نشریه آمایش سرزمین
سال شانزدهم شماره 1 (بهار و تابستان 1403)

In recent years, different foresight programs have frustrated urban and regional planning with environmental forecasting methods and have been driven to use the tools of building a favorable future. On the other hand, in today's world where the notion of sustainability has become a necessity in urban and regional planning, the trend towards sustainable and balanced spatial development has become increasingly important around the world. One of the major challenges is considered in regional planning and policy-making. The present study considers identifying and extracting the key factors affecting the spatial development of Mazandaran province by using the structural analysis process in scenario planning. In the first step, 35 factors were identified as a set of factors affecting the spatial development of this province, based on recognizing the current situation of the province and reviewing related theoretical and experimental texts, existing documents, and programs. Then, the cross-impact analysis matrix was formed, and to identify and determine the relationships between these factors, the expert panel method was used with the presence of 10 experts who scored each of these factors. In the next step, the consensus of the experts' opinions was calculated using the weighted average method, and its implementation was carried out in the MIC MAC software. Finally, 16 factors were extracted as key factors affecting the spatial development of Mazandaran province in the year of the horizon, 12 factors were in the economic sector, 9 factors were in the socio-demographic, 11 factors were in the environmental and 3 factors were in the physical-spatial, and they will form the foundation of planning for the future of a sustainable space in this province.

One of the challenges of the space governance system in Iran is the confusion in the organizational culture of guiding in the areas of decision-making and decision-making. This confusion has always shown itself in the emergence of political planning and physical-spatial divisions in the field of spatial planning of the country. To explain the need for a paradigm shift in the culture of guiding Iran's spatial governance system, this research has tried to apply an exploratory approach and a mixed method in the form of a semi-structured interview. In the form of a targeted Delphi method, to identify and propose leadership models for Iran's spatial governance system at three local, regional, and national levels. The obtained results show that the spatial governance system in Iran requires a transition to strategic leadership in the decision-making system to change the paradigm in the guiding culture at the national level. At the regional level, the charismatic leadership model and, at the local level, the transformational leadership model are the proposed models for changing the guiding culture of the aforementioned levels in Iran's spatial governance system. This research shows the importance of transformation in the guiding culture of the space governance system in Iran as one of the most important solutions in achieving integration and understanding the importance of overcoming functional, political-planning and physical-spatial divisions in the process of moving towards sustainable spatial planning.

Housing prices are one of the indicators that identify the factors affecting it and could help to increase the efficiency of plans and to present housing planning strategies and policies. Despite many exchange rate fluctuations in recent years, there is a need to create a model that pays attention to the economic factors affecting housing prices in addition to the ordinary housing features. Since the housing price modeling is one of the issues that has a spatial component, therefore, in presenting the model related to housing prices, its location should also be considered. Therefore, in this study, the analysis of the spatial distribution of housing prices in district 5 of Tehran municipality and the factors affecting that have been investigated. In this regard, housing sales data in this region in 2018, 2019, and 2020 have been used to model housing prices. The research results have been obtained by the Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) method, which provided better results compared to those by both the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) methods. The adjusted coefficient of determination in OLS, GWR, and MGWR algorithms was obtained equal to 0.762, 0.821, and 0.853, respectively. The MGWR method is one of the methods that can model the spatial heterogeneity of housing price data. According to the results, the exchange rate variable (dollar price) has the greatest impact on housing price modeling.

Urban recreation, as a comprehensive approach, includes all stakeholders and influential factors in tourism, the purpose of this research is to evaluate and identify the effective drivers of recreation on urban tourism in the city of Ilam with an approach in terms of practical purpose and terms of method. Descriptive-analytical research is based on library and field studies. To identify the conceptual indicators explaining the main drivers of urban recreation and tourism, a targeted Delphi method was used. The sample size is experts and specialists related to the research topic (30 people). The current research has analyzed the recreation and tourism components of Ilam City using the cross-effects analysis technique and the Micmac program. The path analysis test using the Smart PlS structural equation model was used to analyze the data. The findings from the prioritization results showed the effective dimensions in the recreation of tourism in Ilam City; The physical dimension(4.354) ranks first, the socio-cultural dimension(2.607) ranks second, the environmental dimension(2.545) and the economic dimension (2.464) rank next. Finally, according to the results related to the analysis of cross effects in identifying the effective drivers of recreation on the future of tourism in Ilam City, 6 key factors (social relations, performance, welfare facilities and services, infrastructures and facilities, economic and vitality)were identified; What comes out of this research shows the strong effect of recreation on the realization of successful tourism in this city. Considering the intermingling of components and indicators of the concept of urban recreation, its role in various aspects of urban tourism and its future in Ilam City is undeniable.

Considering the importance of small businesses in the country's economy, clusters can provide a suitable platform for the sustainability of tourism destinations due to their many relative and competitive advantages. Therefore, the current research aims to explain the spatial clustering of small businesses in tourist villages. This research has been done in a descriptive survey method, which is based on a survey of experts and stakeholders. The statistical population of the study (including 128 villages with 189 ecotourism Ecolodges in the 9th Territorial Region (North, Razavi, and South Khorasan). According to the personal estimation method, 20% of the volume of the statistical population was used as a basis, which finally determined the number of 26 villages. Data analysis was done using GIS software. The results of the multi-criteria analysis technique showed that the villages of Namagh, Mazinan, Zaferanieh, Arzeneh, and Karimo have stronger potential than the other villages studied, and the results of the Gutman model showed that the villages of Kang, Zafaranieh, Khorashad, Firouze, and Ruyin have They are at a high level in terms of wealth compared to other studied villages. Also, the characteristics of small rural business clusters were examined and the results showed that small rural tourism businesses in the region do not have geographical and sectoral concentration, in terms of internal and external linkages, horizontal communication and the vertical between rural small businesses and other businesses has been excellent in most cases and poor in some cases.