پرداخت نقدی- کالایی نیز یکی از سیاست هایی است که در دوره کوتاه مدت، امکان توزیع مناسب تر یارانه ها را فراهم می‏ سازد. با این همه، در دوره بلندمدت، افزایش و یا ثبات قدرت خرید مردم به ‏ویژه اقشار کم‏ درآمد و ضعیف تنها از طریق اجرای سیاست های ایجاد اشتغال، تقویت تولید و عرضه امکان پذیر خواهد بود.
    کلیدواژگان: نوسان‏ های نرخ ارز، سیاست یارانه ارز ترجیحی، مناطق روستایی، مصرف مواد غذایی، الگوی پانل خودتوضیح با وقفه ‏های گسترده (ARDL)
  • شبنم کراری قره باغ، حامد نجفی علمدارلو*، صادق خلیلیان، مجید دلاور صفحات 89-130
    سطح آبخوان ها، در نتیجه کاهش سطح آب دریاچه ارومیه، کاهش یافته و از سوی دیگر، نفوذ آب شور و نفوذ املاح مازاد به‏ ویژه نیترات ناشی از مصرف کودهای شیمیایی موجب کاهش کیفیت آب های زیرزمینی در دشت ارومیه شده است. در مطالعه حاضر، با هدف بررسی زراعی- اقتصادی تغییرات کمی و کیفی آب آبیاری، به شبیه ‏سازی عملکرد محصولات گندم آبی، ذرت علوفه ای، آفتابگردان و گوجه فرنگی با استفاده از مدل آکواکراپ (AquaCrop) در سال زراعی 1401-1400 پرداخته و سپس، گزینه های کم آبیاری، کاهش کوددهی و افزایش شوری آب زیرزمینی در تمامی مراحل رشد محصولات اعمال شد؛ همچنین، از چهار گروه داد ه های اقلیمی، گیاهی، خاک ‏شناسی و مدیریتی برای انجام شبیه سازی استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که کاهش کوددهی بیشترین درصد تغییرات و افزایش شوری آب‏های آبیاری و زیرزمینی کمترین درصد تاثیر را روی عملکرد محصولات دارند. از آنجا که کاهش عملکرد محصولات با اثرات اقتصادی نیز همراه است، این اثرات با محاسبه شاخص های بهره وری فیزیکی و اقتصادی آب و کود نیتروژن بررسی شدند که از آن میان، شاخص بهره وری اقتصادی آب و کود انتخاب شد و بر اساس آن، مقادیر حداکثر شاخص بهره وری اقتصادی آب (بر حسب ریال بر مترمکعب) و شاخص بهره وری اقتصادی کود (بر حسب ریال بر کیلوگرم)، به ترتیب، برای گوجه فرنگی 209580 و 3005000 ریال و آفتابگردان 177630 و 2115720 ریال در منطقه پنج و ذرت علوفه ای 94900 و 1323500 ریال و گندم آبی 56620 و 454570 ریال در مناطق سه و شش بود. با توجه به تاثیر زیاد گزینه کاهش کوددهی و شاخص بهره وری اقتصادی کود، باید امکان جایگزینی کودهای ارگانیک با کودهای نیتراته از نظر فنی و اقتصادی بررسی و قیمت بالا برای مصارف بیش از مقدار توصیه ‏شده کودهای نیتراته تعیین شود. این سیاست ها برای کاهش شوری نیز موثرند، زیرا منبع اصلی شوری آب زیرزمینی کوددهی بی رویه است. همچنین، پیشنهاد می شود که فناوری های مناسب آبیاری به کشاورزان شناسانده و الگوی کشت صحیح در منطقه ارایه شود. در نهایت، باید اقدامات سخت گیرانه مدیریتی صورت گیرد تا هم‏زمان، از اثرات مخرب کوددهی زیاد و برداشت بی رویه آب‏های سطحی و زیرزمینی جلوگیری شود.
    کلیدواژگان: آلودگی نیترات، بهره وری، شوری، کم آبیاری، مدل آکواکراپ (AquaCrop)
  • مریم محمودی*، هرمز اسدی، رضا رحیم زاده، حمید نوشاد، غلامرضا راستجو، الهام رضایی، حسن علیپور، مهرزاد الله قلی پور، فرهاد خیری صنمی صفحات 131-165

    تجاری‏ سازی دانش و فناوری، به ‏عنوان حلقه اتصال تحقیقات و بازار، تلاشی به‏ منظور کسب درآمد از نوآوری است که در حال حاضر، در اقتصاد دانش ‏بنیان به‏ شدت مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر شناسایی چالش های تجاری‏ سازی دستاوردهای تحقیقاتی کشاورزی در حوزه علوم زراعی و همچنین، راهکارهای تسهیل و تسریع تجاری‏ سازی آنها بود. جامعه آماری مطالعه را کلیه اعضای هییت علمی موسسات تحقیقات مرتبط با علوم زراعی در مجموعه سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی (تات) (263=N) و مدیران عامل شرکت های طرف قرارداد با این موسسات (91=N) تشکیل دادند. مطالعه توصیفی- همبستگی حاضر با روش پیمایش در سال 1400 انجام شد. ابزار جمع آوری اطلاعات پرسشنامه بود و تحلیل داده های جمع آوری ‏شده با استفاده از فن تحلیل عاملی اکتشافی به روش تحلیل مولفه های اصلی صورت گرفت و مهم ‏ترین چالش ها و همچنین، راهکارهای تسهیل تجاری‏ سازی دانش و فناوری مورد نظر در بخش کشاورزی شناسایی، طبقه بندی و اولویت بندی شد. چالش های موجود در مسیر توسعه تجاری‏ سازی دستاوردهای تحقیقاتی سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی (تات) از دیدگاه محققان و اعضای هییت علمی موسسات مورد مطالعه در هفت عامل بدین شرح شناسایی و دسته‏ بندی شدند: «ماهیت فناوری ه»، «ضعف در قوانین، مقررات و سیاست های حمایتی دولت»، «ساختار ضعیف اطلاع رسانی و تعامل با  بخش خصوصی»، «ضعف در خط مشی، مدیریت و نیروی انسانی موسسات و مراکز»، «ضعف نظام آموزشی»، «خط مشی ضعیف سازمان تات در حوزه تجاری‏ سازی» و «عدم احساس نیاز به تجاری‏ سازی». از دیدگاه مدیران عامل شرکت های مورد بررسی، شش عامل «ضعف در قوانین، مقررات و سیاست های حمایتی دولت»، «ساختار ضعیف اطلاع رسانی و تعامل با  بخش خصوصی»، «ماهیت فناوری ها»، «محدودیت فعالیت شرکت های بین‏ المللی در ایران»، «ضعف در توانمندی شرکت های خصوصی» و «خط مشی ضعیف سازمان تات در حوزه تجاری‏ سازی» به ‏عنوان چالش های توسعه تجاری ‏سازی دستاوردهای تحقیقاتی شناسایی شدند. راهکارهای تسهیل تجاری‏ سازی دستاوردهای تحقیقاتی مورد بررسی، از دیدگاه محققان، در شش عامل «تقویت نظام اطلاع ‏رسانی و افزایش تعامل با بازار و بخش خصوصی»، «تقویت قابلیت تجاری شدن فناوری ها»، «تقویت حمایت های دولتی از تجاری‏ سازی»، «توسعه نیروی انسانی و ساختار سازمانی در موسسات»، «حمایت از بخش خصوصی در راستای افزایش سرمایه ‏گذاری» و «بازنگری در خط مشی های سازمان تات» و همچنین، از دیدگاه مدیران عامل، در چهار عامل «تقویت حمایت های دولتی از تجاری‏ سازی»، «تقویت نظام اطلاع رسانی و افزایش تعامل با بازار و بخش خصوصی»، «تقویت قابلیت تجاری شدن فناوری ها» و «مشارکت در توانمندسازی شرکت های خصوصی» استخراج و طبقه بندی شدند. در ادامه، بر اساس چالش های شناسایی‏ شده، راهکارهایی پیشنهاد شد و مورد بحث و بررسی قرار گرفت.

    کلیدواژگان: تجاری ‏سازی، فناوری، دانش فنی، دستاوردهای تحقیقاتی
  • سپیده رواسی زاده، وحیده انصاری*، حبیب الله سلامی، غلامرضا پیکانی صفحات 167-198

    در دشت ممنوعه بحرانی ورامین، بیش از هشتاد درصد از منابع آب زیرزمینی به مصارف بخش کشاورزی می رسد و اغلب کشاورزان از آبیاری سنتی استفاده می کنند. از نظر کارشناسان، یکی از علل راندمان پایین آبیاری و اتلاف منابع آب در این بخش پایین بودن قیمت نهاده آب نسبت به سایر نهاده هاست. هدف مطالعه حاضر تحلیل تاثیر افزایش قیمت آب بر واکنش کشاورزان و الگوی کشت محصولات دشت ورامین بود. بدین منظور، ابتدا ارزش اقتصادی نهاده آب از دو طریق ارزش پسماند و قیمت سایه ای محاسبه شد و سپس، با استفاده از برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP)، تحلیل کشش تقاضای آب و تاثیر تغییر قیمت آب بر الگوی کشت صورت گرفت. داده‏ های پژوهش از طریق تکمیل پرسشنامه در سال زراعی 1400-1399 جمع آوری شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که ارزش اقتصادی نهاده آب بین هفت تا ده برابر قیمت دریافتی از کشاورزان است؛ همچنین، در قیمت های پایین نهاده آب، کشش تقاضا برای این نهاده صفر است و در قیمت ‏های‏ بالا، اعمال سیاست افزایش قیمت آب منجر به کاهش سود کشاورزان شده و ممکن است از انگیزه آنها برای تولید بکاهد. از این‏ رو، اعمال یکباره این سیاست می تواند منجر به واکنش های منفی از جمله تنش های اجتماعی شود. از این‏ رو، توصیه می شود که تعدیل و افزایش قیمت نهاده آب به ‏صورت تدریجی در بلندمدت صورت گیرد تا مصرف این نهاده اصلاح شود و الگوی کشت به سمت محصولاتی سوق یابد که آب کمتری مصرف می کنند.

    کلیدواژگان: الگوی کشت، برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP)، تقاضای آب کشاورزی، قیمت آب کشاورزی، ورامین (دشت)
  • احمد سام دلیری* صفحات 199-225

    اعمال سیاست ‏های عمومی موثر اغلب مستلزم آگاهی از ارزش ‏هایی است که افراد جامعه برای کالا‏های غیربازاری قایل اند. نیاز به اطلاع از ارزش‏ های غیربازاری منجر به توسعه روش های متنوع ارزش ‏گذاری شده و در این میان، روش ارزش ‏گذاری مشروط (CV) از متداول ترین روش هاست. با این همه، این روش ها مستعد وجود مشکلات متعددند، مشکلاتی که نتایج مطالعات را با ارزش های واقعی منابع متفاوت خواهد کرد. هدف مطالعه حاضر بازتعریف مفهوم کاربردی ضرایب برآوردشده در الگو‏های با متغیر وابسته گسسته و آشکارسازی امکان انجام تفسیر اقتصادی ضرایب در قالب شاخص ‏های مربوط و نیز اندازه گیری اثرات نهایی عوامل در سطوح مختلف متغیر‏های مستقل است. بدین منظور، بررسی ارزش تفریحی دریاچه آویدر در شهرستان نوشهر در سال 1399، با روش ارزش ‏گذاری مشروط و براورد تابع لاجیت، صورت گرفت و عوامل موثر بر تمایل به پرداخت افراد در قالب شاخص ‏های نسبت شانس، نسبت ریسک و اثرات نهایی اندازه گیری و ارایه شد. نتایج نشان دهنده تفاوت هایی جزیی در محاسبات مربوط به «اثر نهایی در سطح متوسط متغیرها» (MEMS) و «متوسط اثرات نهایی متغیر‏های مستقل» (AMES) بود. از این‏ رو، پیشنهاد می شود که به ‏منظور اطلاع دقیق از نتایج اعمال سیاست ها در سطوح مختلف متغیرها، مطالعات حوزه ارزش‏ گذاری منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست با تاکید بر محاسبه شاخص های اثر نهایی با جزییات طرح ‏شده در مطالعه حاضر نیز صورت گیرد. از سوی دیگر، نتایج محاسبات «اثر نهایی در مقادیر مشخص از متغیر مستقل» (MERS) نشان داد که تغییرات مقادیر اثر نهایی در سطوح مختلف مقادیر متغیرها روی می ‏دهد. همچنین، متوسط تمایل به پرداخت استفاده کنندگان برای هر بازدید تفریحی از دریاچه آویدر برابر با 33490 تومان محاسبه شد. این مقدار معیاری از ظرفیت ارزش اقتصادی دریاچه آویدر در بخش ایجاد ارزش های تفرجی بوده و نشان‏ دهنده آگاهی کامل بازدیدکنندگان از اهمیت و ضرورت مناطق تفریحی آبی است.

    کلیدواژگان: تفسیرپذیری ضرایب، ارزش‏ گذاری مشروط، مدل لاجیت، دریاچه آویدر، نوشهر (شهرستان)
  • فاطمه عسکری بزایه*، نور محمد آبیار، محمدرضا عباسی مژدهی صفحات 227-255

    سرمایه گذاری در تحقیقات کشاورزی یکی از عوامل اصلی افزایش بهره وری کشاورزی است که اثرات چشمگیر بر رشد اقتصادی، کاهش فقر و امنیت غذایی دارد. در پژوهش حاضر، بازده اقتصادی فعالیت های پژوهشی خاتمه‏ یافته سال های 1387 تا 1391 در مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان گیلان با استفاده از رهیافت تحلیل مازاد اقتصادی بررسی شد. این رهیافت از چارچوب بازار استفاده می‏ کند که در آن، کاربرد دستاورد تحقیقات باعث جابه جایی منحنی عرضه می شود. بر پایه یافته های پژوهش، نرخ بازده داخلی فعالیت های پژوهشی مرکز گیلان، به طور میانگین، بیش از 49 درصد بوده است که در محدوده عمده بازده های گزارش شده تحقیقات مورد بررسی (بیست تا شصت درصد) قرار می گیرد. میانگین نسبت فایده به هزینه فعالیت های پژوهشی مورد بررسی مرکز گیلان به میزان 7/6 و کمینه و بیشینه آن، به‏ ترتیب، صفر و 52 ریال بوده، که این نسبت به دست آمده بسیار کمتر از رقم گزارش شده جهانی مبنی بر 32 دلار است. ارزش کنونی خالص فواید فعالیت های پژوهشی مورد بررسی در مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی استان گیلان در دوره پذیرش یافته های آنها بیش از 853611025002 ریال به دست آمده و به طورکلی، فعالیت های پژوهشی این مرکز دارای بازده اقتصادی و اثربخشی بوده است؛ اما در مقایسه با میانگین آنها در گستره جهانی، بسیار کم ارزیابی می شود. توانمندسازی علمی و اعتباری نهاد ترویج در بخش کشاورزی و اولویت گذاری فعالیت های پژوهشی از جمله پیشنهاد هایی است که می تواند در افزایش بازده اقتصادی و اثربخشی فعالیت های پژوهشی و نیز در افزایش تولیدات کشاورزی و رفاه ذی‏نفعان تحقیقات موثر باشد، چراکه رسالت نهاد ترویج کشاورزی نشر و  انتقال دستاوردهای پژوهشی به عرصه های تولید و بهره برداران است.

    کلیدواژگان: ارزیابی آثار اقتصادی، تحلیل مازاد اقتصادی، نسبت فایده به هزینه، نرخ بازده داخلی، گیلان (استان)
  • مهدیه ساعی*، حسن اسدپور صفحات 257-291
    در مطالعه حاضر، الگوی مطلوب زنجیره ارزش مرکبات جنوب کرمان با توجه به مولفه های اقتصادی، اجتماعی- فرهنگی، زیست محیطی و ساختاری مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برای تهیه اطلاعات مورد نیاز، از روش تکمیل پرسشنامه از طریق برگزاری جلسات توجیهی به صورت مشارکتی برای خبرگان، متخصصان و کارشناسان مرتبط با تولید و تجارت صنعت مرکبات منطقه (25 نفر) استفاده شد. به منظور تجزیه‏ وتحلیل داده ها، محاسبه وزن معیارها و دستیابی به بهترین مدل زنجیره ارزش مرکبات، از روش فرآیند تحلیل سلسله‏ مراتبی (AHP) بهره گرفته شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که بر اساس مجموع چهار معیار اصلی و 21 زیرمعیار مورد مطالعه، از بین مدل های چهارگانه کسب‏ وکار در زنجیره ارزش، مدل «بازارساز» به عنوان بهترین مدل با بیشترین وزن نسبی (427/0) حایز رتبه اول و مدل «لایه ای» به عنوان کم اهمیت ترین مدل با وزن نسبی 09/0 حایز رتبه چهارم شناخته شد؛ افزون بر این، مدل های «یکپارچه» و «ارکستر»، به ترتیب، با وزن های نسبی 277/0 و 196/0 در رتبه های دوم و سوم اهمیت قرار گرفتند. معیارهای یادشده با نرخ ناسازگاری 04/0 برآورد شد که قابل اعتماد بودن قضاوت های نخبگان را به اثبات می رساند. همچنین، معیار اقتصادی، به عنوان مهم‏ترین معیار با وزن 361/0 در انتخاب بهترین مدل زنجیره ارزش مرکبات، نقش اصلی را ایفا کرده و رتبه اول را به خود اختصاص داده است؛ معیارهای زیست محیطی، ساختاری و فرهنگی نیز به ترتیب، با وزن های 333/0، 214/0 و 092/0، در رتبه های دوم تا چهارم اهمیت قرار گرفتند. از این رو، مدل «بازارساز» می تواند به عنوان بهترین و اولین اولویت مدل توسعه زنجیره ارزش مرکبات جنوب کرمان مورد تاکید برنامه ریزان و سیاست گذاران قرار گیرد. سرانجام، پیشنهاد می شود که تصمیم گیران و برنامه ریزان کشور، از طریق اعمال سیاست های تشویقی و حمایتی در یک دوره کوتاه مدت، اقدام به جذب سرمایه گذاری داخلی و خارجی کنند تا صنعت مرکبات کشور هرچه سریع‏تر، متناسب با تولید مرکبات کشور، رشد و توسعه یابد.
    کلیدواژگان: : مرکبات، فرآیند تحلیل سلسله ‏مراتبی (AHP)، منطقه جنوب کرمان (استان)، مدل های زنجیره ارزش
  • مهدی صوفی زاده، فتانه یاراحمدی*، سیده معصومه حسینی فرد صفحات 293-314
    با توجه به وابستگی شدید جوامع روستایی ایران به درآمدهای حاصل از فروش محصولات کشاورزی، بررسی موانع پیش روی فروش این محصولات از سوی کشاورزان ضروری به‏ شمار می‏ رود. از این ‏رو، در پژوهش حاضر، به شناسایی و اولویت ‏بندی موانع موثر بر بازاریابی محصولات کشاورزی به ‏عنوان یکی از عوامل مهم در فروش کالا پرداخته شد. پژوهش حاضر از نوع کاربردی بوده و برای شناسایی و اولویت‏ بندی شاخص ‏ها، از روش تحلیلی- توصیفی بهره گرفت. داده ‏ها و اطلاعات پژوهش به دو صورت اسنادی از منابع کتابخانه ‏ای و مصاحبه با صاحب‏نظران و کارشناسان حوزه تولید، بازاریابی و فروش محصولات کشاورزی استان لرستان و تکمیل پرسشنامه توسط آنها گردآوری شد؛ و در ادامه، برای تحلیل داده‏ ها، از روش فرآیند تحلیل سلسله‏ مراتبی فازی (FAHP) بهبودیافته استفاده شد. پس از تحلیل داده ها، نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که در بعد ساختار و عوامل محیطی، عامل عدم دسترسی به حمل‏ ونقل مناسب و در بعد مالی، عامل فقدان سرمایه کافی برای بازاریابی و نیز در بعد فرهنگی، عامل عدم اعتماد به نفس کشاورزان از بالاترین اولویت برخوردارند؛ همچنین، با توجه به اینکه نرخ ناسازگاری در تمام مراحل تحلیل داده های پژوهش زیر 1/0 بوده، نتایج تحقیق قابل اعتماد است. در پایان، با بررسی نتایج پژوهش حاضر، پیشنهاد می‏ شود که با توسعه زیرساخت های ارتباطی روستاها و شبکه های حمل‏ ونقل روستایی، اعطای تسهیلات بانکی کم ‏بهره و برگزاری دوره‏ های آموزشی خودباوری برای کشاورزان، از شدت تاثیر منفی عوامل موثر بر بازاریابی محصولات کشاورزی کاسته شود، زیرا کاهش شدت تاثیر این عوامل موجب بالا رفتن درآمد خانوارهای روستایی و پایداری و ثبات ساختار روستاها خواهد شد.
    کلیدواژگان: بازاریابی، محصولات کشاورزی، فرآیند تحلیل سلسله ‏مراتبی فازی (FAHP)
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  • Elham Mehrparvar Hosseini, Hamed Rafiee *, Narges Shahnabati, Mahdis Arefpour Pages 1-30
    Introduction
    The support policies implemented by the government for wheat crop, which is a strategic crop in Iran's agricultural sector and has different distributional effects in the provinces of the country, are of great importance.
    Materials and Methods
    In this study, while calculating the indicators of market price support (MPS), budget payments (BP) and producer support estimate (PSE) of wheat in the period of the Third to Fifth Economic, Social and Cultural Development Programs of Iran, their correlations with yield per unit area of dryland and irrigated wheat production were investigated and then, for planning and policy making, the provinces were classified into homogeneous clusters by K-means algorithm.
    Results and Discussion
    According to the results, despite the implementation of the same policies across the country, the amount of market and budget support and total support to producers varies due to differences in climate and producers' behavior in input consumption, production technology, productivity, comparative advantages and distance from customs, so that wheat farmers in lower productivity provinces received more support per kg. Also, pricing policies did not supported producers in most years, but the PSE index showed that farmers of all clusters were supported in the three development programs by 882, 1549 and 1200 IR rials/kg, respectively. Contrary to BP, MPS and PSE indicators in most provinces had positive and significant relationships with irrigated wheat yields.
    Conclusions
    Finally, considering the differences in clusters, it was suggested that for higher productivity clusters, various pricing and budget policy packages with higher support coverage levels should be designed in accordance with the optimal consumption pattern of top farmers' inputs; in addition, by changing the pattern of policies from price support to budget support, on the one hand, the price of products will be kept close to the global price and on the other hand, the direct intervention of the government in the product market will be avoided.
    Keywords: Guaranteed Purchase, K-means Clustering Algorithm, Market Price Support, Producer Support Estimation, Wheat
  • Farahnaz Kariminejad *, Gholamreza Yavari, Mahdi Kazemnejad Pages 31-58
    Introduction
    The thriving and efficient future market for agricultural products can contribute to the development process in this sector. In fact, increasing the efficiency of the agricultural market, reducing marketing margins and improving the warehousing network, packaging and distributing products, along with the development of investment in the agricultural sector, are a set of factors that can accelerate the growth and development of the agricultural sector. Obviously, the benefits will be obtained if there is an instant, enormous and active market, and the first condition for the success of a future agricultural market is the existence of suitable and consistent future contracts and agricultural economy in Iran. So, the questions to be answered in this study included: Which agricultural products are able to launch a futures market? What are the order and priorities of these products to enter the futures market?
    Materials and Methods
    This research was conducted with a mixed approach including a qualitative-quantitative method. Therefore, the data were analyzed in two phases: the first phase used a qualitative method for identifying the necessary standards of different products to enter the future market, and the second phase used a quantitative method to measure the identified standards by calculating the identified indicators; and finally, the regression model was estimated to calculate the future value. The identification of standards (phase 1) was based on the qualitative methodology of the grounded theory; and using the six standards identified in the previous phase, the standards and the value of future transactions for different products were calculated (phase 2). The required data were collected for the period 2008-2017, including the necessary variables to proxy the value of future transactions and the volume and price of transactions from the Agricultural Commodity Exchange (ACE), the price of agricultural products and the yields of products from the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ), the amount of export and import from the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA), the total cost from the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI), and the level of homogeneity from the opinions of experts and the comments received from the concerned professionals.
    Results and Discussion
    This study aimed at identifying the necessary standards and ranking of agricultural products for trading in future markets. For this purpose, 12 agricultural products that were not accepted in the commodity exchange and future markets were examined. Firstly, using the grounded theory through interviews with experts, the necessary standards for the acceptance of agricultural products in the future market were identified. Then, a quantitative calculation of standards and finally, an estimation of regression and ranking of products to enter the future market were determined. Using interview coding and research background, the necessary standards for acceptance in the future markets were found as follows: income risk of products, cash market size, liquidity cost, degree of homogeneity, degree of commerciality and perishability. Also, the examined products based on the value of future exchanges, in order of priority, included fodder corn, pistachios, dates, raisins, canola, grain corn, peas, soybeans, lentils, wheat, tea, and barley. The fodder corn, pistachios, dates and raisins products were the first products obtained the highest values, respectively, for futures trading, based on the estimated model and obviously, the products with more value for futures trading might be more successful in futures trading. Therefore, it is suggested that the policy makers of the agricultural sector consider the six mentioned factors in creating the future market of agricultural products.
    Conclusions
    It is necessary for policymakers of the agricultural sector to consider that soybeans, rapeseed, chickpeas, seed corn and fodder are the most homogeneous and barley, pistachio and tea products are the most heterogeneous products among all exchangeable goods in the future markets of selected agricultural products. Therefore, it is expected that more homogeneous products will have a higher level of prosperity and success due to the high standardization and grading capabilities that are essential for exchangeable products in the future markets.
    Keywords: Futures Market, Agricultural Products, Standard Identification, Panel regression, Grounded Theory
  • Mehdi Shabanzadeh-Khoshrody *, Ebrahim Javdan, Mohsen Rafaati Pages 59-88
    Introduction
    Exchange rate is a variable that can affect the performance of economy and economic variables. By any change in the exchange rate, food prices and consequently, food consumption is affected. The exchange rate is one of the most important factors affecting the food consumption due to its effects on the price of imported goods. Fluctuations in the exchange rates and consequently, food price fluctuations, by affecting the access dimension, make it impossible to realize food security. With this approach, in the present study, the effects of fluctuations in free market exchange rates on the food consumption in rural areas of Iran were examined. In addition, in order to examine the effectiveness of government policies to control currency fluctuations over recent years, the effect of preferential currency subsidy policy on consumption in the rural areas was analyzed. Achieving these goals provides the necessary knowledge to modify current policies or adopt new currency policies.
    Materials and Methods
    Theoretical model of the research was first explained by applying theoretical foundations and various studies. Then, the information needed to conduct the study was collected during the period of 2005-2021. Next, the stationary of the model variables was examined through Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC) and Fisher-Dickey Fuller (Fisher-ADF) tests. Finally, the short and long term relationship between variables analyzed in the formwork of ARDL panel model. 
    Results and Discussion
    The results showed that the increase in exchange rate fluctuations reduced household consumption in rural areas in the short and long terms; in addition, although the preferential currency subsidy policy had a positive and significant effect on the household consumption, this effect was not noticeable. On the other hand, based on the results, the price index of food groups had a negative effect on the food consumption in the rural areas of Iran in the short and long terms and by contrast, the increase in household income had a positive and significant effect on the food consumption in the rural areas in the short and long terms. Finally, the results of the Error Correction Model (ECM) showed that due to the low speed of adjustment, currency shocks had a long lasting effect (nearly two years) on food prices in Iran's economy.
    Conclusions
    According to the study results, the preferential currency policy does not provide the possibility of achieving the goal of food consumption stability; therefore, it is necessary to remove it and use managed floating currency policies. With the removal of the mentioned policy in order to support the food security of the weak classes of the society in the short term, the distribution of food packages through trustee institutions including the relief foundation and the welfare organization can be considered. The cash-in-kind payment policy is also one of the policies that can provide more appropriate distribution of subsidies in the short term. However, in the long term, increasing or stabilizing the purchasing power of people, especially the low-income and weak classes, is only possible through employment creation policies as well as strengthening production and supply.
    Keywords: exchange rate fluctuations, preferential currency subsidy policy, rural areas, food consumption, ARDL panel model
  • Shabnam Karari, Hamed Najafi Alamdarlo *, Sadegh Khalilian, Majid Delavar Pages 89-130
    Introduction
    The level of aquifers has decreased as a result of the decrease in the water level of Urmia Lake in Iran. In addition, the infiltration of both salt water and excess salts, especially nitrates, caused by the use of chemical fertilizers have reduced the quality of groundwater in Urmia plain. Saline waste water, return water, agricultural activities, evaporation and infiltration of sea water are among the salinity factors of water resources. On the other hand, in modern agriculture, the yield and productivity of the product is improved by the use of chemical fertilizers. For this reason, agriculture is known as the most important source of non-point pollution of groundwater nitrates caused by human activities. The nitrate range of plain varies from 0 to 115 mg/l. Also, the level of EC varies from 0.3 to 2.9 ds/m. Both ranges are in warning points, which should be prevented from increasing excessively by adopting management measures. This study mainly aimed at investigating quantitative and qualitative changes of irrigation water in agro-economic terms.
    Materials and Methods
    The present study was conducted in Urmia plain located in Urmia city of Iran. The area of the plain is 962 km2 and is located on the western side of the lake. The yields of irrigated wheat, forage corn, sunflower and tomato were simulated using the AquaCrop model in the cropping year of 2022-2023; then, the options of reduced irrigation, reduced fertilization and increased groundwater salinity were applied in all stages of crop growth. Also, four groups of climatic, crop, soil and management data were used for the simulation. In proportion to the fact that decreasing crop yield has economic effects, the effects were investigated by calculating water and nitrogen fertilizer physical and economic productivity indexes. Both consumption amount of each input per hectare and the purchase cost of each input were obtained through the interviews with 140 farmers using random classification sampling method. By adding all the costs, the cost of each product was calculated and the farmers' income was obtained according to the yield and price of the products. Then, changes in costs were examined by changing the amount of irrigation and fertilization. Changes in income were also calculated by applying each option, and net profit was obtained by changing the costs and revenues. By carrying out yield simulation and applying options, the impacts of yield reduction on farmers' productivity and profit were calculated and accordingly, the potential areas for growing each crop in each region were determined.
    Results and Discussion
    Decreased fertilization demonstrated the utmost effect and increased salinity of irrigation water and groundwater revealed the least effect on the yield of crops. Among the two indexes, the economic productivity index of water IRI rials/m3 and fertilizer IRI rials/kg was chosen, based on which tomato (209580, 3005000) and sunflower (177630, 2115720) in region 5, forage corn (94900, 1323500) and irrigated wheat (5620, 454570) in regions 3 and 6 had the highest rate, respectively. Furthermore, the rate of fertilizer economic productivity index was higher than water productivity. After calculating these indicators, the value of the water and fertilizer economic productivity index was recalculated after applying the options and the changes were analyzed. With the reduction of irrigation, the water economic efficiency index for some crops decreased in some areas and increased in some other areas, but with the decrease in fertilization, the economic efficiency of fertilizer decreased in all areas and all crops. In both options, tomato and wheat had the highest and lowest amount, respectively. 
    Conclusions
    Considering the obtained results and the quantitative and qualitative effects of water reduction in the region, it is necessary to reduce the effects of excessive use of chemical fertilizers before reaching a critical stage. In addition, reducing the excessive use of surface and underground water is vital. If the current trend continues, the cultivation pattern and the type of land use should be changed according to the conditions, or additional costs may be imposed on the farmers to eliminate the effects of excessive consumption, and all these cases require proper management of water resources to maintain their quantity and quality. Given the high impacts of the fertilizer reduction option and the economic productivity index of fertilizer, the possibility of replacing organic fertilizers with nitrate ones should be technically and economically investigated and the high price for using more than the recommended amount of nitrate fertilizers should be determined. These policies are also effective for reducing salinity because the main source of groundwater salinity is excessive fertilization. It is also suggested that appropriate irrigation technologies are introduced to the farmers and the correct cultivation patterns are presented in each region of the whole area. Finally, strict management actions should be taken to moderate the destructive effects of excessive fertilization and to reduce the over-exploitation of surface and groundwater.
    Keywords: AquaCrop Model, Deficit Irrigation, Nitrate pollution, Productivity, Salinity
  • Maryam Mahmoodi *, Hormoz Asadi, Reza Rahimzadeh, Hamid Noshad, Gholamreza Rastjo, Elham Rezaie, Hassan Alipour, Mehrzad Allahgholipour, Farhad Kheiri Sanami Pages 131-165
    Introduction

    The commercialization of knowledge and technology, as a link between research and the market, is an effort to monetize innovation, which is currently highly regarded in the knowledge-based economy. The main purpose of this research was to identify the challenges of commercialization of agricultural research achievements in the field of agricultural sciences as well as the strategies to facilitate and accelerate their commercialization. 

    Materials and Methods

    The statistical population of this study consisted of all faculty members of research institutes related to agricultural sciences in Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO) (N=263) and the chief executive officers (CEOs) of companies contracted with the concerned research institutions (N=91). This descriptive-correlation study was conducted in 2021 using survey method. Questionnaire was used to collect data. The collected data were analyzed using exploratory factor analysis technique by principal component analysis method and the most important challenges as well as strategies to facilitate the commercialization of knowledge and technology in the agricultural sector were identified, classified and prioritized. 

    Results and Discussion

    Challenges in the development of commercialization of research achievements of AREEO from the perspective of the studied researchers and faculty members of the institutions were identified and categorized in seven factors, including: "the nature of technologies", "weaknesses in laws, regulations and government support policies", "weaknesses in the education system", "weaknesses in the policy, management and manpower of institutions and centers", "weak information structure and interaction with the private sector", "AREEO's weak commercialization policy", and " feeling unnecessary thr need for commercialization". Commercialization challenges of the AREEO's research achievements in the field of crop sciences identified from the perspective of CEOs of private companies were categorized into six factors including: "weaknesses in government support policies, laws and regulations", "weak information structure and interaction with the private sector", "nature of technologies", "restrictions on the activities of international companies in Iran", "weakness in capability of private companies" and "AREEO's weak commercialization policies". The strategies to facilitate the commercialization of research achievements were also categorized in six factors, including: "strengthening the information system and increasing interaction with the market and the private sector", "strengthening the commercialization capacity of technologies", "strengthening government support for commercialization", "human resource development and organizational structure in institutions", "private sector support to increase their investment" and "revision of the AREEO's commercialization policies". The strategies suggested by the respondents were also grouped in four factors, including: "strengthening government support for commercialization", "strengthening the information system and increasing interaction with the market and the private sector", "strengthening the commercialization of technologies" and "participating in the empowerment of private companies". 

    Conclusions

    Increasing communication and interaction between AREEO as a public organization with the active companies in agriculture, in addition to aligning the market needs with the research conducted in the public sector, can also lead to an increase in the productivity of research in the public sector. In addition, the removal of internal obstacles of production and commercialization, and the improved business environment are among the necessary government supports for the development of commercialization of research activities. Finally, suggestions were proposed and discussed to improve the commercialization of research achievements based on the identified challenges.

    Keywords: commercialization, technology, Technical Knowledge, Research Achievements
  • Sepideh Ravasizadeh, Vahideh Ansari *, Habibollah Salami, Gholamreza Peykani Pages 167-198
    Introduction

    Among the critically forbidden plains of Tehran province, Varamin plain is more critical. The agricultural sector in this plain consumes more than 80 percent of the underground water resources. In the Varamin plain, most farmers tend to use traditional irrigation methods such as flood and leaky irrigation to irrigate their lands. According to economists, the reason for the low efficiency of irrigation and the loss of water resources in this sector, which has led to the current situation of the Varamin plain, is the low price of water compared to the other inputs. Therefore, it is essential to review the current method of water pricing and determine the reasonable water price in this plain. So, this study was conducted to answer these questions: What is the economic value of water in the Varanin plain? How can a change in water price affect the crop pattern and the farmers' profit? What are the responses of farmers to changing the price of this input? How much can a rise in water prices save the water input? Answering these questions can be a step towards modifying the pattern of water consumption in the Varamin plain. Therefore, this study aimed at calculating the economic value of the water and then, analyzing the impact of an increase in water price on farmers' reactions and the crop pattern in the Varamin plain.

    Materials and Methods

    The economic value of water was estimated through two methods calculating the residual value by subtracting the cost of all inputs except water from the income for each product and evaluating the shadow price of water using Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP). Then, the impacts of water price changes on the crop pattern, water consumption, and farmers' profits were estimated using PMP model. The water demand function and water elasticity also were estimated by a stepwise increase of 5 percent in the water price in the third stage of the PMP model. The required data was collected by completing 120 questionnaires using the stratified sampling method and proportional allocation from the farmers of three cities in the Varamin plain including Varamin, Pishva and Pakdasht in the cropping year of 2019-2020. The data were collected for six crops (wheat, barley, corn, alfalfa, cucumber, and tomato), including the quantity and price of production and the quantity and price of inputs (land, seed, fertilizers, pesticide, water, labor, and machinery) in the concerned cities.  

    Conclusions

    The weighted average of each cubic meter of water using the residual value as well as the shadow price methods were equal to 35769.8 and 23917.6 IRI rials, respectively. This result shows a big difference between the economic value and the price paid by farmers, which is between seven to ten-folds. The results of estimating the demand function of water showed that the water demand elasticity was equal to zero up to the price of 27386.1 IRI rials. At higher prices, the farmers responded to the increase in water price, and the elasticity of water demand was equal to -2.15 on average. Based on the results, the shadow price of water obtained from PMP model (23917.6 IRI rials) does not affect the crop pattern and the water consumption, although it reduces farmers' profit by 48.66 percent. The economic price of water obtained using residual value method (23917.6 IRI rials) causes a decrease of 36.84 percent in the cultivated area, a 25.24 percent reduction in the water consumption, and a 74.59 percent reduction in the profit. Most of the change in the cultivated area was related to barley. Although, this crop consumes less water per hectare than other crops, the share of water cost per kilogram of barley is higher than the other products. After barley, the cultivated area of wheat, alfalfa, corn, cucumber, and tomato would respectively decrease for the same reason.

    Results and Discussion

    The results showed that applying the policy of increasing the price of water up to its economic value led to a decrease in farmers' profits and might reduce their motivation in production. In addition, applying this policy suddenly can lead to adverse reactions such as resistance and avoidance of paying this water price, social tensions, and public discontent. Therefore, gradually adjusting and increasing water prices for a long time was suggested. By adopting this policy, gradually, agricultural water consumption would decrease, and the cropping pattern would shift toward water-saving crops.

    Keywords: Agricultural Water Demand, Agricultural Water Price, Crop Pattern, Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), Varamin (Plain)
  • Ahmad Samdeliri * Pages 199-225
    Introduction

    Designing hypothetical markets and utilizing stated preference models, such as the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), to assess the value of non-market services provided by natural and environmental resources is accompanied by various problems. These problems can be broadly categorized into two groups according to Williams (2016). Firstly, there are challenges related to the initial stage of study design, which occurs before estimating the econometric model. Secondly, there are problems related to selecting, estimating, and interpreting the results derived from the models. These challenges include selecting the appropriate model type, conducting estimations and ultimately, interpreting the results correctly (Williams, 2016).

    Materials and Methods

    In natural resource valuation research, logistic models are commonly employed in various forms including ordinary logistic regression, conditional logistic regression, ordered logistic regression, multinomial logistic regression, as well as other forms like mixed logit and nested logit (Baker and Ruting, 2014; Greene, 2018). This study thoroughly analyzed the interpretability of logistic regression in the normal logistic mode and it was preferred using the risk ratio index over the odd ratio index, because it was found to be more practical. However, the study mainly aimed at calculating the extent of changes in the probability of an event occurring, rather than representing its multiplication. This notion was quantified and articulated through the concept of marginal effect. In the studies conducted in Iran, the values of marginal effect were typically measured and expressed based on the average level of the considered independent input and the average of other independent inputs in the model. In addition, however, the marginal effect concept for each independent variable can be measured and expressed in three different ways (Williams, 2020): 1) Marginal Effect at the Means (the means of independent variables) (MEMs), 2) Average Marginal Effects (AMEs), and 3) Marginal Effects at Representative Values of independent variable (MERs). To calculate the marginal effect in each case, the Adjusted Prediction (AP) index should be calculated. This index is measured in three different ways, depending on the type of marginal effects used in the calculation (Williams, 2020): 1) Adjusted Predictions at the Means (APMs) (Means of Independent Variables), 2) Average Adjusted Predictions, and 3) Adjusted Predictions at Representative Values of Independent Variables. To assess the recreational value of Avidar Lake in Nowshahr County of Iran, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) and the One-and-One-Half Bound (OOHB) model were used. During the summer season of 2019, a total of 270 questionnaires were filled out. The odds ratio, risk ratio and marginal effects Indexes were estimated by Eviews software. 

    Results and Discussion

    The study findings indicated slight variations in the calculations of Marginal Effects of Means (MEMs) and Average Marginal Effects (AMEs). Furthermore, the results of Marginal Effects at Representative Levels (MERs) calculations demonstrated changes in the marginal effect values of independent variables across different levels of these variables. The average amount that the users were willing to pay for each leisure visit to Avidar Lake was determined as 334900 IRI rials by integrating the area under the curve of visitors' demand. Additionally, the annual recreational value of the lake was calculated to be 8650 million IRI rials. This value would reflect the economic potential of Avidar Lake in terms of creating recreational opportunities. 

    Conclusions

    Based on the study findings and to enhance its applicability in real-world scenarios and improve its effectiveness in practical policies, it is recommended that studies focusing on the assessment of natural resources and the environment prioritize the calculation of comprehensive outcome indicators using the specific details outlined in this study. More specifically, the study results demonstrate that evaluating the average result across various levels of variable values (rather than solely considering the average value) can effectively capture and illustrate the diverse impacts resulting from policy implementation at these different levels (in terms of the intensity of change impact).

    Keywords: Interpretability of Coefficient, Contingent Valuation, Logit model, Avidar lake, Nowshahr (County)
  • Fatemeh Askari-Bozayeh *, Noor Mohammad Abyar, MohammadReza Abbasi Mojdehi Pages 227-255
    Introduction

    Investing in agricultural research is one of the main factors in increasing agricultural productivity, which has significant effects on economic growth, poverty alleviation, and food security. Despite the role of agricultural research, the evidence shows that the public sector agricultural research systems, especially in developing countries, have shortage of resources over recent decades and faced the challenge of financing the agricultural research projects. In such circumstances, documenting the benefits of agricultural research is a primary requirement for an appropriate level of public support. In this research, the economic impact assessment of research activities in Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center of Guilan province in Iran was examined. 

    Materials and Methods

    In the first place, the economic surplus analysis approach was used to evaluate the economic impact of the research activities of the investigated center. This approach uses a market framework in which the achievement of research (knowledge or technology) causes a shift in the supply curve, so that the economic benefits as a surplus accrued to producers and consumers, resulting from changes in price and quantity (value) product are calculated; therefore, it becomes possible to determine the return on investment in a research by calculating the increase in the economic surplus (welfare) of producers and consumers during the application of its achievements. 

    Results and Discussion

    Based on the findings of the research, the internal rate of return of the research activities of the Guilan center was 49 percent on average, which is lower than the rate of 81.3 percent reported by some studies (eg Alston et al., 2010); but it is in line with the reported results of some other studies (eg Fuglie and Heisey, 2007) that recorded the major returns of the research under review between 20 and 60 percent. The average benefit-cost ratio of the investigated research activities of Guilan center was 6.7 and its minimum and maximum were 0 and 52, respectively. In other words, in this research center, some research projects lacked efficiency and economic benefits. The Net Present Value (NPV) of the benefits of the investigated research activities of the Guilan center during the acceptance period of their findings amounted to 853611025002 IRI rials. The research departments of animal science, agriculture and horticulture, plant protection, technical and engineering, and soil and water with the average benefit-cost ratios of 11.4, 8.5, 5.1, 3.3 and 3.1, respectively, had the highest to lowest returns and appeared to be economic usefulness and their research activities were generally justified and profitable. The average economic return or cost-benefit ratio of research departments was calculated as 6.7, indicating that with each IRI rial allocated to research activities, an average of 6.7 IRI rials of efficiency and economic effectiveness would be achieved; considering the global average obtained by the former mentioned study (Alston et al., 2010) of $ 32, it seemed to be underestimated. 

    Conclusions

    In general, the research activities of Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center of Guilan province have the economic return and effectiveness, but these are relatively less than the average in the world.

    Keywords: economic impact assessment, economic surplus analysis, Benefit-Cost ratio, Internal Rate of Return, Guilan (Province)
  • Mahdiyeh Saei *, Hasan Asadpour Pages 257-291
    Introduction
    Fruit and vegetable marketing system in Iran has been very inefficient and has caused dissatisfaction on both sides of the market, i.e. consumers and producers. Citrus fruits, as the first horticultural product with the production of 5.6 million tons, have accounted for 23 percent of the country's total horticultural production. Iran's share of the global citrus production is 3.7 percent and ranks the seventh in the world, but its share in the global export of citrus fruits is less than 0.25 percent and ranks the 31st in the world. The south region of Kerman has the third place in the country with the cultivated area of about 33 thousand hectares and the production of 587 thousand tons of citrus fruits. If we separate the citrus fruits of this region into their different types, the region ranks the second in orange production and cultivated area after Mazandaran, and the third in lime production and cultivated area in the country after Fars and Hormozgan provinces. Considering the importance of creating a citrus value chain in improving the marketing system and the sustainability of production and export, this research tried to find the best structure of the citrus value chain among the commercial models in the world according to the condition of the region and the economic, socio-cultural, and structural components. 
    Materials and Methods
    In this research, the method of completing the questionnaire was used to prepare the required information by holding briefing sessions and training workshops for elites and experts related to citrus production and trade in the region. In order to analyze the data, calculate the weight of criteria and sub-criteria and achieve the best citrus value chain model, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used. In the first place, four main criteria and 21 related sub-criteria were identified by examining the types of business models in the value chain. After collecting the data through the AHP method, these criteria were prioritized in terms of their importance. 
    Results and Discussion
    The results from analyzing the matrix of pairwise comparisons of four economic, environmental, structural and socio-cultural criteria as the main criteria in choosing the best citrus value chain model in the south region of Kerman province from the elites' point of view revealed that the economic criterion was the most important criterion with a weight of 0.361 in choosing the best model; in addition, the citrus value chain played the main role and the environmental, structural and socio-cultural criteria were ranked the second, third and fourth in importance, respectively. In another part of this research, the importance of 21 sub-criteria were investigated and prioritized based on their relative weights in choosing the regional citrus value chain model. Among the seven components of the economic criterion, "specialization and mechanization of the production system" and "productivity", among the five components of the socio-cultural criterion, the components of "creating trust in the people" and "investment security", among the three components of the environmental criterion, the components of "preservation of water and soil resources" and "plant health standards" and finally, among the six components of the structural criteria, the components of "supplying energy and water" and "developing product funds" played the main roles as the most important components in the selection of the citrus value chain model in the south region of Kerman province. If all of the studied four criteria and 21 sub-criteria were considered together, among the four business models in the value chain, the "market maker" model would be the best option with the highest relative weight (0.427) and the "layer player" model would be the last one and the least important option with a relative weight of 0.09; in addition, "integrator" and "orchestrator" models were ranked as the second and third with relative weights of 0.297 and 0.186, respectively. The evaluation results from the pairwise comparisons of the mentioned criteria were estimated with an inconsistency rate of 0.04, which proves the compatibility and reliability of the elites' judgments. Therefore, the "market maker" model can be emphasized by planners and policymakers as the best and first priority of the citrus value chain model in the south Kerman province.
    Keywords: Citrus, analytical hierarchy process (AHP), South Region of Kerman (Province), Value chain models
  • Mahdi Soufizadeh, Fataneh Yarahmadi *, Seyedeh Masoumeh Hosseini Fard Pages 293-314
    Introduction
    Due to the industrialization of societies, urban life, and the increase in demand for agricultural products, the distance between producers and consumers led to the formation of groups to establish communication links between food producers and consumers. This was the beginning of the formation of the marketing of agricultural products in the world. Efficient marketing of agricultural products will increase the income of rural people, which considering the key role of income in the stability of the rural economy, will indirectly increase the level of well-being and quality of life of the rural households. Lorestan province of Iran has 780 thousand hectares of arable land. But unfortunately, due to the lack of sufficient knowledge in the field of marketing and branding in the agricultural industry of this province, the products produced by farmers are either traditionally sold through local bazaars or sent to the markets of other provinces through brokers and intermediaries. Therefore, this aimed at identifying the existing obstacles to the development and progress of agricultural product marketing in this province.
    Materials and Methods
     This was an applied study and the analytical-descriptive method was used to identify and prioritize the obstacles affecting the marketing of agricultural products in Lorestan province. The data and information of the research were collected in two ways of documents and surveys. The statistical population of the research included nine experts and professionals in the field of production, marketing, and sale of agricultural products in the concerned province. Also, the opinions of these experts were obtained to give weight to each of the indicators in the form of a questionnaire and face-to-face interview. Those who were among authorities tended to present their judgments in the form of a range instead of a fixed and specific value, the reason for this issue can be seen in the human nature and mental dispersion of the responsible people when making decisions. Therefore, what management science researchers paid special attention to in the 80s was the impact of qualitative criteria along with quantitative criteria in their conclusions and decisions. This effort led to the creation of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and then, Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method. In this research, the improved FAHP method was used for data analysis. In the first method, indicators are determined using different methods. After that, a questionnaire is prepared and the experts answer it, then fuzzy numbers are used to check the opinions of the experts. 
    Findings
    As mentioned earlier, in this research, library resources were used to identify the indicators (obstacles) in the marketing of agricultural products. Thus, after many studies, 17 indicators were identified as effective indicators in the appropriate marketing of agricultural products, which were grouped into three main indicators of market structure and environmental, financial, and cultural factors. In the next step, questionnaires were prepared and given to the experts who were members of the statistical community of this study; and after completing these questionnaires, data analysis was done and the following results were obtained: Barriers (index) of market structure and environmental factors have seven sub-factors (sub-index). In this sub-index, lack of access to proper transportation was identified as the most important factor with a weight of 0.140. Financial barriers (index) have four sub-factors (sub-index). The results of the pairwise comparison of indicators related to financial obstacles showed that indicators of lack of sufficient capital for marketing and Lack of financial support from related institutions were identified as the first and second priorities in terms of importance with weights of 0.072 and 0.057. Cultural barriers (index) have six sub-factors (sub-index). For this index, after analyzing the data, it was found that the factors of farmers' lack of self-confidence and lack of marketing skills with weights of 0.057 and 0.053 had the most impact among the indicators of cultural barriers. Now, if we want to compare all the obstacles identified for the marketing of agricultural products in Lorestan province according to the weight of each of them, we will conclude that the index of lack of access to proper transportation with a weight of 0.140 is known as the most important factor among all the effective factors in the research. After this index, the indicators of the presence of middlemen and brokers with a weight of 0.103, and the lack of suitable facilities for packaging products with a weight of 0.080 took the next priorities.Discussion and
    Conclusion
    Marketing is one of the most important activities that commercial organizations face. For this reason, in this research, the obstacles affecting the marketing of agricultural products in Lorestan province were investigated and prioritized. After analyzing the collected data, it was found that lack of access to proper transportation was the most important factor affecting the marketing of agricultural products in this province. According to the results of this research, it is suggested that the government, rural cooperatives, and non-governmental organizations implement policies to reduce the adverse effects of the factors identified in this research on the marketing of agricultural products so that by doing this, farmers' income would increase significantly. In addition to the stability of rural communities, we can witness the strengthening of the foundations of rural households and sometimes the reduction of social problems among them.
    Keywords: Marketing, Agricultural Products, Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP)