اعظم سادات اطیابی

The purpose of this article is to investigate the non-linear effect of the central bank's intervention index, taking into account credit risk, on the profitability of commercial banks in the country's banking network. For this purpose, the panel model with a threshold approach (PSTR) has been used based on the annual data of banks admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2010 to 2019. Based on the estimation results of the model in the linear part for banks admitted to the stock exchange in the first, second and third models; The growth of banking facilities, the size of the bank and the intervention of the central bank have a significant effect on profitability. Due to the confirmation of the nonlinearity of the model by the test (LM), the analysis of this part of the model has more validity. The estimation results of the non-linear part of the model (second regime) also show the existence of a significant effect of the variables; The growth of banking facilities, bank size, credit risk and central bank intervention in all three models have an effect on banks' profitability. So that for one percent increase in the growth of banking facilities, respectively; The rate of return on assets in the first model is -0.02, the rate of return on equity in the second model is -0.03, and the net interest income in the third model decreases and increases by 0.07. The increase in the intervention of the central bank has also led to a decrease in the profitability of commercial banks. Therefore, it is suggested that commercial banks act through measures such as reviewing and correcting the inhibiting factors and the speed of action in collecting existing receivables in order to reduce non-current receivables, merging the unprofitable bank with the profitable and successful bank, etc.

In the present study, in the first stage, the central bank's policy intervention index and foreign exchange market pressure were calculated, and then, using gentle transfer regression (STR), the effect of central bank intervention on the profitability of the country's commercial banks was investigated. According to the model results; In 24 of the 30 years surveyed, the country's economy has faced increasing pressure from the foreign exchange market. In other words, between 1370 and 1399, the central bank's intervention activities eliminated an average of 24% of the foreign exchange market pressure. Also, the results of STR model estimation show the positive effect of economic growth rate variable on bank profitability and the negative effects of central bank intervention, stock return rate, credit risk, inflation rate and interest rate on the profitability of commercial banks. The negative coefficient of the central bank intervention index can indicate that the central bank, in the face of increasing positive deviations in the exchange rate, is pursuing a decline in the growth of its foreign reserves. In other words, with a further increase in the supply of foreign exchange in the market, its value decreases and the exchange rate return to its long-term path. On the other hand, if there is a negative deviation in the exchange rate of the central bank, by increasing the volume of foreign reserves and reducing the supply in the foreign exchange market, it can increase this rate and approach its long-term path, which is in line with existing theories. This is the context.